NFL 2018

C

caboto13

Pretty much a regular
Browns RSW under 5,5 +110 2,5 units

Schedule
PIT
@NO
NYJ
@OAK
BAL
LAC
@TB
@PIT
KC
ATL
@CIN
@HOU
CAR
@DEN
CIN
@BAL
Which 6 games can the Browns win?

Let's say the Browns get a maximum of two wins in their division. Maybe against the Steelers Week 1 or vs. BAL. I do think 0-6 ist more probable than 2-4, but we'll see. So you have to find 4 other games the Browns have a chance to win. OTR maybe at Tampa or at Oakland. Maybe at Baltimore Week 17 with BAL resting startes. Unlikely but who knows. Assume they manage two wins in these three games, which seems the best case. At the other games OTR I don't give them a chance (NO, PIT, CIN, HOU, DEN). You need another two wins at home against non-division opponents: NJY, LAC, KC, ATL, CAR. Ok, the Browns could win against the Jets, but the other oponents are out of reach in my opinion. Often said here at CTG: the Browns are 1-31 the last 32 games.

Of course this bet might lose, but I'm willing to pay for it. Missed the under 6, but don't think it will come into play.

Playing 1 to 5 units bets trying to reach +15.
 
Week 1

PHI-ATL under 45 @-110 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Can't touch a side with Falcons now PK. Expect a 20-17 type of game with rusty offenses and good defences. More a gut play than based on facts. Think Falcons win.
 
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1-0 +1 so far

Bengals ML @ +109 2 units to win 2,18 units
Missed a better number for the ML or +3, initial thought was Bengals because of Lucks first game after a long break and after nearly every solid or good capper here seems to be on the Bengals, I simply tail the most of you.

Ravens / Saints / Packers ML parlay @+103 2 units to win 2,06 units
Take the better qb at home against imo low-level opponents. Mack might help the Bears but not at primetime at Lambeau Field against Rodgers after last seasons injury desaster. Maybe they can keep it close, but would be sursprised, if they get a W.

Giants - Jaguars under 42,5 @-110 1,1 units to win 1 unit
Strong defense of the Jaguars should hold the Giants under 17 and don't think their offense will put more than 24.
 
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For fun:
Parlay: BAL -10.5 / NO -12.5 / LAC-KC over 48.5 / CIN -4.5 / MIA -3.5 @5376 0,25 units to win 13,44 units
 
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3-2 +1.93 units
Singles 3-0 +4.18
Parlays 0-2 -2.25

Can't believe how the Browns managed not to win this game.. good for my RSW under
 
Week 1: 5-2 +3.93 units
Singles 4-0 +5.18
Parlays 1-2 -1.25

Saints loss ruined a perfect week 1. Anyway. Take a good start with a profit, try to continue.
 
CIN - BAL: CIN +7 & under 50 @100 1 unit to win 1 unit

Expect a tight game with defenses dominating. Something like 21-17 oder 24-21. Think Cincy wins, but feel not strong enough to take the ML.
 
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Week 2: 0-1 -1.00 units
Singles: 0-1 -1.00

Redskins / Steelers / Broncos ML Parlay @+178 2 units to win 3,56 units
Better teams with better or equal quarterback and HFA. Last week Saints ruined parlay of favs, try it another time.

Bills +6.5 @+104 1 unit to win 1,04 units
Cardinals +13,5 @+100 1 unit to win 1 units

Think it's a bad spot for the Chargers, missed the 7, but hope, Bills will keep it close.
 
Redskins -6,5 @-103 2 units to win 1,94 units

Falcons / 49ers / Saints ML parlay @137 1 unit to win 1,37 units

For fun: ATL -8,5 / PIT over 51,5 / BUF over 39,5 / SF -5,5 / DEN -9,5 / TEN ML / MIA -2,5 @1760,13 0,25 units to win 44,3 units
 
Bad read on most of the games. Last ones:

SF/DET over 49,5 @100 1 unit to win 1 unit
DEN -6.5 @-101 2 units to win 1,98 units
JAX ML @118 1 unit to win 1,18 units
DEN / LAR / SF ML parlay @111 1 unit to win 1,11 units
 
Sorry. Hit Report instead if Post reply. Don't know what Report means. Please ignore.

Should mean Correction: Played the Denver game for 1 unit.
 
Week 1: 5-2 +3.93 units
Singles 4-0 +5.18
Parlays 1-2 -1.25
Week 2: 5-9 -6,63 units
Singles: 3-7 -6,86 units
Parlays: 2-2 +0,23 units

Overall: 10-11 -2,7 units
Open bet: Browns under 5,5 wins: 5 units to win 6,08 units

Learned the lesson: less games, trying to be selective. The Browns might be not that bad and the Chiefs might be really good.
 
Parlay : Ravens / Vikings / Leverkusen (German Soccer Bundesliga) @139 2 units to win 2.78 units

Ravens better team imo with better qb at home. Vikings won't lose at home against these bills and Leverkusen with three losses to start the Bundesliga but won on the road at Rasgrad in Europa League. Should boost motivation and confidence to win at home against mediocre Mainz 05.

ML Parlay: Dolphins / Pats @112 2 units to win 2.24 units

Raiders earlys game OTR at East Coast against good Fins team and I do not think that Patricias Lions can shock Belichick and Brady after a loss.
 
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Ravens -5,5 @-116 3,48 units to win 3 units

For fun: GB ML / HOU-NYG under 43,5 / KC-SF over 54,5 / NO ML / BUF under 13,5 / PHI-IND over 47,5 / CIN +4.5 @7848 0,25 units to win 19,62 units
 
Packers -2,5 @-105 2,1 units to win 2 units

Depending on the outcome of the early games maybe Seahawks and Pats ATS later. Godd luck.
 
Bucs ML @-112 2.5 unit freebet to win 2.1 units

Bookie has some offers because of the German Octoberfest. Today a riskfree bet of 2.5 units according to my unit size. Took the Bucs because on paper they seem to be the better team like the Vikings or the Pats which probably means Big Ben throws 5 td and Fitzpatrick will be the old Fitzpatrick and Steelers win 48-10....sarcasm off.
 
Week 1: 5-2 +3.93 units
Singles 4-0 +5.18
Parlays 1-2 -1.25
Week 2: 5-9 -6,63 units
Singles: 3-7 -6,86 units
Parlays: 2-2 +0,23 units
Week 3: 2-6 -4,59 units
Singles: 2-3 -0,34 units
Parlays: 0-3 -4,25 units


Overall: 12-17 -7,29 units
Open bet: Browns under 5,5 wins: 5 units to win 6,08 units

Lesson learned: Don't play any ML -1000 or larger in parlays.
 
Good start, but obvoiusly bad plays on the late games. Add another:

BAL +3 @-109 1.09 u to win 1 unit.

Made at least almost 4 units profit, so not a bad day at all. Maybe OAK and LAC come from behind to win and cover. Will check in the morning (local time).
 
Week 1: 5-2 +3.93 units / Singles 4-0 +5.18 / Parlays 1-2 -1.25
Week 2: 5-9 -6,63 units / Singles: 3-7 -6,86 units / Parlays: 2-2 +0,23 units
Week 3: 2-6 -4,59 units / Singles: 2-3 -0,34 units / Parlays: 0-3 -4,25 units
Week 3: 4-1-1 +8,00 units / Singles: 4-1-1 +8,00 units / Parlays: -

Overall: 16-18-1 +0,71 units
Open bet: Browns under 5,5 wins: 5 units to win 6,08 units
 
Week 1: 5-2 +3.93 units / Singles 4-0 +5.18 / Parlays 1-2 -1.25
Week 2: 5-9 -6,63 units / Singles: 3-7 -6,86 units / Parlays: 2-2 +0,23 units
Week 3: 2-6 -4,59 units / Singles: 2-3 -0,34 units / Parlays: 0-3 -4,25 units
Week 4: 5-1-1 +10,00 units / Singles: 5-1-1 +10,00 units / Parlays: -

Overall: 17-18-1 +2,71 units
Open bet: Browns under 5,5 wins: 5 units to win 6,08 units Browns are 1-2-1 after four games, so they have to win 5 of 12 to beat my bet.
 
Packers ML @-108 1.08u to win 1u

I know Rodgers has some issues with questionable receivers, but still think they are a superior team with the better quarterback and I simply think the Packers ML at this number is a must-play in a division game.

Maybe Dolphins but can only get +5.5. Still waiting. Think Raiders can keep it close, as Chargers have a bad ATS record at home as a fav. Have to look it up.
 
Packers ML @-108 1.08u to win 1u
Add:
Dolphins +6,5 @-133 1.33u to win 1u
Ravens -3 @-116 3,48u to win 3u
Jets ML @-105 1,05u to win 1u
Fun parlay BUF over 39.5 / CAR -6.5 / PIT over 55,5 / OAK +4.5 / MIN +3,5 / ARI +4,5 @3565 0,5u to win 18,35u
 
Week 1: 5-2 +3.93 units / Singles 4-0 +5.18 / Parlays 1-2 -1.25
Week 2: 5-9 -6,63 units / Singles: 3-7 -6,86 units / Parlays: 2-2 +0,23 units
Week 3: 2-6 -4,59 units / Singles: 2-3 -0,34 units / Parlays: 0-3 -4,25 units
Week 4: 5-1-1 +10,00 units / Singles: 5-1-1 +10,00 units / Parlays: -
Week 5: 4-5 -2,14 units / Singles: 3-4 -3,92 units / Parlays: 1-1 +1,78 units

Overall: 21-23-1 +0,57 units
Open bet: Browns under 5,5 wins: 5 units to win 6,08 units Browns are 2-2-1 after five games, so they have to win 4 of 11 to beat my bet.
 
Vikings -10.5 @-102 3.06u to win 3u

Think (hope) the Vikings will have the Bills-game in mind an come out focused to get an easy win (as easy as a win can be in the NFL). Rookie qb on the road against one of the best defense, which can force turnovers. See a 31-10 win without a late backdoor cover. More later.
 
Fun parlay: ATL -2,5 / CIN over 50,5 / HOU over 40,5 / MIN TT over 27,5 / NYJ under 47,5 / OAK +4,5 / DEN under 51,5 @5132 0,5u to win 25,66u
 
NYJ -2.5 @-111 1.11u to win 1u

Bought off CHI -6.5 @-125 2.5u to win 2u
with Dolphins +6,5 @-123 2.46u to win 2u

so count it as no play for a loss of -0,5u
 
Sum up early games:
Vikings -10.5 @-102 3.06u to win 3u
Chargers ML @105 1,5u to win 1,51u
NYJ -2.5 @-111 1.11u to win 1u
Add: Steelers ML @109 2u to win 2.18u
Add: ATL TT over 31,5 @116 1u to win 1.16u
Add: CIN - PIT over 49,5 @-113 1.13u to win 1u


ML Parlay: Falcons / Pats/ Packers @203 2.5u to win 5.07u
Fun parlay: ATL -2,5 / CIN over 50,5 / HOU over 40,5 / MIN TT over 27,5 / NYJ under 47,5 / OAK +4,5 / DEN under 51,5 @5132 0,5u to win 25,66u
Add ML Parlay: Chargers / Vikings / Rams / Packers @294 0,5u to win 1,47u
 
So far -0.39 with two open parlays and two singles. F... the hook at the Vikings game and shouldn't have bought off the Dolphins with Osweiler. Anyway, still a chance to finish week 6 in green.
 
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