NFC First Round Discussion Thread

Philly-3 all day, already bet this cause actually expected it to be higher. I don’t see this all that much different than Seattle whipping niners at Los on both sides. Pretty confident Philly defensive front can control gm and think even Philly offense be fine vs Niners awful d.

Kinda like packers but don’t love it. Little scared of the charmed life bears been living all year but let’s be real. Packers kinda dominated bears for large portions of both games before bears did their late game voodoo. The 2nd meeting packers were totally beat to shit, love left game, and they never punted! They simply couldn’t finish drives with pretty much all backups. Bears d can’t stop a nose bleed, the only hope this d has is the weather turns really bad really fast!
 
2daBank said:
Philly-3 all day, already bet this cause actually expected it to be higher. I don’t see this all that much different than Seattle whipping niners at Los on both sides. Pretty confident Philly defensive front can control gm and think even Philly offense be fine vs Niners awful d.

Kinda like packers but don’t love it. Little scared of the charmed life bears been living all year but let’s be real. Packers kinda dominated bears for large portions of both games before bears did their late game voodoo. The 2nd meeting packers were totally beat to shit, love left game, and they never punted! They simply couldn’t finish drives with pretty much all backups. Bears d can’t stop a nose bleed, the only hope this d has is the weather turns really bad really fast!
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Yeah, this year wasn’t the year for the 9ers. A lot lines up for 2026 but this ain’t it. Playing injured on defense is an understatement. This is like playing with half your team as practice squad guys. And Trent and Ricky won’t be 100% but they’ll play. Philly sucks and the OL with Trent is one of the better units in football pass protection wise but who knows. Think Philly is the right side.
 
As a big fan of opening lines though I thought we’d see Philly -5.5 or higher. Line says 9ers a live dog.

When I saw Seattle open as a favorite I knew 9ers had no chance last night.
 
Inspekdah said:
Yeah, this year wasn’t the year for the 9ers. A lot lines up for 2026 but this ain’t it. Playing injured on defense is an understatement. This is like playing with half your team as practice squad guys. And Trent and Ricky won’t be 100% but they’ll play. Philly sucks and the OL with Trent is one of the better units in football pass protection wise but who knows. Think Philly is the right side.
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it remarkable they even got to this point, so many injuries all year. Ricky is never freaking healthy unfortunately, and trent just on his last legs I think, I kinda doubt either make it all gm playing philly. Throw on top they got physically mauled by Seattle playing to get that bye. I don’t particularly like Philly but think this about the best possible matchup for them and sets up really well.
 
2daBank said:
it remarkable they even got to this point, so many injuries all year. Ricky is never freaking healthy unfortunately, and trent just on his last legs I think, I kinda doubt either make it all gm playing philly. Throw on top they got physically mauled by Seattle playing to get that bye. I don’t particularly like Philly but think this about the best possible matchup for them and sets up really well.
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Trent has been the best OL in football again once he got his legs under him. His grades last half of the season were remarkable. He pulled this hammy for the first time in his career running after a pick 6. A fluke thing.

Ricky, spot on. Dude is just always hurt. Every play I feel like he’s questionable. Sucks because him and Glock Purdy have a nice connection.

Defensively. Defensively only. Hurts is the best QB the 9ers could have hoped for. They just can’t stop accurate pocket passers right now. Hurts sometimes can’t pass against anyone so maybe the Saleh makes him pick apart a soft zone. Who knows.
 
Inspekdah said:
Trent has been the best OL in football again once he got his legs under him. His grades last half of the season were remarkable. He pulled this hammy for the first time in his career running after a pick 6. A fluke thing.

Ricky, spot on. Dude is just always hurt. Every play I feel like he’s questionable. Sucks because him and Glock Purdy have a nice connection.

Defensively. Defensively only. Hurts is the best QB the 9ers could have hoped for. They just can’t stop accurate pocket passers right now. Hurts sometimes can’t pass against anyone so maybe the Saleh makes him pick apart a soft zone. Who knows.
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Oh Trent is awesome. Just saying he been awesome for a long long time. Seriously doubt he gonna be recovering quick from a pulled hammy playing on that turf in the cold. He prob makes as big a difference outside qb to any offense in the league.

The problem is I think Niners will have to sell out to stop the run, if Seattle can push the d around at the Los I think Philly can also. Think it becomes a pick your poison situation where they can’t possible stop those 2 WRs and the run game but I suppose it true hurts could just be awful.
 
2daBank said:
Oh Trent is awesome. Just saying he been awesome for a long long time. Seriously doubt he gonna be recovering quick from a pulled hammy playing on that turf in the cold. He prob makes as big a difference outside qb to any offense in the league.

The problem is I think Niners will have to sell out to stop the run, if Seattle can push the d around at the Los I think Philly can also. Think it becomes a pick your poison situation where they can’t possible stop those 2 WRs and the run game but I suppose it true hurts could just be awful.
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Also most important with this matchup isn’t Trent or Ricky.

But their LBs.

Bethune and Winters who are fringe roster guys are hurt.

Hendricks will have to play every snap. He hasn’t played football for more than a couple of weeks this year.
 
inZane said:
Forecast for Saturday's game in Chicago, is temps in the 30's, 70% chance of precip in the morning and then 20% for the game, with winds in the upper teens.
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Kinda baffled bears taking the early money. Not sure how I can get the 1st 2 games out my head, packers were clearly the better team in both despite playing a ton of backups in the 2nd. Maybe packers 1st half to avoid bears lockbox 4th qrtrs? There just no way I could see myself betting Chicago. Maybe packers team total over? Bears d is so freaking bad.
 
I like Carolina getting 10 at home. This falls into my system play. But hey, Rams could win easy, and put up a ton of points...Which their D has been doing... Giving up points...OVER 46.5
 
2daBank said:
Kinda baffled bears taking the early money. Not sure how I can get the 1st 2 games out my head, packers were clearly the better team in both despite playing a ton of backups in the 2nd. Maybe packers 1st half to avoid bears lockbox 4th qrtrs? There just no way I could see myself betting Chicago. Maybe packers team total over? Bears d is so freaking bad.
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Agree 100%. I felt dirty winning on the Bears in that second matchup. Only concerns here are Love’s health and Green Bay is not exactly peaking right now. Injuries derailed the Pack. I think a healthy Green Bay team would’ve made the SB.
 
C-MAN said:
Agree 100%. I felt dirty winning on the Bears in that second matchup. Only concerns here are Love’s health and Green Bay is not exactly peaking right now. Injuries derailed the Pack. I think a healthy Green Bay team would’ve made the SB.
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I’m not sure I even care if it love or Willis. I’ve seen both them and a slew of backups move the ball easily on bears.
 
A lot is being said about Chicago’s schedule, but Green Bay does not have a great resume either. A 2-4 record vs playoff teams beating Pit and Chi and losing to Chi, Car, Den and Phi (would have been 1-5 if Baltimore’s kicker could make a field goal 😉).
 
C-MAN said:
A lot is being said about Chicago’s schedule, but Green Bay does not have a great resume either. A 2-4 record vs playoff teams beating Pit and Chi and losing to Chi, Car, Den and Phi (would have been 1-5 if Baltimore’s kicker could make a field goal 😉).
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I honestly think sos incredibly overrated, pretty much all the good teams in nfl get fat off bad teams. You get into playoffs with double digit wins I think you pretty much belong. Saw something bout 8 easiest schedules ever all made playoffs and I think 6 of the 8 made the conf championship and several won SB.

I got 2 issues with bears this week, don’t like how they seemingly get down and have to come back late in every game. Probably more damning is I just can’t erase watching both those packers gms, I don’t even think it arguable packers were the better team for a huge portion of both. The 1st meeting they just roasted them with one big play after another. Obviously bears decided to prevent that the 2md meeting but it just resulted in packers methodically driving the field the entire gm, despite it being a fantastic spot for bears and then love getting knocked out early packers didn’t punt one time in that game! Yes they struggled to finish drives but they were playing with predominantly backups. Bears really had no business winning that gm or having a chance in the 1st.

That voodoo magic bears seem to have does scare me a bit but their d is just so bad, I like Caleb and think he gonna be a star but he can drive me nuts missing easy drive extending throws and the countless amount of times he rolls out and throws the ball 10 yards out of bounds over the course of the game. I think this season gonna be a building block for bears to be a force but just can’t get the other 2 meetings out my head. I’m am kinda debating whether I wanna play packers or their team total over 22.5 or 1st half maybe? I’m def nervous bout the 4th qrtr.
 
I've seen all kinda of "easy" "free money" picks on the Rams and Eagles....that rarely works out well.

Carolina playing with house money.....Rams have sucked since Thanksgiving.....Rams running game is weak.....Davonte could limp off the field after any play.....

Everyone saw SF get killed vs Seattle....so the initial reaction is Philly will duplicate that.... Goedert won't be 100%....Philly will be rusty after taking last week off.....Barkley is down a notch from last year as is the Eagles entire O.....

Rams and Eagles may win.....but I dont think either will be easy.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
I've seen all kinda of "easy" "free money" picks on the Rams and Eagles....that rarely works out well.

Carolina playing with house money.....Rams have sucked since Thanksgiving.....Rams running game is weak.....Davonte could limp off the field after any play.....

Everyone saw SF get killed vs Seattle....so the initial reaction is Philly will duplicate that.... Goedert won't be 100%....Philly will be rusty after taking last week off.....Barkley is down a notch from last year as is the Eagles entire O.....

Rams and Eagles may win.....but I dont think either will be easy.
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I agree with your bottom sentence. Neither game is that easy but let's go further here...

Rams running game is weak? They are 7th in the NFL in rushing.

LA Rams lost to Carolina on Thanksgiving weekend, as has been noted. That was a 1pm East Coast game on a Holiday week. They were also off a Sunday night demolish of the Bucs before that. That win versus TB was their 6th straight.

After that Panthers game...

Screenshot_20260106-021817.png

Boat raced Arizona

Dominant 2nd half offensive performance vs Detroit

They were absolutely controlling the game in Seattle till late 3rd.

BAD loss in Atlanta.

Took care of business vs Arizona to lock up the easiest 1st round matchup.

I think that people are overreacting quite a bit to the last 3 losses this year. We had a "schedule" loss, an epic comeback and admittedly a terrible one.

This wasn't some ridiculous collapse to end the season.
 
C-MAN said:
A lot is being said about Chicago’s schedule, but Green Bay does not have a great resume either. A 2-4 record vs playoff teams beating Pit and Chi and losing to Chi, Car, Den and Phi (would have been 1-5 if Baltimore’s kicker could make a field goal 😉).
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Very true.

Schedules are what they are. This is why the NFL turns over approximately 50% of the playoff teams each year. Last place schedules are a thing. The Patriots and Bears are PRIME examples. Now, they can squash the haters.

Chicago had the incredible win in Philly via that rushing attack. Just an odd defensive game for the Eagles that day.

That's their signature win. Green Bay essentially beat them twice, until they didn't. Onside kicks do happen once in a blue moon.
 
C-MAN said:
Agree 100%. I felt dirty winning on the Bears in that second matchup. Only concerns here are Love’s health and Green Bay is not exactly peaking right now. Injuries derailed the Pack. I think a healthy Green Bay team would’ve made the SB.
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They definitely had a chance. That was my first full unit futures bet back in August at 20-1. Great value a week before Parsons. That's the league though, battle of attrition.
 
2daBank said:
Philly-3 all day, already bet this cause actually expected it to be higher. I don’t see this all that much different than Seattle whipping niners at Los on both sides. Pretty confident Philly defensive front can control gm and think even Philly offense be fine vs Niners awful d.

Kinda like packers but don’t love it. Little scared of the charmed life bears been living all year but let’s be real. Packers kinda dominated bears for large portions of both games before bears did their late game voodoo. The 2nd meeting packers were totally beat to shit, love left game, and they never punted! They simply couldn’t finish drives with pretty much all backups. Bears d can’t stop a nose bleed, the only hope this d has is the weather turns really bad really fast!
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Packers are somehow 0-3 this year in games they haven't punted!

The rest of the league is undefeated! (Almost positive on this part).
 
B.A.R. said:
I agree with your bottom sentence. Neither game is that easy but let's go further here...

Rams running game is weak? They are 7th in the NFL in rushing.

LA Rams lost to Carolina on Thanksgiving weekend, as has been noted. That was a 1pm East Coast game on a Holiday week. They were also off a Sunday night demolish of the Bucs before that. That win versus TB was their 6th straight.

After that Panthers game...

View attachment 106474

Boat raced Arizona

Dominant 2nd half offensive performance vs Detroit

They were absolutely controlling the game in Seattle till late 3rd.

BAD loss in Atlanta.

Took care of business vs Arizona to lock up the easiest 1st round matchup.

I think that people are overreacting quite a bit to the last 3 losses this year. We had a "schedule" loss, an epic comeback and admittedly a terrible one.

This wasn't some ridiculous collapse to end the season.
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This is pretty spot on. And you can’t underestimate Adams. He WAS hurt and they’ve taken their time with him. He’s a full go in practice this week. Meaning he’s likely close to 100%. Falcons have been a dominant big game home team for awhile. They beat the Bills pretty good earlier this season. Should have beat the Chiefs last year etc.
 
B.A.R. said:
The optimism is the Eagles offense is not consistent.

Your defense isn't good, as you know. I'd say average at best.

Kyle needs a sharp offensive game plan and to get up early, imo. Definitely doable.
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If Ricky and Trent play vs Seattle, they likely win. You as a Lions fan know more than anyone it’s tough to lose a bunch of guys, but then when you lose with little notice another wave of guys, it just breaks the back. With that said it was going to be 13-10 with 10 mins left before that fluke tipped pick.

I would like to see SF use Tonges AND Kittle on the field together but I haven’t seen a personnel grouping with that. Stubborn Kyle I suppose.

Hurts is the only QB left in these playoffs who can’t just pick apart this crappy SF LB core.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
I've seen all kinda of "easy" "free money" picks on the Rams and Eagles....that rarely works out well.

Carolina playing with house money.....Rams have sucked since Thanksgiving.....Rams running game is weak.....Davonte could limp off the field after any play.....

Everyone saw SF get killed vs Seattle....so the initial reaction is Philly will duplicate that.... Goedert won't be 100%....Philly will be rusty after taking last week off.....Barkley is down a notch from last year as is the Eagles entire O.....

Rams and Eagles may win.....but I dont think either will be easy.
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I mean I jumped all over Philly-3 but I don’t think anything free or easy bout betting on a team who probably has played 3-4 the worst offensive halves of football anyone has seen this season (or maybe ever). I do think this a particularly good matchup for an eagles offense that needs all the help they can get. Like the fact they rested guys while Niners got beat up last week. Philly rested guys last year also and didn’t look rusty.
 
Inspekdah said:
If Ricky and Trent play vs Seattle, they likely win. You as a Lions fan know more than anyone it’s tough to lose a bunch of guys, but then when you lose with little notice another wave of guys, it just breaks the back. With that said it was going to be 13-10 with 10 mins left before that fluke tipped pick.

I would like to see SF use Tonges AND Kittle on the field together but I haven’t seen a personnel grouping with that. Stubborn Kyle I suppose.

Hurts is the only QB left in these playoffs who can’t just pick apart this crappy SF LB core.
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Great point about a 2 TE set.

I like Tonges a lot.
 

The "Windy City" forecasts at game time​

​

Evening​

1/10
27°
RealFeel® 8°

Mostly cloudy and breezy
Wind W 18 mph

Wind Gusts 27 mph

Humidity77%

Dew Point22°
Probability of Precipitation25%

Precipitation0.00 in

Cloud Cover99%

Visibility5 m
 
  • Home Underdogs: Home underdogs of four points or more in playoff games are a perfect 9-0 ATS over the last 50 years, with six of those winning outright. The Carolina Panthers in their matchup against the Rams fit this trend this year as a double-digit underdog.
 
gamblinjunkie said:
  • Home Underdogs: Home underdogs of four points or more in playoff games are a perfect 9-0 ATS over the last 50 years, with six of those winning outright. The Carolina Panthers in their matchup against the Rams fit this trend this year as a double-digit underdog.
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Wild stat.

But I don’t think it will matter.
 
2daBank said:
tonges been a beast when kittle out but to @Inspekdah point he becomes totally invisible when kittle plays.
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I don’t even think he plays with Kittle on the field. Only spells him. Luke Farrel is their blocking TE like an extra tackle but I would love for them to do some 13 personnel. Problem is they don’t have a Puka or a legit WR1 to keep the defense honest like the Rams have when they run 3 TEs.
 
Inspekdah said:
As a big fan of opening lines though I thought we’d see Philly -5.5 or higher. Line says 9ers a live dog.

When I saw Seattle open as a favorite I knew 9ers had no chance last night.
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I thought the same. This line is fishy low. When you look at the matchups, I don’t see where anything favors the 9ers especially on both sides of the LOS.
 
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