***NFC Divisional Playoff Discussion***

Found Freeman Rec yards o24.5 -115
Coleman Rec yards o15.5 -105
Havent seen Rec props yet

These seem a little low no?
 
Love for the Dirty Birds is getting bad.

That stooge Cousin Sal has his 3k best bet on them.
 
ProV1Colt said:
Found Freeman Rec yards o24.5 -115
Coleman Rec yards o15.5 -105
Havent seen Rec props yet

These seem a little low no?
Click to expand...

they do, but how high can you really make them? I feel like the books just try to survive props besides the huge juice ones that they want squares to play

emkee said:
It's Rodgers vs everybody. No run game, hobbled passing game. Doubt they're gifted a bunch of drops either.

Yes, it fucking should be 7.
Click to expand...

sorry but nobody in the real world agrees with you

Tito said:
have been leaning Pack in this one all week...I'm starting to not be comfortable with the fact that they are so comfortable w hanging that -4.5 out there w everyone loving the Pack
Click to expand...

the Nelson injury should subdue this feeling a little bit, but i agree with you. Surprised there's enough DAL love out there to keep this number here instead of falling towards 3
 
I think the Dallas line opener was higher than it should be.... -3.5 would've still seen plenty of packers money....but maybe they knew Jordy would be out. No fucking way should it be 7.
 
It's how the 'numbers' see the line.

Books dropped 4, with Jordy I'd line it at 2.5, with no run game coupled with no Jordy it's 7 maybe 6.5 with the metrics.

Would I lay 7, hell nah but it is what it is.
 
When GB played NYG, when Eli dropped back they didn't have to worry about him running. With Dallas, Dak will be a threat running the ball so they will have to commit somewhat. He's not a huge yardage guy but he did have 6 rushing TD's to go with his 23 passing TD's.
 
ProV1Colt said:
Found Freeman Rec yards o24.5 -115
Coleman Rec yards o15.5 -105
Havent seen Rec props yet

These seem a little low no?
Click to expand...



they do seem low, think it may be in part to the Seahawks as top 5 in stopping Rbs rec yards (per FO)
 
Also took one more Baldwin Over 70.5 rec -125. Falcons 29th against slots and are playing what is essentially a backup on Baldwin. I think the Hawks trail and Baldwin has been targeted 19, 4 and 12 last 3.
 
CrimsonK said:
I took Freeman Over 22.5 receiving -115 and Alex Collins Over 24.5 rushing+receiving -115 on 5d
Click to expand...

love the Collins play and it's not like Rawls can't get injured on any given play which would make this happen without a doubt. No bad juju to Rawls tho, need a good game from him to get a W here. GL
 
If you like ATL at this point you might as well wait imo, hard to see them moving it to 7..I'd assume they'd get flooded with SEA money if they did that. Hopefully you can get 6 or less before kickoff. If it does go to 7, I'll take Seattle, I know that.
 
tipyerbartender said:
Crap. Asleep at the switch.
Click to expand...

As was I but never expected such a move, steam usually kills but a 3-point swing against a proven team is odd.

Especially given how 'soft' the Dirty Birds always are in big games.

Thought we'd see Hags money today to give the spread some balance.

So many mushes on the ATL as well but the biggest mush of them all (Lang) is on the Hags.
 
Happy to see B Lang on Seattle. I might shift gears and go squarepants over.
 
I guess I can buy it at -125 but not overly interested in it, got enough riding on the team total and game total...and some props. I expect SEA to know they need to score some points today and always love me some dome to help that out.
 
What I saw bro.

[TABLE="class: layout"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]5Dimes
[TABLE="class: tableStatic, width: 850"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Time[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Game[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Visitor Line[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Home Line[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Visitor %[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Home %[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/14/2017 2:45:59 PM [/TD]
[TD] Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 7.0-130[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -7.0+110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 46%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 54%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/14/2017 2:26:09 PM [/TD]
[TD] Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 6.0-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -6.0-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 46%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 54%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/14/2017 1:44:12 PM [/TD]
[TD] Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 7.0-130[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -7.0+110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 44%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 56%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/14/2017 1:09:40 PM [/TD]
[TD] Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 7.0-125[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -7.0+105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 44%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 56%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/14/2017 12:45:31 PM [/TD]
[TD] Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 7.0-130[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -7.0+110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 44%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 56%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/14/2017 10:23:50 AM [/TD]
[TD] Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 6.0-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -6.0-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 42%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/14/2017 9:32:11 AM [/TD]
[TD] Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 5.5-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -5.5-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 42%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/14/2017 6:08:58 AM [/TD]
[TD] Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 5.0-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -5.0-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 42%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/13/2017 1:27:08 PM [/TD]
[TD] Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 4.5-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -4.5-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 44%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 56%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/10/2017 8:32:01 PM [/TD]
[TD] Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 5.0-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -5.0-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 44%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 56%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/10/2017 9:21:36 AM [/TD]
[TD] Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 4.5-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -4.5-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 43%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 57%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/10/2017 9:21:31 AM [/TD]
[TD] Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 5.0-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -5.0-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 43%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 57%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/8/2017 1:29:27 PM [/TD]
[TD] Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 4.5-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -4.5-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 37%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 63%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/8/2017 3:00:35 AM [/TD]
[TD] Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 4.0-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -4.0-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 100%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Dak OVER 20 completions....hate to say this b/c don't like bold statements, but this seems ez today. Famous last words
 
I understand the opposite rationale, but getting 5 points with a first ballot hall of fame qb playing the best ball of his career and also having in-season revenge just doesn't seem very wise to fade.
 
And yes I know I just contradicted my own stance earlier this week. Just think fading Rodgers as a road dog in this spot is trying too hard.
 
I loved GB all week but starting to back off...playoffs have been too easy this far(it's. 50/50 prop so maybe I'm lucky)

These are the tough ones today
 
Hearing mixed things on weather in KC. Any thoughts on the impact to scoring? I really like Steelers o21 at -110 right now but do not want to lock in if weather will be an issue.
 
emkee said:
What I saw bro.
Click to expand...

sorry, didn't mean to bro you. but you see what I mean right? if you don't have a 5D account, they list their wagers in drop-down menus, so at the time of the 7 -130 there was still the 6.5 -110, it just wasn't the default wager they had set up for teasers. if you wanted a 6-point teaser it would have given you the -1 instead of the -.5 they way they shade their lines
 
emkee said:
It's how the 'numbers' see the line.

Books dropped 4, with Jordy I'd line it at 2.5, with no run game coupled with no Jordy it's 7 maybe 6.5 with the metrics.

Would I lay 7, hell nah but it is what it is.
Click to expand...

i appreciate your willingness to participate in the discussion, but this isn't close to how the market thinks
 
Aaron Rodgers is 12-7 ATS as a 3+ dog in his career. So many clowns out there think that great QBs getting a ton of points is a trap and it's just not true at all. Almost all of them are great as dogs.

Prescott a rook who has had as cushy of a season as you can have. 16 passses thrown when down 9 for HIS ENTIRE CAREER. Fully expect him to be forced to make plays and fail. Still think Romo should be starting.
 
GWarner27 said:
i appreciate your willingness to participate in the discussion, but this isn't close to how the market thinks
Click to expand...

Don't care about the 'market'. Player projections based on season-long figures, Rodgers struggles when Jordy is absent/not 100%.

It is what it is.
 
I've uncomfortably hitching my wagons to the over in Dallas. Can't pick a side.
 
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