NFC Championship 49ers @ Falcons Discussion

daveniner · Jan 16, 2013

scdoggy said:
This game is unbettable for me. As high as I am on Frisco, this line is absurd. Like Braves said earlier, would ATL be an 11 pt dog in Frisco? Fuck no.

Huge overreaction to last week's game. 60% or more of the public last week was ready to be against Frisco with a short line of only -3 while playing at home against a very one dimensional Green Bay team. Now, those same people are ready to give four points with the same Niner team playing across the country, on a different playing surface, against one of the best home teams in football? Come on....

That being said, I do think Frisco matches up VERY well with Atlanta. SF's defense should be able to do a decent job covering the WR's and Gonz. I expect Ryan to feel some pressure. I also expect the Niners offense to struggle at times in what will be the most hostile environment Kaepernick has ever seen. Lotta noise in a dome. And a crowd that will be jacked up to be playing football this late in a season.

Just like last week - a more complete team on the visiting sidelines - but this time the number is a bit too lopsided. Pass for me. Maybe look at under

I don't see how it could be more hostile than the 12th man. I hope the Seattle game will be in the back of Kap's mind and I hope that he will be better prepared, this time.

daveniner · Jan 16, 2013

Let’s look at the matchups, in the trenches. We have:

LT Staley (6-5, 315), LG Iupati (6-5, 331), C Goodwin (6-3, 318), RG Boone (6-8, 300), and RT A. Davis (6-5, 323) and TE V. Davis (6-3, 250, who is not very big, but known for his blocking skills) blocking against Atlanta’s:

RDE Abraham (6-4, 263) with Sidbury (6-3, 265) listed as his backup, RDT Jerry (6-2, 294), LDT Babineaux (6-2, 300), and LDE Biermann (6-3, 255) along with LB’s: SLB Nicholas (6-3, 236), MLB Dent (6-1, 239), and WLB Weatherspoon (6-2, 244)

Atlanta has a smallish front 7. They’re not known for putting pressure on opposing QB’s. Their run defense is ranked 20th and pass defense is ranked 6th. SF has the 4th ranked rushing offense and the 23rd ranked pass offense. When Atlanta has the ball:

LT Baker (6-5, 301), LG Blalock (6-4, 326), C McClure (6-1, 296), RG Konz (6-5, 317), RT Clabo (6-6, 329) and TE Gonzalez (6-5 247, who is a great receiver, but I don’t know if he is considered a great blocker) blocking against SF’s:

DE McDonald (6-3, 290), NT Sopoaga (6-2, 330), DE J. Smith (6-4, 285), and ROLB A. Smith (6-4, 258, who rushes from both sides) along with arguably the best LB’s in the league: LOLB Brooks (6-3, 259), LILB Bowman (6-0, 242), and team leader, RILB Willis (6-1, 240)

Atlanta’s OL did a great job against a good Seattle team, but they were without their best pass rusher Clemmons. Atlanta has the 29th ranked rushing attack and the 6th ranked passing game, going against the 4th ranked rush defense and 4th ranked pass defense.

Troutman · Jan 17, 2013

daveniner said:
Let’s look at the matchups, in the trenches. We have:

LT Staley (6-5, 315), LG Iupati (6-5, 331), C Goodwin (6-3, 318), RG Boone (6-8, 300), and RT A. Davis (6-5, 323) and TE V. Davis (6-3, 250, who is not very big, but known for his blocking skills) blocking against Atlanta’s:

RDE Abraham (6-4, 263) with Sidbury (6-3, 265) listed as his backup, RDT Jerry (6-2, 294), LDT Babineaux (6-2, 300), and LDE Biermann (6-3, 255) along with LB’s: SLB Nicholas (6-3, 236), MLB Dent (6-1, 239), and WLB Weatherspoon (6-2, 244)

Atlanta has a smallish front 7. They’re not known for putting pressure on opposing QB’s. Their run defense is ranked 20th and pass defense is ranked 6th. SF has the 4th ranked rushing offense and the 23rd ranked pass offense. When Atlanta has the ball:

LT Baker (6-5, 301), LG Blalock (6-4, 326), C McClure (6-1, 296), RG Konz (6-5, 317), RT Clabo (6-6, 329) and TE Gonzalez (6-5 247, who is a great receiver, but I don’t know if he is considered a great blocker) blocking against SF’s:

DE McDonald (6-3, 290), NT Sopoaga (6-2, 330), DE J. Smith (6-4, 285), and ROLB A. Smith (6-4, 258, who rushes from both sides) along with arguably the best LB’s in the league: LOLB Brooks (6-3, 259), LILB Bowman (6-0, 242), and team leader, RILB Willis (6-1, 240)

Atlanta’s OL did a great job against a good Seattle team, but they were without their best pass rusher Clemmons. Atlanta has the 29th ranked rushing attack and the 6th ranked passing game, going against the 4th ranked rush defense and 4th ranked pass defense.

What are the home road splits????

Troutman · Jan 17, 2013

I think Atlanta has to play at a high level to have success against San Frans front seven there is no doubt. But I think they can be effective on the outside if Ryan gets a little time. I also thnk the screen game, specially wr screens, will be very important because our otuside guys are way better than SF corners imo. Thats where we have the advantage.

However, if SF gets pressure early and often and shuts down the running game then the Falcons are gonna have a hard time scoring. I think this may be a 13-17 type of game with both offenses struggling to score tds.

guaranteeed · Jan 17, 2013

Falcons are lucky the league just didn't force them out of the playoffs and give SF a bye

Troutman · Jan 17, 2013

guaranteeed said:
Falcons are lucky the league just didn't force them out of the playoffs and give SF a bye

I know right. I guess Aurthur wouldnt have been ok with that. Im surprised they are even showing the game on television since its a forgone conclusion that the 9ers win.

daveniner · Jan 18, 2013

I’m not saying Atlanta can’t make this a close game, or even win the game. I’m just showing some matchups and, hopefully, helping someone make some money off the game. I don’t know which road splits stats you are talking about. But, (straight up) Sf is 7-1-1, at home, 5-3 away. Atlanta is 8-1, at home, and 6-2 away. Those are including the playoff games.

Now, back to the matchups. SF averages about 155 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. Atlanta gives up about 123 ypg and 4.8 ypc.

Gore averages 75.9 ypg and 4.7 ypc.

James took over spelling Gore, after Hunter was placed on IR. He also does kick returns. He averaged 31.3 ypg and 4.6 ypc.

Dixon doesn’t get much playing time and is probably more of a short yardage back. He only averaged 4.9 ypg and 3.7 ypc.

The X-factor, Kaep, averaged 31.9 ypg and 6.6 ypc.

Atlanta rushes for only about 87 ypg and 3/7 ypc., while SF only gives up about 94 ypg and 3.7 ypc.

Turner averages 50 ypg and 3.6 ypc.

Rodgers averages about 23 ypg and 3.9 ypc.

Ryan is not really a scrambling QB, but he can get out of the pocket when he needs to. He averages 8.8 ypg and 4.1 ypc.

wizardofodd · Jan 18, 2013

Marlo said:
San Fran inside of Domes the last two years

2011/2012
W @ Detroit 25-19
L @ Dallas 24-27 (if you consider Dallas a dome)
W @ St Louis 34-27

2012/2013
L @ Minnesota 13-24-
W @ New Orleans 31-21
L @ St Louis 13-16

I was at the Saints game. 14 points for San Fran off two Drew Breez pick 6! But Ginn did also fumble a punt which saints recovered.

TheHbomb · Jan 18, 2013

The dome was shut in Arizona the last two seasons the niners won there.... The Dallas game was at candlestick. So instead of a 3-3 record, it should say 5-2. Big difference I would say.

daveniner · Jan 18, 2013

In the passing game, Kaep didn’t play the entire season. So, the team stats won’t be entirely due to him. But, SF (as a team) averaged passing for about 206 ypg, about 11.4 yards per completion, and about 8.1 yards per attempt. Atlanta gives up about 242 ypg, about 11.5 ypc, and 7 ypa.

Kaep averages about 131 ypg, 13.3 ypc, and 8.3 ypa.

Crabtree averages about 69 ypg and 13 ypc.

TE Davis averages about 34 ypg and 13.4 ypc.

Moss only averages about 27 ypg, but 15.5 ypc.

Manningham will be missed and Jenkins has not proven that he can play, at this level, yet. Gore and James can be a threat out of the backfield. SF’s receivers will be defended by Atlanta’s CBs, Samuel and Robinson, Safeties Moore and DeCoud.

Atlanta averaged about 282 ypg, 10.7 ypc, and 7.3 ypa. Sf gives up about 200 ypg, 10.3 ypc, and 6.1 ypa.

Ryan averages about 282 ypg, 11.2 ypc, and 7.7 ypa.

White averages about 84 ypg and 14.7 ypc.

Jones averages about 75 ypg and 15.2 ypc.

TE Gonzalez averages about 58 ypg and 10 ypc.

Rodgers can be dangerous, in the passing game, as well. Atlanta’s receivers will be defended by SF’s CBs, Rogers and Brown, Safeties Whitner and Goldson.

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nbafan88 · Jan 18, 2013

[TABLE="class: tableOdds, width: 1164"]
<tbody id="oddsBody">[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"]1/20

3:00 PM

301 San Francisco 49ers
302 Atlanta Falcons

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 69%
31%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 53%
47%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 79%
21%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

guaranteeed · Jan 18, 2013

KTVU ‏<s style="text-decoration: initial; color: rgb(187, 187, 187);">@</s>KTVU
<s style="text-decoration: initial; color: rgb(102, 185, 224);">#</s>BREAKING: <s style="text-decoration: initial; color: rgb(102, 185, 224);">#</s>SFPD says <s style="text-decoration: initial; color: rgb(102, 185, 224);">#</s>49er wide receiver <s style="text-decoration: initial; color: rgb(102, 185, 224);">#</s>MichaelCrabtree is being investigated for an alleged sexual assault

JumpOnBoard · Jan 18, 2013

@AdamBCC: Good time for that. RT @KTVU: #BREAKING: #SFPD says #49er wide receiver #MichaelCrabtree is being investigated for an alleged sexual assault

reNew Orleans · Jan 18, 2013

nothing like sexual assault to get you ready for an nfc championship game

nbafan88 · Jan 18, 2013

just what the books needed....

Lareux · Jan 19, 2013

nbafan88 said:
just what the books needed....

Anyone think the line will be affected much by this? Enough to get it to 3, or even cross the 3? Some thought that the line would creep closer to and maybe hit 5 (it's at 4 currently), just wanted to hear some thoughts about it doing the opposite now. Would be tough for me to see it crossing the FG, due to the fact it's been well about the FG all week and they could easily get middled, but I could see it ending up on 3.

detroit187 · Jan 19, 2013

doubt it if he's playing, which it appears he is of course.

scdoggy · Jan 19, 2013

No way this moves the line past 3. Half a point tops....

cogenman · Jan 19, 2013

I want to take the Niners but I can't ignore the fact that the Falcons are 8-1 at home this year. And not just this year but Matt Ryan has been excellent at home his whole career. I know Kaep brings a whole nother dynamic that Alex Smith didn't have but Kaep is still raw. You saw what Seattle did to him at home. If ATL was smart, they'd watch the game film on that game and try and do what they did.

I thought a fair line for this game would be a pk with ATL's defense being the weak spot. But this line of SF -4 has got me all confused trying to figure out what the oddsmakers think. Personally I think it's an over-reaction to what Kaep did last week but anything can happen, especially with ATL at home.

B.A.R. · Jan 20, 2013

Regardless of matchups and yada yada this is a great example of an 'overlay'.

mcdrewcarey187 · Jan 20, 2013

Troutman said:
Thats one thing the Falcons have been good at. They will give up yards in the middle but they usually limit the scoring once inside the 20's. I think Nolan has had a big part in that.

That's where Kaps playmaking ability comes in to play. In the redzone.

nbafan88 · Jan 20, 2013

from rotoworld

Sunday's 3:00PM ET Game

San Francisco @ Atlanta

In-season quarterback change and the NFC's top-ranked defense may come to mind first when contemplating this year's 49ers, but San Francisco's most consistently dominant on-field attribute is punishing, game-controlling offensive line play. The Niners overwhelm opponents and impose their will in the trenches with football's most powerful front five. Although Atlanta mitigated the Seattle run game by grabbing a 20-0 first-half lead in the Divisional Round, forcing the Seahawks to lean on the pass, the Falcons will be hard pressed to repeat that formula this week. 49ers tailbacks Frank Gore, LaMichael James, and Anthony Dixon combined for 142 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries (5.26 YPC) in last week's demolition of Green Bay, and despite Colin Kaepernick's monster effort, stopping Gore should be Atlanta's primary concern early in Sunday's game. It's a lot to ask from a relatively undersized Falcons front seven prone to allowing chunks of yardage after contact. ... In the regular season, Atlanta struggled to defend offenses that utilized read-option run games. The Falcons needed a miracle last-minute comeback to defeat Cam Newton's Panthers by two points in September, before falling to Carolina 30-20 in December. In Week 5, the Redskins lit up Atlanta for 129 yards on 21 carries (6.14 YPC) in a 24-17 game from which Robert Griffin III exited early. Playcaller Greg Roman admittedly hid the 49ers' read-option package in Weeks 16 and 17, only to unleash it on the Packers and end their season. The Falcons know it's coming in conference championship week. Whether they're able to stop it may determine this year's NFC Super Bowl representative.

Michael Crabtree moves around the formation enough that he will line up against Falcons RCB Dunta Robinson, LCB Asante Samuel, and slot CB Robert McClain each on select plays throughout Sunday's game. Atlanta plays "sides" at cornerback, leaving Robinson, Samuel, and McClain at their designated positions rather than shadowing top receivers. Getting open versus Samuel can be difficult, but Crabtree has developed into an elite tackle breaker after the catch, and tackling is the one area in which Samuel struggles. With 44 receptions, 657 yards, and six touchdowns over his last six games, expect Crabtree to continue to carry the mail in the 49ers' passing attack. ... The Niners oddly do a better job of scheming No. 2 tight end Delanie Walker open than Vernon Davis, the latter of whom has been kept quiet while the former has displayed some of the NFL's poorest hands. Walker has four drops over his last three games, including two in the Divisional Round. It remains to be seen whether the 49ers will commit to getting Davis the ball in the NFC title game, but there's every reason to believe doing so would help them. Rather than a featured pass option, Davis has been lightly targeted with passes essentially only coming his way on low-percentage shots downfield. He has remained an impact run blocker. ... Anything the Niners get from Randy Moss, Ted Ginn, and A.J. Jenkins as role-player receivers can be considered a bonus. Moss no longer creates separation going on age 36, and Father Time has sapped his fluidity. Jenkins played only seven snaps against Green Bay. Ginn played 20, catching one pass for three yards.

After a sluggish regular season in which he failed to crack 4.0 yards a carry in 10 of Atlanta's final 12 games, Michael Turner was a force to be reckoned with against Seattle as the Falcons smartly attacked substitute defensive end Bruce Irvin on power runs. 31-year-old Turner also had fresh legs after a first-round playoff bye. The 49ers don't have front-seven defenders remotely as vulnerable as Irvin on the ground, so don't look for Turner to build on last week's effort. Atlanta's offensive line also cleared gaping holes against the Seahawks. San Francisco is considerably stouter up front. ... 49ers right end Justin Smith played effectively through his partial triceps tear in the Divisional Round, recording five tackles and commanding double teams as if he were never hurt. The Niners still couldn't free up Aldon Smith for any sacks, though he did hit Aaron Rodgers once and forced a fumble. Seattle's defense was picked apart by Matt Ryan last Sunday due in large part to its inability to pressure Atlanta's quarterback. While San Francisco is healthier and better equipped than the Chris Clemons-less Seahawks to formulate a pass rush, the Smiths and left end Ray McDonald will simply have to play better than they did against the Pack. The Niners' defense doesn't double team receivers or mix coverages much in the back end, so it'll be relying on more production at the line. Like Seattle, San Francisco is willing to leave cornerbacks on an island.

The 49ers' defense is heavy up front with NT Isaac Sopoaga (330 pounds), and DEs McDonald (290) and Smith (285) on the line. They back that up with sideline-to-sideline range at inside linebacker, as Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman each possess sub-4.5 wheels and -- most importantly -- play like it. Willis and Bowman's pursuit speed will be crucial for slowing down shifty Falcons change-up back Jacquizz Rodgers. ... Atlanta's defense can be run on, and it is only above average in pass coverage. The offensive run game has been inconsistent to be kind. The Falcons have been successful in two essential areas this season: The won-loss column and the pass game. Although the Niners trot out a formidable cornerback group with Tarell Brown on the right, Chris Culliver on the left side, and Carlos Rogers in the slot on nickel downs, the Falcons' receivers have shown the ability to consistently defeat coverage on the outside while Tony Gonzalez re-confirmed in the Divisional Round that he's still playing at a top-five tight end level. Defensively, containing Atlanta's vaunted passing attack comes down to mustering up pressure. If San Francisco can't get heat on Ryan, the Falcons will not struggle to light up the scoreboard.

Score Prediction: 49ers 33, Falcons 27

xyzky · Jan 20, 2013

I've watched Kap since college, 49ers want to run, he will rush for 100 and throw for 250. I do think ATL keeps pace, but, I've lost the 4.5

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