NFC Championship 49ers @ Falcons Discussion

I will say this, when Matt Bryant kicked that game winning FG to beat Seattle, there were 800k San Fancisco-ites that collectively said "thank fukking god."
 
I might be nuts, but I like the falcons here.

It will be fun to see how the totals shape out this weekend. Wild card round we had 4 unders. Divisional round 4 overs. Split this time?
 
so atlanta would be 10.5 dogs if this was played in San Fran?

I think the line is a bit of an over reaction to the san fran and atlanta second halves this weekend, but man did that Atlanta defense look awful in the second half yesterday. San Fran backers lost some value by that absolute turd that Atlanta put up in the second half yesterday. Hard to lay 3.5 on the road in the NFC championship, at least it is for me. Tough one here
 
i will be looking for a SF alt line, possibly -10.5 at plus money

harbaugh v smith is laughable, only question to me is kap performing in this situation. but i don't think he has any more pressure than matt ice

if you like atlanta, i would encourage a 1q bet, because it seems to be very difficult to adjust to the speed of the indoor game for outside teams. it could easily catch the niners by surprise early, but they are a better team and will adjust imo
 
I want to bet Atlanta money line at home here, but I just don't see it.
 
i really thought a sf/atl game would yield a pk line in atlanta. this weekend changed that, which kinda sucks...what is a fair line? san francisco is so far superior to atlanta, i would like to know what the fair line would be.

it's the nfl, and any team can win, especially at home. but one team is far superior to the other in this matchup. even if kap sucks, they can adjust and control the game. how high can they line this? i'm gonna guess this game sucks for a linemaker
 
San Fran inside of Domes the last two years

2011/2012
W @ Detroit 25-19
L @ Dallas 24-27 (if you consider Dallas a dome)
W @ St Louis 34-27

2012/2013
L @ Minnesota 13-24-
W @ New Orleans 31-21
L @ St Louis 13-16
 
If you take out the 3 divisional games against ST Louis/Seattle/AZ.....since Kaepernick has take over the 49ers have scored

32 against Chicago
31 against NO
27 against Miami
41 against NE
45 against GB

Thats 35 a game.

Add in the division games, you still get 28pp game.
 
view this game very similar to that of the NOLA game this year with the hostile environment; matty ice and the boys a bit relaxed after finally breaking their playoff jinx?

I like Hunt's approach and taking the TT
 
braves said:
so atlanta would be 10.5 dogs if this was played in San Fran?

I think the line is a bit of an over reaction to the san fran and atlanta second halves this weekend, but man did that Atlanta defense look awful in the second half yesterday. San Fran backers lost some value by that absolute turd that Atlanta put up in the second half yesterday. Hard to lay 3.5 on the road in the NFC championship, at least it is for me. Tough one here
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Abraham wasnt in the game and they werent able to get any pressure on Wilson, he literally sat there for 6-7 seconds some times before taking off and running if he couldnt find Miller running open through the middle.

Abraham is probablythe most athletic end we have that has a chance at rounding up Kapernick, if he doesnt play a full game its gonna be a long day for the Falcons.

However, what you did see on Sunday was Atlantas ability to run the ball, I think if they can establish the run again then Matt will have his way with that secondary. If San Fran is able to bottle up the run and pin their ears back and rush the passer it will get ugly fast.

I think after getting that Mouse off their back last weekend they will play a lot more relaxed and the Dome was out of control too. The noise in that place was crazy, I couldnt even talk with my buddy on the last few drives. I think it comes down to a field goal again. Defend the Dome!
 
One more thing - the value in the line is defintely for Atlanta. I think the line gets bet up some more and then gets pounded down right before game time.
 
Troutman said:
One more thing - the value in the line is defintely for Atlanta. I think the line gets bet up some more and then gets pounded down right before game time.
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Behind Twinkie, I'm probably one of the bigger bashers of ATL in here, but I'm starting to agree with this. EVERYBODY is on SF. I still don't trust Akers either.
 
it's going to be tough for turner and co. to run on that D, just too athletic and fast
 
I disagree with those who think the falcons are going to be looser....they are going to be even TIGHTER this week.
 
TheHbomb said:
I disagree with those who think the falcons are going to be looser....they are going to be even TIGHTER this week.
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I dont think so. They are at home and have already gotten the Mouse off their backs. I know the goal is to win a SB but just winning a playoff game was huge.

I guess we will see on Sunday.
 
gsro said:
how high do you see it going?
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Idk - but even if it doesnt go any higher its a good number to play the Falcons. I dont know what the next key number would be maybe 6? I dont think it gets there, but I think it gets bet down to 3 or 3.5 by kickoff.
 
Mouse is far from off their backs... After their near collapse. That little Mouse is gripping in even tighter.
 
TheHbomb said:
Mouse is far from off their backs... After their near collapse. That little Mouse is gripping in even tighter.
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Say what you want - but after reading an listening to all the interviews thats not the feeling I get. If thats an angle you want to bet go for it.
 
Troutman said:
Idk - but even if it doesnt go any higher its a good number to play the Falcons. I dont know what the next key number would be maybe 6? I dont think it gets there, but I think it gets bet down to 3 or 3.5 by kickoff.
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hope it goes back down to 3
 
Troutman said:
You will probably have to wait to right before kick - although it may hang at 3.5 depending on how much ESPN hypes up the Niners all week.
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hoping the "matty ice at home" theory comes into play and some of the schmoes play that angle
 
This game is unbettable for me. As high as I am on Frisco, this line is absurd. Like Braves said earlier, would ATL be an 11 pt dog in Frisco? Fuck no.

Huge overreaction to last week's game. 60% or more of the public last week was ready to be against Frisco with a short line of only -3 while playing at home against a very one dimensional Green Bay team. Now, those same people are ready to give four points with the same Niner team playing across the country, on a different playing surface, against one of the best home teams in football? Come on....

That being said, I do think Frisco matches up VERY well with Atlanta. SF's defense should be able to do a decent job covering the WR's and Gonz. I expect Ryan to feel some pressure. I also expect the Niners offense to struggle at times in what will be the most hostile environment Kaepernick has ever seen. Lotta noise in a dome. And a crowd that will be jacked up to be playing football this late in a season.

Just like last week - a more complete team on the visiting sidelines - but this time the number is a bit too lopsided. Pass for me. Maybe look at under
 
scdoggy said:
This game is unbettable for me. As high as I am on Frisco, this line is absurd. Like Braves said earlier, would ATL be an 11 pt dog in Frisco? Fuck no.

Huge overreaction to last week's game. 60% or more of the public last week was ready to be against Frisco with a short line of only -3 while playing at home against a very one dimensional Green Bay team. Now, those same people are ready to give four points with the same Niner team playing across the country, on a different playing surface, against one of the best home teams in football? Come on....

That being said, I do think Frisco matches up VERY well with Atlanta. SF's defense should be able to do a decent job covering the WR's and Gonz. I expect Ryan to feel some pressure. I also expect the Niners offense to struggle at times in what will be the most hostile environment Kaepernick has ever seen. Lotta noise in a dome. And a crowd that will be jacked up to be playing football this late in a season.

Just like last week - a more complete team on the visiting sidelines - but this time the number is a bit too lopsided. Pass for me. Maybe look at under
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NOLA is pretty hostile too, also in a dome no?
 
gsro said:
NOLA is pretty hostile too, also in a dome no?
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I cant speak for NO but the energy in the Dome last week was the loudest I have ever seen it. I have been to some pretty big matchups and they were no where near as loud. There weren't many Seahawk fans there either, I expect to see more 49ers fans as they travel well and have a more national fanbase.

That being said the Dome will be nuts and it was registering over 110 decibels at some times last week.
 
GSRO - the similarities between NO and ATL this year end after you said dome. NO a mess this year, and not even close to a playoff caliber team. ATL clinched home field throughout. The fans in the Georgia Dome are going to be nuts on Sunday. They haven't been this far in the playoffs in forever. Saints won a SB recently and were 2/3 of the way through a disappointing season.

Interesting stat of the day - in the 2012 season the Saints had the NFL's worst defensive red zone percentage (TD's allowed).
One of these teams was 4th best and the other was 9th best. And its not in the order you would think.....
 
Thats one thing the Falcons have been good at. They will give up yards in the middle but they usually limit the scoring once inside the 20's. I think Nolan has had a big part in that.
 
Troutman said:
Thats one thing the Falcons have been good at. They will give up yards in the middle but they usually limit the scoring once inside the 20's. I think Nolan has had a big part in that.
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yes they have !
 
I don't see a ton of points coming in this one either...but you def couldn't get me to take the under after seeing what I saw from both of them last week. Total is a pass for me. Could easily see this staying low for the entire game and then getting 21 4th quarter points to screw you.
 
The Falcons remind me of the Saints SB team in ways, with some of the lucky bounces

Now that NO was OBVIOUSLY better LOL.....but still
 
ISU74 said:
when was the last time the #2 seed was a fav against the 1?
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They don't meet very often, twice in the last 5 years - last year Pats and Ravens and 3 seasons ago Saints and Vikings.

2 years ago Green Bay as the 6 seed was favored on the road over the top seeded Bears and covered.
 
ISU74 said:
when was the last time the #2 seed was a fav against the 1?
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Don't know if it was the last time, but NE was a 3 pt fav or so at Pitt back when they were cheating with the cameras. I couldn't figure out how the NE defensive backs were running the routes for Ben, but now we know. Spygate is the main reason I hate NE.
 
The past 6 meeting between one and two seeds have resulted in six wins for the one seed. I read that somewhere on Espn. Maybe Clayton's article.
 
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