New Year's Day Discussion

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Austintx_05

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Only 2 games on baord for tommorrow as it will a "football" day, but 1 game has my interest.

Portland -6.5

Am I crazy liking Portland laying the chalk here? Celtics had a nice backdoor tonight vs a Seattle team that plays no defense. I would think Portland stands a better chance laying the same number that Seattle did. Portland rested at home and Boston on a b2b.

Thoughts?
 
portland has an extremely weak bench. Not sure they're reliable to hold a lead.

I sure as hell wouldn't be the celtics, tho.

GL.
 
I just bet the game over 189. Portland has been a fav 3 times this year and has cashed in none. All three went over. West and Wally came back last night. They did not shoot well but Wally heated up towards the end. Boston if I counted right was 13 and 11 in the fourth. This is their last game of a no wins road trip and would expect real effort. Telfair even might have a good game at his old club. Portland certainly after the last 2 games is ready to rumble. Just expect a high scoring game especially in the first half. GL
 
Over might not be a bad bet. Blazers should get plenty of looks.
 
Nothing grabs me at the moment. CHA is in a *traditional* down spot for them, not a team that puts up a frequent number of 210+ totals with regularity, combined with being off 2 straight wins, while MIN still has a strong road Under record, even thou their last couple have gone Over (vs NJY, only by a couple of baskets).

But the trend thread is signalling a new Over run, so it may be a pass from me for tomorrow. I only ever think Unders for POR unless I see a number out of whack, and Boston has too many Unders recently for me to think it for that game (people have been conditioned now, which means its time for their Overs to start reappearing).
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">I am leaning to Portland-6.5, I am not convinced enough to pull the trigger on that one today. I think I'll pass, looking at tomorrow with 7 games on the board. Good luck with Portland bro, I can't disagree.</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
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I'm taking the Celtics ML tonight. lol. I believe the Celtics can win this thing. :shake:
 
From Last nites Game, the celts progressively seemed to score more as the game went on, whether they were getting in rhythm or Seattle was just fumbling the ball away I don't know. I figure they shoot better than 21 in the 1Q. I think the celts lack rebounding. Can Portland rebound?
 
Portland can rebound. Seattle doesn't like to play defense.

These games strike me as shit games that could easily follow any of the lines of thought you fellas put out there.

I'm taking the day off from the NBA.
 
Since I wont be posting any play for it (to clarify, that means I considered Under but have passed on it), and I've nowhere else to put it, I'll post it here. I did some work on the CHA-MIN total, and of note I found the following...
--------------------------------------------------------------------

This season, CHA has 4 regulation totals fall between 192 & 204 points.

Conversely, they have had

- 13 reg totals fall between 179-191 (the 13 point zone before the 192-204 13 point zone)

- 8 reg totals climb 205 or higher.

- 5 reg totals at 178 or less (yes, they've actually had more totals less than 179, than they've had between 192-204).

So only 13.3% of their results are delivered between 192-204 pts, while 43.3% of their results are delivered between 179-191 points. Related to this opening line of 190.0, its clear which way a close result leans towards being.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

coinciding with CHA's recent Over run (7-3 last 10, but 1 needed OT to become an Over result) is Wallace's purple patch of form.

Over this latest stretch of results, hes averaged 22.6 points in games he's played 20+ mins in. In all games this season prior to this stretch where he played 20+ mins, he averaged 11.3 points. Thats an exact doubling of his output.
CHA over that initial stretch of his lesser form, were 13-6-1 to Under. Over his increased form period, 6-4 to Over. And now he is out injured.
 
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But what does any of that past crap have to do with tonights game??

CHA is in a *traditional* down spot for them, not a team that puts up a frequent number of 210+ totals with regularity, combined with being off 2 straight wins, while MIN still has a strong road Under record

By the way..that was enough for me
an_wink.gif
 
hahahaha. funny comment. yeah. I avoid reading that guy from the other board with a passion. But I agree. Tonight's card is weird. I thought the Bobpussies were done the last two outings w/injuries and surprise. Whatever. Mediocre crap teams. Trailmix looks tempting. Line is moving higher. 7.5. Too high. Heard about the new ball. Which is actually the same ball all of them have grown up with. Celts party too much last night? Portland plays better than Seattle. B2B argument. I'm passing but GL to you guys.
 
malibu$urfer - theres what you've probly heard of in physiological circles a thing called muscle memory. If you stop exercising for such a period after having done that exercise for a decent amount of time, then even when you return to doing it after that layoff, you can pick things back up easily again (like not riding a bike, you dont have to relearn it from scratch).

These guys played so long with the "old" ball, that less than half a season of the new ball isnt going to prevent BOS, in my mind, from picking straight up from where they last left the old ball off.

I would put little weight into that issue for this game. That Doc Rivers is, is really, to my mind, him building an excuse base should BOS fare poorly in this game: he's setting up his scape-goat early. He's a desperate man, after all, lol.
 
Know muscle memory well. Not being an arm chair sports bettor. I actually play. So true. Agree. Happy NY. Today I'm smoking a good Cuban gar over looking the Pacific watching my alma mater's arch rival eat MI for NY's brunch. All fun. All good. I dont' give a shit about school rivalry when it comes to ca$h. So I'm winning. Wolverines are who we thought they were. HAHAHA!
 
I think Charlotte in the past 6, 7 games has find out how to play w/o Knight and seen some maturation from Morrison. They are not the same Bobcats they were week ago and a great indicator is how off what some players calle dthe best game and win in franchise history they went into Indy off 3 OTs and won SU! AS BetCrimes said usually a letdown spot for them after a big win.....the Kitties are growing into Bobcats.....
 
True. Look at that score going into the half. Glad I didn't suck into the Wolf bet. That's why some of these capping arguments are not absolutes. Something squirrely the way they beat LAL and the last game B2B after LAL. After going into 3x OT. Many were saying they're due. Yeah. Due to win again.
 
I think the greatest asset any capper can have is an ability to see a team regardless of sport 'figure it out' so to speak. I dont want to jinx myself here but I have been riding Bobcat Overs at home for awhile now. You can see Felton(pushing the tempo) and Morrison taking charge and you only need to read boxscores, play by plays to get that feel...85 combined shots at half is fairly high paced...

Good Luck tonite Malibu , nice to see someone else here actually plays the sport as well..riding USC myself would be gravy if I get the Over...
 
So true man. I can't follow every team. Certain teams I track and know their rhythm. But CHA is on my radar now. GL to you as well. I think you made you're O.
 
SportsNut said:
I think Charlotte in the past 6, 7 games has find out how to play w/o Knight and seen some maturation from Morrison. They are not the same Bobcats they were week ago and a great indicator is how off what some players calle dthe best game and win in franchise history they went into Indy off 3 OTs and won SU! AS BetCrimes said usually a letdown spot for them after a big win.....the Kitties are growing into Bobcats.....
Click to expand...

Very true. Even thou Wallace was out, I paid respect to the fact that they're functioning at a level hgher than before sans Knight, when passing on the Under. It didnt help that Minny had recently started to buck their general under road trend. Enough signs there for me to pass, given I never see anything live. And of course underneath all that was the trend thread calling for Overs.

Congrats on the win, Nut.
 
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