new to the forum - Week 8 picks

raysmuckles

Member
I will post these earlier next week.

Baltimore/New Orleans -2
I think there are a lot of different ways to look at this game. Both teams are off a bye, so they should be healthy and prepared. I think the best stat for this game is NO 5-1 ATS, but should note they are 1-1 as a fave. I think McNair is done and J. Lewis is apathetic, Baltimore will have to get it done with their defense. The Saints should play conservative (wear down w/ Bush and McAllister) and win by 3, like they have the last two games at home.
Jacksonville +8.5/Philadelphia
This is a value play. I know the Jags are bad on the road (0-3) and this is their second straight road game. I know the Eagles are coming off consecutive road losses and are poised for a come-home win. When this line opened, I thought the play was PHI ML, but was going to lay off since McNabb has been sketchy. Now that the line has taken off, I think there is value in the 8.5 points. Gerrard is a solid backup, and I think the line reacted too aggresively to the news of his start.
Tampa Bay +10/New York Giants
This is another value play, in the same vein as the previous. Gradkowski has been solid in his three starts, underdog of at least 5 pts in all three and covered the spread in each. I certainly think the Giants are capable of winning this game, but they are coming off a short week. I do not think this will be a blowout.
St. Louis +9.5/San Diego
St. Louis/San Diego Over 23 1H
St. Louis +6.5/San Diego 1H
As you can see, I like this game a lot. I've read alot on this board and others about this game and there seems to be a consensus that the Rams are better than this line, and the Chargers are worse than it. The San Diego defense to be a hostile environment right now, with all the legal troubles, steroid accusations and injury woes. I think this will turn into a shootout, and St. Louis will be able to keep up. Another road dog play, I'm starting to see a trend.
Indianapolis/Denver -2.5
Denver has the biggest home field advantage of anyone in the league. I feel safe that they can win by a field goal home. Manning got pretty banged up last week against the Redskins, and the Broncos D will be applying the pressure. I like this as a public fade as well (caught up in the hype of an undefeated team).
New York Jets/Cleveland Over 38
This was an early lean and more of a gut call than anything else. Pennington can put up points on the road and the Browns seem to be looking at a blowout. I think they may have already quit.
Dallas/Carolina -5.5
I've always heard that losing your first start is a right of passage for an nfl qb. Carolina should be able to handle Romo, as they return home after two close road games, going 1-1. The Panthers need this win to stay competitive in their dysfunctional division.
 
With you on New Orleans, Carolina, and Denver. No real opinion about the others. The total looks like an under to me, but what do I know. I also lean towards SD-they are a MUCH better team at home vs. on the road.
 
I can't wait to read what your thoughts are every week. You'll definately be an asset to this forum. Love your thoughts and plays. Good Luck this week.
 
Welcome, Ray. Great thread, and loved reading your thoughts.
With you on a couple as well. BOL this sunday, bro.
 
Thanks everyone, I've been busy this weekend, I wish to discuss more next week. Should be some interesting games today, best of luck to all.
 
Love the tampa blay. COughlin sounded really worried on the radio. He thought tampa should have won their last 4 games. This should be a low scoring affair. Eli wont be able to bomb it out.. and Tampas offense is made for windy conditions. NY missing a bunch of defenders and playin on a short week.. Looks tasty
 
holy shit this was a bad week.

raysmuckles said:
I will post these earlier next week.

Baltimore/New Orleans -2
I think there are a lot of different ways to look at this game. Both teams are off a bye, so they should be healthy and prepared. I think the best stat for this game is NO 5-1 ATS, but should note they are 1-1 as a fave. I think McNair is done and J. Lewis is apathetic, Baltimore will have to get it done with their defense. The Saints should play conservative (wear down w/ Bush and McAllister) and win by 3, like they have the last two games at home.​

LOSS. What genius thought running the Reggie Bush option play against the Baltimore defense was a good idea? Add in Brees' 3 INT, and my grind-it-out forecast of this game was way off from the circus that resulted.

raysmuckles said:
Jacksonville +8.5/Philadelphia
This is a value play. I know the Jags are bad on the road (0-3) and this is their second straight road game. I know the Eagles are coming off consecutive road losses and are poised for a come-home win. When this line opened, I thought the play was PHI ML, but was going to lay off since McNabb has been sketchy. Now that the line has taken off, I think there is value in the 8.5 points. Gerrard is a solid backup, and I think the line reacted too aggresively to the news of his start.​

WIN. Garrard comes through, the lone bright spot in my week.

raysmuckles said:
Tampa Bay +10/New York Giants
This is another value play, in the same vein as the previous. Gradkowski has been solid in his three starts, underdog of at least 5 pts in all three and covered the spread in each. I certainly think the Giants are capable of winning this game, but they are coming off a short week. I do not think this will be a blowout.​

LOSS. I blame Gruden for coughing up the ball in the 4th qtr when they needed to score on every drive, and couldn't even manage a 1st down.

raysmuckles said:
St. Louis +9.5/San Diego
St. Louis/San Diego Over 23 1H
St. Louis +6.5/San Diego 1H
As you can see, I like this game a lot. I've read alot on this board and others about this game and there seems to be a consensus that the Rams are better than this line, and the Chargers are worse than it. The San Diego defense to be a hostile environment right now, with all the legal troubles, steroid accusations and injury woes. I think this will turn into a shootout, and St. Louis will be able to keep up. Another road dog play, I'm starting to see a trend.​

3 LOSSES. This one killed me. Especially missing the half-time bets by such narrow margins.

raysmuckles said:
Indianapolis/Denver -2.5
Denver has the biggest home field advantage of anyone in the league. I feel safe that they can win by a field goal home. Manning got pretty banged up last week against the Redskins, and the Broncos D will be applying the pressure. I like this as a public fade as well (caught up in the hype of an undefeated team).​

LOSS. Another heartbreaker. Colts stay undefeated, and I will fade them next week in foxborough.

raysmuckles said:
New York Jets/Cleveland Over 38
This was an early lean and more of a gut call than anything else. Pennington can put up points on the road and the Browns seem to be looking at a blowout. I think they may have already quit.​

LOSS. Dumb bet, I don't have any excuse for this one.

raysmuckles said:
Dallas/Carolina -5.5
I've always heard that losing your first start is a right of passage for an nfl qb. Carolina should be able to handle Romo, as they return home after two close road games, going 1-1. The Panthers need this win to stay competitive in their dysfunctional division.​

LOSS. Panthers slip to 4-4. NFC East and South are becoming very interesting.

1-8. I keep reminding myself that it's just as difficult to go 1-8 as it is to go 8-1. Would like to win back some dignity tonight with NE, havent locked in a bet yet.
 
welcome, ray. Looks like you'll end your week/end on a high at least (knock on wood).

I'm always of a view that its better to have a few strong[er] plays than have a large card and to bank on being unable to be destroyed by a loss or 2. Maybe in time your comfort zone will shift to fewer plays, maybe it wont.
 
That is good advice. I've seen you post some great things at covers (detailed statistical analysis from unique angles). Glad to see you here and thanks for the comment.
 
Back
Top