New member BC vs FSU pick write up

[Ccon the Contrarian]

new to CTG but proven on other sites, pregame, ncaab contributor for the Saturday edge .. Have an ncaaf play tonight

Free Pick 9.18.15
posted 52 minutes ago by C Con


Florida State -9 at Boston College

Florida State opens ups its ACC play with a trip to Boston College. Florida State struggled against USF last week in an early game, 12 est, but pulled away late (still not covering the 28 point spread). Meanwhile Boston College has played two very weak FBS teams, and crushing both of them by a combined 100-3. So we still don't know what we have with either team. Boston College is historically a running team but they are working with a new group up front and starting sophomore Darius Wade at quarterback. Florida State will hope to see some improvement from Everett Golson who was 1-7 in the first have vs USF. In recent memory Boston College has fared well vs Florida state, Last season Florida State needed a last second field goal to win as 17 point favorites. The previous year FSU was down at half but was able to come back and win by 14 but not come close to covering the 23 point spread. The difference in those games is FSU was 10-0, 6-0 and Boston College caught them in look ahead spots. Plus they were getting double digit points. Its a little different this game as FSU is opening ACC play looking to prove they belong in the top 10.

Vegas impact:

The line opened at -9 and moved down to -7.5 before moving back up to -9 and -9.5 in some places. There is not a big Vegas liability in this game as opinions are split. There has been some sharp divide on this game and public has caught on to the struggle of ranked teams ATS early in the season. Also all trends point to BC as the play in this one but for the reasons I mentioned above those stats are misleading. Vegas put out an accurate line and some people jumped the gun blindly betting the dog in this one. I then jumped in at -7.5 early this AM and bough a little more at -8.5. I still like it at -9 and despite FSU not covering 5 out of their last 6 (going back to last season), they will not be overlooking this one. This line is an overreaction to public blindly betting dogs and following meaningless trends.


Florida State -9 is the pick

 

[dudleysdad]

So this is a "free pick"?
Thanks man :shake:

 

[Play2win]

Welcome to the site and best of luck :cheers3:

 

[smo1a]

Free? Is there another we can buy? Lol

 

[dg84]

GL, but since when does the public blindly bet dogs?

 

[bones]

Free? Is there another we can buy? Lol

:rofl::rofl:

 

[Play2win]

He is a contributor for The Saturday Edge, a partner of CTG...please show respect.

 

[D.D.]

Thanks.

 

[B.A.R.]

:cheers3:

 

[smo1a]

He is a contributor for The Saturday Edge, a partner of CTG...please show respect.

:shake: given some of the clowns that have come and gone trying to peddle their picks, it would be easy to misinterpret the "free" in his post. Good luck bud :cheers3:

 

[bones]

:shake: given some of the clowns that have come and gone trying to peddle their picks, it would be easy to misinterpret the "free" in his post. Good luck bud :cheers3:

ditto

 

[eggman]

Oops

 

[dudleysdad]

Oops

Show respect

 

[Fondybadger]

Welcome and thanks for posting it up on CTG.

 

[Fondybadger]

Free? Is there another we can buy? Lol

There is http://www.saturdayedge.com/

However, they are only posting information and free wagers on CTG as we agreed to and are not promoting their paid content. While people may disagree about the selling of picks, or the reasoning behind a wager, we shouldn't ever be upset with someone giving their opinion and a talking point. Talking about the games is the reason we're all here. I would much rather see someone posting their thoughts and reasons on why they like a wager (even if i disagree with it) than some scrub like me posting loser after loser without any reasoning.

I'll also reiterate that we have access to all paid content and everything I have seen has been on the up and up. If that were to ever change they would no longer be associated with CTG.

 

[Ccon the Contrarian]

Thanks guys, here's one im on today looking at 2 more, ill post later



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South Carolina +16.5 at Georgia


Quarterback play is in question for both teams heading into this matchup. SC lost starter Connor Mitch in a loss to Kentucky last week, while the Bulldogs are trying to see if Virginia's castoff quarterback can answer the call for them (Greyson Lambert lost the QB job at Virginia and transferred to Georgia). Georgia's Lambert looked shaky vs Vanderbilt last week but they never really opened up the playbook for him. Sc's Perry Orth did well vs Kentucky minus one costly turnover. Both defenses look good but SC is giving up an average of 207.5 yard after their first two games. That's one thing Georgia knows how to do is run the ball. Nick Chubb will lead the rushing attack and expects to be a big factor despite playing on a sprained ankle. One point I believe is key coming into this game is SC has had to open up their playbook and use everything they have just to be at 1-1 on the season, while Georgia has not really showed much in their first two games. If Georgia comes out to make a statement and opens it up, we could see the true potential today of a team that is projected to contented for a playoff spot.


Vegas Impact:


There will not be a huge handle on this game as the Notre Dame, Bama matchups will be the bigger bet games of the day. Expect this game to generate some decent action being nationally televised on ESPN. The public is backing SC and the points in this one as SC has beat Georgia 4 out of their last 5. Only one time has Georgia beat SC by more then 17 points in the last ten years. These are the type of stats the public backs. They are meaningless trends that have nothing to do with todays outcome, but I see decent money on SC with the points. The line opened at 15.5 and some sharp money moved it to -17, the public (and wannabe sharp- blindly fading ranked teams) money has come back in on SC moving the line back to 16.5 and 16 in some spots.


I'm going the other way, the line is slightly off, but in the other direction. This could be Georgia -19, but hat would put to much liability on he books.


Georgia -16.5 is my play!!

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