Needs to Win or who is Sitting Thread.

I know we will get more official words as the games come closer, but really the only 2 teams that have the least to play for, that are in the playoffs, are TBB/NYG.
 
So tough to win money on the final week imo ...

Often the teams that need to win , don't....

A few years back the locals here got rich as the BILLS won in a meaningless blowout with basically the practice squad 3/4 [of the game over Miami who needed to win for a playoff spot ...
One of the largest locals here adjusted his line to encourage tons of Dolphins money, bragged afterwards that he raked up Miami money from other books dumping it off .
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
So tough to win money on the final week imo ...

Often the teams that need to win , don't....

A few years back the locals here got rich as the BILLS won in a meaningless blowout with basically the practice squad 3/4 [of the game over Miami who needed to win for a playoff spot ...
One of the largest locals here adjusted his line to encourage tons of Dolphins money, bragged afterwards that he raked up Miami money from other books dumping it off .
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That crazy year where I think 6 or 7 things had to happen and did for KC to get into the playoffs

Watched it all unfold in SD and it was amazing how everyone that needed to win couldn't. '06 or '07 maybe? New Year's weekend
 
Does seem like the last several seasons the team that needs to win does so and covers pretty easily though
 
KJ said:
Only if 6 and 7 win too

Guess they'd get the South winner which is an advantage for sure
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Yeah, especially if the Tits advance.

Either way, both conferenced have a 4 seed that likely is a small dog at home.
 
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VirginiaCavs said:
Chargers would get the 5 seed if they win. Is that such a big deal to them?
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I would have to think a trip to Nashville or Jacksonville is preferred over going to Kansas City/Buffalo or Cincy and then having to beat one of the other two the following week if they prevail in the first game. It seems like an important game for the Chargers for that reason alone. I'm trying to figure out why they went from being -3 to +2. Definitely a huge swing and it's unfathomable that their coaching staff wouldn't see the value of winning this game.
 
MusicCityGambler said:
I would have to think a trip to Nashville or Jacksonville is preferred over going to Kansas City/Buffalo or Cincy and then having to beat one of the other two the following week if they prevail in the first game. It seems like an important game for the Chargers for that reason alone. I'm trying to figure out why they went from being -3 to +2. Definitely a huge swing and it's unfathomable that their coaching staff wouldn't see the value of winning this game.
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Maybe this is why: Chargers news: Justin Herbert added to injury report Wednesday
 
If Bal loses, then LAC has the 5 seed and doesn’t need to win. NFL has Ravens at 1:00 and Chargers at 4.

I would think LAC sits starters once they see Bal lose earlier in the day.
 
Tin&Lint said:
If Bal loses, then LAC has the 5 seed and doesn’t need to win. NFL has Ravens at 1:00 and Chargers at 4.

I would think LAC sits starters once they see Bal lose earlier in the day.
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You're betting on the Bengals to win after all of this?

Obviously they should but I wouldn't count on them being sharp at all
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
So tough to win money on the final week imo ...

Often the teams that need to win , don't....

A few years back the locals here got rich as the BILLS won in a meaningless blowout with basically the practice squad 3/4 [of the game over Miami who needed to win for a playoff spot ...
One of the largest locals here adjusted his line to encourage tons of Dolphins money, bragged afterwards that he raked up Miami money from other books dumping it off .
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I love this week cause I like fading the teams who “must win”! What I find super interesting more than sides this week (although I love me some rams vs seattle who “needs it”, jets vs fish who “need it”, and maybe lions vs packers who everyone convinced gonna win and get in!) most the totals seem really low! The weather much better around most the country this week and I tend to think teams who “not playing for anything” far more likely to play good offense than defense. I like a lot of overs this week which really out of character for me.
 
CPA-hole said:
That slot is called the Houston slot. I swear they were that 1st playoff game, 3:30 game every year. Usually vs the Bengals.
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Naturally here we have people from all over and the Houston thing was so funny. Was fun meeting up with a crew of fans and it was a running joke about who they'd play on Sat afternoon. Losers (plural) bought rounds for everyone, was just a willing participant but usually hammered by the end of the game. Seems like it was v Bengals/Colts/Dolphins...hell I don't know but never a memorable game. :rofl:
 
Was always the one game that you could commit time to the significant other so she wouldn't bother you the rest of the weekend.

Think there was a Jets/Chiefs game one year that was so forgettable it was somewhat memorable
 
KJ said:
Naturally here we have people from all over and the Houston thing was so funny. Was fun meeting up with a crew of fans and it was a running joke about who they'd play on Sat afternoon. Losers (plural) bought rounds for everyone, was just a willing participant but usually hammered by the end of the game. Seems like it was v Bengals/Colts/Dolphins...hell I don't know but never a memorable game. :rofl:
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Pretty sure one year it was the raiders after carr broke his leg the week prior, def bengals w Dalton once or twice: Usually 1td and bout 6 fgs total.
 
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2daBank said:
Pretty sure one year it was the raiders after carr broke his leg the week prior, def bengals w Dalton once or twice: Usually 1td and bout 6 fgs total.
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Our path to the SB in 2009 involved two of those games. Home against ATL then at CAR, both the early Sat window which created some insanely drunk Sat nights. Gave them no choice but to play Philly on Sunday the next week!
 
KJ said:
Our path to the SB in 2009 involved two of those games. Home against ATL then at CAR, both the early Sat window which created some insanely drunk Sat nights. Gave them no choice but to play Philly on Sunday the next week!
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My memory isn’t good enough but I assume it a safe bet those cards games were much better watches than the obrien led houston shit shows I don’t think ever got into the 20s, in fairness to him he always had some awful qb so even being in the playoffs was kinda impressive. I’d think giants/minny be a early Saturday candidate this year, jags/chargers be a bigger showcase maybe, if it titans then yes for sure them!
 
2daBank said:
My memory isn’t good enough but I assume it a safe bet those cards games were much better watches than the obrien led houston shit shows I don’t think ever got into the 20s, in fairness to him he always had some awful qb so even being in the playoffs was kinda impressive. I’d think giants/minny be a early Saturday candidate this year, I’d think jags/chargers be a bigger showcase.
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No chance the Giants are early Saturday, NY market gets prime spot however you slice it

Curious for me is how they treat Chargers, SD was always a candidate for a shit spot but not sure how they treat LA

Jax will always be an early Saturday candidate, virtually no viewership numbers. Probably ranked last in the NFL
 
KJ said:
No chance the Giants are early Saturday, NY market gets prime spot however you slice it

Curious for me is how they treat Chargers, SD was always a candidate for a shit spot but not sure how they treat LA

Jax will always be an early Saturday candidate, virtually no viewership numbers. Probably ranked last in the NFL
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The Monday night game throws a mon key wrench in it for me. Not sure which 'type' of game they want.

If you have Cowboys/TB and GB/SF I'd assume those are 2 likely for Primetime.
 
KJ said:
No chance the Giants are early Saturday, NY market gets prime spot however you slice it

Curious for me is how they treat Chargers, SD was always a candidate for a shit spot but not sure how they treat LA

Jax will always be an early Saturday candidate, virtually no viewership numbers. Probably ranked last in the NFL
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I'd bet money Jags vs Chargers are the Saturday afternoon game next week ( if they match up )
 
CPA-hole said:
The Monday night game throws a Mouse wrench in it for me. Not sure which 'type' of game they want.

If you have Cowboys/TB and GB/SF I'd assume those are 2 likely for Primetime.
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Yeah Dallas/NY/SF/GB will always be prime

SF is the only team West that commands it, NE/PIT do but not going to be there. South is CFB so none of those teams get prime time....rare flier is KC because Mahomes. Can't think of another market that's relevant to tv execs. Philly maybe
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
I'd bet money Jags vs Chargers are the Saturday afternoon game next week ( if they match up )
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Yeah as I just posted, probably only a handful of markets that get the night gigs

NFL has to hate NE and PIT not being involved this year
 
KJ said:
Yeah Dallas/NY/SF/GB will always be prime

SF is the only team West that commands it, NE/PIT do but not going to be there. South is CFB so none of those teams get prime time....rare flier is KC because Mahomes. Can't think of another market that's relevant to tv execs. Philly maybe
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Yes Pitts or NE would be on primetime as well.
 
Brass is praying that GB qualify

I kinda am too. Don't like them, but they can make a massive run
 
KJ said:
No chance the Giants are early Saturday, NY market gets prime spot however you slice it

Curious for me is how they treat Chargers, SD was always a candidate for a shit spot but not sure how they treat LA

Jax will always be an early Saturday candidate, virtually no viewership numbers. Probably ranked last in the NFL
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It 2 of the best young qbs in the league; I’m not sure it matters what market they in, maybe you right but seems like they be wasting a opportunity to showcase some the good after a mostly shit show season w a lot of bad. I considered the fact it ny but I just think they be crazy to give that game a bigger spotlight than Lawrence vs Herbert. Gmen minny won’t be a snoozer tho so you prob right, just won’t be as good as jags/chargers could be.
 
2daBank said:
It 2 of the best young qbs in the league; I’m not sure it matters what market they in, maybe you right but seems like they be wasting a opportunity to showcase some the good after a mostly shit show season w a lot of bad. I considered the fact it ny but I just think they be crazy to give that game a bigger spotlight than Lawrence vs Herbert. Gmen minny won’t be a snoozer tho so you prob right, just won’t be as good as jags/chargers could be.
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Yeah marketing execs don't think like fans or gamblers at all. They look at the front of the jersey and the helmet before even caring about the name on the back

Chargers v Jags would be a Sat afternoon classic tho!

Only reason KC can make prime time is Mahomes, not Arrowhead rocking at decibels never heard
 
I was listening to some podcast the other night and they pulled up some stat since 1990 a team that been eliminated playing a team who needs to win to get in the “bad” team covers 62%.
 
2daBank said:
I was listening to some podcast the other night and they pulled up some stat since 1990 a team that been eliminated playing a team who needs to win to get in the “bad” team covers 62%.
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Yeah lots of people forget many of these guys are auditioning for a job next season, they don't care about the team at this point

Not like NBA where you're guaranteed, these guys on bad teams are on the brink of being unemployed
 
KJ said:
Yeah lots of people forget many of these guys are auditioning for a job next season, they don't care about the team at this point

Not like NBA where you're guaranteed, these guys on bad teams are on the brink of being unemployed
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Yea it pretty rare you don’t get effort in nfl, besides that these teams who “must win” the last week of the year ain’t really all that good. In most cases the “bad” team they playing not really much worse a team. That why I’ve always liked to fade the must win teams, if they were capable of winning games they had to they prob wouldn’t be in this spot.
 
2daBank said:
Yea it pretty rare you don’t get effort in nfl, besides that these teams who “must win” the last week of the year ain’t really all that good. In most cases the “bad” team they playing not really much worse a team. That why I’ve always liked to fade the must win teams, if they were capable of winning games they had to they prob wouldn’t be in this spot.
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Used to be chaos

Seems like the last few years the teams that need to win do but I'm down with that reverting to the mean

NFL has become watered down like all other American sports...they used to have that edge. Does anyone really expect a 5-7 seed in the AFC to make the SB? It's become less fun on WC weekend.
 
KJ said:
Used to be chaos

Seems like the last few years the teams that need to win do but I'm down with that reverting to the mean

NFL has become watered down like all other American sports...they used to have that edge. Does anyone really expect a 5-7 seed in the AFC to make the SB? It's become less fun on WC weekend.
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Wernt bengals one those 5-7 seeds last year? The 5s on both sides pretty strong: the 7s will always be trash, we knew that was coming when they did this stupid ass playoff expansion.
 
2daBank said:
Wernt bengals one those 5-7 seeds last year? The 5s on both sides pretty strong: the 7s will always be trash, we knew that was coming when they did this stupid ass playoff expansion.
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To this point, do you know someone that doesn't gamble that was jonesing to see the Bengals play last year? I don't.
 
KJ said:
To this point, do you know someone that doesn't gamble that was jonesing to see the Bengals play last year? I don't.
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I couldn’t wait to pound the titans against them! Lol. Still can’t believe they made it with that oline!
 
I actually think the commoners (lol) were kinda excited by the bengals cause they had all those weapons, it was the idiots like me who think they know things who got killed fading their oline. Now I think they prob the best team in the afc so of course they will lose early!
 
2daBank said:
I couldn’t wait to pound the titans against them! Lol. Still can’t believe they made it with that oline!
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Packers bar down the way...terrible at figuring numbers so I'll make it a wide range. There will be 700-1000 Pack fans there tomorrow night. Before gambling was legal here, I'd say maybe 10 of them had action, now it's probably closer to 50. Just a guess.

We think that everything revolves around gambling and/or fantasy football but that simply isn't the truth. It's markets and I hope that doesn't change. Team like GB/Giants/Steez/Boys/Iggs/Pats are great for the sport

Just gotta realize that there is a small fraction that care about the spread. Crazy, I get it, that there are fans out there who drive markets that aren't gamblers.
 
KJ said:
Packers bar down the way...terrible at figuring numbers so I'll make it a wide range. There will be 700-1000 Pack fans there tomorrow night. Before gambling was legal here, I'd say maybe 10 of them had action, now it's probably closer to 50. Just a guess.

We think that everything revolves around gambling and/or fantasy football but that simply isn't the truth. It's markets and I hope that doesn't change. Team like GB/Giants/Steez/Boys/Iggs/Pats are great for the sport

Just gotta realize that there is a small fraction that care about the spread. Crazy, I get it, that there are fans out there who drive markets that aren't gamblers.
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I think football is the biggest exception to this. Maybe I’m wrong but feel like market doesn’t mean nearly as much for them. I know certain teams do draw more but for most part it not nearly as important as other sports.
 
2daBank said:
I think football is the biggest exception to this. Maybe I’m wrong but feel like market doesn’t mean nearly as much for them. I know certain teams do draw more but for most part it not nearly as important as other sports.
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And I think it's more important than any other sport

No other sport has the chick at the mall (I know, but it's the point) calling in sick like NFL sports. Packers, Bears, Niners, Cowboys....etc

There isn't another sport that duplicates that

Maybe soccer in S America is the closest thing to NFL here regarding markets
 
KJ said:
And I think it's more important than any other sport

No other sport has the chick at the mall (I know, but it's the point) calling in sick like NFL sports. Packers, Bears, Niners, Cowboys....etc

There isn't another sport that duplicates that

Maybe soccer in S America is the closest thing to NFL here regarding markets
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Ok but far as ratings goes nfl gets them whatever shit they throw into a prime slot. Sure it higher w some teams but it doesn’t go in the gutter like other sports without certain markets.
 
2daBank said:
Ok but far as ratings goes nfl gets them whatever shit they throw into a prime slot. Sure it higher w some teams but it doesn’t go in the gutter like other sports without certain markets.
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Unlike you and me, most people aren't giving up an entire weekend for football. It's not feasible.

There are 4 weekend time slots and the early Saturday game will always be the one that gets tossed if you are in marketing/sales....it's simply the easiest to dismiss. It will always have the lowest viewership of the 4 games and suits don't want to waste that on a large market team.
 
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