NCAAF Week 9

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 1: 27-13 (+28.60 units)
Week 2: 37-16 (+25.30 units)
Week 3: 24-14 (+10.70 units)
Week 4: 23-22 (-10.40 units)
Week 5: 21-18 (+6.00 units)
Week 6: 22-7 (+21.84 units)
Week 7: 21-15 (+8.65 units)
Week 8: 19-19 (-1.82 units)
Overall: 194-124 (+88.87 units)

GOY (Games played in futures market)

Mississippi State -4 v Texas A&M -120 (1 unit)
Florida +15 vs. Georgia -120 (1 unit)
 
Wow. Florida is getting 15?

Figured it would be between 8 to 10. We haven't looked that sharp all year. Curious to see if they transition to more of a ground and pound and some play action mixed in.
 
crawdads said:
Wow. Florida is getting 15?

Figured it would be between 8 to 10. We haven't looked that sharp all year. Curious to see if they transition to more of a ground and pound and some play action mixed in.
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I bet the game in the summer. I imagine it will be about 7 when it comes out today.
 
crawdads said:
Wow. Florida is getting 15?

Figured it would be between 8 to 10. We haven't looked that sharp all year. Curious to see if they transition to more of a ground and pound and some play action mixed in.
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I bet I mean nobody wants to rely on Franks to win it for them
 
I was completely caught off guard by Milton not playing. Had you heard anything about that prior to kickoff?
 
RetroVK said:
I was completely caught off guard by Milton not playing. Had you heard anything about that prior to kickoff?
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Same. Hadn't heard a peep. Knew Ahlers was getting the start and that's what put me on the over. He delivered, nearly 500 yards offense by his lonesome but the Milton decision coupled with that anomoly in ECU scoring killed any chance at an over or ECU side cash.
 
Paleales75 said:
ECU Has an awful OC, they ran HA 27 times at one point they called 4 straight QB dives, Holton fumbled on the 4th.
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I don't mind running HA 27 times from a short term point of view, this is the staffs last year anyway so I get they just wanna go all out and long term health may be less of a concern. I call him Tim Tebow of the Appalachias. The sequencing and timing that you mentioned are where I take issue.
 
Western Michigan +2.5 v Toledo -110 (2 units)
Colorado State +3.5 v Wyoming -110 (1 unit)
Utah -9.5 @ UCLA -110 (1 unit)

Purdue +3 @ Michigan State -110 (1.5 units)
Duke -2.5 @ Pitt -105 (1 unit)
Cal +14 v Washington -110 (1.5 units)
Florida +10 v Georgia -110 (1 unit)
Kentucky +7 @ Missouri -110 (1 unit)
Iowa +10 @ Penn State -110 (1.5 units)
Navy +22 v Notre Dame -110 (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
Western Michigan +2.5 v Toledo -110 (2 units)
Colorado State +3.5 v Wyoming -110 (1 unit)
Utah -9.5 @ UCLA -110 (1 unit)

Purdue +3 @ Michigan State -110 (1.5 units)
Duke -2.5 @ Pitt -105 (1 unit)
Cal +14 v Washington -110 (1.5 units)
Florida +10 v Georgia -110 (1 unit)
Kentucky +7 @ Missouri -110 (1 unit)
Iowa +10 @ Penn State -110 (1.5 units)
Navy +22 v Notre Dame -110 (1 unit)
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I figured once I was done that I would see that you were on WMU as I got that one right out of the gate and just missed the better number but still like my 3. Surprised you weren't on Ga Southern as I knew that my plays on it weren't enough by themselves to move the line as much as it did so thought for sure that I would see you on it once I finished locking my plays. Continued success this week!
 
Ball State/Ohio Over 59.5 -110 (1 unit)
App St/Ga Southern Under 52.5 -110 (2.5 units)
GT/VT Under 60.5 -110 (2 units)
Miami/BC Under 54/58 -110 (3.5 units)
Army/EMU Over 46.5 -110 (1 unit)
UMass/UConn Over 71 -110 (2 units)
Oregon State/Colorado Under 65.5 -110 (1 unit)
UAB/UTEP Over 47.5 -110 (1 unit)
ASU/USC Over 51.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Washington/Cal Over 44.5 -110 (1 unit)
Georgia/Florida Under 57 -110 (2 units)
Kentucky/Missouri Under 56 -110 (1 unit)
Tennessee/South Carolina Over 52 -110 (1 unit)
USF/Houston Over 71/72 avg price -112 (3 units)
Arkansas State/ULL Over 64 -110 (1 unit)
Vanderbilt/Arkansas Over 49.5 -110 (1 unit)
Navy/Notre Dame Under 56 -105 (1 unit)
 
If/when you get time this week, talk to me more about Geo So and Appy St.

Thanks.

That Georgia-Florida UNDER is SEXY.
 
B.A.R. said:
If/when you get time this week, talk to me more about Geo So and Appy St.

Thanks.

That Georgia-Florida UNDER is SEXY.
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Sure thing. Will give some thoughts tomorrow. Too much time away from my family on sat-mon so once I get caught up there I’ll share.
 
On the umass and usf overs as well. Circled the umass one a week back. Was just able to lock in so not the value you get but like them nonetheless. BOL this week
 
B.A.R. said:
If/when you get time this week, talk to me more about Geo So and Appy St.

Thanks.

That Georgia-Florida UNDER is SEXY.
Click to expand...

App St @ Ga Southern (+14/45) App State dominated GSU in 2015, 2016 and 2017 (31-13, 34-10, 27-6). That's a strong history of shutting down this offense, which is very significant to way I cap. New DC, but they promoted from within so I imagine we see same, even with a better GSU offense. App State offense doesn't run tons of volume but are excellent on a per play basis - both raw and adj. Pass pro is excellent, but overall pass offense isn't - they rely on big plays. App St excellent defense overall. Ga So slightly below avg defense but have ability to keep App St somewhat in check as long as they dont give up too many chunk plays. App State numbers got a bit trumped up early this season but they havent cracked 400 yards in their past two games against two sub-par defenses, Arkansas State and ULL. Georgia Southern offense has really only taken advantage of the terrible defenses they have faced, they haven't done anything of significance against a good defense. The best two front 7's they have faced are Clemson and Texas State (how bout that for disparity?!) and they managed 140 yards and 215 yards while scoring 7 and 15 points. App State will be closest thing to Clemson that GSU faces this year on defense - both in their talent and history of defeating this offense. I think this going to be a very boring, slow paced, slug it out game where App St wins pretty comfortably.
 
mater said:
Any thoughts on tonight’s game Troy @ SALA? Appreciate your response
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Not really. I am still not sure how much Troy's QB change has impacted them. My friend whose CFB opinion I trust most of anyone I know seems to think it's a major downgrade in their vertical passing game and sets them back on offense a good bit. I will watch and learn tonight.
 
Tulane +3 @ Tulsa -115 (1.5 units)

Looks like it’ll be Boomer and President at QB for Tulsa the rest of season with Skipper just being ruled OFY. Both guys are awful. Tulane ran for 488 yards on Tulsa last year and scored 62 points. Tulsa rush defense still amongst worst in CFB and their very good pass defense does little for them here. Big coaching mismatch in favor of Green Wave.
 
Thoughts on cal, CK? They have looked terrible early on in the season. I realize they bear up on the beavers last week, but who hasn’t? Are you buying into the qb change and the players only meeting stuff? Or do you just like the matchup? Thanks in advance...

Also, what do you make of the 9-pts-and-counting
Line move in favor of west mich?
 
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mcculra said:
Thoughts on cal, CK? They have looked terrible early on in the season. I realize they bear up on the beavers last week, but who hasn’t? Are you buying into the qb change and the players only meeting stuff? Or do you just like the matchup? Thanks in advance...
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I just played two bad numbers. Not a game I had targeted but saw 14 and couldnt pass. Same with total, 44.5 is generally a pretty inappropriate total for a CFB game. Cal has been much better than what their results have shown, IMO. I do like the choice to go with Garbers at QB but I dont know anything about a player's only meeting so I didnt factor that in. I think Washington is generally pretty down relative to what we've seen past couple years. I have a friend with media credentials to their games, knows the program well, and he has been telling me about how unimpressed he has been with the Wash DL and front 7. Think Cal can have some balance on offense and Laird got going big time last week. Cal pass defense is outstanding and I generally dislike Browning against any above average pass defense, neither QB likely to light things up. Think it's something like a 28-20, 30-17, 30-20, 31-21 type game.
 
" I generally dislike Browning against any above average pass defense," - totally agree on that statement from everything I have seen from him. GL this week CK.
 
Browning is making mistakes this year that he didn‘t used to make like throwing a pick cause he didn‘t recognize bad side defender thats just bad vision. Locking in too closely onto receiver
 
CrimsonK said:
I just played two bad numbers. Not a game I had targeted but saw 14 and couldnt pass. Same with total, 44.5 is generally a pretty inappropriate total for a CFB game. Cal has been much better than what their results have shown, IMO. I do like the choice to go with Garbers at QB but I dont know anything about a player's only meeting so I didnt factor that in. I think Washington is generally pretty down relative to what we've seen past couple years. I have a friend with media credentials to their games, knows the program well, and he has been telling me about how unimpressed he has been with the Wash DL and front 7. Think Cal can have some balance on offense and Laird got going big time last week. Cal pass defense is outstanding and I generally dislike Browning against any above average pass defense, neither QB likely to light things up. Think it's something like a 28-20, 30-17, 30-20, 31-21 type game.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the response. GL this week!
 
Noticed you are on the ASU USC over 51.5. Daniels is in concussion protocol and Fink appears to be ruled out due to cracked ribs. Third string qb most likely starting for USC. Wondering what your basis is on this play... I don't understand the Trojans being favored 6.5 here. I feel like I am missing something. Thanks in advance for any response!
 
RBTrojan said:
Noticed you are on the ASU USC over 51.5. Daniels is in concussion protocol and Fink appears to be ruled out due to cracked ribs. Third string qb most likely starting for USC. Wondering what your basis is on this play... I don't understand the Trojans being favored 6.5 here. I feel like I am missing something. Thanks in advance for any response!
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Thanks for the updates, I am aware of the QB situation. That is what kept it as a 1.5 unit play for me and not larger. It's up to 55 so mission accomplished, to this point. Offensive staff, at minimum, coaching for their jobs here. Tempo should be very fast. The challenge is adjusting for QB if it's not Daniels.I prefer it be him, but honestly, he has regressed pretty sizably the past several weeks but I at least know the upside I get with him where with Sears it's kinda unknown. Way I figure, he's still a USC QB so I think he is able to line up and throw to a really good WR group. I know the USC run game has been terrible but ASU is vulnerable in that area. You know how beat up the USC LBs are and I think the ASU offense can stress them with their balance. Utah just did whatever they wanted to USC last week using a mobile QB and I do think this is a good matchup for ASU. As far as the line, I agree with you that it's too high.
 
Umass/UCOnn Under 71 -115 (1 unit)

Reducing this to essentially just .5 u on over. Still a bit early to put bunch of confidence in forecasts but this seems likely.
 
  • Cloudy with occasional showers late at night. Low 41F. Winds SE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Could have some advantageous weather Friday night for BC game
 
Curious if you have any thoughts on ucla+10. This is one i want to play but every stone i turn is in utah’s favor. I probably should pass but there is something that keeps bringing me back to the points.
 
rambler882 said:
Curious if you have any thoughts on ucla+10. This is one i want to play but every stone i turn is in utah’s favor. I probably should pass but there is something that keeps bringing me back to the points.
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I took Utah -9.5. I would have passed if DTR were healthy but this Ute defense takes away run game so well and they should eat Speight.
 
CrimsonK said:
I took Utah -9.5. I would have passed if DTR were healthy but this Ute defense takes away run game so well and they should eat Speight.
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Yup. Everything i have has utes over matching them but i can only recall speight being meh at michigan. Missed you were on the utes so BOL there
 
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