NCAAF Week 7

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 1: 27-13 (+28.60 units)
Week 2: 37-16 (+25.30 units)
Week 3: 24-14 (+10.70 units)
Week 4: 23-22 (-10.40 units)
Week 5: 21-18 (+6.0 units)
Week 6: 22-7 (+21.84 units)
Overall: 154-90 (+82.04 units)

GOY: (Games played in futures market before this week)

Utah -4 v. Arizona -110 (1 unit)
Oregon +10 v. Washington -120 (1 unit)
UCF -1 @ Memphis -110 (2 units)
 
Texas State +17.5 v Georgia Southern -110 (1 unit)
Virginia +8.5 v Miami -115 (1.5 units)
Duke +3 @ Georgia Tech -107 (1 unit)
Oklahoma State -6.5 @ Kansas State -110 (1 unit)
UCF -2 @ Memphis -110 (1.5 units)
Temple -2 @ Navy -115 (1.5 units)
LSU +8 v UGA -110 (1 unit)
Wisconsin +8 @ Michigan -105 (1 unit)
Vanderbilt +8 v. Florida -110 (1 unit)
Indiana +6 v. Iowa -110 (1 unit)
 
RetroVK said:
It's just impossible to not bet Duke and just take the lumps if it doesn't come in. good luck as always
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Agreed. I have a running database of situations and games I am generally just going to take every year this is one of them. GL this week.
 
Awesome work this season! Really appreciate your willingness to give back to the community. What's your thoughts/units if you'd play on UCF/Memphis at the current -4.5/5 lines out there?
 
The Five Pack said:
Awesome work this season! Really appreciate your willingness to give back to the community. What's your thoughts/units if you'd play on UCF/Memphis at the current -4.5/5 lines out there?
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I would prob be a bit patient and see those are dead numbers and 4 and below start taking on some significance. I made this line embarrassingly higher and I believe barring a major diversion from the way these two have played that UCF wins by double digits.
 
Congrats on the week 6 record. I've always found week 4 to be by far the hardest to cap, so it's interesting to see that week stand out for you too. Is that just this year for you?
 
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M.W. said:
Congrats on the week 6 record. I've always found week 4 to be far the hardest to cap, so it's interesting to see that week stand out for you too. Is that just this year for you?
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Thanks. I don't really pay too much attention to which weeks I've historically done well in. I think it's easy to get in my own head, in a bad way, if I start thinking I am hexed in a certain week. I generally expect to win each week and just hope I get positive variance and rewarded for betting good numbers. Below was last year. I don't keep personal detailed records really but I usually hit around 60%. Last year and this year I feel like my volume is higher than it's ever been.

Week 0: 3-0 (+6.00 units)
Week 1: 28-17 (+14.90 units)
Week 2: 24-13 (+20.15 units)
Week 3: 28-15 (+21.95 units)
Week 4: 20-11 (+14.50 units)
Week 5: 18-12 (+8.72 units)
Week 6: 20-14 (-7.75 units)
Week 7: 24-8 (+26.40 units)
Week 8: 16-17 (+1.50 units)
Week 9: 13-16 (-3.18 units)
Week 10: 16-16 (-0.95 units)
Week 11: 18-13 (+1.02 units)
Week 12: 20-15 (+5.05 units)
Week13: 16-9 (+8.10 units)
Week 14: 4-2 (+3.80 units)
Week 15: 2-0 (+3.00 units)
Bowls: 31-23 (+4.45 units)
Overall: 301-201 (+127.66 units)

This time last year I was +78.47 units and 141-82 (63%)

This year I am +82.04 units and 154-90 (63%), so pretty much the same.
 
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Texas A&M -2 @ South Carolina -110 (1.5 units)

Louisville/BC Over 60.5 -110 (1 unit)
Miami/UVA Under 53.5 -110 (1 unit)
Ball State/CMU Over 49.5 -110 (1.5 units)
ULM/Coastal Carolina Under 71 -110 (1 unit)
Duke/GT Under 59 -110 (2.5 units)
Kent State/Miami Ohio Over 54 -110 (2.5 units)
Colorado/USC Over 54.5 -110 (2 units)
La Tech/ UTSA Under 48.5/51.5 -110 (2 units)
WVU/Iowa State Over 57 -110 (1 unit)
Nebraska/Northwestern Over 56 -110 (2.5 units)
Oklahoma State/Kansas State Under 63.5 -110 (1 unit)
UCLA/Cal Over 52.5 -110 (1 unit)
Hawaii/BYU Over 51/54 -110 (1.5 units)
Purdue/Illinois Over 56 -110 (1 unit)
Southern Miss/North Texas Over 55.5 -110 (1 unit)
UAB/Rice Under 56.5 -110 (1 unit)
 
CK I was curious what you made BST/CMU total? I was looking over that game, and saw that CM had 130th rated offense per S&P and Ball St. not much better at 116. However both their defenses rated much better at CM 49 and BST 91. I figured about 150 plays or so in this one, but can't find the attraction to the over? I think the 49 or so is about right. What am I missing there? Realize though that Ball St. is up tempo at 87.4 plays/gm, but best unit appears to be CM defense.
 
Timh said:
CK I was curious what you made BST/CMU total? I was looking over that game, and saw that CM had 130th rated offense per S&P and Ball St. not much better at 116. However both their defenses rated much better at CM 49 and BST 91. I figured about 150 plays or so in this one, but can't find the attraction to the over? I think the 49 or so is about right. What am I missing there? Realize though that Ball St. is up tempo at 87.4 plays/gm, but best unit appears to be CM defense.
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Starts with pace for me here. Insane amount of potential tempo for a total in the 40s. It's not quite UCF/Memphis but it is comparable to ECU/Houston, those games are totaled at 78 and 69.5. Now, I'm not advocating that the number should be that high, but I can't get behind a number with a 4 in front of it. As far as defenses go, the CMU secondary is highly rated but I would imagine they have played prob the top 10% of weakest pass offenses to date. Now they will get a team that is gonna operate with pace and throw it all around, I'm just not sure they are as good at the back as their raw numbers indicate, although adjusted numbers are very good as well. Teams also havent really had to pass because they are so generous in what they allow on the ground but I think much of their success is matchup driven. Ball State has faced some pretty tough defenses so far. Only two where I felt they really stood a chance to do a bunch of scoring they put up 42 and 56, respectively. Ball State defense is bad by both the raw and adjusted numbers so I think CMU can have more success here offensively than they've had to date. I don't think they are as bad at running the football as the numbers show and they should have much more favorable sledding here. I think it's a game where both teams should score in the upper 20's to lower 30's. I made the total 57.
 
CK - Thank you for sharing your thoughts, greatly appreciated. The relative SOS here is something I hadn't taken into consideration and obviously a large factor. BST will put more pressure on CM than they have seen all year and fatigue with the excessive plays could come into effect on their pass coverage personnel.
 
thoughts on UCF/Memphis total? looks like an absolute shootout to me. I also hate that I am against you on the side, but the over is what I really am looking to pound
 
D-Woww said:
thoughts on UCF/Memphis total? looks like an absolute shootout to me. I also hate that I am against you on the side, but the over is what I really am looking to pound
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I actually should have several units on the Under, based on my forecast. I think it’s going to be a comparable scoreline to the Tulane/Memphis game. If UCF watches that game and employs similar defensive strategy - make White throw and also ignore him on read plays and just smother Henderson - then I think UCF can win by three scores if they value the football on offense. Pace is going to be insane and UCF defense isn’t as good as their numbers indicate but I think the Memphis offense is a mirage. Brady White looks good on paper but he’s actually quite bad. It would take his best game he’s ever played to win this game, imo. Implied is 41-37. I will certainly be taking mem TT Under as well. I don’t care if I get burned badly here this is an epic mismatch. UCF just owns them too, last loss in 1990.
 
Hawaii/BYU Over 53.5 -108 (1.5 units)

McDonald practiced so I will move forward as if he plays and reduce to reflect it being a coin flip if he sits. One of the more valuable players in CFB when making totals.
 
CrimsonK said:
Texas A&M -2 @ South Carolina -110 (1.5 units)

Louisville/BC Over 60.5 -110 (1 unit)
Miami/UVA Under 53.5 -110 (1 unit)
Ball State/CMU Over 49.5 -110 (1.5 unito
ULM/Coastal Carolina Under 71 -110 (1 unit)
Duke/GT Under 59 -110 (2.5 units)
Kent State/Miami Ohio Over 54 -110 (2.5 units)
Colorado/USC Over 54.5 -110 (2 units)
La Tech/ UTSA Under 48.5/51.5 -110 (2 units)
WVU/Iowa State Over 57 -110 (1 unit)
Nebraska/Northwestern Over 56 -110 (2.5 units)
Oklahoma State/Kansas State Under 63.5 -110 (1 unit)
UCLA/Cal Over 52.5 -110 (1 unit)
Hawaii/BYU Over 51/54 -110 (1.5 units)
Purdue/Illinois Over 56 -110 (1 unit)
Southern Miss/North Texas Over 55.5 -110 (1 unit)
UAB/Rice Under 56.5 -110 (1 unit)
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Jedi master...I don't think one total went against you:keepaway:
 
Frank Costanza said:
Interested in your take on A&M and laying the points. Thanks.
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Here are my abridged thoughts from twitter:

Texas A&M @ South Carolina (+2/52) I took the Ags -2. Better team in every phase of the game. Thankfully, Missouri's recievers melting down followed up by a torential downpur kept Missouri from beating South Carolina last week by several TDs. Game was well on it's way to a route. Dropped TDs and having to settle for FG attempts, made and missed, allowed South carolina to hang in there once the heavebns opened up. And let me say, it wasn't a light rain, it was a deluge and totally altered the game in favor of USCe. Bentley is rumored to be back this game. I don't really care one way or another. I would prefer it be the backup but I've seen enough of Bentley against good defenses to know how things usually end. The saving grace for him/them here is the weakness of the Ags defense is at the back. They allow next to nothing on ground. SC has only faced a dual-threat QB with a very good defense once this season and it ended in a 24-10 Kentucky win. Ags have best punter in nation and in a game like this with a one-dimensional offense, he can make things very hard for USCe offense. I understand that aTm is gonna popular this week and there will be plenty of suckers on that side, but I think this is a big mismatch in favor of the Ags. 31-20.
 
B.A.R. said:
This game in general had/has me confused as far as other things. On this bet, will he get the requisite carries?
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I think so. Just faced off against some pretty tough defenses and I don’t consider Texas Tech to be in that class. He had 16 carries against Iowa State, if he gets that here he will go way over. Had 8 against Texas and nobody runs on Todd Orlando so toss that out. Had 12 against Ohio State including the 93 yarder, which isn’t a fluke, he made Feldman’s athletic freak list he’s a monster and has track speed. He had 8 and 9 to start year. Basically, I think he needs 10 carries to feel good which I’m confident he gets. Starting a first time QB and wanting to play ball control, I imagine we see a very heavy dose of him and Olonilua once they get near goal line. Another angle I liked was both he and his mom have been tweeting this week all riled up for this game and how he’s about to eat. Small thing but throw that in as a bonus with potential game script and class relief and I think he could have 100 yard night.

TT has given up the following in each game v FBS foe:

16-204
6-61 & 15-57
12-111
11-77

Every team has cashed at this number this season.
 
Terrific. And if Patterson plays to the tempo/control I think he would prefer tonight then the numbers will be there. Appreciate the write-up... I couldn't find it on the 'feed'.
 
EazyDuzIt said:
Texas State thoughts?
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Really big number for an option team to lay. Texas St beneficiaries of a QB switch last game after Jones was injured. Vitt was 28/39/296/3/0 passing to go with 17-92 rushing and Ga Southern has one of the worst secondaries in CFB. So for first time in 1.5 seasons Texas State has a bona fide passing attack and gets a favorable matchup as massive dogs. I'm not opposed to a Thursday night home dog if the handicap fits and I think it does. Never know how a team will handle the option so I generally assume it won't be great unless they have elite personnel on the DL and/or a history of stopping it - they have neither. Don't think Tex St QB switch is priced into game. He's young but he's a player, much like a white Eazy E that is from Texas.
 
CrimsonK said:
Really big number for an option team to lay. Texas St beneficiaries of a QB switch last game after Jones was injured. Vitt was 28/39/296/3/0 passing to go with 17-92 rushing and Ga Southern has one of the worst secondaries in CFB. So for first time in 1.5 seasons Texas State has a bona fide passing attack and gets a favorable matchup as massive dogs. I'm not opposed to a Thursday night home dog if the handicap fits and I think it does. Never know how a team will handle the option so I generally assume it won't be great unless they have elite personnel on the DL and/or a history of stopping it - they have neither. Don't think Tex St QB switch is priced into game. He's young but he's a player, much like a white Eazy E that is from Texas.
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Thanks man, got it in just in time! Great analysis. So kinda like a Paul Wall?! Haha
 
Got down on a lot of your totals this week very close to numbers you got. Since they have all moved the right direction :) as always thanks for taking the time to share, much appreciated!!

And nice call w Texas state.

Gl this week!!
 
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