NCAAF Week 6

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-0 (+6 units)
Week 1: 28-17 (+14.90 units)
Week 2: 24-13 (+20.15 units)
Week 3: 28-15 (+21.95 units)
Week 4: 20-11 (+14.50 units)
Week 5: 18-12 (+8.72 units)
Overall: 121-68 (+86.22 units)

GOY:

Duke -1 @ UVA -120 (3 units)
Boise St +6 v. BYU -120 (1 unit)
Michigan State +17.5 @ Michigan (1 unit)
Notre Dame -2 @ UNC -120 (1 unit)
AFA +15.5 v Navy -120 (1 unit)
South Carolina -1.5 v. Arkansas -120 (1 unit)
Kentucky -5.5 v. Missouri -120 (1 unit)

Should have value on all seven of these. Incredible that Boise is as bad as they are and will still be favored at BYU. I've made plenty of bad bets this year but BYU RSW Under 10 is one I can proudly tell my grandkids about someday. This is more than I would have wanted to have on Duke but they will be favored so I should have some options.
 
NC State +3.5 v. Louisville -110 (1 unit)
Toledo -9 v. Eastern Michigan -105 (1 unit)
Miami Ohio -13 v. Bowling Green -110 (1 unit)
Buffalo +10 v. Western Michigan -110 (1 unit)
Akron -6.5 v. Ball State -110 (1.5 units)
Virginia +4.5 v. Duke -110 (1.5 units)
UTSA -4 v. Southern Miss -110 (2 units)
Idaho +3.5 v. ULL -110 (2 units)
Washington State PICK -110 (1 unit)
 
Air Force/Navy Under 62/63 -110 (8 units)
Duke/Virginia Over 51 -110 (2 units)
SDSU/UNLV Under 62.5 -110 (2 units)
Texas Tech/Kansas Over 77 -110 (1.5 units)
Arizona/Colorado Over 55 -110 (1.5 units)
New Mexico State/App State Over 52 -110 (1 unit)
Virginia Tech/Boston College Over 45 -110 (1 unit)
Colorado State/Utah State Over 63 -110 (1 unit)
SMU/Houston Over 61 -110 (1 unit)
Kansas State/Texas Under 53 -110 (1 unit)
Miami/FSU Under 50 -110 (1 unit)
 
booksbestfriend said:
Did you sour on Duke, or are you creating a middle by taking UVA?
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I would use different phrasing. Virginia is actually a pretty good football team. I was very wrong about that. Duke is also a good football and I was right about that. I really just wanted to reduce my position on Duke. If I could have a do-over with the whole thing I would just take Duke for prob 1 unit if it got to +3. So, I did sour on the bet as a whole but it was more of a ripening on UVA than a souring on Duke.
 
I was playing cards this afternoon and missed total openers. Great grab on Navy total, see they have absolutely decimated that number. BOL and kudos on a fine season.
 
Timh said:
I was playing cards this afternoon and missed total openers. Great grab on Navy total, see they have absolutely decimated that number. BOL and kudos on a fine season.
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Sorry you missed open, hope you won some scratch at the table! I kinda lost my mind on that one. I made it 44 and I can't think of another instance of there being that type of discrepancy in my number versus opener, especially when I feel VERY strongly that the error is theirs, not mine. They always mess the commander in chief games' totals up and make them way too high but this was insane. There MAY be 16 possessions in the game and I can afford to have TDs scored on 50% of them. I'm kinda in uncharted territory as far as units invested in a single game but I'm not mad about it. If I win great, if I lose I'll still sleep fine. It would still be a multi unit play for me at current and that's now two scores below where I got it. Crazy.
 
Frank Costanza said:
K State / Texas under....There may not be 35 points scored in this game. This is a very good matchup for the Texas defense and anyone who has seen our offense knows it's in disarray.

This feels a lot like that K-State / Vandy game.
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Pretty well summarizes my thoughts as well. I won on the Iowa State/Texas under last week as well. I figured the Maryland game was the outlier, not the USC game and last week at least, that proved me right. Didnt help that Iowa State put to together the single worst offensive game plan I've seen from any team this year. Any game plan of theirs that doesn't account for David Montgomery getting 25 touches is foolish, IMO. This I still a Todd Orlando defense which means it's gonna be tough to run against. Herman seemed content last game with staying very safe and just trusting the defense and the Horns' defense has so much speed throughout and several guys in the back that can cover 1v1 it's gonna be tough sledding for KSU.
 
Just trying to get ahead of some potential injury news:

Notre Dame/UNC Under 64.5 -110 (1 unit)

Brandon Wimbush is in a walking boot for ND. He could be fine and it could just be rumor but I saw on twitter that a few beat writers confirmed it.
 
It's a total that probably drops a little regardless. Doubt that gets pushed up. Good luck as usual, and as usual, doubt you need any.

You make the books look like clowns.
 
Frank Costanza said:
K State / Texas under....There may not be 35 points scored in this game. This is a very good matchup for the Texas defense and anyone who has seen our offense knows it's in disarray.

This feels a lot like that K-State / Vandy game.
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Texas backer here.
I feel like Texas has a huge advantage over Vandy in wide receiver depth talent and with the 6'6 Johnson, match-up. You disagree or don't see that producing many points?
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Texas backer here.
I feel like Texas has a huge advantage over Vandy in wide receiver depth talent and with the 6'6 Johnson, match-up. You disagree or don't see that producing many points?
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Not sure if this was for me or Frank but I'll chime in. Yes, I agree the Texas WRs are considerably better than Vanderbilt's (though I actually think the Vandy WR's are low-key good). That is less a slight to Vandy and more a hat tip to Texas' WRs, and Johnson in particular are a good group. I'm a big fan of Johnson, I've already drafted him in an NFL Fantasy "Developmental" or "Devy" league where you draft college players and they are on your taxi squad until they are on an NFL roster and then can contribute for you. Johnson has been very inconsistent and has dropped too many balls this season but when the good iteration of him shows up he is nearly impossible to guard.
 
The Texas WRs are the best we've had since Roy Willams and crew. Just stacked with talent. As you mention, Johnson, but there's also Foreman (D'onta's twin), Hemphill, Humphrey, Dorian Leonard. They're a little inconsistent with route running and hands but we just struggle to get them the ball. Inconsistent QB play, QBs under duress and Tim Beck's play calling.
 
Oklahoma -27.5 v. Iowa State -115 (2 units)
Iowa State/Oklahoma Under 69 -110 (2 units)

Will make more sense in next few hours...
 
GOY:

Week 11:

Michigan State +25.5 @ Ohio State -110 (2 units)

Week 13:

West Virginia +18.5 @ Oklahoma -110 (2 units)
 
I generally am glad when the line moved against me. It often means money is on the other side so i am on the side of the books.
 
AtlHawks said:
That total is dropping like rain...whats up?
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Have it from really solid source that Iowa State QB, Jacob Park, has been suspended for this game for violation of team rules. Have seen conflicting reports on twitter today. One beat writer said he even text Matt Campbell and asked him and he said he wasn't suspended. We shall see. Market seems to think there is enough smoke..
 
GOY:

Week 10:

NC State +11.5 v. Clemson -110 (1 unit)

Already on +9.5, just adding to this at better number.
 
CrimsonK said:
Haven't been back in number of years. In 30s with family now and all my friends are gone so it just makes the trip tougher - both a day trip or weekend. I'm not a partyer anymore and each fall I find how I value watching football in my own house more and more.
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I'd love to have seen CK then

To now


And you draft developmental kids from college for some fantasy league lol

Money never sleeps big dog.....you are the man

CK, for some weird reason......I think LSU wins

Which may not be best for the program lol
 
twinkie13 said:
I'd love to have seen CK then

To now


And you draft developmental kids from college for some fantasy league lol

Money never sleeps big dog.....you are the man

CK, for some weird reason......I think LSU wins

Which may not be best for the program lol
Click to expand...

Be glad you interact with me now and not then!

That game feels so weird. Most people either don't realize or forgot how much this game means to both programs after last year's debacle. I think we see a really good LSU effort but I'm not entirely sure what that team looks like. Ive got a strong sense that I need to stay away. BTW, O is +1000 to be next coach fired. Butchie -500.
 
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