NCAAF Week 5 Plays & Leans


Montezuma Mesa Survivor
YTD NCAAF Sides: 25-15-3 [+10.4 Units]

YTD NCAAF M/L Plays: 0-1 [-0.5 Units]

YTD NCAAF Totals: 0-0 [N/A]

YTD NCAAF Overall: +9.9 Units

Week 5 Card

Nevada +7 [2 Units] --> see my "Games of the Year" thread (posted before the start of this season)

Florida -13 [3 Units] --> I watched both teams play last week. Leak and the Gators should score in the low 30s, while Bama probably won't break double digits on the scoreboard.

Cal -9.5 [2 Units] --> See the Cal @ Oregon St. thread by SoonerBS for my thoughts on this one (in depth analysis).

Navy +3 [2 Units] --> UConn won't be able to slow down one of the best rushing offenses in the country (Huskies haven't really been tested yet). I think the Midshipmen will win this SU.

Miami -15.5 [2 Units] --> The only reason this line is this low are the two losses (FSU & Louisville). Compare schedules, then try not to laugh.

Nebraska -20.5 [1.5 Units] --> horses convinced me.

So. Mississippi -4 [0.5 Units] --> The Golden Eagles just ran all over NC State. UCF hasn't done much to impress me this season, and looks rather one dimensional (if not bad all around) on offense. How can I resist this one on prime time Tuesday Night?

Remaining Leans

Minnesota +10 --> in the last 3 years, every Michigan/Minnesota game has been determined by 3 points. Minnesota has a strong running game, and is getting 10 points at home, in what would be a huge win for them at this point in the season (starting off 2-2). I realize that Michigan is in a good revenge spot...but they have a recent history of playing the Wolverines tough. Of course, Minnesota's very suspect defense is what's keeping me from pulling the trigger for now.

Wisconsin -11 --> with all the problems Indiana has had lately, can they keep it close this weekend? I agree with rj's assessment on this one. Wisky O-Line should wear down the Hoosier Defensive front, and I see the Wisky running game stretching the lead to 17+ in the 2nd Half.

USC -17 --> Trojans are favored by less points to a team with a defense much worse than Arizona's??? Cougar offense is always pretty solid. But can they keep up with USC?...

Thanks ahead of time for all the feedback. GL this week fellas! :cheers:
lol pags. Thanks bud. :shake:

Moot - I don't know San Diego State as well as horses does. He lives in San Diego, I live just south of L.A. The Aztec front lines should be able to take care of business. But. . the Spartans offense looks rather decent this year. Unless horses can convince me otherwise, I'm staying away. :shake:

Inspekdah - I agree 100%. :shake:
I just wanted to say that I like the Wisconsin lean a lot, and I'd say to go ahead and get it. I caught it at 10 but I'm guessing it won't come back down. Indiana is very, very bad. Wisconsin is average. Good enough to cover the 10, I say...

I know that was a weak writeup with very little paid attention to matchups, but some games, there really is no need to overthink things...
Thanks for the input Seabass. I am very strong on that Wisky lean. Two tall beers away (this afternoon) from pulling the trigger. :smiley_acbe:

Thanks Big Al. Best of luck this week. :cheers:
Play added...

Rutgers -3 [1 Unit] (bought half a point)

Nice little 1-0 start to this week. :smiley_acbe:

I'm looking more into Thursday's games. Any thoughts on BYU/TCU or Auburn/SC?
Two more added last night...

USC -17 [1 Unit]

Ohio -4.5 [1 Unit]

Still pondering Wisky. If I don't pull the trigger on 'em, this should be my final card.

GL this week fellas! :shake:
with you on Nevada +7 lol!:cheers:

agreed SDSU-SJS looks like a friggin no play if I ever saw one, good luck on the plays homie.
GL this week Aztec, good looking card. I'm on Navy +3 and ML this week, plus Auburn so far. Florida and Miami are on my list and I liked your thoughts on Cal in the other thread. Wisconsin also has my interest as well.
Nick - Thanks. Feeling pretty good with Nevada +7. I just can't see Nevada getting waxed by UNLV this year (especially with Rowe being a senior and Ault REALLY wanting this win). BOL this week bro. :cheers:

Timh - I'm glad you like the card man. As always, GL this week. :shake:
Adding play...

Auburn -7 (1st Half) [0.5 Units] --> What can I say? I couldn't resist. I'm a degenerate. :smiley_acbe:
damn, aztec

great lines, bro. love almost all of your card. but i'm only with you on Navy, cuz i missed all that value. good job, buddy.:drink:
Thanks Yanks! BOL this weekend buddy! :cheers:

Week 5 - Final Card

Nevada +7 [2 Units]

Florida -13 [3 Units]

Cal -9.5 [2 Units]

Navy +3 [2 Units]

Miami -15.5 [2 Units]

Nebraska -20.5 [1.5 Units]

Wisconsin -11 [1 Unit]

Texas Tech +3 [1 Unit] --> bought half a point (A&M's first real opponent this year)

So. Mississippi -4 [0.5 Units] :D

Auburn -7 (1st Half) [0.5 Units] :mad:

I can't wait to get off work so I can watch the game tonight! :smiley_acbe:
Good luck my friend; I don't see our Aztecs on the ticket!? :hairout:

Appreciate the confidence in the 'Husker pick; hope it cashes for us.
horses - Thanks bro. As much as I hate to admit it, the SJS offense doesn't look too shabby this year. They went into Washington and gave the Huskies a run for their money, and QB Trafalis looks pretty good. Are you playing the Aztecs tomorrow?...
Oh man...I really hope not! I just can't get over how much they own this team and how much bigger and more athletic the Aztecs are supposed to be. That being stated...I agree with you...SJSU has a legit offense...and the Aztecs don't. Everyone is talking about the Aztecs OL, but where I see them really hurting is at WR.

I am on Nevada, Cal and Miami with ya bro, on the other hand, leaning to Alabama + points.

horses - I sure hope the Aztec O-Line dominates this weekend because...

Adding play...

SDSU -2.5 [1 Unit]

I need like some sort of placebo for 'pulling the trigger'.

Troy - Looks like we're both on my Aztecs now. GL bud. :shake:

CATSFAN - Well, if you take Bama now, maybe we'll both get lucky and Florida will win by 14?... :cheers:
aztec & horses...

what do you think of this over? SJST does have a decent offense, and imo can put up between 21-24 pts. don't know enough about SDST though...
Week 5 - Results
Nevada +7 [2 Units] :D

Florida -13 [3 Units] :D

Cal -9.5 [2 Units] :D

Navy +3 [2 Units] :D

Miami -15.5 [2 Units] :mad:

Nebraska -20.5 [1.5 Units] :mad:

Wisconsin -11 [1 Unit] :D

Texas Tech +3 [1 Unit] :D

Rutgers -3 [1 Unit] :mad:

SDSU -2.5 [1 Unit] :mad:

USC -17 [1 Unit] :mad:

Ohio -4.5 [1 Unit] :mad:

So. Mississippi -4 [0.5 Units] :D

Auburn -7 (1st Half) [0.5 Units] :mad:

Week 5 Sides Record: 7-7 [+2.9 Units]

Another winning week, so no complaints from me. I'm going to try and cut down on the number of games I play in the coming weeks.

YTD NCAAF Sides: 32-22-3 [+13.3 Units]

YTD NCAAF M/L Plays: 0-1 [-0.5 Units]

YTD NCAAF Totals: 0-0 [N/A]

YTD NCAAF Overall: +12.8 Units

I hope you guys had a profitable Week 5 as well. :cheers: