NCAAF Week 4

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 1: 27-13 (+28.60 units)
Week 2: 37-16 (+25.30 units)
Week 3: 24-14 (+10.70 units)
Overall: 88-43 (+64.60 units)

GOY:

Iowa +10.5 v Wisconsin -120 (1 unit)
 
Vanderbilt +3.5 v South Carolina -110 (2 units)
Buffalo -2.5 @ Rutgers -115 (2 units)
Virginia -3 v Louisville -105 (1.5 units)
ULL Pick v Coastal Carolina -110 (1.5 units)
ULM +8.5 v Troy -110 (1 unit)
Georgia State +8 v Western Michigan -110 (1 unit)
Tennessee +8 v Florida -110 (1 unit)
 
cubsker said:
How badly did vandy outplay the Irish. Probably should have won by dds
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Will chime in. Watched most of the ND game and Vandy is a damn good team. Outgained ND 420 - 380 and Herbstreit was spot on when he predicted they would win this game outright. With better ball security (lost TOs 3-0) they would have. Shurmur is really impressive - accurate and makes great decisions. Vandy put a hellacious effort in South Bend so wonder a bit how they bounce back. So Car off a bye with the Florence cancellation.

But Vandy getting points, at home? Hell yes.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Will chime in. Watched most of the ND game and Vandy is a damn good team. Outgained ND 420 - 380 and Herbstreit was spot on when he predicted they would win this game outright. With better ball security (lost TOs 3-0) they would have. Shurmur is really impressive - accurate and makes great decisions. Vandy put a hellacious effort in South Bend so wonder a bit how they bounce back. So Car off a bye with the Florence cancellation.

But Vandy getting points, at home? Hell yes.
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you're right about shurmur - guy was money all day long. too bad his receiver couldn't come down with that last one.
 
in&out said:
Is Western Michigan really that bad?
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Not really. I look to the Cuse game as a template for what gave WMU problems, a team that moved with some pace and a mobile QB. Both of which I think Ga St can do to exploit. Throw in game is in south where it's still a bit muggy and that is to advantage of home team. Maybe WMU just lines up and beats them at the LOS like Memphis but I'm good taking the big number at home. Def not a bet that I think about and get excited for each morning this week.
 
FAU/UCF Over 67/69 -115 (2units)
Akron/ISU Over 47.5 -110 (1 unit)
NC State/Marshall Over 52 -115 (2 units)
BC/Purdue Over 60.5 -110 (2 units)
UConn/Cuse Over 72 -110 (1 unit)
Pitt/UNC Over 47.5 -110 (1 unit)
Tulane/Ohio State Under 66.5 -110 (1 unit)
Clemson/GT Under 54.5 -110 (2.5 units)
ECU/USF Over 61/62 -112 avg (4 units)
Notre Dame/Wake Forest Over 53.5 -110 (2 units)
WMU/Georgia State Over 60.5 -110 (1 unit)
Miss St/Kentucky Over 54 -105 (1 unit)
Kent State/Ole Miss Over 71.5 -110 (2 units)
Texas Tech/Oklahoma State Over 75 -125 (2 units)
South Carolina/Vanderbilt Over 51 -110 (1.5 units)
AFA/Utah State Over 61.5 -110 (1 unit)
Texas St/UTSA Under 54.5 -110 (1 unit)
North Texas/Liberty Over 63.5 -110 (1 unit)
UGA/Missouri Under 64 -110 (2 units)
Arizona State/Washington Under 50 -110 (1 unit)
 
What’s your rationale for UGA/Mizzou under? Just an inflated number / Kirby will sit on it with a lead?

Appreciate your insight!
 
raems said:
What’s your rationale for UGA/Mizzou under? Just an inflated number / Kirby will sit on it with a lead?

Appreciate your insight!
Click to expand...

Really simply, because I'm short on time, Missouri usually piles on against bad defenses and doesnt do as well against good defenses. It was really high scoring last year 53-28 UGA but if you go back and look at that game, Missouri was really lucky. They hit a few big pass plays but they were totally shut down on the ground. UGA also had a ton of big plays but their offense was more sustained. This is a high variance game, it could be 80 or it could be 50. The implied numbers are something like 40-25. I don't think Missouri gets 25 here. UGA getting 40 is within reason. It appeared Missouri defense had taken a step forward but after the way Purdue carved them, I feel less optimistic. In retrospect, I am fine with the under, but prob would have gone 1u instead of 2u, due to the variance. Just hoping to take advantage of a total that I think is a bit inflated due to some OOC stuff.
 
Maine/CMU Over 52 -120 (1 unit)

After some thought, I’m going to keep the crossover stuff to just 1 unit from here on out. It may not be an accurate representation of my confidence or actually risk, but it just seems like best practice. FWIW, I like the Houston Over considerably more than CMU but both have value. I think Houston should handle the total by themselves
 
CrimsonK said:
Akron/Iowa State Over 44.5 -110 (1 unit)

Now 2u total on 44.5/47.5
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2nd lowest total on the board right now after Iowa/Wisky. Don't get it, Akron's defense nothing that special and 55 points and 834 yards in last year's game...may join you.

I think Cato can make a few plays and get Akron to 10-17 points
 
Marsski said:
2nd lowest total on the board right now after Iowa/Wisky. Don't get it, Akron's defense nothing that special and 55 points and 834 yards in last year's game...may join you.

I think Cato can make a few plays and get Akron to 10-17 points
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Well said, agree with your thoughts. I tried to bet this over 50 at open but as I was submitting, it dropped, then I tried betting over at a lower number, same thing, so I stopped and waited. Was shocked to get the 47.5, then I see 5dimes dangle a rogue 44.5 yesterday and couldnt pass. I made the total 55.
 
jmm102 said:
Any consideration for adding to the Tulane/OSU under at the higher #?
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No. Just more challenging for me to feel comfortable with kind of handicap that really comes down to:

1. How many deep bombs does Tulane connect on?

2. How many does Ohio State want to score? Does the sleepy spot get negated by CUM returning to the sidelines or is it a flat spot that results in a truncated game with both teams wanting to get for what they came for and move to next week?

In retrospect, I don’t know if I would be as inclined to bet the number again. Upon further review, just more variance of outcome than I usually like.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Will chime in. Watched most of the ND game and Vandy is a damn good team. Outgained ND 420 - 380 and Herbstreit was spot on when he predicted they would win this game outright. With better ball security (lost TOs 3-0) they would have. Shurmur is really impressive - accurate and makes great decisions. Vandy put a hellacious effort in South Bend so wonder a bit how they bounce back. So Car off a bye with the Florence cancellation.

But Vandy getting points, at home? Hell yes.
Click to expand...

funny cuz Shurmur was so bad last year

@CK where's the horns play? Thoughts appreciated if you can
 
i went to the Bama and UGA games and he was terrible (i realize competition is a big deal but he was rattled from the start)
 
Ck,

Inam on vt too but want to get your take on vt defense. After week one. I thought they might be nasty but then two weeks of more FSU football, and I am less sure of that. Where do you think their defense fits?
 
Psyched to see you on VT. Played it early. I think they are strong. If they are focused they win by 56. Seems like they should show little mercy with in state grommet. Appreciate you. GL this week.
 
RetroVK said:
Ck,

Inam on vt too but want to get your take on vt defense. After week one. I thought they might be nasty but then two weeks of more FSU football, and I am less sure of that. Where do you think their defense fits?
Click to expand...

They certainly passed the eye test week one. Good and bad news, even if I/we are wrong and they aren't an excellent group, I am confident that ODU offense will offer very little to help confirm or deny that hypothesis. I've followed their recruting some so I am familiar with some of the names we now see inserted on their defense and I think highly of many, so it isn't a huge stretch for me to believe that Bud is gonna get the best out of a really athletic group. I am feeling much more confident that they are really good.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Psyched to see you on VT. Played it early. I think they are strong. If they are focused they win by 56. Seems like they should show little mercy with in state grommet. Appreciate you. GL this week.
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Felt icky laying 4 TD on road, that type of bet has prob comprised less than 1% of my total bets over past decade but I haven't been able to invent the doomsday scenrio where they don't blast them. Good luck to us!
 
GWarner27 said:
funny cuz Shurmur was so bad last year

@CK where's the horns play? Thoughts appreciated if you can
Click to expand...

There is the potential for quite a bit of pace to total a game in the mid 40s. I just think there should only be a handful of games each week with that kind of number and this wouldn't be one. UT is a bit more workman-like as I think they are just lacking consistent explosiveness and Ehlinger seems a bit limited to me. The series has been realluy lopsided recently and honestly not all that close, as you know. I think one reason why Herman is so good as a dog is because he seems to find ways to come up with good gameplans and prob more importantly, inspire his team to rise to occasion. Positives from last week, the Horns OL came alive and really did an excellent job for much of what I saw. They are going to be key again. I think both teams are going to struggle to run it with their backs so the QBs are going to need to make good reads and do damage with their legs. I think the speed of the TCU offense could give UT some problems. Whenever UT plays a traditional offense, non dual-threat QB, they are an easy handicap like last week, when they held USC to -5 rushing yards. You just can't run on them if you have pocket passer. Robinson is not that. I think his speed will cause some issues and while I believe both teams may not be great at long 70 yard drives, the aggressive nature of both defenses may lend itself to some big plays, or at least I hope so. I think the spread is prob about right, perhaps a tick high. I think we see a 27-24 type game with TCU the likely winner but I'm surely not betting against Hermano as a dog.
 
The problem with bettig VT is they are not going to intentionally run up the score. If they dont blast out to a 24 point halftime lead, I dont think they cover.

VT is awfully young on defense, I dont expect the defensive dominance that happened last year. Talented? Absolutely, but they lost a ton on defense.

VT had an extra week off so im not sure what that will affect. I will admit my thougt process is more about what I expected from VT and less about what I saw vs FSU.

I think VT gives up too many big plays and its hard for me to back them to cover 4 TDs on the road with that. Once W&M wore down, they couldnt stop the run vs VT, which is why the score was out of hand. ODUs defense is terrible all around but I think there is enough concern with the DL that VT isnt going to air the ball out for big plays a ton.

ODU is more talented than the results of the first 3 weeks. This is the biggest game they have ever played. I just cant lay 28.
 
CrimsonK said:
There is the potential for quite a bit of pace to total a game in the mid 40s. I just think there should only be a handful of games each week with that kind of number and this wouldn't be one. UT is a bit more workman-like as I think they are just lacking consistent explosiveness and Ehlinger seems a bit limited to me. The series has been realluy lopsided recently and honestly not all that close, as you know. I think one reason why Herman is so good as a dog is because he seems to find ways to come up with good gameplans and prob more importantly, inspire his team to rise to occasion. Positives from last week, the Horns OL came alive and really did an excellent job for much of what I saw. They are going to be key again. I think both teams are going to struggle to run it with their backs so the QBs are going to need to make good reads and do damage with their legs. I think the speed of the TCU offense could give UT some problems. Whenever UT plays a traditional offense, non dual-threat QB, they are an easy handicap like last week, when they held USC to -5 rushing yards. You just can't run on them if you have pocket passer. Robinson is not that. I think his speed will cause some issues and while I believe both teams may not be great at long 70 yard drives, the aggressive nature of both defenses may lend itself to some big plays, or at least I hope so. I think the spread is prob about right, perhaps a tick high. I think we see a 27-24 type game with TCU the likely winner but I'm surely not betting against Hermano as a dog.
Click to expand...

i prefer Titty Tom, but thanks for this :shake:
 
Dollaz said:
The problem with bettig VT is they are not going to intentionally run up the score. If they dont blast out to a 24 point halftime lead, I dont think they cover.

VT is awfully young on defense, I dont expect the defensive dominance that happened last year. Talented? Absolutely, but they lost a ton on defense.

VT had an extra week off so im not sure what that will affect. I will admit my thougt process is more about what I expected from VT and less about what I saw vs FSU.

I think VT gives up too many big plays and its hard for me to back them to cover 4 TDs on the road with that. Once W&M wore down, they couldnt stop the run vs VT, which is why the score was out of hand. ODUs defense is terrible all around but I think there is enough concern with the DL that VT isnt going to air the ball out for big plays a ton.

ODU is more talented than the results of the first 3 weeks. This is the biggest game they have ever played. I just cant lay 28.
Click to expand...
I understand your POV and you make some good points. While VT may not be a great defense, stopping ODU just should be straightforward. I know you follow ODU very closely and I value your insight.
 
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