NCAAF Week 3

[CrimsonK]

CK - If you have a moment to comment would be interested in your thoughts on KST/MSU. See that you are on under there and I noticed that Stevens has been upgraded to probable but that MSU has several injury/suspension issues on OL with Williams?, Wilkerson?, Parker (D). MSU defense maybe has not been quite as good so far as expected, giving up 430 yds/5.5 play to LAL in opener and then 6.5/play to So. Miss. KST looked great against BG pounding them into submission but BG obviously outclassed there. I've seen quite a few I respect on KST side and curious to your thoughts there?

Kansas State @ Miss St (-7/52) Important to look at last year's game. 31-10 Miss St, after a domination in the trenches. Miss St defense has taken a considerable step backwards this year, but the offense is more formidable, as both Stevens and Shrader throw much better than Fitz. Stevens was KO last week and the frosh, Sharader, filled n admirably. He's the best passer on the roster, but not the runner that Stevens is. Also, doesn't have near as many relevant collegiate snaps, nor time in this system. Stevens is ? this week. Game plan prob changes some depending on who is QB1. K State has been great. They've befuddled two scrubs, which is what you wanna see. They are looking like an old school Bill Snyder team. Problem is, the trench advantage they've enjoyed just dried up fast. The comfy home crowd, replaced by cowbells. The hole that is most exploitable right now in Miss St defense exists in the middle of the field, via pass. S miss had tons of big plays available, but they just aren't very good nor consistent in passing game. I think K State staff will see what I did, just dont know I trust them to execute and exploit that. I've played the over on both Miss St games this season, but went under 52.5 here. This looks like an old school big 10 matchup where pace should be slow and field position paramount in importance. Not as dominant as LY, but still 27-20 Cowbell.

 

[CrimsonK]

Is it weather your concerned about for the UCF game? I'm not seeing injuries for either game. Can u tell me what site you get injury updates from please

I use a bunch of sites but twitter the most.

Michael Penix, Indiana's QB is a game-time decision. While there backup isn't bad, I don't trust him to do enough against OSU.

Yes, the tropical stuff off the coast is bringing rain, wind, t-storms to Orlando. Bad weather negates the majority of the edges that UCF has in the game.

 

[Timh]

Thanks CK, greatly appreciate your take on KST/MST.

 

[KD2180]

I took EMU +10.5, but number is a FG lower now. I still think it's slightly high if you are pushing edges, the half point on top of the seven makes sense to grab it.

Just to be clear you're talking about betting EMU +7.5 when saying "the half point on top of the seven makes sense to grab it," right?

Thanks for all of your hard work and great info!

 

[CrimsonK]

Just to be clear you're talking about betting EMU +7.5 when saying "the half point on top of the seven makes sense to grab it," right?

Thanks for all of your hard work and great info!

Yes

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

CK if you have time id like to see you’re thoughts of UVA at the current line. Obviously you have great value at PK. I still see uva winning by pretty good margin. FSU is undisciplined and will struggle on their first rd trip

 

[CrimsonK]

CK if you have time id like to see you’re thoughts of UVA at the current line. Obviously you have great value at PK. I still see uva winning by pretty good margin. FSU is undisciplined and will struggle on their first rd trip

I think it's worth being patient and seeing if a flat or cheaper 7 comes though. Little difference in 7.5 and 9.5 but a lot in 7 and 7.5.

 

[CrimsonK]

I've already posted most of these but I added a few new ones this week. Here is the up-to-date futures card:

Week 4:

Tulane +1.5/2.5 v. Houston -110 (2 units)
Michigan State -3 @ Northwestern (1 unit)
Texas -4 v. Oklahoma State -110 (1 unit)

Week 5

Cal -2.5 v. Arizona State -110 (1.5 units)
Virginia +16.5 @ Notre Dame -120 (1 unit)
Texas Tech +21 @ Oklahoma -110 (2 units)
Washington -5.5 v. USC -110 (1 unit)
USC +11.5 @ Washington -110 (2 units)

Week 6

Cincinnati +6 v. UCF -120 (1 unit)
VT +11 @ Miami -110 (1 unit)
Auburn +8 @ Florida -120 (1 unit)
ECU +8.5 v. Temple -110 (1 unit)

Week 7

NC State -4 v. Syracuse +100 (1 unit)
Syracuse +11.5 @ NC State -110 (1 unit)
Cincinnati +11.5 @ Houston -120 (1 unit)
Virginia +11.5/14 @ Miami -120 (2 units)
FSU +28/33.5 @ Clemson -115 (avg) (2 units)
Texas +14.5 v. Oklahoma -110 (5 units)
Vanderbilt -15 v. UNLV -115 (1 unit)
Iowa State -2.5 @ WVU -110. (1 unit)
USC +14 @ Notre Dame -110 (1.5 units)
LSU -6 v. Florida -115 (1 unit)

Week 8

UCLA +13.5 @ Stanford -110 (1 unit)
Syracuse Pick/+1/+2 v. Pitt -115 avg (3 units)
Boise State -2 @ BYU -110 (1 unit)

Week 9

FSU -1 v. Syracuse -115 (1 unit)
USC -1.5 @ Colorado -110 (1 unit)

Week 10

Baylor +6 v. WVU -110 (1 unit)
Washington -3.5 v. Utah -120 (1 unit)
Utah +4.5 @ Washington -110 (1 unit)
Houston +14 @ UCF -110 (1 unit)
Army PK @ Air Force -120 (1 unit)
VT +15 @ Notre Dame -120 (1 unit)
Purdue +2 v. Nebraska -110 (1 unit)

Week 11

Michigan State +14.5 @ Michigan -110 (2.5 units)
Missouri +21.5 @ UGA -110 (1 unit)
UCF -7.5 @ Tulsa -115 avg (2 units)
Texas Tech +1 @ WVU -110 (1.5 units)
Temple +3.5 @ USF -121 (1.5 units)

Week 12

Cincinnati +1/7.5 @ USF -128 (avg) (2 units)
Baylor +13.5 v. Oklahoma -110 (1 unit)
Navy +24 @ Notre Dame -120 (1 unit)
Missouri +9.5 v. Florida -110 (1 unit)
Wisconsin +3 @ Nebraska -110 (1.5 units)

Week 13

Cincinnati -3 v Temple -120 (1 unit)
TCU +21 @ Oklahoma -110 (2.5 units)
Texas A&M +15.5 @ Georgia -110 (1 unit)
Missouri -1.5 v. Tennessee -110 (1 unit)
Virginia Tech -6 v. Pitt -120 (1.5 units)
Memphis -3 @ USF -121 (1.5 units)

Week 14

Cincinnati +9.5/11.5 @ Memphis -115 avg (4 units)
Washington -6.5 v. Washington State -120 (1 unit)
Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Oklahoma -120 (1 unit)
FSU +14 @ Florida -120 (1 unit)
Ole Miss +18.5 @ Miss St -120 (1 unit)
Texas -3 v. Texas Tech -110 (2 units)

Week 16

Navy +13 v. Army -120 (1 unit)

 

[KD2180]

K State/Miss St Under 52.5 -110 (1 unit)
Colorado State/Arkansas Over 57.5 -110 (1 .5 units)
NC State -6.5 @ WVU -110 (1 unit)
Minnesota TT Under 31.5 -115 (1.5 units)
Arizona State/Michigan State Under 47.5 -110 (1 unit)
Ohio/Marshall Under 55 -110 (1 unit)
Florida/Kentucky Under 51 -110 (1 unit)
Kentucky Team Total Under 20.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Clemson/Syracuse Over 57 -110 (1 unit)
Hawaii/Washington Under 61.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Texas/Rice Under 57.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Tex Tech/Arizona Over 71.5 -110 (2 units)
Texas Tech Team Total Over 37.5 -118 (1.5 units)

Man I need to stop pussyfooting around and get on BOL or at least a better sports book than the one I'm using now. The lines come out so much later than the ones you're capitalizing on haha. Would you still recommend playing any of the following plays?

Colorado State +13.5 @ Arkansas -110 (1.5 units) - Current CSU +10
Charlotte -17 v UMass -110 (1 unit) - Current Charlotte -20.5
Georgia State +13.5 @ WMU -110 (1 unit) - Current Ga St +9
Akron/CMU Under 52 -110 (2.5 units) - Current U45
ECU/Navy Under 58 -110 (2 units) - ECU Current U53.5
Colorado State/Arkansas Over 57.5 -110 (1 .5 units) Current = O64.5
Arizona State/Michigan State Under 47.5 -110 (1 unit) Current =U41.5
Ohio/Marshall Under 55 -110 (1 unit) Current 48.5
Clemson/Syracuse Over 57 -110 (1 unit) Current O65

Thanks for your time and info as always!

 

[CrimsonK]

Man I need to stop pussyfooting around and get on BOL or at least a better sports book than the one I'm using now. The lines come out so much later than the ones you're capitalizing on haha. Would you still recommend playing any of the following plays?

Colorado State +13.5 @ Arkansas -110 (1.5 units) - Current CSU +10
Charlotte -17 v UMass -110 (1 unit) - Current Charlotte -20.5
Georgia State +13.5 @ WMU -110 (1 unit) - Current Ga St +9
Akron/CMU Under 52 -110 (2.5 units) - Current U45
ECU/Navy Under 58 -110 (2 units) - ECU Current U53.5
Colorado State/Arkansas Over 57.5 -110 (1 .5 units) Current = O64.5
Arizona State/Michigan State Under 47.5 -110 (1 unit) Current =U41.5
Ohio/Marshall Under 55 -110 (1 unit) Current 48.5
Clemson/Syracuse Over 57 -110 (1 unit) Current O65

Thanks for your time and info as always!

I don’t disagree that changing books or adding more is a good idea, I would also just couch that by saying that I am at the very far edge of the other side of the pendulum in terms of my style and approach. I’ve found what works well for me, even if you get more outs, no guarantee that the lines you get will be significantly better. The more books the better though, if you like winning though, imo.

I would only take Akron under and for 1u. I would pass on the rest, myself, but again, my process is unique to me and my needs.

 

[B.A.R.]

I don’t disagree that changing books or adding more is a good idea, I would also just couch that by saying that I am at the very far edge of the other side of the pendulum in terms of my style and approach. I’ve found what works well for me, even if you get more outs, no guarantee that the lines you get will be significantly better. The more books the better though, if you like winning though, imo.

I would only take Akron under and for 1u. I would pass on the rest, myself, but again, my process is unique to me and my needs.

Good luck all day CK

 

[CrimsonK]

Laid some off on the big total with rain forecasted for majority of game:

Penn State/Pitt Under 53 -110 (1 unit)

 

[CrimsonK]

One housekeeping note. I've started to just listing all props for 1 unit, regardless of how much I like and am able to get down, etc. Moving forward, I'm going to do the same with FBS/FCS crossovers. I have a couple for today that applies here. Didn't cap most of the card, but took two at a few prices that i thought were bad. I would play them both at current as well for 1u:

Citadel/Georgia Tech Under 64.5 -120 (1 unit)
FIU -6.5 v. New Hampshire -120 (1 unit)

 

[L8kersFan74]

Citadel/Georgia Tech Under 64.5 -120 (1 unit)
FIU -6.5 v. New Hampshire -120 (1 unit)

58.5 & 13.5 at 5dimes

I can't help but laugh at the insane line movement when I try to get some of these plays in.

 

[number2]

58.5 & 13.5 at 5dimes

I can't help but laugh at the insane line movement when I try to get some of these plays in.

Pretty sure a lot of people tail CK and moved the lines.

 

[RoMoPDSho]

Laid some off on the big total with rain forecasted for majority of game:

Penn State/Pitt Under 53 -110 (1 unit)

Crimson, thoughts on this UCF game? Weather seems to be less a factor there as that storm has turned east.

 

[CrimsonK]

Crimson, thoughts on this UCF game? Weather seems to be less a factor there as that storm has turned east.

Def prefer my -6 and over 55.5 than the other side of them that I took due to weather. One thing I don’t love is the uncertainty with UCF at QB. I was told privately that Wimbush was making a move to WR, but time will tell. Mack is back healthy this week and got QB1 reps. I dislike even the potential of a team using three QBs in a game, but that’s where we are. If I had nothing on the game, I would pass at the current numbers. Little too much margin for volatility with the personnel and weather stuff.

 

[CrimsonK]

I’ve got one prop. Even with weather potential not great in 2H. He should see double digit targets:

Pitt/PSU

Maurice Ffrench Over 60.5 rec yards -120 (1 unit)

 

[KD2180]

I don’t disagree that changing books or adding more is a good idea, I would also just couch that by saying that I am at the very far edge of the other side of the pendulum in terms of my style and approach. I’ve found what works well for me, even if you get more outs, no guarantee that the lines you get will be significantly better. The more books the better though, if you like winning though, imo.

I would only take Akron under and for 1u. I would pass on the rest, myself, but again, my process is unique to me and my needs.

Thank you so much for the insight man! Much appreciated and I'll be sure to keep that in mind!

 

[RoMoPDSho]

Def prefer my -6 and over 55.5 than the other side of them that I took due to weather. One thing I don’t love is the uncertainty with UCF at QB. I was told privately that Wimbush was making a move to WR, but time will tell. Mack is back healthy this week and got QB1 reps. I dislike even the potential of a team using three QBs in a game, but that’s where we are. If I had nothing on the game, I would pass at the current numbers. Little too much margin for volatility with the personnel and weather stuff.

Much appreciated. Quick question, any thoughts on Purdue +2? Not sure on their QB situation.

Good luck today!

 

[CrimsonK]

Much appreciated. Quick question, any thoughts on Purdue +2? Not sure on their QB situation.

Good luck today!

Pass for me. In CFB, if there is question about whether someone is playing, I lean towards they won’t. I know the staff likes Plummer at QB, but Patterson is crafty, don’t like a green QB cutting teeth against him. I’m hoping that TCU musical QBs keeps them in it. I think it will soon be very apparent that Duggan is their future. He has potential to be a excellent. Purdue’s NFL MLB OFY as well.

 

[D-Woww]

Pretty sure a lot of people tail CK and moved the lines.

it would be amazing and diabolical if lets say CK liked New Hampshire but wanted a few more points, so he posted FIU -6.5, all of us bet it up to 10 and he gets his number

 

[D-Woww]

obviously not the case...would just be funny

 

[CrimsonK]

ASU/Mich St

Eno Benjamin Under 80.5 rush yards -120 (1 unit)

 

[B.A.R.]

ASU/Mich St

Eno Benjamin Under 80.5 rush yards -120 (1 unit)

That prop is Great. Great.

 

[whatsthespread?]

obviously not the case...would just be funny

What is probably funnier that the books know when he bets so they automatically move the spread before even anyone else even bets it