NCAAF Week 3

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Overall: 63-30 (+44.68 units)

Games played in the futures market:

Wake Forest -2.5 v. UNC -110 (1 unit)
Houston +9/10 v. Washington State -115 avg (2 units)
Washington State -6 v. Houston -110 (1 unit)
Alabama -17.5 @ South Carolina -110 (1 unit)
UCLA +16 v. Oklahoma -110 (1 unit)
Oklahoma -12 @ UCLA -110 (1 unit)
Syracuse +21 v. Clemson -110 (1 unit)
Virginia PICK v. FSU -110 (1 unit)
Pittsburgh +15 @ Penn State -110 (1 unit)
 
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Can you talk about both the Houston and UCLA games? It looks like you are trying to either create a middle or hedge out. Thanks!
 
Most of these are from the circa open in vegas with few BOL and BM open mixed in.

Washington State -7 v. Houston -110 (1 unit)
Pitt +17.5 @ Penn State -110 (1 unit)
Eastern Michigan +10.5 @ Illinois -110 (1 unit)
Georgia Southern +17 @ Minnesota -110 (2 units)
South Alabama +21 v Memphis -110 (1.5 units)
Colorado State +13.5 @ Arkansas -110 (1.5 units)
Charlotte -17 v UMass -110 (1 unit)
Florida -9.5 @ Kentucky -110 (1 unit)
Georgia State +13.5 @ WMU -110 (1 unit)
Purdue -1.5 v. TCU -110 (1.5 units)
Northern Illinois +15 @ Nebraska -110 (1 unit)
Texas Tech -2/3 @ Arizona -110 (3 units)
 
askias said:
Can you talk about both the Houston and UCLA games? It looks like you are trying to either create a middle or hedge out. Thanks!
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I want out of the original bet, and have a way to do so at minimal cost, relative to a decent middle opp. With a blank slate, I would prob advocate a small play on Wash St at less than 7.

On the other GOYs, I’ve added to Pitt position and then I was thankfully able to get off the UCLA side in week one.
 
CrimsonK said:
I want out of the original bet, and have a way to do so at minimal cost, relative to a decent middle opp. With a blank slate, I would prob advocate a small play on Wash St at less than 7.

On the other GOYs, I’ve added to Pitt position and then I was thankfully able to get off the UCLA side in week one.
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Yeah, I mean have you seen the Bruins..lol...awful.

Gl CK.
 
I’ve bet eight other totals at the bottom of the rotation, in addition to this, but for reasons I prefer not to get into, I’m going to wait to post those for about 24 hours.

UNC/Wake Over 62.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Ohio State/Indiana Over 58.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Maryland/Temple Over 59.5 -110 (2 units)
Pitt/Penn State Over 47 -110 (2.5 units)
FAU/Ball State Over 64 -110 (1.5 units)
Akron/CMU Under 52 -110 (2.5 units)
Stanford/UCF Over 55.5 -110 (1 unit)
UCF -6 v. Stanford -110 (1 unit)
ECU/Navy Under 58 -110 (2 units)

Will respond to the questions and comments tomorrow.
 
CrimsonK said:
I’ve bet eight other totals at the bottom of the rotation, in addition to this, but for reasons I prefer not to get into, I’m going to wait to post those for about 24 hours.

UNC/Wake Over 62.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Ohio State/Indiana Over 58.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Maryland/Temple Over 59.5 -110 (2 units)
Pitt/Penn State Over 47 -110 (2.5 units)
FAU/Ball State Over 64 -110 (1.5 units)
Akron/CMU Under 52 -110 (2.5 units)
Stanford/UCF Over 55.5 -110 (1 unit)
UCF -6 v. Stanford -110 (1 unit)
ECU/Navy Under 58 -110 (2 units)

Will respond to the questions and comments tomorrow.
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From a value standpoint, I can't believe I didn't lock in that UCF -1.5 before Labor Day when it was out there. Just curious if you had that one on your radar screen or were you waiting on how Stanford looked before you made it a play?
 
askias said:
I would definitely like to hear about the Texas Tech love when you get a chance CK. Thanks.
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Arizona's secondary is the worst in the P5. It's not likely a talent issue, they are not lining up correctly and not communicating. So far, they've given up 45 points to Hawaii and 41 to a talented FCS team. How many are we to believe they will limit Texas Tech to? Is this the team where they all of a sudden figure it out on defense? If so, tip my cap, recognize the anomalous nature of that being the case, and move on. With the understanding that Texas Tech hasn't been challenged yet, their defense appears to be vastly improved. We know they are better coached now that Kingbury's staff is gone, but they are still crushing it on offense. Tate is a shell of himself under this new staff, and while I expect they will score plenty, I think they may need to score 50 to cover. Going to be a ton of possessions, which means tons of opportunity for Zona to look foolish at the back. Texas Tech May end up being much better than perceived to be right now.
Timh said:
I just noticed this looks like it got pulled down at most places.

View attachment 42807
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Yep, May have gotten caught with my pants down here. Nothing I can do about it though. Just hope he’s good to go. Don’t want a freshman against Patterson. Also hoping TCU plays their veteran, Duggan far more dangerous than Delton.
 
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carolinablue said:
From a value standpoint, I can't believe I didn't lock in that UCF -1.5 before Labor Day when it was out there. Just curious if you had that one on your radar screen or were you waiting on how Stanford looked before you made it a play?
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I actually have a bunch of bets against UCF. I expected they were going to go with Wimbush or Mack, both of whom pass like a tight end, and their front 7 lost so much, I figured it would be a down year. While Gabriel’s numbers last week aren’t good, he’s excellent. He prob won’t be a high percentage passer this year due to the fact the dude prob averaged 20 air yards per throw last week. He just chucks bombs and he’s really good at it. Their front seven has really surprised me and I think DG is gonna be great. I’m starting to lean towards the idea that stanford is trash. They certainly have embodied that through two weeks. If they come out and play totally different here, I will gladly pay the man. I think this game is more likely to look like last weeks Stanford score than seeing them win this game.
 
No opinion, no opinion, would slightly lean that way but you’re also getting a little too close to the fire for me to get involved. I was hoping to bet the over before release, but I think they totaled it appropriately.
 
CrimsonK said:
No opinion, no opinion, would slightly lean that way but you’re also getting a little too close to the fire for me to get involved. I was hoping to bet the over before release, but I think they totaled it appropriately.
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Thanks! Do you make your own lines before they come out and bet accordingly as to how far off the released lines are comparatively?
 
great picks, only one i'm against you is kentucky, what am I not seeing here beside the new qb ? kentucky at home always gives the gators a game and were dominant last year against the gators in all important los battle.

also I lean pitt penn state u and ohio state u, any thoughts on those ? thinking ohio state defense is much improved and they like to run the clock out and pound it now with a lead, and pitt seems like the makeup of an under team
 
I totally agree with your take on the Arizona secondary, after watching them play. They are not being coached correctly and are suffering numerous communication breakdowns. I love this matchup for TT offense with Bowman and agree too that TT is much better defensively this year. Probably will have to play over, or TT team over as well.
 
K State/Miss St Under 52.5 -110 (1 unit)
Colorado State/Arkansas Over 57.5 -110 (1 .5 units)
NC State -6.5 @ WVU -110 (1 unit)
Minnesota TT Under 31.5 -115 (1.5 units)
Arizona State/Michigan State Under 47.5 -110 (1 unit)
Ohio/Marshall Under 55 -110 (1 unit)
Florida/Kentucky Under 51 -110 (1 unit)
Kentucky Team Total Under 20.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Clemson/Syracuse Over 57 -110 (1 unit)
Hawaii/Washington Under 61.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Texas/Rice Under 57.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Tex Tech/Arizona Over 71.5 -110 (2 units)
Texas Tech Team Total Over 37.5 -118 (1.5 units)
 
EL CAPO said:
great picks, only one i'm against you is kentucky, what am I not seeing here beside the new qb ? kentucky at home always gives the gators a game and were dominant last year against the gators in all important los battle.

also I lean pitt penn state u and ohio state u, any thoughts on those ? thinking ohio state defense is much improved and they like to run the clock out and pound it now with a lead, and pitt seems like the makeup of an under team
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Perhaps the QB change is less significant to you than it is to me. I think there is very little chance this guy is up to the test. One of my biggest takeaways through two weeks, average or below average G5 QBs that come up and play with the big boys aren't doing very well. See Neal and Vandy against Georgia, Hicks and Arkansas against air, to name two. We saw what an overmatched QB will do against this Grantham Florida defense in the Miami game. This is not the defense that you want to see in your first step up in class, especially when relying on any help from the ground game won't be there. I just can't see any way this ends well for him.

I took the over on both games where you like under.
 
Remembering UK's win last season in the swamp...they don't do that without the plays Wilson made with his running. He eluded sacks, he made positive plays where there was none with his legs. But he was turnover prone as well - or you could say that the UF D created those turnovers. Even if Smith can avoid those, can he duplicate the what UK will need by improvising like Wilson did last year?
 
Any thoughts on either of these totals:

Cal/NT & Bama/So Car


Leaning both overs. Cals offense should break out a bit and put up 30+....

Bama should move the ball well, and So Cars new QB looks decent enough to score a few times....
 
s--k said:
Remembering UK's win last season in the swamp...they don't do that without the plays Wilson made with his running. He eluded sacks, he made positive plays where there was none with his legs. But he was turnover prone as well - or you could say that the UF D created those turnovers. Even if Smith can avoid those, can he duplicate the what UK will need by improvising like Wilson did last year?
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Good points. He's going to have to be a lot better than I am currently crediting him with being to keep this one tight in the 4th.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Any thoughts on either of these totals:

Cal/NT & Bama/So Car


Leaning both overs. Cals offense should break out a bit and put up 30+....

Bama should move the ball well, and So Cars new QB looks decent enough to score a few times....
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No opinion on either.
 
Curious if you dove into KU/BC. Dillon should run rough shot over this D. Could see him eclipsing 200. Feels like a name your score, where BC could game TT in 1H.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Curious if you dove into KU/BC. Dillon should run rough shot over this D. Could see him eclipsing 200. Feels like a name your score, where BC could game TT in 1H.
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While we await CrimsonK's reply, you may've noticed that BC has some new toys on O this year. Flowers is a great addition with big play receiving capability and occasional running attempts. And Dillion's backup RB, Bailey, he is going to do damage too in relief of AJ or after AJ is done for the day.
 
s--k said:
While we await CrimsonK's reply, you may've noticed that BC has some new toys on O this year. Flowers is a great addition with big play receiving capability and occasional running attempts. And Dillion's backup RB, Bailey, he is going to do damage too in relief of AJ or after AJ is done for the day.
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I haven't seen them, but have noticed in the box scores.
 
s--k said:
Remembering UK's win last season in the swamp...they don't do that without the plays Wilson made with his running. He eluded sacks, he made positive plays where there was none with his legs. But he was turnover prone as well - or you could say that the UF D created those turnovers. Even if Smith can avoid those, can he duplicate the what UK will need by improvising like Wilson did last year?
Click to expand...

Think he had over 100 rushing in that game and Snell had between 150 and 200. No chance that they get that kind of ground production this go around. Also, let's not forget what lockboxes UK were last year, and they have just lost a lot imo. They have put up pts late in games for no reason the first few weeks making their scores a little deceiving too so far.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Curious if you dove into KU/BC. Dillon should run rough shot over this D. Could see him eclipsing 200. Feels like a name your score, where BC could game TT in 1H.
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Kansas @ BC (-21/51) Kansas survives an FCS team and then lays a total egg and gets beat by Coastal Carolina last week. BC handled business against VT and Richmond. Two potential redeeming qualities for Kansas: they have a game-breaking back in Pooka & rush def may be p good. Fortunately for them, BC still has a finnicky QB, and their OL hasn't run blocked well to start the year. They have workhorse back who will crash, grind, and maul, but a RB gottsta have blocking to flourish. I don't have any interest in playing BC as three score favorite, ever. Nor do I see any advantages for KU other than, maybe they break some big plays in run game, and maybe they sell out to stop AJ Dillon, and they force some TOs, and keep this close. Don't see anything worth betting. 35-14 BC.
 
RetroVK said:
Think he had over 100 rushing in that game and Snell had between 150 and 200. No chance that they get that kind of ground production this go around. Also, let's not forget what lockboxes UK were last year, and they have just lost a lot imo. They have put up pts late in games for no reason the first few weeks making their scores a little deceiving too so far.
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I was thankful for the late score last week, will appreciate them not doing so this week!
 
Inspekdah said:
Would you play Wake still after seeing what you have? Their defense looks awful...
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Here are my thoughts on the game:

UNC @ Wake (-3/67.5) Much like we saw with Maryland and USC last week, sorta an unranked favored over ranked-ish scenario. I typically like the home favorite in these spots, and bet Wake -2.5 in the pre-season. I figured I would have massive value w 2-0 v 0-2. Nope. 2-0 v 2-0. Wake defense torched against Utah State. Better against Rice, but that offense is stone age and their pace and style is so drastically diff from UNC that's almost worth just tossing out. Think this test for Wake will be more comparable to Utah State. Not ready to give that respect, but UNC has been good, at least in terms of outcomes. They deserved better against USCe & worse against Miami, probably pretty fortunate to be 2-0, and not 1-1. Per SP+, 31% postgame win expectancy for the Heels -- Miami had higher succ rt, more scoring opps, better FP, and lost. First tr road game for Howell. Wake defense is generally pretty accommodating, as the home crowd should be. Wake right around 50th nationally right now in raw rush defense, UNC 69th. Wake 117th in pass defense at 335 YPG, which is really bad again like last year. UNC 64th 225ypg. UNC passing game hasn't been asked to do too much thus far, but they are pretty well-built to have success there, and Wake is certainly ripe for the taking. Wake's rush attack is serviceable, but their passing game is very strong. Mobile QB w big arm. New test for UNC. Jarren Williams is the baby version and went 30-39-309-2-0 rushing as TrFR in second game, but provides minimal as a runner, relative to Newman. While I think UNC may be better in secondary this year, they just lost one starting corner, and they've benefited from some bleh passing offenses. There should be a ton of snaps in this game, Wake gets a partner like Utah State who will run some tempo with them. We saw an astounding 184 snaps in that game. That's probably a 1% game. I don't expect that type of volume, but certain to see more than we did against snaily Rice. While both teams have shortcomings on the defensive side of the ball, I trust Wake's offense more at this juncture. They will be without Hinton in the slot, but they get back Roberson, and they can lean on Surratt and Washington with Freud in the MOF to pair w slot WR. I took over 62.5 at open and Wake -2.5 this summer. The current numbers would make things pretty tight for me to get involved. If under takes any money, then I'd be more inclined. Same with the side. Things seem pretty sharp on this one, right now. Wake 38-33.
 
Hey buddy, was wondering your thoughts on Illinois -7.5

I have a friend who I bet with, he is square as hell and he knows it, like hell hit me up and be like "ok so I think this is the obvious play on the board, that means its probably the square side right?" And I use his leans to shape my own play sometimes.

He said he thinks Illinois wins by 20+. I honestly don't know jack about either team
 
D-Woww said:
Hey buddy, was wondering your thoughts on Illinois -7.5

I have a friend who I bet with, he is square as hell and he knows it, like hell hit me up and be like "ok so I think this is the obvious play on the board, that means its probably the square side right?" And I use his leans to shape my own play sometimes.

He said he thinks Illinois wins by 20+. I honestly don't know jack about either team
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I took EMU +10.5, but number is a FG lower now. I still think it's slightly high if you are pushing edges, the half point on top of the seven makes sense to grab it.
 
CrimsonK said:
Kansas @ BC (-21/51) Kansas survives an FCS team and then lays a total egg and gets beat by Coastal Carolina last week. BC handled business against VT and Richmond. Two potential redeeming qualities for Kansas: they have a game-breaking back in Pooka & rush def may be p good. Fortunately for them, BC still has a finnicky QB, and their OL hasn't run blocked well to start the year. They have workhorse back who will crash, grind, and maul, but a RB gottsta have blocking to flourish. I don't have any interest in playing BC as three score favorite, ever. Nor do I see any advantages for KU other than, maybe they break some big plays in run game, and maybe they sell out to stop AJ Dillon, and they force some TOs, and keep this close. Don't see anything worth betting. 35-14 BC.
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Thanks CK. You are a gentleman and a scholar.
 
Weather and injuries:

Ohio State/Indiana Under 60 -108 (1.5 units)
Stanford +8.5 @ UCF +100 (1 unit)
Stanford/UCF Under 62 -110 (1 unit)

Having some really bad injury and personnel luck so far this week. Hope to weather.
 
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CK - If you have a moment to comment would be interested in your thoughts on KST/MSU. See that you are on under there and I noticed that Stevens has been upgraded to probable but that MSU has several injury/suspension issues on OL with Williams?, Wilkerson?, Parker (D). MSU defense maybe has not been quite as good so far as expected, giving up 430 yds/5.5 play to LAL in opener and then 6.5/play to So. Miss. KST looked great against BG pounding them into submission but BG obviously outclassed there. I've seen quite a few I respect on KST side and curious to your thoughts there?
 
CrimsonK said:
Weather and injuries:

Ohio State/Indiana Under 60 -108 (1.5 units)
Stanford +8.5 @ UCF +100 (1 unit)
Stanford/UCF Under 62 -110 (1 unit)

Having some really bad injury and personnel luck so far this week. Hope to weather.
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Is it weather your concerned about for the UCF game? I'm not seeing injuries for either game. Can u tell me what site you get injury updates from please :)
 
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