NCAAF Week 3

The Five Pack said:
How high would you go on this before not betting it/corresponding unit reduction? THanks
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It's now up to 45.5 since my post, I would imagine this continues to rise until high 40's. At the current number of 45.5, I prob look at 1.5 u and would drop to 1u once it hits 48. That is the number that I would stop on.
 
CrimsonK said:
It's now up to 45.5 since my post, I would imagine this continues to rise until high 40's. At the current number of 45.5, I prob look at 1.5 u and would drop to 1u once it hits 48. That is the number that I would stop on.
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Appreciate it! Got one in at 44 and another half unit at 45. I see it still shows postponed on BM so will monitor. Thanks!
 
It's definitely tough to tail someone who's getting the best of the number, especially when it's moved 5-7 pts. For ex. Alabama at 63/71 would actually have to be a play on the under if you were to decide to play, imo. I remembering crushing all the numbers especially when BOL opened them, however only small numbers allowed. If they pick up what the English bookmakers are doing, it will be tough to find outs, in my opinion if CK continues to hit the books early. He seems to be right on many of the lines and as I always proclaimed, phuckk the bookies. I can't stand them..I'm curious to see what lines after sharp shops open that CK would suggest playing at 1 unit or .5 unit vs. soft openers. Just curious, good luck to all.
 
I normally make straight bets, but is there ever any value in teasing 2 plays in CFB, e.g., Bama to the Over? I realize teasing can be fools gold, but some of the lines move so much after wizards like CK post, I often wonder if there's any value in teasing. As always, thanks for your insights and posts CK. Best of luck this week!
 
CrimsonK said:
Have seen some counter-measures from BOL and 5d but I'm not even a fly on the wall at BM. There are ways I've found to evade them but it's not something I am going to go into detail about for obvious reasons. I have modest goals with modest bet sizes. About ten years ago I tried to do this for a living and didn't enjoy it. I keep a similar approach but only touch limits on some of the small-market-openers. If I was betting the amount of money relative to my edge, I would have prob been asked to leave a few books or really constrained. I also only bet CFB, I don't mess with any other sports nor even watch them so I don't know if that helps or hurts me from the perspective of a bookmaker.
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thanks. From what I've read and seen, doesn't seem like a person such as yourself could make a living betting. Counters not to the level of card counting but closer than I would have ever thought - because if they make a good line the action should be 50/50 - theory I guess. About 15 years ago had an ex who wasn't working who a buddy of mine funded to play his Baccarat system at a very high $ unit (he was actually very sharp and made over $1M counting cards over 10 years but just thought he could beat it). Won't go into details but it involved a steep negative betting progression. Anyway, she never lost playing at the Suncoast here in LV. And they banned her from playing Baccarat!! Of course, the play eventually lost. But what I learned is that they will ban winners no matter what - even if you're just getting lucky. They just don't want (or need) the sharp action. Too many idiots and tourists who just don't care.

Again, thanks for posting.
 
Mitur Binisdirty said:
I normally make straight bets, but is there ever any value in teasing 2 plays in CFB, e.g., Bama to the Over? I realize teasing can be fools gold, but some of the lines move so much after wizards like CK post, I often wonder if there's any value in teasing. As always, thanks for your insights and posts CK. Best of luck this week!
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I would not recommend teasing CFB games under any circumstances. I only straight bet.
 
Gordon gekko said:
It's definitely tough to tail someone who's getting the best of the number, especially when it's moved 5-7 pts. For ex. Alabama at 63/71 would actually have to be a play on the under if you were to decide to play, imo. I remembering crushing all the numbers especially when BOL opened them, however only small numbers allowed. If they pick up what the English bookmakers are doing, it will be tough to find outs, in my opinion if CK continues to hit the books early. He seems to be right on many of the lines and as I always proclaimed, phuckk the bookies. I can't stand them..I'm curious to see what lines after sharp shops open that CK would suggest playing at 1 unit or .5 unit vs. soft openers. Just curious, good luck to all.
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I would strongly disagree that just because a line has moved eight points towards the over that all of a sudden the Under is the bet. Logic just doesn’t hold up. Let’s say few years ago apple stock jumped up to $100. Would it be time to short it without any reasoning other than it’s gone up? It’s $226 today.

I’m not sure I fully understand your question about 1 u or .5 u plays?
 
CrimsonK said:
I would strongly disagree that just because a line has moved eight points towards the over that all of a sudden the Under is the bet. Logic just doesn’t hold up. Let’s say few years ago apple stock jumped up to $100. Would it be time to short it without any reasoning other than it’s gone up? It’s $226 today.

I’m not sure I fully understand your question about 1 u or .5 u plays?
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My point is if a stock hits a high point (or thought of as high point) it's difficult to say to followers to buy at the high price. I'm not insinuating that you should play the under at all, I feel though the over has lost all or most of it's value. This is obviously short term thinking, not long run since it's only one event. My question on 1 unit or .5 units would be, you've hit the openers when you did and most players out there can't get those numbers, let's say over Alabama/Miss at 63, now it's 71, would you recommend that still at 1 unit or .5 units? I know that was a max play for you when BOL/BM opened the lines.
 
Gordon gekko said:
My point is if a stock hits a high point (or thought of as high point) it's difficult to say to followers to buy at the high price. I'm not insinuating that you should play the under at all, I feel though the over has lost all or most of it's value. This is obviously short term thinking, not long run since it's only one event. My question on 1 unit or .5 units would be, you've hit the openers when you did and most players out there can't get those numbers, let's say over Alabama/Miss at 63, now it's 71, would you recommend that still at 1 unit or .5 units? I know that was a max play for you when BOL/BM opened the lines.
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Gotcha. Yes, it’s currently at 70 at some shops and would be a 2 unit play for me on the over.
 
NFL Wong Teasers were the only truly profitable teasers that I have known about over the years (not saying there are not others) and the books figured it out and lowered the odds. 5 team NFL Wong teasers are still slightly profitable, particularly with lower totaled games (particularly with preseason). NFL totals and lines are much tighter than college. The games are far less volatile. As such the actual points are worth much more. A half point move in the NFL is different than a half point move in College. Also, as college games tend to have higher totals than NFL games, the teased points are worth less just from that alone.

My two cents.

Also, ... as a general rule don't tease totals and don't tease through the zero.
 
CrimsonK said:
Week 1: 27-13 (+28.60 units)
Week 2: 37-16 (+25.30 units)
Overall: 64-29 (+53.90 units)

GOY:

Houston +7 at Texas Tech -120 (1 unit)
USC at Texas +1 -120 (1 unit)
UCF at UNC +11 -120 (1 unit)

Regular:
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Sorry, a newbie to this site. You have these listed as GOY plays but they are 1 unit? Am I reading this correctly?
 
GOY just means it is a future weeks game that is offered by the sportsbook. They are considered "games of the year" by bookmkakers in terms on being big/exciting games, it doesn't mean that I think it's my best bet of the year, or anything like that. I can see how that may be confusing.

Anyway, got two more GOY. These are available on 5d, betusa, sportsbook, and prob some in vegas as well.

Week 10:

Texas PICK v. WVU -110 (1 unit)

Week 13:

Vanderbilt +1 v. Tennessee -110 (1.5 units)
 
Where do you find these on 5D? I've checked futures, standard NCAAF section and seemingly everywhere else with no success.
 
Jafar Armstrong Over 67.5 rush + rec -110 (1 unit)
Miles Boykin Over 3.5 rec +125 (1 unit)
Kalija Lipscomb Over 4.5 rec +125 (1 unit)
Kalija Lipscomb Over 62.5 rec yards -115 (1 unit)
Kyle Shurmur Over 207.5 pass yards -110 (1 unit)

Ryan Davis Over 52.5 rec yards -110 (1 unit)
Joe Burrow Over 11.5 completions +100 (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
Also one other thing I wanted to mention. I don’t plan on posting many plays that end up being outside of 1-3 units. Think it just helps to be consistent with frame of reference on cofidence. The Bama play was higher at 5u which I may have done like three times over past three seasons but that was the largest variance I’ve had between my number and what opened.
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Per usual you beat the piss out of that number, great get as I see 71 everywhere now.
 
CrimsonK said:
The bulk of my plays will come from BOL, BM, and 5d. I have about five others I use for a combo of props and shopping for stale lines. I am usually betting each side and total within 15 seconds of it opening. Sometimes I wait, for a number of reasons that could be too many to list. For example, I bet Bama Over 63 at 5:14 57 and by 5:17 39 it was 70. So that's seven points of movement in less than 180 seconds. Tailing me on a bet like that is impossible, I hardly have time to bet these, let alone bet and post them immediately. I have tried to post my bets to CTG real-time to be helpful but it hurts me too much and I'm not willing to do that. I've also debated just not posting anymore because I understand how challenging following someone with my style can be. I've elected to keep doing it because I think those that want to glean something from what I share find ways to chew the meat and spit the bones. It's possible to follow me, it's not [ossible to bet with the same edge that I have, so just understand that I may win some that you may not due to how much these move and my entire mission is to exploit an inefficient, immature market. It's going to be volatile, by its' very nature. I wish I could give you a blueprint for how to best utlilize information that I share, but I haven't found one. It's not your fault, it's not my fault, it's just nature of a dynamic, volatile market.
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Please never stop! The fact I can rarely get the line you have has not once stopped me from learning a great deal from your threads, not to mention I’ll often still do well selectively tailing worse numbers while choosing to pass on others (mostly just depending on what key numbers been crossed and whether I still think there room). My Saturday’s would be far less enjoyable if I didn’t have your thread to read when I wake up, greatly appreciate the time and effort you put into them.
 
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