NCAAF Week 3

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 1: 27-13 (+28.60 units)
Week 2: 37-16 (+25.30 units)
Overall: 64-29 (+53.90 units)

GOY:

Houston +7 at Texas Tech -120 (1 unit)
USC at Texas +1 -120 (1 unit)
UCF at UNC +11 -120 (1 unit)

Regular:
 
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How do you feel about the sc/texas matchup right now? Both teams a lot worse than we probably thought heading into the season.
 
Ball State +18 @ Indiana -110 (1.5 units)
UCF -11 @ UNC -110 (1.5 units)
Vanderbilt +14.5 @ Notre Dame (1 unit)
Virginia -5 v Ohio -110 (1 unit)
NC State +3.5 v WVU -110 (1 unit)
Baylor +3/+4 v Duke -110 (3 units)
Buffalo -3 v EMU -110 (1 unit)
Oregon State +7.5 @ Nevada -110 (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
Ball State +18 @ Indiana -110 (1.5 units)
UCF -11 @ UNC -110 (1.5 units)
Vanderbilt +14.5 @ Notre Dame (1 unit)
Virginia -5 v Ohio -110 (1 unit)
NC State +3.5 v WVU -110 (1 unit)
Baylor +3/+4 v Duke -110 (3 units)
Buffalo -3 v EMU -110 (1 unit)
Oregon State +7.5 @ Nevada -110 (1 unit)
Click to expand...

Great job as always on the openers at BOL! Looks like we are on the same side on 4 and not opposite on any, so that is a good thing!

I am rolling the dice and waiting on Vandy as I am banking on Irish money coming in during the week to hopefully get that line closer to 17 but we shall see.

Continued success this week!
 
AliShaheed said:
How do you feel about the sc/texas matchup right now? Both teams a lot worse than we probably thought heading into the season.
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Will try to share in more detail later. Basically, USC is about who I thought they were. This will be my third week in row fading them from summer bets. Just knew whether they went with less talented vet at QB or super talented kid, covering 5 scores, a trip to the farm, and a trip to Austin was a tall order. So far, so good.

Texas may not be as good as I expected. However, the main thing I really handicap with a Todd Orlando defense, can the opposing offense put together excellent passing play? Too hard to line up in pro style schemes without a dual threat QB and consistently move the ball on ground against them, IMO. USC much better matchup for their run defense than first two opponents. Offense still meh
 
No Jones for Duke so I would think it sees one way action for the near future before those that don't know back duke, and I am not sure those that don't know would know that duke would be a td favorite if Jones was in so not sure duke has backing of those people anyway. Not ck but my two cents. Assuming he is definitely out that is.
 
I would be surprised if much is even played on the East coast of NC and VA.
But, hate to see you on NC State. I have not been impressed at all.
 
RetroVK said:
No Jones for Duke so I would think it sees one way action for the near future before those that don't know back duke, and I am not sure those that don't know would know that duke would be a td favorite if Jones was in so not sure duke has backing of those people anyway. Not ck but my two cents. Assuming he is definitely out that is.
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College Football

GAME #165-166

Duke - QB Daniel Jones (Shoulder) is out indefinitely

Games PA PC PC% PY TD INT
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
2 39.0 29.0 0.0 389.0 4 0.0

http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...lose-qb-daniel-jones-cb-mark-gilbert-injuries
 
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Houston +3 @ Texas Tech (1.5 units)
Alabama -20.5 @ Ole Miss -115 (1.5 units)



UC Davis +36.5 -120( 1.5 units)
UC Davis/Stanford Over 64 -120 (1.5 units)
Lehigh @ Navy Under 68.5/71.5 -120 (3 units)

BC/Wake Over 49 -110 (1 unit)
UCF/UNC Under 64 -110 (2.5 units)
Rutgers/Kansas Under 47.5 -110 (1 unit)
GT/Pitt over 50.5 -110 (2.5 units)
WVU/NC State Under 58 -110 (2 units)
Tulane/UAB Over 51.5 -110 (2 units)
Houston/Texas Tech Over 65 -110 (1 unit)
EMU/Buffalo Over 49 -110 (1 unit)
Bama/Ole Miss Over 63 -110 (5 units)
Missouri/Purdue Over 57 -110 (2 units)
ULL/Miss St Over 58 -110 (2 units)
ULM/aTm Over 61.5 -110 (1 unit)
Washington/Utah Under 48 -110 (1 unit)
Fresno/UCLA Under 54 -110 (1 unit)
 
I will respond to a view of the other comments and questions from earlier, probably later this evening or tomorrow
 
The Five Pack said:
Baylor/Duke jumped to -1.5 for Baylor within minutes of your post. Thoughts on taking that or waiting?
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Prob too little, too late at this point. Baylor opened -6 at the books that have some sense and don't post Sunday openers without confirming a team's future NFL QB and CB are out. I think Jones is one of the 10 most valuable players to his team of any player in CFB. The dropoff from him to Harris is massive. The other option is a talented freshman, so no good options, really. Mark Gilbert is the best DB in the ACC and he is out for year as well. All that being said, the Baylor defense may just be brutal enough and Duke may just hit em with 50 runs and do enough to get it done. I would pass on Baylor at current and would actually consider Duke if Baylor takes much more money. I was just taking a price that I knew was going to be really bad.
 
B.A.R. said:
Just humming along ...

When you have time, talk to me about NC State/WVU. Thanks.
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Handicapped the hurricane here. Felt pretty confident that if this game gets played, big edge to the home team. Take away Grier his WRs and I don't know how good this team would be (I guess we will see for sure next year) but my thought is they aren't built well for weather. NC State, on the other hand, can run the ball better, has a passing game that dinks and dunks, and has the better defense. Wouldn't have gotten involved if I wasn't confident about this being a weather game. Same goes for total. As you can clearly see, HEAVY action across board on nearly every under that could be in wake of storm. If it changes course, there is gonna be a LOT of money betting overs in that region (however unlikely).
 
Also one other thing I wanted to mention. I don’t plan on posting many plays that end up being outside of 1-3 units. Think it just helps to be consistent with frame of reference on cofidence. The Bama play was higher at 5u which I may have done like three times over past three seasons but that was the largest variance I’ve had between my number and what opened.
 
I believe you mentioned it previously just confirming do you use BOL for your Sunday openers? Do they post FCS and crossover openers as well? Thanks again!
 
Added a couple speculative games. Not sure how the books will handle potential venue changes and such but thought I'd give it a go at what I percive to be bottoms with potentially more optimistic forecasts:

Ohio/UVA over 41 -110 (1 unit)
Temple/Maryalnd Over 45 -110 (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
Added a couple speculative games. Not sure how the books will handle potential venue changes and such but thought I'd give it a go at what I percive to be bottoms with potentially more optimistic forecasts:

Ohio/UVA over 41 -110 (1 unit)
Temple/Maryalnd Over 45 -110 (1 unit)
Click to expand...


Yup...worth it....

Sets up value, a middle or they plain ole cancel the bet.
 
B.A.R. said:
Yup...worth it....

Sets up value, a middle or they plain ole cancel the bet.
Click to expand...
I have UVA -5 on BOL and Over 41 on BM. I just saw BM rules, if they move it to nashville like is being speculated then the over 41 will be void but I'm not sure BOL and 5d rules (Ov 45 mary)?
 
CrimsonK said:
I have UVA -5 on BOL and Over 41 on BM. I just saw BM rules, if they move it to nashville like is being speculated then the over 41 will be void but I'm not sure BOL and 5d rules (Ov 45 mary)?
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Yeah, it would be no surprise if it was voided.

Either way though, someone here or on tweeter-verse may have an out that does allow this so good heads up.
 
Bet365 has very favorable rules for the uva scenario so if anyone has money there then I would prob go about 3u, maybe even more, on Over 44 (assuming game played in Nashville)
 
It looks like BM isn't going to void, which is against what their rules stated, but it's in my favor this time so I will stay quiet. Would be pissed if I were heavy with an under ticket on a terrible number. BOL already cancelled my UVA -5.
 
Latest radar makes me feel better. Added more to what is a really bad number if weather is okay.

Temple/Maryland Over 48 -110 (1 unit)
 
Crimson,

Few quick questions; what books do you use and when do you bet? Are you 360 only? You crush it here and clearly are crushing the game in general, but whenever I see your posts those lines are no longer available. Now that is my own fault; I am not usually refreshing the openers and I use a few locals who don't open until later in the week when lines have settled. Any advise on how to tail you and get the lines you do? Is it just a matter of playing at the right book and being online when the lines come out?
 
D-Woww said:
Crimson,

Few quick questions; what books do you use and when do you bet? Are you 360 only? You crush it here and clearly are crushing the game in general, but whenever I see your posts those lines are no longer available. Now that is my own fault; I am not usually refreshing the openers and I use a few locals who don't open until later in the week when lines have settled. Any advise on how to tail you and get the lines you do? Is it just a matter of playing at the right book and being online when the lines come out?
Click to expand...

The bulk of my plays will come from BOL, BM, and 5d. I have about five others I use for a combo of props and shopping for stale lines. I am usually betting each side and total within 15 seconds of it opening. Sometimes I wait, for a number of reasons that could be too many to list. For example, I bet Bama Over 63 at 5:14 57 and by 5:17 39 it was 70. So that's seven points of movement in less than 180 seconds. Tailing me on a bet like that is impossible, I hardly have time to bet these, let alone bet and post them immediately. I have tried to post my bets to CTG real-time to be helpful but it hurts me too much and I'm not willing to do that. I've also debated just not posting anymore because I understand how challenging following someone with my style can be. I've elected to keep doing it because I think those that want to glean something from what I share find ways to chew the meat and spit the bones. It's possible to follow me, it's not [ossible to bet with the same edge that I have, so just understand that I may win some that you may not due to how much these move and my entire mission is to exploit an inefficient, immature market. It's going to be volatile, by its' very nature. I wish I could give you a blueprint for how to best utlilize information that I share, but I haven't found one. It's not your fault, it's not my fault, it's just nature of a dynamic, volatile market.
 
How are you able to get in on the lines w/in 15 seconds of opening? Are you just hitting constantly hitting refresh on Sunday afternoons?
 
You also have to make decisions on which games to bet. For example, if I know I'm going to have an opportunity to pound a game, if I bet a game that is released like one game, maybe two ahead of it on the rotation, then I know I may miss the true opener on the game I really have targeted. It takes time to get that bet amount in, submit it, sometimes have it change prices at the window, once, maybe twice, maybe ghree times in 20 seconds, then get back to the main page and scroll down to where the next one is gonna drop. Gotta make split second decisions on opportunity costs. Betting openers is a wild experience. I've done it for so many years it's much more normalized than it prob should be for a person haha
 
CrimsonK said:
I would also recommend using this tool to track line movements and be alerted when a play you like may start steaming. It updates as close to real-time as any tool I've used does. If you click on an invidual game at a given sports book, it will show you line movement history. The only one that it doesnt tarck well is 5dimes on their crossovers. http://www.bettingtalk.com/odds/lines.php
Click to expand...
That's interesting as I have noticed that DB doesn't show/update 5D lines for the crossover games until the other books have dropped them, even though 5D leads the market on those games. I wonder why that is?
 
No idea, Tim. Doesn’t seem like any of the software grabs it. I was logged in and watched all but about four crossovers release this week. There was a surprising amount of activity.
 
CrimsonK said:
The bulk of my plays will come from BOL, BM, and 5d. I have about five others I use for a combo of props and shopping for stale lines. I am usually betting each side and total within 15 seconds of it opening. Sometimes I wait, for a number of reasons that could be too many to list. For example, I bet Bama Over 63 at 5:14 57 and by 5:17 39 it was 70. So that's seven points of movement in less than 180 seconds. Tailing me on a bet like that is impossible, I hardly have time to bet these, let alone bet and post them immediately. I have tried to post my bets to CTG real-time to be helpful but it hurts me too much and I'm not willing to do that. I've also debated just not posting anymore because I understand how challenging following someone with my style can be. I've elected to keep doing it because I think those that want to glean something from what I share find ways to chew the meat and spit the bones. It's possible to follow me, it's not [ossible to bet with the same edge that I have, so just understand that I may win some that you may not due to how much these move and my entire mission is to exploit an inefficient, immature market. It's going to be volatile, by its' very nature. I wish I could give you a blueprint for how to best utlilize information that I share, but I haven't found one. It's not your fault, it's not my fault, it's just nature of a dynamic, volatile market.
Click to expand...

Terrific post, crimson. I learned long ago that it’s impossible to mirror your plays. But the info you post is extremely valuable. Keep it going, and Roll Tide
 
CK, great thread. I have always tried to tail your picks and would get depressed because the lines had moved so much by the time you posted. But I just started playing them anyway. What I meant to do this year was actually track your plays (and numbers) against the Friday night line at BOL and 5D (crossover) and see how many had a different result due to the line movement - but I got lazy and didn't do it. Still based on my experience just betting what you do no matter the line difference, I don't think it's material - as long as you keep up your absurd winning %. Anyway, thanks for continuing to post. It helps folks like me make money.

Question. I don't know your betting bankroll and unit size, but do you get any pressure from 5D, BOL or BM for winning so much? Recently read an article on betting becoming legal that focused on William Hill banning winners from playing there - that they didn't want professional or professional level bettors. Just want the mass, donk market. doesn't seem like they've taken any action against you - unless it's to limit your betting unit size. thanks again
 
lvmike32 said:
CK, great thread. I have always tried to tail your picks and would get depressed because the lines had moved so much by the time you posted. But I just started playing them anyway. What I meant to do this year was actually track your plays (and numbers) against the Friday night line at BOL and 5D (crossover) and see how many had a different result due to the line movement - but I got lazy and didn't do it. Still based on my experience just betting what you do no matter the line difference, I don't think it's material - as long as you keep up your absurd winning %. Anyway, thanks for continuing to post. It helps folks like me make money.

Question. I don't know your betting bankroll and unit size, but do you get any pressure from 5D, BOL or BM for winning so much? Recently read an article on betting becoming legal that focused on William Hill banning winners from playing there - that they didn't want professional or professional level bettors. Just want the mass, donk market. doesn't seem like they've taken any action against you - unless it's to limit your betting unit size. thanks again
Click to expand...

Have seen some counter-measures from BOL and 5d but I'm not even a fly on the wall at BM. There are ways I've found to evade them but it's not something I am going to go into detail about for obvious reasons. I have modest goals with modest bet sizes. About ten years ago I tried to do this for a living and didn't enjoy it. I keep a similar approach but only touch limits on some of the small-market-openers. If I was betting the amount of money relative to my edge, I would have prob been asked to leave a few books or really constrained. I also only bet CFB, I don't mess with any other sports nor even watch them so I don't know if that helps or hurts me from the perspective of a bookmaker.
 
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