NCAAF Week 2

VirginiaCavs said:
Well Pat Narduzzi D gonna provide more resistance than App State. Penn St offense showed serious issues. Sanders clearly not Barkley. And it showed that McSorley was missing his top targets. Its basically a one-man offense where the guy leading it is used to being the wingman.
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I don't think McSorley shies away from the spotlight, think kid is a gamer and has showed now on multiple occasions he has "it", i don't know how that kid does it he's so frail but man he can run and throw. Seems almost easy to him at times, very savvy, A+ leader. I'm done doubting him. Not many can compare to Saquon but I don't think its as big a loss as many think for as great as I think Saquon was. Sanders is probably better at getting downhill for the tougher yards, he actually impressed me. They have another freshman RB who is dynamite. I turned on the game in the second half when i saw it was tied. WR KJ Hamler is a star in the making, went to my HS alma mater and then transferred to IMG for his sr year where he tore his ACL preseason. He flat out saved their ass in that game with his return and then td catch to tie it. Also caught a big bomb in the second half with an amazing catch. In high school when i saw him live he reminded me of Desean Jackson with the ball in his hands on returns and quick passes, joystick player. The St Marys coaches I still talk to said he is unbelievable with the ball in his hands, best they've ever seen (besides me of course) and there have been a ton of elite athletes (including myself) come through that school (Allen Robinson another one of them).
 
CrimsonK said:
I agree with you on liking Nevada's play makers. Oddly enough, their best player, McLane Mannix is a slot WR from Texas who was a Vandy commit before deciding to flip to Nevada. Anywho, I think this is going to be really tough sledding for them. Vandy just handled a more complete team than Nevada, 35-7. I think the Nevada offense is better equipped to do damage but this is still an SEC front going against a MWC OL and DL. That's just a massive edge, as you alluded to. Think Vandy has enough balance this year, particularly a capable passing attack, that is going to force Nevada to pick their poison. I look at Nevada last year against capable football teams:

31-20 loss to NW
37-24 loss to Toledo
45-7 loss to Wash St
41-21 loss to Fresno
41-14 loss to Boise
42-23 loss to SDSU

I think Nevada is capable of scoring 20 here. While Vandy's defense melted down last year after whipping MTSU, I'm more confident that they have righted the ship this year and while they may not have the excellent defenses that Mason fielded in past, they should be improved from last year's mess. So then I look at what do I think Nevada can do on defense? Not much. They didn't do much week one against an over matched Portland State that leads to believe they are going to be able to keep a balanced, SEC team in check. Their secondary still appears dreadful and I think once they deicde they have to load up to stop the ground game, they get torched for big plays as PS did to them last year. Going back to those games I mentioned above, their road spreads were +24 (P5), +28.5 (P5), +7.5, +20, +17 and now they are +8 or +10? I think them giving up something comparable in the high 30's mid 40's is likely here so they may need 30 here to cover the number. If the Vandy defense isn't improved, I guess it's possible, but I am not thinking that's likely. I really like the Nevada offense this year, I was actually wanting to bet the over more than I was looking to back Nevada but they got the total right and spread wrong, IMO. When Nevada can, they will prob maul teams, like Missouri last year, for example. Punish the patsies and much more pedestrian against good teams. I'll say 42-20 'Dores.
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Good take. Wanted to say that Vandy's #1 tackler and starting S LaDarius Wiley got ejected for targeting pretty early last week I believe it was early, 1st qrt. So like you say, Vandy faced a better O last week, and they did so without one of the most important players on D. They should have him for 4 qrts this week.
 
CrimsonK said:
Duke +4.5 -105 @ Northwestern (1 unit)
Vanderbilt -8 -110 v Nevada (2.5 units)
FAU -7 -105 v Air Force (2.5 units)
Buffalo +6.5 -110 @ Temple (1 unit)
Ball State +35.5/38.5 @ Notre Dame -115 (3 units)
Arkansas -6.5 -110 @ Colorado State (2 units)
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CK, sorry this may be a stupid question, but what is the 38.5 number after the line (+35.5) on your Ball State/ND pick? Thanks for your posts!
 
Mitur, didn't see CK in the thread, so allow me to explain. Since it is a 3 unit play, generally if a handicapper bets the same team but at different pointspreads, they will show both of the numbers they bet.

In this case, guessing CK has a portion of his 3 units on Ball State +35.5 and a portion of his 3 units on Ball State +38.5.

Hope this helps and welcome to the site.
 
scarf31 said:
Mitur, didn't see CK in the thread, so allow me to explain. Since it is a 3 unit play, generally if a handicapper bets the same team but at different pointspreads, they will show both of the numbers they bet.

In this case, guessing CK has a portion of his 3 units on Ball State +35.5 and a portion of his 3 units on Ball State +38.5.

Hope this helps and welcome to the site.
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OK, I understand now. Thank you for clarifying. I appreciate it!
 
scarf31 said:
Mitur, didn't see CK in the thread, so allow me to explain. Since it is a 3 unit play, generally if a handicapper bets the same team but at different pointspreads, they will show both of the numbers they bet.

In this case, guessing CK has a portion of his 3 units on Ball State +35.5 and a portion of his 3 units on Ball State +38.5.

Hope this helps and welcome to the site.
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Thanks, scarf. That is correct.

The limits are smaller on much of what I take at open so often times I will bet them and they will move a few times so I try to indicate the different numbers and prices that I got. In this instance, the 38.5 has most of my money but have .5 on 35.5. It moved 3 points in 36 seconds so by the time I could get again it was at 35.5.
 
B.A.R. said:
Yes, yes.

I am am guessing 3/3.5/4 points value on that come that week.
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Esp is Col handles business next two, into a bye. UCLA could have a 50 point loss on their resume and then a loss to a MWC team. Believe it was around PICK this summer and I almost bet every Col game cause I figured I'd have value. Kicking myself now, after one game at least.
 
CrimsonK said:
Forgot to post these GOY too:

Week 12:

Virginia Tech -2.5 v. Miami -110 (1.5 units)

Week 13:

NC State -3 @ UNC -110 (1 unit)
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In some of your posts, if you label or place “GOY” at the top of the heading, that is supposed to mean the plays you are most confident in?
 
Weather starting to bug me a bit in MW. Gonna come back with a little on

Howard/Kent State Under 66.5 -120 (1 unit)
 
FWIW: I'm going to keep all props at 1 unit this year for grading purposes.

Alex Barnes Over 64.5 rush yards -120 (1 unit)
Aeris Williams Under 82.5 rush yards -120 (1 unit)
Tyre McCants Over 4 rec -120 (1 unit)
Sean Poindexter Over 3 rec -120 (1 unit)
Sean Poindexter Over 39.5 rec yards -120 (1 unit)
 
Jake Bentley Over 210.5 passing yards -110 (1 unit)
D'Andre Swift Over 45.5 rushing yards -110 (1 unit) LOL
Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 receptions -110 (1 unit)
Deebo Samuel Over 59.5 rec yards -110 (1 unit)
 
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