NCAAF Week 2

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 1: 27-13 (+28.60 units)
Overall: 27-13 (+28.60 units)

Still have three pending for week one. Will update them after they play.

Week 2:

GOY:

Georgia at South Carolina +11/14.5 -115 (2 units)
Miss St -2.5 at Kansas State -120 (1 unit)
USC at Stanford -2 -120 (1 unit)
Iowa State +7 at Iowa -120 (1 unit)
 
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YAS was hoping to see you on the Gamecocks and I will be as well. The 11 is a good bit lower than the +20 candy they were handing out last year.
 
Great job as always in week 1. How do you feel about Iowa State considering they didn't play and Iowa looked so dominant vs N Illinois? Just curious.
 
Marsski said:
Great job as always in week 1. How do you feel about Iowa State considering they didn't play and Iowa looked so dominant vs N Illinois? Just curious.
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Would have preferred they play. I've often heard coaches say the most exponential improvements happen from week 1 to week 2. One reason why week two can be so profitable for bettors. Recency bias leads to some insane overcorrections in the market. I think this helps Iowa, for sure. I still like the 7 because I think it's going to be a FG better than the market but I wish they could have played a full game.
 
CK, congrats on nice opening weekend (as always). Do you know if BOL is coming out with openers today as usual and what time?
 
lvmike32 said:
CK, congrats on nice opening weekend (as always). Do you know if BOL is coming out with openers today as usual and what time?
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Thanks, everyone.

I don't know. IIRC, sometimes we don't get openers on week 2 until Monday. I'm preparing as best as I can as if they come in the next 5 hours, but I think it's 50/50 today or tomorrow.
 
CrimsonK said:
Thanks, everyone.

I don't know. IIRC, sometimes we don't get openers on week 2 until Monday. I'm preparing as best as I can as if they come in the next 5 hours, but I think it's 50/50 today or tomorrow.
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Last year, on Sunday, you posted your first bets for week 2 at 2:33pm eastern time.

One was Oregon -2.5 which was -6 10 minutes later(for reference).
 
Gonna post this here and will just do book keeping with week one:

Ahmmon Richards Over 3.5 receptions +125 (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
Week 1: 26-10 (+30.60 units)
Overall: 26-10 (+30.60 units)

Still have three pending for week one. Will update them after they play.

Week 2:

GOY:

Georgia at South Carolina +11/14.5 -115 (2 units)
Miss St -2.5 at Kansas State -120 (1 unit)
USC at Stanford -2 -120 (1 unit)
Iowa State +7 at Iowa -120 (1 unit)
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Nice work man! Glad I found this thread yesterday before some of those games. Just was trying to clarify here, obviously you are on all the teams that have the spreads listed next to them, by with the heading GOY... are you selecting all 4 of them or is there just one in particular?
 
T-Rex said:
Nice work man! Glad I found this thread yesterday before some of those games. Just was trying to clarify here, obviously you are on all the teams that have the spreads listed next to them, by with the heading GOY... are you selecting all 4 of them or is there just one in particular?
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Glad it worked out for you. The teams with the spread by them are the ones I bet this summer:

South Carolina +11 & +14.5 -115 (2 units)
Miss St -2.5 -120 (1 unit)
Stanford -2 -120 (1 unit)
Iowa State +7 -120 (1 unit)
 
Just a housekeeping note as far as what my plan is for posting, often times BOL will open totals and sides, they already opened sides, and then BM will follow on Sunday late afternoon/early evening. I take a bunch of stuff at BOL and also BM when they open and my plan is to wait to post my sides and totals until after BM posts them - so that will prob be about 7 PM EST on Sunday night and earlier afternoon on Mondays for totals. Just wanted to share my plan as I've gotten some questions about that. Several I've taken on BOL have already moved a good bit so hopefully once BM opens and there is a more stable market, there could be more value that were closer to what I got at open.
 
Duke +4.5 -105 @ Northwestern (1 unit)
Vanderbilt -8 -110 v Nevada (2.5 units)
FAU -7 -105 v Air Force (2.5 units)
Buffalo +6.5 -110 @ Temple (1 unit)
Ball State +35.5/38.5 @ Notre Dame -115 (3 units)
Arkansas -6.5 -110 @ Colorado State (2 units)
 
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Thoughts on Vandy? I’m waiting to see how high that one goes but really want to back Nevada. I love their playmakers and could see it being a back and forth, one possession type game. Can Vandy just overwhelm them up front?
 
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M.O.T said:
Thoughts on Vandy? I’m waiting to see how high that one goes but really want to back Nevada. I love their playmakers and could see it being a back and forth, one possession type game. Can Vandy just overwhelm them up front?
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I will give some thoughts this evening. I have some potential interest in the total so I'll give you my .02 after that releases.
 
William & Mary Over/Virginia Tech Over 41 -120 (1 unit)
Portland State/Oregon Over 74 -120 (1 unit)
Howard/Kent State Over 55/55.5 -120 (2 units)
Wagner/Syracuse Over 55/55.5/56 -120 (3 units)
 
North Texas -36.5 v. Incarnate Word -120 (1 unit)
Incarnate Word/North Texas Over 74.5 -120 (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
William & Mary Over/Virginia Tech Over 41 -120 (1 unit)
Portland State/Oregon Over 74 -120 (1 unit)
Howard/Kent State Over 55/55.5 -120 (2 units)
Wagner/Syracuse Over 55/55.5/56 -120 (3 units)
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Where are you betting some of these? For example the Syr OV.. Dont see them opened anywhere.... Thanks!
 
AFA/FAU Over 64.5 -110 (1 unit)

Kansas/CMU Under 55.5 -110 (1 unit)

Baylor/UTSA Over 47.5 -110 (1 unit)

Arkansas State/Alabama Over 59 -110 (2.5 units)

Colorado/Nebraska Over 59 -110 (1 unit)

Ball State/Notre Dame Over 58 -110 (2.5 units)

Clemson/aTm Under 57 -110 (2.5 units)

UVA/Indiana Over 52.5 -110 (1 unit)

Kentucky/Florida Under 53.5 (2 units)

Penn State/Pitt Under 58.5 -110 (1 unit)

UConn/Boise Over 62 -110 (1 unit)

SJSU/Washington State Over 61/62.5 -110 (2.5 units)
 
Interesting on under in PSU Pitt....you know a lot more than me but just curious if you think Pitt controls this game? PSU offense looked explosive last week and defense looked awful. I was thinking of blindly betting their overs weekly. I know Pitt has had 8 minute drives that lead to punts but any input appreciated. I see 34-27 type game.
 
Well Pat Narduzzi D gonna provide more resistance than App State. Penn St offense showed serious issues. Sanders clearly not Barkley. And it showed that McSorley was missing his top targets. Its basically a one-man offense where the guy leading it is used to being the wingman.
 
M.O.T said:
Thoughts on Vandy? I’m waiting to see how high that one goes but really want to back Nevada. I love their playmakers and could see it being a back and forth, one possession type game. Can Vandy just overwhelm them up front?
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I agree with you on liking Nevada's play makers. Oddly enough, their best player, McLane Mannix is a slot WR from Texas who was a Vandy commit before deciding to flip to Nevada. Anywho, I think this is going to be really tough sledding for them. Vandy just handled a more complete team than Nevada, 35-7. I think the Nevada offense is better equipped to do damage but this is still an SEC front going against a MWC OL and DL. That's just a massive edge, as you alluded to. Think Vandy has enough balance this year, particularly a capable passing attack, that is going to force Nevada to pick their poison. I look at Nevada last year against capable football teams:

31-20 loss to NW
37-24 loss to Toledo
45-7 loss to Wash St
41-21 loss to Fresno
41-14 loss to Boise
42-23 loss to SDSU

I think Nevada is capable of scoring 20 here. While Vandy's defense melted down last year after whipping MTSU, I'm more confident that they have righted the ship this year and while they may not have the excellent defenses that Mason fielded in past, they should be improved from last year's mess. So then I look at what do I think Nevada can do on defense? Not much. They didn't do much week one against an over matched Portland State that leads to believe they are going to be able to keep a balanced, SEC team in check. Their secondary still appears dreadful and I think once they deicde they have to load up to stop the ground game, they get torched for big plays as PS did to them last year. Going back to those games I mentioned above, their road spreads were +24 (P5), +28.5 (P5), +7.5, +20, +17 and now they are +8 or +10? I think them giving up something comparable in the high 30's mid 40's is likely here so they may need 30 here to cover the number. If the Vandy defense isn't improved, I guess it's possible, but I am not thinking that's likely. I really like the Nevada offense this year, I was actually wanting to bet the over more than I was looking to back Nevada but they got the total right and spread wrong, IMO. When Nevada can, they will prob maul teams, like Missouri last year, for example. Punish the patsies and much more pedestrian against good teams. I'll say 42-20 'Dores.
 
detroit187 said:
Interesting on under in PSU Pitt....you know a lot more than me but just curious if you think Pitt controls this game? PSU offense looked explosive last week and defense looked awful. I was thinking of blindly betting their overs weekly. I know Pitt has had 8 minute drives that lead to punts but any input appreciated. I see 34-27 type game.
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I bet so many totals I get used to taking unders when you gotta quench your cheeks for three hours. This isn't quite a full pucker, but I can see how it goes sideways. Without having done a deep dive of the App St/PSU game, think Penn State defense looks like they did pretty well against the run. Appy has a tough run game and stop and they held up well. They also have a QB that can run and I think that is good prep for Pitt. Pickett wont have near as many designed runs but he has to be accounted for as a runner. I'm still not ready to buy Pitt as a bona fide, capable pass offense, but I can dig them being better with Kenny P under center. The main area where I see potential improvement with Pitt is on defense. That's the only reason the Nard Dog got hired, his defensive prowess. Without getting too "Inside Baseball", his defense requires very capable players in the secondary that can hold up in man coverage. If you are watching the VT/FSU game right now, it's comparabe to what FSU is doing on defense from a schematic standpoint, and so far, the results for FSU have been about as good as they were for Pitt the first few years. I think they finally have the right mix of experience and talent in the secondary to be much improved. I think we could see from the first week that PSU OL is still not very good, but a player like Barkley and his ability to create yardage for himself helps to mask that. I'm also a massive Joe Moorhead fan and I do think when you combine his loss with Barkley's, it's safe to assume the offense could take a bit of time to ramp up. Anyway, don't have a ton else to offer up here, but I see it as a hard fough, rivalry game that finishes 31-21 ish.
 
CrimsonK said:
I agree with you on liking Nevada's play makers. Oddly enough, their best player, McLane Mannix is a slot WR from Texas who was a Vandy commit before deciding to flip to Nevada. Anywho, I think this is going to be really tough sledding for them. Vandy just handled a more complete team than Nevada, 35-7. I think the Nevada offense is better equipped to do damage but this is still an SEC front going against a MWC OL and DL. That's just a massive edge, as you alluded to. Think Vandy has enough balance this year, particularly a capable passing attack, that is going to force Nevada to pick their poison. I look at Nevada last year against capable football teams:

31-20 loss to NW
37-24 loss to Toledo
45-7 loss to Wash St
41-21 loss to Fresno
41-14 loss to Boise
42-23 loss to SDSU

I think Nevada is capable of scoring 20 here. While Vandy's defense melted down last year after whipping MTSU, I'm more confident that they have righted the ship this year and while they may not have the excellent defenses that Mason fielded in past, they should be improved from last year's mess. So then I look at what do I think Nevada can do on defense? Not much. They didn't do much week one against an over matched Portland State that leads to believe they are going to be able to keep a balanced, SEC team in check. Their secondary still appears dreadful and I think once they deicde they have to load up to stop the ground game, they get torched for big plays as PS did to them last year. Going back to those games I mentioned above, their road spreads were +24 (P5), +28.5 (P5), +7.5, +20, +17 and now they are +8 or +10? I think them giving up something comparable in the high 30's mid 40's is likely here so they may need 30 here to cover the number. If the Vandy defense isn't improved, I guess it's possible, but I am not thinking that's likely. I really like the Nevada offense this year, I was actually wanting to bet the over more than I was looking to back Nevada but they got the total right and spread wrong, IMO. When Nevada can, they will prob maul teams, like Missouri last year, for example. Punish the patsies and much more pedestrian against good teams. I'll say 42-20 'Dores.
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Noticed Vandy only ran 55 plays vs. MTSU and threw 17 times, and seemed content to rely on their defense which really shut down Stockstill, only 178 pyds and 4.8 ypc. Vandy also had 6 sacks and limited MTSU to 3.2 ypr. Vandy is short on depth defensively and I'm thinking they may want to follow the same script again this week, and rely on controlling the LOS and emphasize the running game and limit Nevada possessions to some extent. Nevada does have a lot of weapons offensively, but I think they are going to have a tough time matching up on the LOS.
 
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Houston -4 v. Arizona -110 (1 unit)

Quite a few 4' and 4 juiced out there but if you shop off-Broadway, -110s are there.
 
carolinablue said:
I had my eye on this one as well but was going to wait until later this week to see if it goes down to 3.
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I debated it. Felt conflicted about potential movement. If memory serves, was a PICK in the futures market this summer. Opened 3.5 on BM and has bounced some. I could see how there would be some that were both uninspired by Houston last week and believing that Zona game was an aberration. That being said, appears that once Houston settled in they did their thing and showed how explosive they can be. I liked both teams pre-season. Watched whole Zona/BYU game and cats were amongst most disappointing teams I saw. New offensive scheme turned Tate into a below average QB with below average skill players and the defense looked SOFT. Multiple instances where it was clear they wanted none of trying to tackle BYU. Perhaps even more concerning, BYU has the collective athleticism of a men’s church league softball team and Zona didn’t look like they were much faster. That’s a problem when you face Houston who may not be as physical as BYU, but they are gonna be wayyyyy faster. Just unsure how good this marriage between Mazonne and Tate will be early on. I sure hope they don’t ruin one of the most fun CFB players but if they ask him to a Manning under center then they surely could.
 
CrimsonK said:
I debated it. Felt conflicted about potential movement. If memory serves, was a PICK in the futures market this summer. Opened 3.5 on BM and has bounced some. I could see how there would be some that were both uninspired by Houston last week and believing that Zona game was an aberration. That being said, appears that once Houston settled in they did their thing and showed how explosive they can be. I liked both teams pre-season. Watched whole Zona/BYU game and cats were amongst most disappointing teams I saw. New offensive scheme turned Tate into a below average QB with below average skill players and the defense looked SOFT. Multiple instances where it was clear they wanted none of trying to tackle BYU. Perhaps even more concerning, BYU has the collective athleticism of a men’s church league softball team and Zona didn’t look like they were much faster. That’s a problem when you face Houston who may not be as physical as BYU, but they are gonna be wayyyyy faster. Just unsure how good this marriage between Mazonne and Tate will be early on. I sure hope they don’t ruin one of the most fun CFB players but if they ask him to a Manning under center then they surely could.
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Thanks for the detailed response man, as I always appreciate your in-depth knowledge and insight. Continued success this week!

CB
 
CrimsonK said:
William & Mary Over/Virginia Tech Over 41 -120 (1 unit)
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William & Mary/Virginia Tech Under 50 -120 (1 unit)

Grossly underestimated the Va Tech defense. They were terrifying. Unlikely that Bill & Mary scores much here so hoping for a 42-2 final. Like both as independent wagers so taking a shot.
 
RetroVK said:
On quite a few of the same after you abused them. Thoughtsbon wmich plz
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GL to us this week!

Thought WMU defended Cuse pretty well. I know that seems silly to say after giving up 55 but it's a totally diff deal here against Michigan. Really the only thing that worked was the QB power with Dungey. Combine that wil their tempo and that's what did them in. Cuse threw it about as well as a service academy and will likely have a top passing offense this year so I feel encouraged about WMU ability to replace the talented secondary players. While Shea isn't a statue, he's certainly not the threat Dungey was to break Lamar Jackson's ACC QB rushing records. Michigan OL is trash so think WMU can hold up okay, maybe. Not buying the pass offense of Michigan at this juncture and think their traditional run game can be somewhat held in check if game one by WMU was any indication. I'm not expecting them to flat-out shut everything down, I just think this Michigan offense is still not very good. I'm still unsure what to make of the WMU OL. Cuse really struggled to pressure them, which at this point, may be more indicative of Cuse than WMU - I don't know. Michigan continues to struggle with mobile QBs and I like Wassink's ability to do damage as a runner and think that's a key component of the game. Michigan's front and entire defense is so good, it's hard for me to imagine WMu doing a whole bunch of scoring, but at +28 and a total of 56', I'm fine with that. 10 points is probably enough to get there and every team Mich played last season got to at least 10 on Michigan, including Florida, Cinci, Air Force , Rutgers, Minny. Sleepy game for Michigan here, in-state directional school prob more motivated.

To boil it down more concisely, think the quarterabcks will be the difference. WMU's dual-threat ability on offense and the fact that Michigan doesn't have a QB that is going to be able to do what Dungey did.
 
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