NCAAF Week 14

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Week 4: 28-19 (+2.67 units)
Week 5: 19-15 (+1.28 units)
Week 6: 21-16 (-5.06 units)
Week 7: 19-13 (+11.46 units)
Week 8: 22-19 (+9.23 units)
Week 9: 14-16 (-3.85 units)
Week 10: 22-10 (+15.02 units)
Week 11: 18-10 (+8.05 units)
Week 12: 22-15 (+7.42 units)
Week 13: 35-19 (+16.59 units)
Overall: 305-210 (+90.73 units)

Games played in futures market:

Ole Miss +18.5 @ Miss St -120 (1 unit)
Cincinnati +9.5/11.5 @ Memphis -115 avg (4 units)
Washington -6.5 v. Washington State -120 (1 unit)
Oklahoma State +10.5/15.5 v. Oklahoma -115 (2 units)
Oklahoma -10.5 @ Oklahoma State -110 (1 unit)
FSU +14.5/21 @ Florida -113 avg (2 units)
Texas -3 v. Texas Tech -110 (2 units)
Louisville +9 @ Kentucky -110 (1 unit)
Texas AM +18.5 @ LSU -110 (1 unit)
Michigan +13 v. Ohio State -110 (1 unit)
UNC -1 @ NC State -110 (1.5 units)
 
Awesome work as usual!
Do you keep a separate record of your plays that were played in the future market? I’d be curious to see your W/L record and units won in those games compared to your weekly bets.
 
louie0122 said:
Awesome work as usual!
Do you keep a separate record of your plays that were played in the future market? I’d be curious to see your W/L record and units won in those games compared to your weekly bets.
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I don’t. I don’t really keep very good or detailed records. I literally just had the bets typed on my notes app yesterday and use my phone calculator. My computer is in shop. I dont really think about things in silos. It’s just all wagers to me
 
Memphis -9/9.5 v Cincinnati -110 (3.5 units)
Iowa State -3 @ Kansas State -108 (1 unit)
Navy -7 @ Houston -110 (1.5 units)
Wisconsin -2 @ Minnesota -110 (1 unit)
Oklahoma -12 @ Oklahoma State -108 (1 unit)

Don’t have a super strong recommendation for Memphis and Oklahoma. Those are related to my previous positions.

I have learned that I’m best served not betting a ton of volume this week. Last week was where all the fun was had, this week, I prefer to watch games as a fan, in a turkey coma. Will still prob have a fair amount of total tomorrow, just sharing my philosophy.
 
Two other housekeeping items. I realized I posted FSU +14 previously and not 14.5 which is what I actually have pending. I’ll grade 1u of that at 14.

Also, these were the only other futures I posted this season and will include them as 1Us in this weeks record:

RSW:

Cincinnati Over 6 -102 W
ECU Over 3.5 -108 W
Syracuse Over 5 -114 ?
Virginia Over 6 -102 W
Purdue Under 8 +124 W
Army Over 8.5 -108 L
Missouri Over 6.5 -108 L
Louisiana Over 5.5 -130 W
 
As always WONDERFUL job CK! Just curious from your years in the betting community but any recommendations for NFL handicappers?

Best of luck rest of season man
 
BigTymePlayer25 said:
any Iron Bowl early thoughts CK?
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No real surprise on the current line or circa total. If I had to play a side it would Auburn +4. I don’t feel particularly optimistic that Jones can crack this defense. I probably won’t bet the game. I’ll share more thought later.
 
Bossman71 said:
As always WONDERFUL job CK! Just curious from your years in the betting community but any recommendations for NFL handicappers?

Best of luck rest of season man
Click to expand...
Thank you!

I don’t have a good recommendation. I don’t bet or follow any other sports, so I’m not much help there. I don’t ever go to CTG NFL forum or keep up with anyone on Twitter. @joeyknish22 is a friend and he posts some sporadic NFL stuff on Twitter that seems to do well.
 
VT/UVA Over 47 -110 (1 unit)
Virginia +3 v Virginia Tech -110 (1 unit)
Texas Tech/Texas Under 69 -110 (2 units)
Iowa/Nebraska Under 48.5 -110 (2 units)
Missouri/Arkansas Under 56 -110 (1.5 units)
Washington State/Washington Under 65 -110 (1.5 units)
App State/Troy Over 65 -110 (1 unit)
FIU/Marshall Under 51.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Wake/Cuse Over 64 -110 (1 unit)
Ohio State/Michigan Under 55.5 -110 (1 unit)
Clemson/South Carolina Under 52 -110 (1 unit)
Wisconsin/Minnesota Under 50 -110 (1 unit)
NMSU/Liberty Under 67 -110 (2 units)
Colorado/Utah Under 51.5 -110 (1 unit)
Texas AM/LSU Over 61 -110 (1 unit)
Ga St/Ga So Over 57 -110 (1 unit)
Maryland/Michigan State Under 50-110 (1 unit)
FAU -7.5/9 v So Miss -109 avg (1.5 units)
Cal/UCLA Over 49 -110 (1 unit)
Utah State/New Mexico Under 64 -110 (1.5 units)
BYU -2.5 @ SDSU -113 (1 unit)

Have a few circas sprinkled in there this week. I didn’t expect to bet this much, but scared money don’t make money. Happy thanksgiving!
 
Unfuckwitable as usual.

I know the media is pumping it up, but really think LSU going to serve TAMU.....so much shit besides game last year with Craig, Woodward, attempted Aranda heist, attempted Jimbo heist etc
 
twinkie13 said:
Unfuckwitable as usual.

I know the media is pumping it up, but really think LSU going to serve TAMU.....so much shit besides game last year with Craig, Woodward, attempted Aranda heist, attempted Jimbo heist etc
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Kinda one reason why I like the over. If Jimbo starts passing from the beginning and doesn’t wait until the second half, I think they will cover my number. If they just expect they are gonna be predictable and run it well enough to hang, it will be ugly.

Saw Bud Elliott say that aTm YPP is more than double when they are trailing than when they are playing with a lead. Something like 7 versus 3. This ain’t your granddaddy’s remember the Titans team, Jimbo!
 
Any thoughts on Arkansas +12? After game 1 vs Wyoming, in the 3 road games vs SEC competition Mizzou has put up 21 total points....and they haven't score over 20 points in a game since Oct 12th....Hogs not much better though....lol
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Any thoughts on Arkansas +12? After game 1 vs Wyoming, in the 3 road games vs SEC competition Mizzou has put up 21 total points....and they haven't score over 20 points in a game since Oct 12th....Hogs not much better though....lol
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It’s the only way I could play the game. I think it’s gonna be an ugly, low scoring game, and this favors the DD dog. I preferred Under but considered Hogs as well. Perhaps Missouri TT Under could also accomplish your goal. It will be 31.5+
 
CrimsonK said:
Memphis -9/9.5 v Cincinnati -110 (3.5 units)
Iowa State -3 @ Kansas State -108 (1 unit)
Navy -7 @ Houston -110 (1.5 units)
Wisconsin -2 @ Minnesota -110 (1 unit)
Oklahoma -12 @ Oklahoma State -108 (1 unit)

Don’t have a super strong recommendation for Memphis and Oklahoma. Those are related to my previous positions.

I have learned that I’m best served not betting a ton of volume this week. Last week was where all the fun was had, this week, I prefer to watch games as a fan, in a turkey coma. Will still prob have a fair amount of total tomorrow, just sharing my philosophy.
Click to expand...

Fair to assume you don’t really like Bearcats any longer since you bought off majority your future? Curious as to where you have it if you have a minute.
 
2daBank said:
Fair to assume you don’t really like Bearcats any longer since you bought off majority your future? Curious as to where you have it if you have a minute.
Click to expand...
Yeah their offense is entirely in the toilet I don’t think they can trade blows. I think the current market on side and total are pretty appropriate , because you always have to account for the potential that Brady white goes into the toilet himself against a decent defense.
 
CrimsonK said:
Yeah their offense is entirely in the toilet I don’t think they can trade blows. I think the current market on side and total are pretty appropriate , because you always have to account for the potential that Brady white goes into the toilet himself against a decent defense.
Click to expand...

Certainly fair. I been trying to figure out what cincy defense had to hold tigers to have a shot at covering. Seems like Memphis gonna hit low/mid 30s in which case I’m not real sure. Memphis have been known to give up a lot of points at times., def understand getting out that big a position, tough game to cap.

Thanks and gl this week.
 
Another one where upon further review I want out with a chance for both. DTR hasn’t practice yet this week and came off field limping v SC. If you didn’t take the initial over, would prob just avoid the game.

Cal/UCLA Under 51.5 -115 (1 unit)
 
Missed it before the move started. Liked it as standalone but now weather comforms

ND/Stanford Under 49.5 -115 (1 unit)
 
lumpy19 said:
Gonna need a few more easy ones like this, thanks
Click to expand...
Just pray Leach doesn’t go to Arkansas and I’ll dial you one up in about 365ish days.


“Lake’s schemes have been a nuissance for Mike Leach and WSU during the last six rivalry meetings – all won by the Huskies – and his bold comments in the days and weeks before and after the various Apple Cups have incited even more dislike for the sixth-year UW assistant.

After the 2015 game, Lake told KJR’s Dave “Softy” Mahler, of WSU’s Air Raid offense, “They try to make it basketball on grass, kind of throwing the ball around like it’s 7-on-7. And that’s not what football is. Football is hard-nosed, tough-nosed. … I’m sure on Saturday morning, they felt who was the more physical team.”

And, about the WSU receivers: “What I did see were some nervous receivers going across the middle, some nervous receivers going downfield. I did see that, after they got hit a few times.”

Then in 2016, after a 45-17 Husky romp, Lake doubled down, describing the Apple Cup as “our favorite of the game of the year,” explaining that “anytime an offense, when we know they’re going to throw the ball 60 times, it really makes game-planning easy. They did a better job – they got four more points than they had the last three years. But this is our favorite game of the year, and I hope (the Cougars) continually do exactly what they’re doing because this is an awesome game to play.”

Lake’s comments had the Cougars’ attention again last year, when the Spokane native and former Eastern Washington safety said after a 28-13 win that Leach’s offense looked “Exactly the same. Exactly the same.”

Added Lake: “Next year maybe he’ll throw a little curveball, but it makes it very easy when you know what you’re going to get. … But knowing what I read about the head football coach here, he does things a little bit different way. So hopefully he remains here for a long time. That would be awesome.”
 
I"m not understanding nor will I ever understand the ongoing admiration of Leach. He'll win the pressers with the cute quotes and all that. I get it. Other than that he's running an antiquated offense, is prone to a lot of coaching idiocy and, probably worst of all, seems to think his team's on field performance is always on them, and never on himself.
 
Gonna try to grab a middle on this one. Weather system gonna be a little later than I hoped. Prob good for Mich bet though.

Ohio State/Michigan Over 50.5 -105 (1 unit)
 
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