NCAAF Week 12

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 1: 27-13 (+28.60 units)
Week 2: 37-16 (+25.30 units)
Week 3: 24-14 (+10.70 units)
Week 4: 23-22 (-10.40 units)
Week 5: 21-18 (+6.00 units)
Week 6: 22-7 (+21.84 units)
Week 7: 21-15 (+8.65 units)
Week 8: 19-19 (-1.82 units)
Week 9: 22-15 (+8.55 units)
Week 10: 20-10 (+9.83 units)
Week 11: 17-10 (+6.00 units)
Overall: 253-159 (+113.25 units)

GOY:

Virginia Tech -2.5 v. Miami -110 (1.5 units)
North Texas +7.5 v. Florida Atlantic -110 (1.5 units)
Fresno State -5 v. SDSU -110 (1 unit)
Oregon -9 v. Arizona State -120 (1 unit)
 
You are the model of consistency my friend! Keep up the fantastic work as you truly are a tremendous asset to this site. Continued success on that vacation fund (you and I have the same mentality there by the way) and I hope you have some great trips planned in 2019!

CB
 
carolinablue said:
You are the model of consistency my friend! Keep up the fantastic work as you truly are a tremendous asset to this site. Continued success on that vacation fund (you and I have the same mentality there by the way) and I hope you have some great trips planned in 2019!

CB
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Thanks, CB! Appreciate the kind words. Have a great Sunday.
 
Georgia Tech -6 v Virginia -110 (1 unit)
Texas Tech -5 @ Kansas State -110 (1 unit)
Cincinnati +11 @ UCF -110 (1 unit)
Vanderbilt -2.5 v Ole Miss -110 (1.5 units)
 
KJ said:
Lol can't believe they hung 11 out there, good grab
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Was weird week. BOL released real late and BM swooped in and released theirs in middle of BOL drop. Thankfully BOL had this one right before BM released it at 8.
 
skanless13 said:
damn, nice grab on the early cincy line..11. i'm guessing it's a no play for you at 7?
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Thanks! Looks like it's settling 7.5 now. I think at that number I would get involved as well. I only played 1u at +11 because I understand like when I played Temple +12 v UCF, you gonna have to overcome the refs as well. $$$
 
I don't want to step in front of the Clemson train if I can help it but ... ummm ... isn't that line a little on the way too high side? what did you make that one?
 
RetroVK said:
I don't want to step in front of the Clemson train if I can help it but ... ummm ... isn't that line a little on the way too high side? what did you make that one?
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These are my notes:

Duke @ Clemson (-26/55.5)
Mathletes aint cuttin it in this series. Duke is going to be overmatched in nearly every facet of the game, physically overwhelmed and dominated. Duke defense would need a heroic effort here. Only allowed two team to score 32+ but this will be diff beast. Their offense is playing very well right now but the defense has regressed. I'm more scared of them playing poor defense and it negatively impacting the game than I am conifdent that a great offensive game would really be enough. As great as Daniel Jones is playing, I don't trust his OL to hold up and don't believe his recievers are dynamic enough to consistently separate and execute. Pace could be high so chance to see a lot of snaps. 20 points would be the absolute top end, dream scenario for Duke. Very likely to be a fraction of that. Clemson held last 5 ACC foe to avg of 8 PPG. In spite of their usual pace, Cutcliffe is likely to do his best to shorten the game and implement any other tactics he can to give his guys a chance but I fear the Jimmy and Joe disadvantage is too much relative to any potential edge in Xs and Os. Duke already bowl eligible and coming off rivalry win and are in somewhat of a sammich (not really though, it's Clemson so they will be up). Clemson needs every game and USCe on deck means very little these days. Clemson 41-14.
 
Citadel +59.5/60.5 @ Alabama -120 (3 units)
Colgate +14.5 @ Army -120 (1.5 units)
Colgate/Army Over 34 -120 (1 unit)
UTC +35.5 @ South Carolina -120 (1.5 units)
WCU/UNC Over 75 -120 (1 unit)
Idaho/Florida Over 55 -120 (2 units)
 
Just a heads up, will be off grid much of this week. Will post totals later today and perhaps pop in with any adds but won’t be around to answer many questions from Wed-Sat.
 
B.A.R. said:
Like that 3 unit play on Shitadel.
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Can’t imagine Tua even dresses and Hurts is hurt. Get QB3 some easy throws, just in case, try not to get cut block for an unnecessary amount of time (they are triple option) and move onto iron bowl.

Forgot to post this one:

Citadel/Alabama Under 66.5 -120 (1.5 units)
 
Tulane/Houston Over 68 -110 (1 unit)
USF/Temple Over 57.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Missouri/Tennessee Under 58 -110 (1.5 units)
Cincinnati/UCF Over 55.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Liberty/Auburn Over 59.5 -110 (1 unit)
FIU/Charlotte Under 57 -110 (1 unit)
New Mexico State/BYU Over 58 -110 (1 unit)
Arizona State/Oregon Over 59 -110 (1 unit)
BC/FSU Under 52.5 -110 (1 unit)
Miami/VT Over 49.5 -110 (1 unit)
Michigan State/Nebraska Over 49 -110 (1 unit)
UNLV/Hawaii Over 66.5 -110 (1 unit)
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Interesting an „over“ with Mich State. Whats the reasoning there pls? :)
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Pretty much relying on Dantonio to make proper decision based on results and the comments that Lewerke made after the game where he pretty much says he has no arm left and hopes it will be back by next year. He's a complete liability on the field now but I imagine he has to be done for regular season, at minimum. I like Lombardi to bring some jucie to the offense and I think Neb def is the perfect remedy. They are giving up 30+ to anybody with a pulse. Nebraska's biggest weakness is in pass defense and Sparty offense needn't really try to run, they can air ir out. The current Nebraska offense will be the best offense that Sparty has faced sinced Utah State, who scored 31 on them and used their tempo to create issues as well. Anytime I have the opportunity to bet a total when the week prior one of the teams was totaled (and exceeded) more than 22 points higher, I have to give it a hard look. This is is an instance where I believe that Sparty benefits from a full week of the best option at QB, has a favorable matchup for their offense for their first time since Purdue, where it was Lombardi and they had one of of their best days on offense all season. Should be a pretty open game with neither team really having anything to play for, so I don't forsesee their being the typical Dantonio conservatism. Basically just a few elements culminating together where I think the number is a bit lower than what it should be.
 
CrimsonK said:
Pretty much relying on Dantonio to make proper decision based on results and the comments that Lewerke made after the game where he pretty much says he has no arm left and hopes it will be back by next year. He's a complete liability on the field now but I imagine he has to be done for regular season, at minimum. I like Lombardi to bring some jucie to the offense and I think Neb def is the perfect remedy. They are giving up 30+ to anybody with a pulse. Nebraska's biggest weakness is in pass defense and Sparty offense needn't really try to run, they can air ir out. The current Nebraska offense will be the best offense that Sparty has faced sinced Utah State, who scored 31 on them and used their tempo to create issues as well. Anytime I have the opportunity to bet a total when the week prior one of the teams was totaled (and exceeded) more than 22 points higher, I have to give it a hard look. This is is an instance where I believe that Sparty benefits from a full week of the best option at QB, has a favorable matchup for their offense for their first time since Purdue, where it was Lombardi and they had one of of their best days on offense all season. Should be a pretty open game with neither team really having anything to play for, so I don't forsesee their being the typical Dantonio conservatism. Basically just a few elements culminating together where I think the number is a bit lower than what it should be.
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You are giving Dantonio too much credit. He is a stubborn old man who wants to remain loyal to Lewerke because he saved his ass last yr after the 3-9 debacle. It may finally happen, but Lewerke has been inept for over a month and nothing has stopped the old man from playing him even though everyone else can see it.
 
CK - BOL this week. Was curious where you got those extra game numbers? Really nice value there.
 
The Five Pack said:
Have to ask, what's the thought behind your biggest favorite ever? :)
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UMass @ UGA (-44/65) Situation is top item to discern. Umass went to Miss St last year and was competitive but I just don't know about this one. Good offenses score 50+ on Umass. With the understanding that UGA is likely going to play backups early, I see even that as a major mismatch, esp with Justin Fields (he is a backup like Tua was last year, for context, he will be first round pick) likely getting extended time. UMass OL is amongst worst in nation and their rush defense is top 10 worst, as well. Basically, UMass will be obliterated in the trenches. Dawgs in nasty sammich between Auburn, GT, Bama while Umass season is over, no post-season for them. UMass likely empties the tank but this just too many negatives for them in too many areas. I have never played a favorite this big in my career but I'm considering it. 56-7 Dawgs.
 
CrimsonK said:
Yep. Usually Monday morning 5d will have the crossover sides and totals.
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Interesting as I thought that was the case, yet my DB doesn't reflect those as the openers for 5D. A little fuckery with their release to DB apparently. Maybe those openers on DB only show the numbers when they up the limits. I.e. line history from 5D on Citadel/Alabama.

1542322168962.png
 
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Timh said:
Interesting as I thought that was the case, yet my DB doesn't reflect those as the openers for 5D. A little fuckery with their release to DB apparently. Maybe those openers on DB only show the numbers when they up the limits. I.e. line history from 5D on Citadel/Alabama.

View attachment 35914
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I’ve found that none of the sites properly track 5D open on anything they actually originate. Likely won’t when 5d originates bowl sides (as BOL does most regular season weeks) if they do that again this year as they did last year.
 
I don't know how you feel about TTs, but UGA should be around 27.5 1H. That over would virtually be a lock. Smart should approach this week much like Saban. Get the starters some reps and begin to pull them. With Fields, he should be hungry enough to put up a few too.

I dont get TTs or qtrs on cross-overs, but I would assume BAMA 1 qtr or Citadel TT under 1H, maybe game, would be worth a look too.

Not that you need the advice, but can't say I have ever seen these type plays on your posted plays. Keep killing it CK.
 
Memphis/SMU - Will there be a D/ST score? NO -110 (1 unit)

I don't play these props all that often but I have a hard time believing this is a coin flip in any game. Seems like a mistake to me.
 
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