NCAAF Week 11

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 1: 27-13 (+28.60 units)
Week 2: 37-16 (+25.30 units)
Week 3: 24-14 (+10.70 units)
Week 4: 23-22 (-10.40 units)
Week 5: 21-18 (+6.00 units)
Week 6: 22-7 (+21.84 units)
Week 7: 21-15 (+8.65 units)
Week 8: 19-19 (-1.82 units)
Week 9: 22-15 (+8.55 units)
Week 10: 20-10 (+9.83 units)
Overall: 236-149 (+107.25 units)

GOY (Games played in futures market)

NC State -5 v Wake -120 (1 unit)
Fresno State +14 @ Boise State -110 (2 units)
Mississippi State +19.5 @ Bama -120 (1 unit)
 
Be interesting to see if that 19.5 has value given how dominant Alabama has been.
 
askias said:
Be interesting to see if that 19.5 has value given how dominant Alabama has been.
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I doubt it. I anticipate it opens north of 21 but south of 25. I bet the game anticipating Miss St was a top 10 team but they aren’t. They may have a top 10 defense and the offense is coming around but it’s gonna be a coin flip at best at 19.5.
 
Gotta Eat said:
i saw a 26 for just a quick second
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That makes sense, as I was putting in my plays on my cell and had my laptop open as well but it lags by about 30 seconds, so I probably saw it late as I was down the screen on my phone looking at other opens.
 
Kentucky -2.5 @ Tennessee -115 (1 unit)
Georgia Tech -2 v Miami -110 (1 unit)
Cincinnati -7 v USF -105 (1.5 units)
Vanderbilt +15.5 @ Missouri -105 (1 unit)
South Carolina +8 @ Florida -110 (1 unit)
Arkansas +17 v LSU -110 (1 unit)
Ohio State -3 @ Michigan State -108 (1 unit)
 
I’m surprised Bama game is that high. I tried to take 27 on BOL but it moved too fast and I decided wait. I’ll be curious to see the total.
 
Was going to ask your thoughts on UK/UT but forgot you go over every SEC game on Twitter so I’ll wait. Thanks as always, CK.
 
CrimsonK said:
Kentucky -2.5 @ Tennessee -115 (1 unit)
Georgia Tech -2 v Miami -110 (1 unit)
Cincinnati -7 v USF -105 (1.5 units)
Vanderbilt +15.5 @ Missouri -105 (1 unit)
South Carolina +8 @ Florida -110 (1 unit)
Arkansas +17 v LSU -110 (1 unit)
Ohio State -3 @ Michigan State -108 (1 unit)
Click to expand...

Wow! Except for the Ohio State game, I circled the exact same games as you, with the same sides and all. Uncanny! I hope that doesn't sink your card. Haha!
 
Are there any alerts by BOL, when they release there openers on Sunday? Or any given timeframe. Curious how you typically wait for openers to come out CK? Thanks!
 
Kent State/Buffalo Under 56.5/57 -110 (3.5 units)
Louisville/Syracuse Over 67.5 -110 (1 unit)
Temple/Houston Over 68.5 -111 (1 unit)
Michigan/Rutgers Under 53 -110 (1 unit)
Clemson/BC Under 61 -110 (1 unit)
Ole Miss/Texas AM Over 62 -112 (1.5 units)
BYU/UMass Over 55 -110 (2 units)
Troy/Georgia Southern Under 52 -110 (1 unit)
ECU/Tulane Over 55 -110 (1 unit)
Alabama/Miss St Under 54.5 -110 (1.5 units)
UCLA/Arizona State Over 55.5 -110 (1.5 units)

Another light week. Have one other total I want to bet but gonna wait on a number.
 
Ryno14 said:
Was going to ask your thoughts on UK/UT but forgot you go over every SEC game on Twitter so I’ll wait. Thanks as always, CK.
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Will share them prob Wednesday on twitter. It's pretty straightforward for me though. If UK can get off the mat after losing that game and being emotionally drained for B2B weeks, Tenn has very little chance to stay within 3. They just won't be able to move the ball. 11 rush for zero yards in a half of football against Charlotte aint gonna get it done against UK front.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
I'm very curious what the total on the Kentucky/Tennessee game will be. Could be sub-30.
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I will be taking look at UT team total under. Implied right now is around 23 - 19.5. If I could get UT at 20+, I'd go under there, just don't see how they do it without another ST or def score like they had last week to get 14, against Charlotte...
 
Bossman71 said:
Are there any alerts by BOL, when they release there openers on Sunday? Or any given timeframe. Curious how you typically wait for openers to come out CK? Thanks!
Click to expand...
Nope, there are no alerts. I am just ready to roll mid-late afternoon on Sundays and keep the screen up and my books open.
 
Re: Spater
Kent State/Buffalo Under 56.5/57 -110 (3.5 units)

Amazing line on Buffalo. I see 42.5 now. Keep up the good work!

~I'm not normally a steam chaser. I took U56.5 for 1u on BOL due to the weather (30-40 MPH wind and moisture tomorrow night). Saw the market steam it down on BOL a score and decided if BM opened high I would give it a good pop. They opened 57 and now it's 41.5. Gotta say, this is prob the most value I've ever had on a game at this point, certainly the greatest combo of fastest and largest. Funny because I spent very little time on the game and sometime I spend hours on a game and dont get best of number. Funny business, this is.
 
I tried to get that number but missed it just to have it. Great get. (re: Buffalo game).
 
CrimsonK said:
Re: Spater
Kent State/Buffalo Under 56.5/57 -110 (3.5 units)

Amazing line on Buffalo. I see 42.5 now. Keep up the good work!

~I'm not normally a steam chaser. I took U56.5 for 1u on BOL due to the weather (30-40 MPH wind and moisture tomorrow night). Saw the market steam it down on BOL a score and decided if BM opened high I would give it a good pop. They opened 57 and now it's 41.5. Gotta say, this is prob the most value I've ever had on a game at this point, certainly the greatest combo of fastest and largest. Funny because I spent very little time on the game and sometime I spend hours on a game and dont get best of number. Funny business, this is.
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Will u try and middle the buffalo game? Gl
 
number2 said:
Will u try and middle the buffalo game? Gl
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I saw it went to 39.5 briefly but I wasn't watching it. I havent really thought about it. If I would have seen it get that low, I think I may have. Chances are I prob won't but I'll keep an eye on weather as we get closer. If it's wet and 30-40 winds, I think I'll just sit tight and hope the conditions don't lead to too much nonsense. Kent State is certainly bad enough to turn this into a ridiculous comedy of errors that equals scoring.
 
Liberty/Virginia Over 57.5 -108 (1 unit)

This was the other total I wanted. Seems to be moving north so I'll go ahead and take it now
 
CrimsonK said:
I saw it went to 39.5 briefly but I wasn't watching it. I havent really thought about it. If I would have seen it get that low, I think I may have. Chances are I prob won't but I'll keep an eye on weather as we get closer. If it's wet and 30-40 winds, I think I'll just sit tight and hope the conditions don't lead to too much nonsense. Kent State is certainly bad enough to turn this into a ridiculous comedy of errors that equals scoring.
Click to expand...

When u cap the winds, wouldn’t it lead to short field positions or chances of turnovers due to the punting ? Thanks.
 
number2 said:
When u cap the winds, wouldn’t it lead to short field positions or chances of turnovers due to the punting ? Thanks.
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It can. More often than not though it results in a short game with a constant running clock because passing is a waste of time. I don't have the data handy but I know someone at the Action Network has tracked wind impact on totals and wind games with 20+ MPH winds stay under at a very high rate.
 
Zeke said:
I thought this was it. How in god's name do you find the time?
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If life is a web browser on a computer, just choose to live with 15 tabs open and continuously invest in having the fastest processor possible. I do this to pay for a fun vacation or two every year and also justify being able to go to my favorite steakhouse and pay $100 for a steak and potatoes whenever I get the itch!
 
Quick weather update in buffalo, rain is done, it is quite windy and will be during gametime but the horizontal rain is gone. I don't know if the opener of 57 was a good number or not but the wind outside right now is definitely not 15 pts of wind IMO
 
lumpy19 said:
Quick weather update in buffalo, rain is done, it is quite windy and will be during gametime but the horizontal rain is gone. I don't know if the opener of 57 was a good number or not but the wind outside right now is definitely not 15 pts of wind IMO
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Thanks. If you are willing and able would be great to get another update around 530 Eastern
 
Kent State/Buffalo Over 20.5 2H +105 (2.5 units)

Wouldn’t necessarily recommend as an independent. Really just wanting to reduce my position here.
 
number2 said:
When u cap the winds, wouldn’t it lead to short field positions or chances of turnovers due to the punting ? Thanks.
Click to expand...

Imo rain/snow often cause points in numerous ways but wind negatively impacts scoring at a very high clip.
 
FSU/Notre Dame Under 55 -110 (1 unit)

ND QB Ian Book ruled out. Currently 54/54.5 and like it there as well.
 
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