NCAAF Week 10

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 1: 27-13 (+28.60 units)
Week 2: 37-16 (+25.30 units)
Week 3: 24-14 (+10.70 units)
Week 4: 23-22 (-10.40 units)
Week 5: 21-18 (+6.00 units)
Week 6: 22-7 (+21.84 units)
Week 7: 21-15 (+8.65 units)
Week 8: 19-19 (-1.82 units)
Week 9: 22-15 (+8.55 units)
Overall: 216-139 (+97.42 units)

GOY (Games played in futures market)
Texas PICK v. WVU -110 (1 unit)
Texas A&M +11.5 @ Auburn -110 (1 unit)
Kentucky +8.5 v Georgia -110 (1.5 units)
 
ECU +17.5 v Memphis -110 (2.5 units)
Air Force +7.5 @ Army -105 (1 unit)
Cal +13 @ Washington State -110 (1 unit)
Utah -6 @ Arizona State -110 (1 unit)
 
Bama -14 looks sexy to me
I’m very unlikely to be involved. I was just talking with my dad about game though and I was saying that I just don’t see how LSU survives a fast Bama start here. They are the only team on Bama’s schedule that has the individual talent in secondary to match Bama man for man so I suppose they could frustrate things early and could attempt to remain balanced on offense but if it gets outta balance, hard to see how LSU survives if they have to start chucking it around the yard.
 
Week 1: 27-13 (+28.60 units)
Week 2: 37-16 (+25.30 units)
Week 3: 24-14 (+10.70 units)
Week 4: 23-22 (-10.40 units)
Week 5: 21-18 (+6.00 units)
Week 6: 22-7 (+21.84 units)
Week 7: 21-15 (+8.65 units)
Week 8: 19-19 (-1.82 units)
Week 9: 22-15 (+8.55 units)
Overall: 216-139 (+97.42 units)

GOY (Games played in futures market)
Texas PICK v. WVU -110 (1 unit)
Texas A&M +11.5 @ Auburn -110 (1 unit)
Kentucky +8.5 v Georgia -110 (1.5 units)

Great job all season long, man. Love your thread and just seeing your discipline on display week in and week out. Amazing to watch and wish I had the time and/or patience to tackle this racket like you do. Appreciate your hard work and dedication to this site and your followers. Big thumbs up.

Now...on to the important stuff. I dont know how long ago you bet these GOY, but how do you feel about your current positions. Obviously, some line value with texas and a&m, but how do you feel about your positions macroscopically? Last week, looking ahead to this week’s schedule, I thought this would be a good spot for texas (and maybe it still is), but I didnt like what I saw out of them last week against an average (if that) ok st team. Ehlinger looked terrible in the 1H, and dont know if he got shot up at halftime or what, but they made it a game at least. Also, I expected a&m to handle miss st in starkvegas, but the never got off the bus from the hotel. And auburn looked a little resurrected in their last game (albeit against ole miss swiss cheese defense). UGA/UK should be a slobber knocker in the trenches. Was happy to see UK pull it out last week, holding a Wildcats ML ticket but they didnt look great. Anyway, was just curious to know your thoughts. Sorry for rambling and clogging the thread. Thanks in advance.
 
Great job all season long, man. Love your thread and just seeing your discipline on display week in and week out. Amazing to watch and wish I had the time and/or patience to tackle this racket like you do. Appreciate your hard work and dedication to this site and your followers. Big thumbs up.

Now...on to the important stuff. I dont know how long ago you bet these GOY, but how do you feel about your current positions. Obviously, some line value with texas and a&m, but how do you feel about your positions macroscopically? Last week, looking ahead to this week’s schedule, I thought this would be a good spot for texas (and maybe it still is), but I didnt like what I saw out of them last week against an average (if that) ok st team. Ehlinger looked terrible in the 1H, and dont know if he got shot up at halftime or what, but they made it a game at least. Also, I expected a&m to handle miss st in starkvegas, but the never got off the bus from the hotel. And auburn looked a little resurrected in their last game (albeit against ole miss swiss cheese defense). UGA/UK should be a slobber knocker in the trenches. Was happy to see UK pull it out last week, holding a Wildcats ML ticket but they didnt look great. Anyway, was just curious to know your thoughts. Sorry for rambling and clogging the thread. Thanks in advance.
Thank you, appreciate the kind words.

I bet Texas about 6 weeks ago, aTm about 4 weeks ago, UK about 10 days ago.

At current, I would be most attracted to UK at 10+. I think that game got a bit inflated because of Florida's inability to get out of their own way last week. Ultimately, Florida ended up way too thin at corner and an accurate QB carved em up. What I did really like to see was the UF power run game. UGA LB play is not good and I think this is a game that UK can stay stubborn and pound them. aTm is a better football team than Auburn but it's another sorta uneasy feeling, similar to UK/Mizz last week. How did aTm close +1 last week at Miss St and now is +6 at Auburn? I understand in an exercise like this we may have to concede that last week was a poor line (I dont think it was) but this transitively indicates that Auburn is a better team than aTm and Miss St, neither of which I can agree with. As far as individual matchup, the game comes down to do you trust Stidham to throw well enough to win by a TD plus? I don't. I don't have data to support it either way but I generally don't like backing the ranked road dog traveling to unranked home favorite. As far as Texas goes, I generally only care about them when they are an underdog or perhaps not a dog by the spread, but a psychological dog, which they will be this weekend. No coach gets more out of his team than Herman in these spots. Matchup isn't great for them, I havent really done a deep dive from the Ok State game but sounds like there were quite a lot of odd cicrumstances that led to them giving up a lot of points early on and seems they couldn't fully recover. I still believe if WVU put together a full four quarters they are going to be a very dangerous team. I've never seen em do it though and I do think it's a pretty big coaching edge for UT. I prefer Texas against teams that don't have great QBs because they generally force them to win game and I do think Grier can. Good news, I think Orlando can look at the Iowa State tape and put together a comparable plan. I bet games based on variance between my forecasted side/total and what games open. UK would qualify, aTm would qualify, and I haven't fully done Texas but they would be marginal, prob. I am kinda treating this week as a breather of sorts before the home stretch. I'm busy with real life stuff, kinda feeling burned out, and will need to just look for a few targeted totals but it's going to be a low volume week,
 
Understood...thanks for the resonse. I was kind of feeling the same way about texas. Never like to see the dreaded -2.5 for home team. Especially not a highly public team laying less than a fg at home. Seems like the bad guys are begging for texas money, and I dont think I will be biting...
 
Syracuse -4 @ Wake -112 (1 unit)


Kent State/Bowling Green Over 64 -110 (1 unit)
Temple/UCF Over 54.5 -110 (2 units)
Pitt/Virginia Under 52 -110 (1 unit)
GT/UNC Over 59.5 -110 (1 unit)
Missouri/Florida Under 60.5 -110 (1 unit)
BC/VT Over 57.5 -110 (1 unit)
Notre Dame/NW Over 51.5 -110 (1 unit)
Minnesota/Illinois Over 61 -110 (1 unit)
Air Force/Army Under 53 -110 (2.5 units)
BYU/Boise State Over 54 -108 (1.5 units)
Cal/Washington State Under 55.5 -110 (1 unit)
Utah/ASU Over 52 -110 (1 unit)
Charlotte/Tennessee Under 52.5 -110 (1 unit)
La Tech/Miss St Over 41.5 -110 (2 units)
UConn/Tulsa Over 55.5 -110 (1 unit)
Louisville/Clemson Over 59 -110 (1 unit)
FAU/FIU Under 61 -110 (1 unit)
 
Oh Lord Mizzou Fla touched 60. Good get there.
I don’t like it as much as I would have a few days ago. Florida is pretty thin at CB and that (and Franks) was their undoing against UGA. Marco Wilson was injured against Kentucky which was huge blow and CJ Henderson left GA game early. IMO, that was the best underclassmen DB tandem in CFB. Neither on field last week and a future NFL QB carved them up. Henderson status still in jeopardy this week and I am really hoping he can go. Had to play at a number in 60s but I saw enough last week that has allowed seeds of doubt about UF defense to take hold.

From Gator Country

Henderson was the victim of friendly fire against Georgia. Linebacker David Reese collided with Henderson as both were trying to make a tackle. Henderson left the game and wouldn’t return.

“Thankfully no structural damage, just a bruise,” head coach Dan Mullen said on Monday updating Henderson’s status. “So we’re expecting him to be ready to go for Saturday. I think that was the only injury update I have from the game.”

Henderson was part of one of the best cornerback duos in the SEC with fellow sophomore Marco Wilson. When Wilson went down with an ACL injury against Kentucky it thrust Henderson into a more prominent role. He’s handled that well with quarterbacks having a rating of just 22.1 when targeting the receiver covered by Henderson.

Wilson’s injury made Florida’s secondary so thin that they moved receiver Dre Massey over to defense. Henderson’s injury last Saturday exposed that lack of depth even more. Freshman Trey Dean has taken on a bigger role in Wilson’s absence. The true freshman from Georgia has played well and on Monday Mullen says he doesn’t consider Dean a freshman any longer.

The loss of Henderson early to Georgia did have consequences. It force Dean and C.J. McWilliams to play more snaps than they are accustomed to and McWilliams was picked on early when he got into the game, giving up Georgia’s first touchdown.

“It didn’t help,” Mullen said of losing Henderson against Georgia. “I mean, right there you lose probably your best defensive player. When you’ve already lost your second-best defensive player of the year, or first or second, anytime you look at a spot that is really not deep but has some of your best players, and then you don’t have both of them play in a game, and they did a good job of taking advantage of that. That’s how they were able to move the ball.”

With McWilliams struggling on the field many questioned where sophomore Brian Edwards was. Edwards has played in six games this season, missing the season opener and a the Vanderbilt game, but recently he’s mainly played on special teams. Mullen says that isn’t due to injury but rather to how each player performs during practice leading up to Saturday.
 
As far as Texas goes, I generally only care about them when they are an underdog or perhaps not a dog by the spread, but a psychological dog, which they will be this weekend. No coach gets more out of his team than Herman in these spots. Matchup isn't great for them, I havent really done a deep dive from the Ok State game but sounds like there were quite a lot of odd cicrumstances that led to them giving up a lot of points early on and seems they couldn't fully recover. I still believe if WVU put together a full four quarters they are going to be a very dangerous team. I've never seen em do it though and I do think it's a pretty big coaching edge for UT. I prefer Texas against teams that don't have great QBs because they generally force them to win game and I do think Grier can.

Two starting DBs sat for a quarter in Stillwater and Gundy went right after them, including a march right down the field after taking the kick to start the game. (Weird that Herman won the toss and decided to kick, he could have at least bought himself a little time w/ the suspensions.) Orlando's defenses continue to struggle with defending dual threat QBs. There was some abysmal defending of the zone read Saturday night, just abysmal. Grier is just as mobile as Cornelius so teams will continue attacking this element of Texas until it's fixed. In general terms, our defense just seems to lose a lot of discipline when facing (even somewhat) mobile QBs. I think WVU will put up a good deal of points this weekend, and think Texas will as well. Feels like it will take upper 30s to win it.
 
Two starting DBs sat for a quarter in Stillwater and Gundy went right after them, including a march right down the field after taking the kick to start the game. (Weird that Herman won the toss and decided to kick, he could have at least bought himself a little time w/ the suspensions.) Orlando's defenses continue to struggle with defending dual threat QBs. There was some abysmal defending of the zone read Saturday night, just abysmal. Grier is just as mobile as Cornelius so teams will continue attacking this element of Texas until it's fixed. In general terms, our defense just seems to lose a lot of discipline when facing (even somewhat) mobile QBs. I think WVU will put up a good deal of points this weekend, and think Texas will as well. Feels like it will take upper 30s to win it.
Thanks, Frank. Noticed tha about dual threats as well. I personally wouldn’t put corn dog or Grier in that category but I do think both have the ability to extend plays with their legs and just that alone with some read plays seems to be effective. Seems it’s correctable though, I do like Texas’ aggression in how they attack the mesh point. My hypothesis is that they generally have one guy that loses discipline of his assignment and then a bust ensues. That’s generally the case but imagine that’s very likely the common cause with UT because there are times when they are excellent against that play as well.
 
Thanks, Frank. Noticed tha about dual threats as well. I personally wouldn’t put corn dog or Grier in that category but I do think both have the ability to extend plays with their legs and just that alone with some read plays seems to be effective. Seems it’s correctable though, I do like Texas’ aggression in how they attack the mesh point. My hypothesis is that they generally have one guy that loses discipline of his assignment and then a bust ensues. That’s generally the case but imagine that’s very likely the common cause with UT because there are times when they are excellent against that play as well.

Good points. And "dual threat" is being a bit liberal when discussing said QBs.
 
How much does it change your opinion on Temple if Milton plays? Gotta assume he would be at least worth a couple points in the spread?
 
Duke/Miami Under 51 -108 (1 unit)

Hoping I timed it right. Been hoping for 52 all week but think it's more likely to dip than hop.
 
I’ve assumed Milton the whole time. If he doesn’t play I would favor Temple and play them ML.

Apparently word is he's playing. Line is up to 13 now at my book. Hoping to see it climb to 14 before kickoff.
 
Apparently word is he's playing. Line is up to 13 now at my book. Hoping to see it climb to 14 before kickoff.
13 seems to be where it meets resitance quickly. I'm going to be monitoring until right up to game time in hopes once he's official the line jumps and I can get an even better number. I think Temple can win this game, go back and look at last year's game and it surely wouldn't have been a blowout if not for the Temple turnovers.
 
13 seems to be where it meets resitance quickly. I'm going to be monitoring until right up to game time in hopes once he's official the line jumps and I can get an even better number. I think Temple can win this game, go back and look at last year's game and it surely wouldn't have been a blowout if not for the Temple turnovers.

I noticed when it hit 13 earlier that it immediately seemed to get hit back down to 11.5-12 range. I took a little more Temple when it hit 13 as well.
 
I don’t play many 1h wagers but I would think Bama games have been shaded heavily as 1H favorites so I think 8+ makes sense.

Roll Tide man. Gonna be a great atmosphere and will wind up with a lot of drunk, sad LSU fans. When it comes to this line I have been pounding the Bama 1H this year, but feel the full game has more value. Will be a jacked up Kittens team to start and might be disruptive. Thinking a late 3rd early 4th pull away.
 
2nd half killed them! Any big plays?!! I got a few
There seems to be some confusion from you every week, if you scroll up a few posts, you will see the games that I’ve played and the amount that I’ve played them for. I’m not trying to be rude but I don’t think this is a particularly complex system of deciphering which games I’ve bet. Hope you have a great weekend.
 
The officiating in that UCF/Temple game felt about as shady as they come. I do my best to steer clear of that stuff...but that was a joke
Honestly, I factor that into my handicapping now. It' partly why I only went 1u on Temple instead a bit bigger. Part of that was knowing that they were gonna have to beat more than UCF but the other part was that if UCF had ability to, they were going to do their best to cover that number. I'm not a big conspiracy theorist but I have lived enough life now to know that money is power. A temple win there is a disaster for the AAC. Was a great bet that unfortunately not many people won.
 
CK Therese no confusion buddy. I totally understand, and yes I read your posts. It’s all good didn’t mean to upset ya.. thanks for all your inside information. Enjoy it. GL this week
 
Honestly, I factor that into my handicapping now. It' partly why I only went 1u on Temple instead a bit bigger. Part of that was knowing that they were gonna have to beat more than UCF but the other part was that if UCF had ability to, they were going to do their best to cover that number. I'm not a big conspiracy theorist but I have lived enough life now to know that money is power. A temple win there is a disaster for the AAC. Was a great bet that unfortunately not many people won.
Great post. In rare instances it has to be used as a small portion of the cap. :shake:
 
I'm looking at Arizona team total over 30. Any thoughts there?
I have regretted not betting Col all week. Laviska Shenault is prob the most valuable WR in CFB to their team (N'Keal Harry and Rondale Moore would be others in convo) and his status is still unknown and likely won't be verified until kick. I think if he plays and is healthy they win, but if not, could be more of a toss up. That impacts the CU offense which likely impacts defense as well, but I will say that if you look deeper into Col's game last week, they actually defended really well, they just collapsed. OSU ran an insane 106 plays but only at 3.9 YPP (5.8 is about average, FWIW), Col only allowed 5.3 YPP the two games prior to Washington and USC. I hold a very low opinion of this Arizona offense now that they have made Khalil Tate Peyton Manning and it's Peyton with a bum ankle. The thing you would have going in your favor with that bet is there is likely to be an above average amount of plays run. I personally wouldn't bet it over 30 though, I prefer the Col side if I were to get involved.
 
I have regretted not betting Col all week. Laviska Shenault is prob the most valuable WR in CFB to their team (N'Keal Harry and Rondale Moore would be others in convo) and his status is still unknown and likely won't be verified until kick. I think if he plays and is healthy they win, but if not, could be more of a toss up. That impacts the CU offense which likely impacts defense as well, but I will say that if you look deeper into Col's game last week, they actually defended really well, they just collapsed. OSU ran an insane 106 plays but only at 3.9 YPP (5.8 is about average, FWIW), Col only allowed 5.3 YPP the two games prior to Washington and USC. I hold a very low opinion of this Arizona offense now that they have made Khalil Tate Peyton Manning and it's Peyton with a bum ankle. The thing you would have going in your favor with that bet is there is likely to be an above average amount of plays run. I personally wouldn't bet it over 30 though, I prefer the Col side if I were to get involved.
Shenault is out. I'll go to bed instead of soldiering onward. GL if you play it!
 
I wont play it. It's looking the opposite to me now. Thx so much for your input Crimson. You've replaced our old friend Bloodhound for most informative. Very much appreciated
 
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