NCAAF Week 1

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 1:

Wake Forest -2.5 v Utah State -110 (1 unit)
East Carolina +21.5 @ NC State -115 (1 unit)
Ole Miss +7.5 @ Memphis -110 (1 unit)
Houston +27 @ Oklahoma -120 (1 unit)
Virginia -2.5 @ Pitt -108 (1 unit)
Virginia Tech -2.5 @ BC -108 (1 unit)

Have few others I like but still have bunch of work to do and some lines it’s worth waiting.
 
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WAIT

I aint dug in yet, but Ole Piss gonna be HOW bad this year?

I know Memphis lil bro, and plays way UP in this one, but Rebs gotta be ready for revenge huh?
 
twinkie13 said:
WAIT

I aint dug in yet, but Ole Piss gonna be HOW bad this year?

I know Memphis lil bro, and plays way UP in this one, but Rebs gotta be ready for revenge huh?
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I think they are gonna be able to trade with them. I love their new QB, he’s like a young Baker. Rich Rod system in place where QB asked to run a bunch but he’s such a good thrower I think they toss it more than RR historical average. If you and I had 9 months to watch Memphis film and we couldn’t figure out that you leave the QB alone on read plays and attack the back instead, I’d be shocked and disappointed in us. OM prob takes some time to get it rolling and won’t be at their best week 1 with two new systems and new OL, but I think Memphis losing Hendo and how he masked their deficiencies is prob the most significant RB loss in the country, along with Montgomery at ISU. Happy to take the SEC dog here with better players in a spot where they should be a interested.
 
AliShaheed said:
Any thoughts on Fresno St. +10.5 vs SC?
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Man, Fresno has a lot to replace. Key guys across all levels of defense, QB, most the OL, all the WRs. You won't find a bigger coaching mismatch all year than Tedford over Helton. I really dig the OC hire USC made and I think they could really rip on offense now that they don't have a ninny orchestrating it. If this were last year, I would been all over Fresno plus the points but I'm pretty worried about how a G5 turns all this over and bounces back. I don't think I want any involvement on the side at this point.
 
CrimsonK said:
I think they are gonna be able to trade with them. I love their new QB, he’s like a young Baker. Rich Rod system in place where QB asked to run a bunch but he’s such a good thrower I think they toss it more than RR historical average. If you and I had 9 months to watch Memphis film and we couldn’t figure out that you leave the QB alone on read plays and attack the back instead, I’d be shocked and disappointed in us. OM prob takes some time to get it rolling and won’t be at their best week 1 with two new systems and new OL, but I think Memphis losing Hendo and how he masked their deficiencies is prob the most significant RB loss in the country, along with Montgomery at ISU. Happy to take the SEC dog here with better players in a spot where they should be a interested.
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Yep. I expect this Ole Miss team to illustrate how much coaching matters. The degree to which Rich Rod and Mac are upgrades cannot be overstated. Longo and McGriff were easily the worst coordinators in the SEC, and two of the worst in the P5. Having said that the program is still trying to find its footing after NCAA sanctions (Shout out to the LSU fans here), and the talent is still below average. However, for the first time in a while there will be a full 85 on the roster. I trust RR to manage Corral and lean on the running game (Phillips and Ealy are a very good 1,2). The OL is inexperienced, but critically, they are NOT young. These guys waited their turn behind vets and NFL players. The OL isn't deep, but it's Game 1. When in doubt, I think RR will just run over Memphis and grind it out. The WRs won't be of the same quality that Ole Miss has fielded over the last 5 years or so, but there is more than enough to work with against Memphis.

The defense should actually have a pulse this year. I'm not expecting them to be great or even good by SEC standards, but there are vets on the DL and at OLB. I have less confidence in the ILB and secondary, but if you get beat by White airing it out, then you don't deserve to win. Back to coaching - Mac will have the D prepared. He isn't a miracle worker, but guys literally didn't know where to line up on D at times last year.
 
CrimsonK said:
Virginia -2.5 @ Pitt -108 (1 unit)

Virginia Tech -2.5 @ BC -108 ( 1unit)
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This was my first play of the season.
-VT off first losing season since '92
-Fuente in his fourth year
-Revenge angle-could be overused, but VT under Fuente is 22-1 when leading at half, their lone loss in that spot, last year vs BC
-Fuente 7-0 ATS in true road openers (Memphis and VT)
 
Good info, thanks.

That 22-1 figure is accurate. Fuente is 4-2 ATS in this situation (all with Memphis, of course), including 2-2 his first year there, which means he wasn't there for the come-from-ahead loss.

Fuente's teams have covered those seven true road openers by an average of 19.5 points.
 
On the other hand . . . .

Addazio is awfully good on the other side of this situation. He is 5-0 ATS facing revenge by team that lost after leading at the half, although in three of those he was not the coach in both games.
 
Grovehard said:
Yep. I expect this Ole Miss team to illustrate how much coaching matters. The degree to which Rich Rod and Mac are upgrades cannot be overstated. Longo and McGriff were easily the worst coordinators in the SEC, and two of the worst in the P5. Having said that the program is still trying to find its footing after NCAA sanctions (Shout out to the LSU fans here), and the talent is still below average. However, for the first time in a while there will be a full 85 on the roster. I trust RR to manage Corral and lean on the running game (Phillips and Ealy are a very good 1,2). The OL is inexperienced, but critically, they are NOT young. These guys waited their turn behind vets and NFL players. The OL isn't deep, but it's Game 1. When in doubt, I think RR will just run over Memphis and grind it out. The WRs won't be of the same quality that Ole Miss has fielded over the last 5 years or so, but there is more than enough to work with against Memphis.

The defense should actually have a pulse this year. I'm not expecting them to be great or even good by SEC standards, but there are vets on the DL and at OLB. I have less confidence in the ILB and secondary, but if you get beat by White airing it out, then you don't deserve to win. Back to coaching - Mac will have the D prepared. He isn't a miracle worker, but guys literally didn't know where to line up on D at times last year.
Click to expand...

Update: Ole Miss OT Alex Givens had back surgery on July 18 and is expected to be out 6 weeks. He’s an NFL guy and his back up is decidedly not. That is something to watch.
 
CrimsonK said:
Week 1:

Wake Forest -2.5 v Utah State -110 (1 unit)
East Carolina +21.5 @ NC State -115 (1 unit)
Ole Miss +7.5 @ Memphis -110 (1 unit)
Houston +27 @ Oklahoma -120 (1 unit)
Virginia -2.5 @ Pitt -108 (1 unit)
Virginia Tech -2.5 @ BC -108 (1 unit)

Have few others I like but still have bunch of work to do and some lines it’s worth waiting.
Click to expand...

What's your Twitter handle bro. And your gram account name? We want to feature you for our first ig story.
 
HUNT said:
What's your Twitter handle bro. And your gram account name? We want to feature you for our first ig story.
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@FranchiseKF on the twitter. Don't have any other social media.



Quick update: Have played others in week one but haven't posted them yet. Hopefully, we get totals soon, and I'll share he full boat.
 
HUNT said:
What's your Twitter handle bro. And your gram account name? We want to feature you for our first ig story.
Click to expand...


Alright we will feature you. Need to know wtf to do though. Not an ig guy. Let me know if you have an objection. I'm assuming the like is for ok. Actually don't need your handles. Will just use ctg name if ok?
 
CrimsonK said:
@FranchiseKF on the twitter. Don't have any other social media.



Quick update: Have played others in week one but haven't posted them yet. Hopefully, we get totals soon, and I'll share he full boat.
Click to expand...
Perfect
 
CrimsonK said:
@FranchiseKF on the twitter. Don't have any other social media.



Quick update: Have played others in week one but haven't posted them yet. Hopefully, we get totals soon, and I'll share he full boat.
Click to expand...

We will get your futures thread primarily.
 
HUNT said:
Alright we will feature you. Need to know wtf to do though. Not an ig guy. Let me know if you have an objection. I'm assuming the like is for ok. Actually don't need your handles. Will just use ctg name if ok?
Click to expand...
I don't have any objections. Just keep my SSN private! Thanks!
 
Will plan to share everything I've taken to this point this week. Will start off with two week-zero totals:

Miami/Florida Under 50.5 -110 (1 unit)
Arizona/Hawaii Over 70 -110 (1 unit)

Being week zero, I'm probably pushing my edges a little bit on both games. Not sure I'd be in a hurry to get involved if the games were week one on Saturday at 3:30, but here we are.
 
I took this one on DSI, it's starting to run away with the Bama money and under money coming but I still think at -134 it's a great bet.

Duke Team Total Under 13.5 -114 (2.5 units)
 
CrimsonK said:
I took this one on DSI, it's starting to run away with the Bama money and under money coming but I still think at -134 it's a great bet.

Duke Team Total Under 13.5 -114 (2.5 units)
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TTs are out? This is unprecedented.
 
B.A.R. said:
TTs are out? This is unprecedented.
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On DSI I bet a few. They won't be out at most screen shops for another couple weeks, prob. In general, the totals that were originated by pinny and the market dummying that happened, as a result, were absurd. Lotta horrendous things that I sure appreciated!
 
Gave you an extra 24 hours to seal your deal, lumpy.

Full accounting of my 1 unit or greater plays for week 0/1

Florida/Miami Under 50.5 -110 (1 unit)
Arizona/Hawaii Over 70 -105 (1 unit)
UCLA/Cincinnati Under 67.5/68.5 -110 (3.5 units)
Texas State/Texas AM Over 54 -110 (1.5 units)
Kent State +27 @ ASU -110 (1 unit)
Kent State/ASU Over 58.5 -119 (3.5 units)
Utah/BYU Under 49 -110 (1 unit)
Wisconsin -10 @ USF -110 (1.5 units)
USF TT Under 22.5 -106 (1.5 units)
Tulsa TT Under 12.5 -111 (1 unit)
Wake Forest -2.5 v Utah State -110 (1 unit)
Colorado State/Colorado Under 65 -110 (1.5 units)
Ohio State -27 v FAU -110 (1 unit)
South Alabama/Nebraska Over 63 -110 (1 unit)
ECU +21.5 @ NC State -115 (1.5 units)
Akron/Illinois Under 58 -110 (1 unit)
ULL/Miss St Over 51 -110 (4 units)
Ole Miss +7.5 @ Memphis (1 unit)
Ole Miss TT Over 30.5 -123 (1.5 units)
Duke/Alabama Under 60.5 -110 (1 unit)
Duke TT Under 13.5 -114 (2.5 units)
VT -2.5 @ BC -108 (1 unit)
VT/BC Over 54 -110 (1 unit)
Syracuse TT Over 41.5 -116 (2 units)
Boise State/FSU Over 53.5 -110 (1.5 units)
MTSU TT Under 10.5 -127 (1 unit)
LSU -27 v Ga Southern -110 (1 unit)
Ga Southern/LSU Under 59/60.5 -113 avg (3.5 units)
Virginia -2.5 @ Pitt -108 (1 unit)
Oregon/Auburn Under 59 -110 (1.5 units)
Louisiana Tech/Texas Under 59 -110 (1.5 units)
Fresno State/USC Over 51 -110 (1 unit)
Houston +27 @ Oklahoma -120 (1 unit)
Houston/ Oklahoma Over 76 -110 (2.5 units)
Notre Dame/Louisville Under 59 -110 (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
Gave you an extra 24 hours to seal your deal, lumpy.

Full accounting of my 1 unit or greater plays for week 0/1

Florida/Miami Under 50.5 -110 (1 unit)
Arizona/Hawaii Over 70 -105 (1 unit)
UCLA/Cincinnati Under 67.5/68.5 -110 (3.5 units)
Texas State/Texas AM Over 54 -110 (1.5 units)
Kent State +27 @ ASU -110 (1 unit)
Kent State/ASU Over 58.5 -119 (3.5 units)
Utah/BYU Under 49 -110 (1 unit)
Wisconsin -10 @ USF -110 (1.5 units)
USF TT Under 22.5 -106 (1.5 units)
Tulsa TT Under 12.5 -111 (1 unit)
Wake Forest -2.5 v Utah State -110 (1 unit)
Colorado State/Colorado Under 65 -110 (1.5 units)
Ohio State -27 v FAU -110 (1 unit)
South Alabama/Nebraska Over 63 -110 (1 unit)
ECU +21.5 @ NC State -115 (1.5 units)
Akron/Illinois Under 58 -110 (1 unit)
ULL/Miss St Over 51 -110 (4 units)
Ole Miss +7.5 @ Memphis (1 unit)
Ole Miss TT Over 30.5 -123 (1.5 units)
Duke/Alabama Under 60.5 -110 (1 unit)
Duke TT Under 13.5 -114 (2.5 units)
VT -2.5 @ BC -108 (1 unit)
VT/BC Over 54 -110 (1 unit)
Syracuse TT Over 41.5 -116 (2 units)
Boise State/FSU Over 53.5 -110 (1.5 units)
MTSU TT Under 10.5 -127 (1 unit)
LSU -27 v Ga Southern -110 (1 unit)
Ga Southern/LSU Under 59/60.5 -113 avg (3.5 units)
Virginia -2.5 @ Pitt -108 (1 unit)
Oregon/Auburn Under 59 -110 (1.5 units)
Louisiana Tech/Texas Under 59 -110 (1.5 units)
Fresno State/USC Over 51 -110 (1 unit)
Houston +27 @ Oklahoma -120 (1 unit)
Houston/ Oklahoma Over 76 -110 (2.5 units)
Notre Dame/Louisville Under 59 -110 (1 unit)
Click to expand...
Well, that escalated quickly.

GL CK.
 
CK - I know you are a busy man, but if you have a moment could you give me the cliff notes version on why you like the Kent/ASU total?
 
Timh said:
CK - I know you are a busy man, but if you have a moment could you give me the cliff notes version on why you like the Kent/ASU total?
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I'm expecting a sizable jump for the Kent State offense this year. Should be plenty of pace. ASU defense appeared to be better than they were last year, until they played some offenses with a pulse late in season. ASU will likely try to score for 4Q as well, considering they will either want to get Daniels as many reps as possible before Sparty, or they get him a bunch of quality and then they have two other QBs that they want to really rep. Either way, ASU shouldn't have an issue scoring 40's and I believe that Kent State is going to meet or exceed the 17 that they are being forecasted.
 
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