Stop being so good at what you do.
NCAAF Week 0/1
- Thread starter CrimsonK
- Start date
brewers888
Chicken Little
Stop being so good at what you do.
For some reason I have never had this problem and I can't figure out why.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
I wouldn’t self describe as being bullish on them, I’m just not in a hurry to fade them in the future markets. Defense is going to be really good, per usual. I really can behind this OL being very good as well so I don’t worry about much drop off in the running game. The big deal for me is QB with Burrow. He’s a legit NFL prospect. They haven’t had a QB like him in a decade. They still have a bunch of freak show WRs and finally a guy to get it to them. Just think one of their two missing ingredients from being a national title contender, QB, has been solved. They still have a bone head coaching them so I don’t think they will take a full step but I think his team is getting some unjustified hate.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
I’m sorry to hear that. I had another friend that just loaded up DSI as well after seeing these odds and he had a bad experience as well. I don’t know details yet. I turned down the bonus when I loaded up last year and haven’t had any issues withdrawing, aside from them taking a pretty generous cut. They post so many dumb lines, it’s worth it to me. Hope you get it sorted out.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
I had just deposited into DSI to play some prop bets only to see that they had $25 limits, lol.
I asked them to close my account and issue a refund and suprisingly they did. So that was cool of them, I guess.
I asked them to close my account and issue a refund and suprisingly they did. So that was cool of them, I guess.
touchdowncapper
Well-Known Member
I deposited 25k and they gave me some ridiculous bonuses (some portion of it was 100%). The bonuses were so good, I got scared that it was too good to be true (like 17.5k in bonuses lol). I ended up making my first bets in cash, instead of using the bonus money.. They were taking $500 on the QB props.
They then took away my bonuses, so i didn't get anything, but they continued to let me bet 1k on sides. Then they cut my limits to $100. Since they cut my limits to $100, I assumed they would give me my money back without having to meet their 1x rollover. Now they're saying I have to meet a $374,000 roll over for that 25k deposit due to my bonuses lol. I have faith we'll eventually figure this out, but what a fucking headache for me. Been live chatting them and emailing back and forth for days. Hopefully all the QB props, and sides I bet are cash money, so it will at least be worth it.
They then took away my bonuses, so i didn't get anything, but they continued to let me bet 1k on sides. Then they cut my limits to $100. Since they cut my limits to $100, I assumed they would give me my money back without having to meet their 1x rollover. Now they're saying I have to meet a $374,000 roll over for that 25k deposit due to my bonuses lol. I have faith we'll eventually figure this out, but what a fucking headache for me. Been live chatting them and emailing back and forth for days. Hopefully all the QB props, and sides I bet are cash money, so it will at least be worth it.
touchdowncapper
Well-Known Member
Thanks. Seems like they're losing a lot to me, even though Burrow should be a good one. Lots of unproven talent at every position, a major shift offensively, and a coach I'm not too high on. Defensively they're losing a lot too and have been having a number of injuries, suspensions, etc on both sides. Obviously they have tons of talent, I just don't see them putting it together with this much turnover under this head coach. Everything I've read is him pumping them up as the greatest team ever at LSU. I'm just not buying it. I'm neutral to bearish on them.
Only 25k on the first deposit? They probably immediately flagged you as recreational.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
looks like they wised up. When they first posted, they were willing to take as much as $500 per (perhaps more?) and they didn’t even move the number. Was truly one of the more bizarre and silly things I’ve witnessed.
captjohn67
Pretty much a regular
Should Tua be -530 to start the season over Hurts? I can certainly see it happening, just seems steep to me. Hope you have a great year
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
I really am not sure how I would price it. He should be the starter but I think you are capping the psychology of Nick Saban, more than anything. I’m not brave enough to do such a thing! Hope you have a great one too!
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Wake/Tulane Under 61 -110 (1 unit)
FAU/Oklahoma Over 65.5 -110 (1 unit)
Kent State/Illinois Over 50.5 -110 (2 unit)
NIU/Iowa Under 51 -110 (1 unit)
Boise State/Troy Under 52 -110 (1 unit)
MTSU/Vanderbilt Under 57.5 -110 (2 unit)
BYU/Arizona Under 62.5 -110 (1 unit)
Washington/Auburn Under 54 -110 (2.5 units)
Coastal Carolina/USCe Over 52.5 -110 (1 unit)
FAU/Oklahoma Over 65.5 -110 (1 unit)
Kent State/Illinois Over 50.5 -110 (2 unit)
NIU/Iowa Under 51 -110 (1 unit)
Boise State/Troy Under 52 -110 (1 unit)
MTSU/Vanderbilt Under 57.5 -110 (2 unit)
BYU/Arizona Under 62.5 -110 (1 unit)
Washington/Auburn Under 54 -110 (2.5 units)
Coastal Carolina/USCe Over 52.5 -110 (1 unit)
captjohn67
Pretty much a regular
I guess that's the thing for me. Sabans history has typically been to go with the veteran. Obviously Tua has the better upside but there will be growing pains. Hurts rarely turns the ball over and that's what the man loves out of the position. Just struck me as a bad number that's begging for action.
touchdowncapper
Well-Known Member
"Disclaimer: this is the first scrimmage of camp, and the only practice I've seen," former Alabama defensive back Will Lowery tweeted after the scrimmage. "But from what I watched today, I'll be shocked if Tua isn't day 1 starter, and it isn't close."
Word is that Tagovailoa threw at least three touchdowns with no interceptions while Hurts had three interceptions and didn't account for any touchdowns.
touchdowncapper
Well-Known Member
From a guy that was at the scrimmage. Not sure where to post this, but since most folks are interested in the qb position, I'll post it here....
Hey folks,
Ok I’ll make it brief.
QBs- Tua is really good, and it’s not really that close at this point. I don’t want to talk bad about Jalen but he had 3 picks and if it was a prize it would have been stopped early Tua had 4 touchdowns a great run, a sack juke miss type thing, it was borderline unbelievable. I’m not sure how Desean Watson or Cam looked when they were this age but we may have something brewing in the Legend category. I’ll go on record now and say All 1 team reps should be shifted to Tua and he should start again LV game 1.
Hey folks,
Ok I’ll make it brief.
QBs- Tua is really good, and it’s not really that close at this point. I don’t want to talk bad about Jalen but he had 3 picks and if it was a prize it would have been stopped early Tua had 4 touchdowns a great run, a sack juke miss type thing, it was borderline unbelievable. I’m not sure how Desean Watson or Cam looked when they were this age but we may have something brewing in the Legend category. I’ll go on record now and say All 1 team reps should be shifted to Tua and he should start again LV game 1.
Agree here.
Have you looked into Vols/WV at all?
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
I think WVU is going to score as many as they like. Their passing game against Vols secondary screams "mismatch". I don't trust WVU enough to lay two scores right now although I think they do win by DD. Still unclear what the Vols will be on offense, I can talk myself into their skill talent being good enough but I'm not particualrly optimtistc about the OL to begin the season.
What you think?
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
CK - Wishing you the BOL on the season (not that you need any lol...) I'm behind as usual and trying to catch up. If you have a minute, would appreciate thoughts on Aub/Wash. I noticed from last year that Wash is fairly slow tempo (64.7 ppg - Rk 119) and return their formidable running game and could get more stretch in passing game if McLatcher returns healthy. Auburn has a few question marks with running game and replacing some of their OL but should be stout on defense once again. Do you see this as more of a grind it out defensive oriented type game?
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Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Football Outsiders had a nice article on WVU. Summary, offense amazing, defense not so amazing, schedule, freaking hard
exactly.
WVU is gonna be able to name their score I feel. Vols will have a little trouble scoring but they will put some points on the board.
Jury is still out on UT O.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Hey Tim! Always great to hear from you for another season, my friend!
I don't buy Jake Browning really against top defenses and I don't know that they are really going to ask him to take too many risks. Strength of both teams is clearly their defenses, IMO. Pace should be favorable, although Auburn does like to move really fast, when the circumstances are right. Usually, they move fast after big plays and I just dont know how much of that we are going to see. I've felt since this spring thatif either team scores 20-24 points, they will win. Share the concerns with you about the Aub OL and run game early in the season. This offense thrives on big shots downfield in the passing game and Aub has the QB and an under rated WR group but Washington's secondary may be the best they see this season. What scares me is that it's indoor on a fast track with tons of great athletes and you have two coaches who will likely engineer some scores/explosive plays on some trickeration. I could see hwo this goes sideways but I think this is a nuts under, on paper. I look back to Bama/Washington in the playoff a couple years ago to a template. There were 31 points scored total and I think there took some luck for there to even be that many. Just two good defenses and two offenses that dont matchup well with said defenses.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
I appreciate a concise breakdown. This is one of them!
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Love that play.
GL
GL
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
I was at both scrimmages, and to be honest, the QB battle as it were, was over half way through last season. So there really isn't any mystery here at all. The only question is how will Saban implement the changing of the guard? It doesn't matter how much better Tua is, and Tua and Hurts are not in the same galaxy, it may not stop Saban from trotting Hurts out there for the first snap, That's what he did with Jalen Hurts and Blake Barnett. Hurts won the job, but Blake Barnett started the game as a way to appease him, and keep him from transferring. It didn't work, but that was the plan, and it was why Saban was so pissed off about the way it went down. So I share CK's concern with the Tua wager, even though it should be a complete no-brainer.
I will add that I can almost guarantee you Hurts will get some snaps versus Louisville. The question is, which ones?
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
That's why the Bama play looks appetizing. Even if they're only up 24 late in the 3rd their backup (Hurts) is plenty good and isn't going to be asked to shut it down.
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
I like Alabama as well, but I like the OVER more. However, the number just shot up 7 points to 60, so that obviously that sucked a lot of value out of the play. Still like it at 60 though.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Up 7? Holy shit.
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Based on what I've seen, I think Alabama's defense is a bit raw. I don't think we'll see the kind of stifling defense that we are accustom to seeing from Alabama. They got scorched on a regular basis in the last scrimmage. I think it'll take a few games for the defense to gel. I suspect that Petrino will find a way to score in the 20 range.
Offensively, this is the first time in the Saban era that Alabama has had a truly elite QB and, make no mistake about it, Tua is truly elite. He has future #1 overall pick written all over him. That said, in the scrimmages you could still see he is a bit raw and still has a lot to learn, but once he gets a few games under his belt, WATCH OUT!
I know people don't want to hear this but when you add Tua to an already stacked Alabama team, no one will stop them. I don't really think this will be a good thing for the college football brand but, with Tua, get ready for Alabama to make a mockery of college football for the next two seasons.
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
I like OVER the Alabama team total play the most. I just can't work that into a parlay, but will be on it.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Watched the episode on ESPN the other night that featured an interview with Tua. Seems like a really good / classy kid. Spitting image of how Mariota presents himself. Both went to St. Louis High I think.
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Up to 61 now. Was 53 when I capped it. 53 would be free money. Still think the game flirts with 70, but geez, hard to tout the OVER as my favorite play of week 1 @ 61.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Alabama TT likely to be in 42 range. I understand the optimism, and see the potential for them to have one of their better offenses with Tua but I still can't get it out of my mind that with Saban influence and a comfortable lead in the 2H that they may elect to just pound it on the ground to eat up TOP and keep the ball out of the hands of the Lou offense. Also would figure that he is going to play Hurts some, and that obviously would lead to more emphasis on rushing game.
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
And I'll take it one step farther. With the new redshirt rule, we could see a lot of roster experimentation should Alabama get up big. As long as Tua s under center, any roster experimentation on the offensive side won't likely degrade their performance much. My main concern offensively is Jalen Hurts. He's an explosive offense killer. They may score with Hurts. They just won't be OVER explosive, if ya know what I mean.
Defense is a different story. Alabama is thin on defense, so I absolutely expect roster experimentation out of necessity on that side of the ball regardless of score. I don't believe that'll we'll see the dominant Alabama defense we're accustomed to seeing early in the season. I expect that Petrino will find a way to score a few points in this one.
This is what I expect to see Saban do with the QBs, and this is pure conjecture on my part. I think Tua will start the game, and play the majority of the game. I believe Hurts will definitely play, but I think it'll be primarily situational and mop-up duty . . . at least I hope. Anything else could negatively impact the OVER.
When I capped the total, the number was 53. Now it's 61. Obviously, that tightens things up considerably. Based on today's line, the team total should line up to be something like 43/18 rather than 39/14, so the Alabama team total crossed multiple key numbers. In short, I thought I could catch the oddsmakers sleeping on this one but, alas, it's not to be. 61 is a pretty sharp number IMO. Clearly, the value has been sucked out of the play.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Hurts plays, Hurts hurts the team total.
At least when Hurts comes in the ville D should be sufficiently worn down.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Big believer in the ODU defense. Still not sold on the ODU offense, particularly the passing game. Vet OL, solid RB, think they lean on it here. Liberty likely to air it out as they did all off season but I think the ODU ground game keeps the clock churning to the degree that is agreeable to the under. Liberty's best offense player, WR Antonio Gandy-Golden was in a car wreck earlier this month and missed first two weeks of camp, played in last scrimmage but is in a custom wrist splint. Just don't think their best weapon will be 100% and that is very, very significant as he is an NFL player. From Athlon, "The Flames took a giant step backward in the second half of last season when the defensive line rotation was trimmed to six players. Liberty allowed 131.4 rushing yards in the first five games with a healthy eight-man rotation, then surrendered a whopping 303.0 yards per game on the ground in the final six weeks. That forced Liberty to go the junior college route to get bodies who can immediately contribute on the line, and Vincent Elefante, Devin Pearson and Jessie Lemonier are expected to help solidify a unit that features NFL prospect Juwan Wells at rush end." I'm banking they will be a bit better here than what they were in the latter half of 2017. I can buy the emotional bump for Liberty in the game where things get weird in the FBS opener at home but on paper I think this is a game that plays closer to high 40s or low 50s. I can buy Liberty's offense putting up big numbers at time this season, just not sure that the quality and potential of ODUs defense is being appreciated enough. I have a Liberty over shot circled in the near future so hoping this one stays low, for number of reasons.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Nothing different from me. One of the few plays that has retained its' value.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Thanks. I bet ODU, so I am behind some of what you are saying. What am I missing, that gives you great confidence in the ODU defense though? Particularly the pass. They gave up 7.5 yards per attempt last year (UTEP range) and over 250 yards passing in 7 of their games. I think they gash Liberty on the ground. Pretty much an average rush team last year but they should be improved to be better than average this year. Liberty probably is improved in rush defense because they have to be but that doesn't mean they are stopping ODU on the ground. And assuming ODU is leading in the 2h ... gonna have liberty slinging it or ODU pounding it which both likely lead to points. Obviously the injury to the receiver matters if he isn't able to catch the ball effectively or it effects him mentally.
How many plays do you think there are?
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Borrowing this from Bill C
“While the ODU offense has bounced around in the rankings through the years, the defense’s path has been one of slow improvement: 125th in Def. S&P+ in 2013, 122nd in 2014, 109th in 2015, 80th in 2016, 77th in 2017. I thought Kermit Buggs’ defense might have more improvement in it than that last year, but the streak continued.
Even minor improvement was impressive considering what was happening in the back: starting free safety Justice Davila missed the entire year (as did expected contributor Kane Miskel), starting strong safety Denzel Williams missed four games, and five other semi-regular contributors missed at least one. This was supposed to be the strength of the ODU defense, but the Monarchs fell from 42nd to 98th in Passing S&P+ despite a strong pass rush.
Still, the pass rush was awesome, and ODU was good at hemming opponents in on standard downs. They let opponents off the hook too much, and their aggression up front resulted in quite a few big run plays (91 rushes of 10-plus yards, 119th in FBS), but they were good at forcing the issue sometimes.
If the injury bug bites a bit less this time around, the secondary will have plenty of experience on which to call. Williams, Davila, and nickel back Sean Carter (3.5 tackles for loss, eight passes defensed) all return, and corners Joe Joe Headen and Jamez Brickhouse — a freshman and sophomore, respectively, in 2017 — are more experienced this time around. Cornerback depth is still a concern, but ODU has one of the deeper safety units in the conference.”
I think that captures the spirit of my optimism about improvement. I also think their DE whose name escapes me is going to really create much havoc.
I would think somewhere around 145 plays. Liberty prob more likely to throttle up, they were above average in plays run last year but also slightly more pass heavy. Perhaps the points you make will lead to more points in the 2H. I’ll hope to be able to watch some of the game live to see my hypothesis tested and then can evaluate 2H.
“While the ODU offense has bounced around in the rankings through the years, the defense’s path has been one of slow improvement: 125th in Def. S&P+ in 2013, 122nd in 2014, 109th in 2015, 80th in 2016, 77th in 2017. I thought Kermit Buggs’ defense might have more improvement in it than that last year, but the streak continued.
Even minor improvement was impressive considering what was happening in the back: starting free safety Justice Davila missed the entire year (as did expected contributor Kane Miskel), starting strong safety Denzel Williams missed four games, and five other semi-regular contributors missed at least one. This was supposed to be the strength of the ODU defense, but the Monarchs fell from 42nd to 98th in Passing S&P+ despite a strong pass rush.
Still, the pass rush was awesome, and ODU was good at hemming opponents in on standard downs. They let opponents off the hook too much, and their aggression up front resulted in quite a few big run plays (91 rushes of 10-plus yards, 119th in FBS), but they were good at forcing the issue sometimes.
If the injury bug bites a bit less this time around, the secondary will have plenty of experience on which to call. Williams, Davila, and nickel back Sean Carter (3.5 tackles for loss, eight passes defensed) all return, and corners Joe Joe Headen and Jamez Brickhouse — a freshman and sophomore, respectively, in 2017 — are more experienced this time around. Cornerback depth is still a concern, but ODU has one of the deeper safety units in the conference.”
I think that captures the spirit of my optimism about improvement. I also think their DE whose name escapes me is going to really create much havoc.
I would think somewhere around 145 plays. Liberty prob more likely to throttle up, they were above average in plays run last year but also slightly more pass heavy. Perhaps the points you make will lead to more points in the 2H. I’ll hope to be able to watch some of the game live to see my hypothesis tested and then can evaluate 2H.
Dollaz
Pretty much a regular
I agree completely here. ODU is going to rely on the running game, which is legitimately 6 deep at RB and may include a couple freshmen due to the new redshirt rules. They are going to ease the QB in here and not let him drop back 40 times per game unless they have to. Im very leery of the passing attacke bc it's an 18 year old QB with a decent, not great receiving core.
On defense, ODU's DL should completely dominate the LOS. They should really get after the QB. I don't think Liberty scores a ton early in this game; if it goes over its because Liberty falls behind and really pushes the pace on offense and you get some freak 4Q scoring.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Wake with some late injuries. Starting receiver Washington doubtful, 2 RBS including Bell out.
GL tonight
GL tonight
Dollaz
Pretty much a regular
This is good. WHile, the secondary was not great to start last year, they lost almost all of their safeties. You saw how that affected how they played (corners played more off man with lack of support behind them). Most of the guys are back and healthy. (Denzel Williams was kicked off the team)
The DL goes legitimately 9-10 deep. The star is Ximenes (PFF top 5 edge rusher), but is really boosted by Miles Fox inside. They have 3 legitimately good pass rushers returning (haven't seen the depth behind them yet, but were highly touted coming in. They have 7 senior defensive lineman in the 2 deep with a returning soph that played a ton last year (Meiser) and another redshirt soph that the staff is high on and hasn't played a ton.
They have experience at LB (redshirt SOph, rs junior, redshirt soph, redshirt sr in the 2 deep)
The secondary only lost Williams (backup) and Addison (decent corner). The starters (corners) are a redshirt soph that played most of last year and a redshirt junior that played nickel last year. The primary backup is a redshirt junior that played a lot last year.
At safetey, both starters are redshirt seniors (Davilla and Noye). The backups are a redshirt soph and a redshirt junior (Miskel, who started but got injured last year).
The nickelback is a redshirt senior that is backed up by a redshirt sophomore.
This, the real 2 deep has 11 redshirt seniors and 4 redshirt juniors. It returns a ton of experience because ofa ll the injuries last year, all of them have game experience.
I think the experienced depth of the defense may keep Liberty from scoring a ton in the 4th quarter if it is a blowout.
