NCAAF Week 0/1

[CrimsonK]

2017-2018 Overall: 301-201 (+127.66 units)

Week 0:

Week 1:

Tulane +10.5 v. Wake Forest -110 (1 unit)
Florida Atlantic +24 @ Oklahoma -110 (1 unit)
App State +28.5 @ Penn State -110 (1 unit)
North Texas -1.5 v. SMU -110 (1 unit)
UNLV +31.5 @ USC -110 (1 unit)

 

[CrimsonK]

FSU PICK v. Virginia Tech -120 (1 unit)

If you are in Vegas near South point and like it, you can get it at -110 but I've got an out where I can get down for a unit but pay a tax. FWIW, would pass at -6.5 which is where offshores have it.

 

[B.A.R.]

Yeah, that moved quick eh? Agree on at that number and pass on current. I'd guess it settles around 4 to 6 later in summer.. thoughts?

 

[Marlo]

CRIMSONGOAT!

 

[CrimsonK]

Yeah, that moved quick eh? Agree on at that number and pass on current. I'd guess it settles around 4 to 6 later in summer.. thoughts?

That seems more appropriate. Many models will like VT quite a bit heading into the year and still lotta sour grapes with FSU. I'm in on Willie T's hiring and think they have the pieces in place to really make this work on both offense and defense. Prime time night game in Tally, just not a game I think they lose. I remind myself this was the team that was pre-season #1 or #2 least season and they actually have a more talented roster this season than they did then, IMO. I look back to last game in the bowl, Ok St prob the most comparable offense to FSU in terms of how RPO-driven they are and they ways they stress you. Cowboys just killed em at 7.6 YPP (That would have ranked #2 in CFB if extrapolated across the season) and now VT loses multiple first rounders from the defense. Secondary still has quite a bit of experience which should help but this is a big ask. Anyway, I was gonna get some action on the Monday game and was fortunate to be able to take advantage of a poor number.

 

[CrimsonK]

CRIMSONGOAT!

My name is my name!

 

[Brewers888]

My goal for this season is to be more like you CrimsonK and less like Mush from a Bronx Tale.

 

[lvmike32]

CK, thanks for posting. Vowed to tail you this year unless the line difference is ridiculous. Got the following few hours after you posted via South Point or BOL;
FA +22
UNLV +28
NT -2
App St +26
Tulane +9
FSU - no play - falls into ridiculous difference category.

Not too bad. At least I hope so. thanks again and Good Skill this year.

 

[CrimsonK]

Thanks, fellas. Will likely have some GOY stuff in a week. Will be away from consistent internet for a bit so apologies so unlikely I'll be able to post right away and sorry if I don't answer a question or comment until closer to end of May.

 

[twinkie13]

Tulane thoughts?

 

[twinkie13]

Get the home-home back this year as they almost won outright( should have ) in 2016 losing 7-3.

Now at Yuleman......

 

[twinkie13]

:thumbsdown3:

 

[twinkie13]

Oops lol....phone
And I mean Tulane at home vs playin at WF then......

 

[twinkie13]

I know Shit about WF CK....but DD's I think you got the better side of the number at kick for sure

 

[CrimsonK]

I know Shit about WF CK....but DD's I think you got the better side of the number at kick for sure

Wake's starting QB now suspended for first three games as well.

 

[CrimsonK]

Week 1:

Northern Arizona/UTEP Over 51 -120 (1 unit)
Jackson State/Southern Miss Over 45/45.5/46 -120 (3 units)
Mercer +28 @ Memphis -120 (1 unit)
UT Martin/Missouri Over 53.5 -120 (1 unit)

 

[B.A.R.]

Okay, any clue why there are totals up at 5D on the random games and not a lot of the regular match ups?

 

[CrimsonK]

Okay, any clue why there are totals up at 5D on the random games and not a lot of the regular match ups?

I don’t think 5d wants to lead on week 0/1, non crossover games. They are fine taking a 100 a pop at -120 on crossovers but I don’t think they want to assume the risk to open FBS totals. Imagine that will be BOL or BM, per usual.

 

[B.A.R.]

Makes sense totally now. Cool approach for crossover players, albeit low limits.

 

[CrimsonK]

More crossovers:

SEMO/Arkansas State Over 52 -120 (1 unit)
South Carolina State/Georgia Southern Over 44 -120 (1 unit)

 

[CrimsonK]

ULM -12/13 v. SELA -120 (1.5 units)

 

[B.A.R.]

ULM -12/13 v. SELA -120 (1.5 units)

 

[CrimsonK]

Quarterback Battles - Week One QB Starter:

All 1 unit

Michigan: Shea Patterson -190
Notre Dame: Brandon Wimbush -150
LSU: Joe Burrow +130
Tennessee: Jarrett Guarantano +165
BYU: Tanner Mangum +270
Ok State: Taylor Cornelius +815
UCLA: Dorian Thompson- Robinson +815
Florida: Kyle Trask +820

 

[CrimsonK]

Not going to weight the above bets, for few reasons, but just for my own edification, Cornelius at 8/1 is amongst my fav 8/1 bets Ive ever made. Assuming he doesn't get hurt, he's the chalk to start.

 

[B.A.R.]

Shea -190 isnt even a question. That should be -450.

 

[B.A.R.]

Same with Wimbush... That should be well over 200. Good stuff bud.

 

[M.O.T]

Burrow at + anything is a steal. Where did you find those if you don’t mind me asking?

 

[CrimsonK]

Bet DSI. Bookmaker released some last year as well. They were easy money but not as wild as what we got here.

 

[B.A.R.]

Bet DSI. Bookmaker released some last year as well. They were easy money but not as wild as what we got here.

I remember last few years these moved pretty quickly as well. Good job getting right on it.

 

[twinkie13]

Burrow at + anything is a steal. Where did you find those if you don’t mind me asking?

Do tell

He will start without questiuon

How did this get plus money?

 

[TahoeLegend]

Excellent job on finding that Cornelius bet. You got a good one there. He'll start unless he's injured.

Not convinced on FSU. Taggert may surprise me, but so far he hasn't convinced he cares enough about defense to put a good one on the field. I like to watch his teams play, but I've seen some bizzare performances by his defenses, including seeing them seem to completely run out of energy in the second half and be unable to stop anyone.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

I always remember the wisdom of tahoelegend, dont bet on shitty teams, that will be a focus of mine this year.

 

[M.O.T]

Bet DSI. Bookmaker released some last year as well. They were easy money but not as wild as what we got here.

Can you confirm they’ve taken LSU off the board? It sounds like you got in at the right time.

 

[B.A.R.]

I always remember the wisdom of tahoelegend, dont bet on shitty teams, that will be a focus of mine this year.

Need a thread bump.

 

[CrimsonK]

Can you confirm they’ve taken LSU off the board? It sounds like you got in at the right time.

They pulled almost everything. They put up about half of them again yesterday and as of this morning (7/25) they pulled a bunch and have two options up:

FSU: Blackman -120, Francois +120, Hockman +820
Maryland: Hill -120, Pigrome +210, Bortenschlager +360

 

[CrimsonK]

Nevermind, if you look under the NFL Props, many are back up there. LSU is gone though. This book is a mess but I've been smashing them when they decide to open various things.

 

[booksbestfriend]

Francois at +120 would not be a bad pick.

 

[pressitup]

How can you not bet someone named Bortenschlager? Makes you want to open a grolsch and break into “roll out the barrel”

 

[pressitup]

Good work CK

 

[CrimsonK]

James Madison +14.5 @ North Carolina State -120 (1 unit)

 

[touchdowncapper]

QB lines up at BM now. I tried some more Burrow -135, -155 and Cornelius -145, -162. I grabbed them at DSI too at those those juicy numbers after you posted. Unless an injury occurs, Cornelius seems to be a lock at starting.

 

[CrimsonK]

Thanks for the heads up on BM. Looking more like Franks will be the guy for UF. Gonna grab some of him while I can still get a + price.

Quarterback Battles - Week One QB Starter:

Florida: Feleipe Franks +100 (1 unit)

That leaves me with Franks +100 and Trask +820. Just need one or both to stay healty and hope that Trask can have another good camp. Franks started with 1s today but both repped with them. Long as it isn't Emory Jones or Kadarius Toney in the wildgator, should be fine there.

 

[B.A.R.]

Keep being sexy.

 

[touchdowncapper]

Nathan Ruiz @NathanSRuiz
25m
Mike Gundy: Because of how reps are distributed in #okstate’s practices, OSU needs to commit to Cornelius. Reps for others are limited. Adjustable, but difficult to see that happening early in the season.

 

[CrimsonK]

Nathan Ruiz @NathanSRuiz
25m
Mike Gundy: Because of how reps are distributed in #okstate’s practices, OSU needs to commit to Cornelius. Reps for others are limited. Adjustable, but difficult to see that happening early in the season.

This pleases me.

 

[touchdowncapper]

I remember seeing somewhere you're bullish on LSU? Can you talk to me? I'm seeing the opposite.

 

[moultrie83]

How in the world was Cornelius +750 or whatever for odds as qb1? Just read another osu site that says he’s the starter for now. Unreal odds and thanks for the heads up to the OP.

 

[B.A.R.]

How in the world was Cornelius +750 or whatever for odds as qb1? Just read another osu site that says he’s the starter for now. Unreal odds and thanks for the heads up to the OP.

CK is the off-season capper of the year two years running. With that being said, he works very hard at it.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

CK is the off-season capper of the year two years running. With that being said, he works very hard at it.

C'mon man, he's naturally gifted

 

[touchdowncapper]

DSI cut me down to 100 limits without ever having a bet graded. Now holding my money hostage not allowing me to withdraw until I meet the rollover requirement. It's a big sum to roll over at 100 per game. Sigh.