T
The Capping Genius
Guest
After a fantastic Bowl season Im going to start here on this National Championship Game.
First of all- lets get started off on the right foot. Lets all forget about trends for this game. Lets forget that the Buckeyes are 8-0 against Oregon. None of that matters at all.
Best way to consider a winner is using stats that mean something - not everything - but enough to give some idea of who gets the cash and who wins the game.
Others here were posting assumed spreads on this game just before the lines were released. ironically they thought the line would be 3-4 points with the Ducks favored. Well no surprise, it wasn't.
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Now its 7.5. What made itthis high is two things IMO. First is that the Ducks won ny 40 points. Second thing is that more money was on Bama than OHIO State and those losers had little respect for the Buckeyes. So it was easy for the line to open at a big number and it may move a bit more in the next 10 days. We'll see.
Now - here is the logic I found. How it turns out is soon to be seen.
Buckeys and Ducks faced one good common opponent each. Michigan State. This is somewhat unusual that a pair of teams for the championship have played a common opponent that was GOOD and Ranked.
Two more things to be careful of -is how these games were won against Mich St. and how each team - Oregon and Ohio State - won their playoff game.
Mich st lost to the Ducks on long plays and three turnovers. The Spartians out played the Ducks on the field and lost. MS ran 83 plays and Ore ran 68.
Mich St. had 25 first downs and 27 points. Most in the 2nd quarter. The Ducks had 19 first downs and 46 points. The Ducks only converted 7 of 17 third downs. Sparts did the same going 6 of 16.
In spite of the turnovers for the Sparts, they managed 466 yds on offense. That is a big number considering the game was in Oregon and the Ducks held the Sparts to scoring in one quarter, except for a field goal in the 3rd.
Oregon scored in every quarter and found that Michigan couldn't cover the long pass. Marietta only threw 28 passes with 17 completions for 318 yds.
The Buckeys beat MS at Michigan, MIch won time of possession against both OSU and Ore. MS had one turnover. Buckeyes controlled the ground game by gaining 90 more yds than MS.
The Ducks played two road games against Bowlers.
Buckeyes played 4. Other away games for Ducks were on neutral sites,
In true road games Ducks won both on turnovers. Utah had 4. UCLA had 2. Ducks trailed at the half in both games. Both UTAH and UCLA had over 400o yds on offense and ULCA outgunned the Ducks by 100 yds
Because the Ducks are favored by 7 in the Championship game, they are the team with the burden.
There are two sides to the possible outcome. OSU played one team away that is better than both teams in which Oregon faced away.
And Oregon won their games largely on turnovers.
The Buckeyes had one turnover from MS but still played a top 10 ranked team in their home stadium.
I don't have a crystal ball but it seems to me that tOSU is getting too many points again. The Ducks were favored away by 9.5 at UTAH and 4 At UCLA. with a neutral site game with California by 17 and Arizona by 14. Cal managed 41 points and totaled up 560 yds!
Buckeyes will cover this and Im going to play another ML. If the Ducks don't win the turnover game they lose SU. OSU was one of the better teams that didn't turn it over much so they get the win IMO>
OSU +7.5 -130 (5 units) and ML +220 (2 units) over Oregon. Note: I may add to this if it gets to 8).
GL. Oh! and did I mention that the Buckeyes are 8-0 against Oregon.:thumbsup:
First of all- lets get started off on the right foot. Lets all forget about trends for this game. Lets forget that the Buckeyes are 8-0 against Oregon. None of that matters at all.
Best way to consider a winner is using stats that mean something - not everything - but enough to give some idea of who gets the cash and who wins the game.
Others here were posting assumed spreads on this game just before the lines were released. ironically they thought the line would be 3-4 points with the Ducks favored. Well no surprise, it wasn't.
-
Now its 7.5. What made itthis high is two things IMO. First is that the Ducks won ny 40 points. Second thing is that more money was on Bama than OHIO State and those losers had little respect for the Buckeyes. So it was easy for the line to open at a big number and it may move a bit more in the next 10 days. We'll see.
Now - here is the logic I found. How it turns out is soon to be seen.
Buckeys and Ducks faced one good common opponent each. Michigan State. This is somewhat unusual that a pair of teams for the championship have played a common opponent that was GOOD and Ranked.
Two more things to be careful of -is how these games were won against Mich St. and how each team - Oregon and Ohio State - won their playoff game.
Mich st lost to the Ducks on long plays and three turnovers. The Spartians out played the Ducks on the field and lost. MS ran 83 plays and Ore ran 68.
Mich St. had 25 first downs and 27 points. Most in the 2nd quarter. The Ducks had 19 first downs and 46 points. The Ducks only converted 7 of 17 third downs. Sparts did the same going 6 of 16.
In spite of the turnovers for the Sparts, they managed 466 yds on offense. That is a big number considering the game was in Oregon and the Ducks held the Sparts to scoring in one quarter, except for a field goal in the 3rd.
Oregon scored in every quarter and found that Michigan couldn't cover the long pass. Marietta only threw 28 passes with 17 completions for 318 yds.
The Buckeys beat MS at Michigan, MIch won time of possession against both OSU and Ore. MS had one turnover. Buckeyes controlled the ground game by gaining 90 more yds than MS.
The Ducks played two road games against Bowlers.
Buckeyes played 4. Other away games for Ducks were on neutral sites,
In true road games Ducks won both on turnovers. Utah had 4. UCLA had 2. Ducks trailed at the half in both games. Both UTAH and UCLA had over 400o yds on offense and ULCA outgunned the Ducks by 100 yds
Because the Ducks are favored by 7 in the Championship game, they are the team with the burden.
There are two sides to the possible outcome. OSU played one team away that is better than both teams in which Oregon faced away.
And Oregon won their games largely on turnovers.
The Buckeyes had one turnover from MS but still played a top 10 ranked team in their home stadium.
I don't have a crystal ball but it seems to me that tOSU is getting too many points again. The Ducks were favored away by 9.5 at UTAH and 4 At UCLA. with a neutral site game with California by 17 and Arizona by 14. Cal managed 41 points and totaled up 560 yds!
Buckeyes will cover this and Im going to play another ML. If the Ducks don't win the turnover game they lose SU. OSU was one of the better teams that didn't turn it over much so they get the win IMO>
OSU +7.5 -130 (5 units) and ML +220 (2 units) over Oregon. Note: I may add to this if it gets to 8).
GL. Oh! and did I mention that the Buckeyes are 8-0 against Oregon.:thumbsup: