NCAAF National Championship Game - Ohio State vs Oregon. JAN 12th. 2015

[The Capping Genius]

After a fantastic Bowl season Im going to start here on this National Championship Game.

First of all- lets get started off on the right foot. Lets all forget about trends for this game. Lets forget that the Buckeyes are 8-0 against Oregon. None of that matters at all.

Best way to consider a winner is using stats that mean something - not everything - but enough to give some idea of who gets the cash and who wins the game.

Others here were posting assumed spreads on this game just before the lines were released. ironically they thought the line would be 3-4 points with the Ducks favored. Well no surprise, it wasn't.
-
Now its 7.5. What made itthis high is two things IMO. First is that the Ducks won ny 40 points. Second thing is that more money was on Bama than OHIO State and those losers had little respect for the Buckeyes. So it was easy for the line to open at a big number and it may move a bit more in the next 10 days. We'll see.

Now - here is the logic I found. How it turns out is soon to be seen.

Buckeys and Ducks faced one good common opponent each. Michigan State. This is somewhat unusual that a pair of teams for the championship have played a common opponent that was GOOD and Ranked.

Two more things to be careful of -is how these games were won against Mich St. and how each team - Oregon and Ohio State - won their playoff game.

Mich st lost to the Ducks on long plays and three turnovers. The Spartians out played the Ducks on the field and lost. MS ran 83 plays and Ore ran 68.

Mich St. had 25 first downs and 27 points. Most in the 2nd quarter. The Ducks had 19 first downs and 46 points. The Ducks only converted 7 of 17 third downs. Sparts did the same going 6 of 16.

In spite of the turnovers for the Sparts, they managed 466 yds on offense. That is a big number considering the game was in Oregon and the Ducks held the Sparts to scoring in one quarter, except for a field goal in the 3rd.
Oregon scored in every quarter and found that Michigan couldn't cover the long pass. Marietta only threw 28 passes with 17 completions for 318 yds.

The Buckeys beat MS at Michigan, MIch won time of possession against both OSU and Ore. MS had one turnover. Buckeyes controlled the ground game by gaining 90 more yds than MS.

The Ducks played two road games against Bowlers.

Buckeyes played 4. Other away games for Ducks were on neutral sites,

In true road games Ducks won both on turnovers. Utah had 4. UCLA had 2. Ducks trailed at the half in both games. Both UTAH and UCLA had over 400o yds on offense and ULCA outgunned the Ducks by 100 yds

Because the Ducks are favored by 7 in the Championship game, they are the team with the burden.

There are two sides to the possible outcome. OSU played one team away that is better than both teams in which Oregon faced away.
And Oregon won their games largely on turnovers.

The Buckeyes had one turnover from MS but still played a top 10 ranked team in their home stadium.

I don't have a crystal ball but it seems to me that tOSU is getting too many points again. The Ducks were favored away by 9.5 at UTAH and 4 At UCLA. with a neutral site game with California by 17 and Arizona by 14. Cal managed 41 points and totaled up 560 yds!

Buckeyes will cover this and Im going to play another ML. If the Ducks don't win the turnover game they lose SU. OSU was one of the better teams that didn't turn it over much so they get the win IMO>

OSU +7.5 -130 (5 units) and ML +220 (2 units) over Oregon. Note: I may add to this if it gets to 8).

GL. Oh! and did I mention that the Buckeyes are 8-0 against Oregon.:thumbsup:

 

[eggman]

thanks for the write up, some great points there. I'm going to be on tOSU and the Over as well. BOL.

 

[HUNT]

When are people going to realize that's what Oregon does, causes turnovers. You mentioned it quite a few times here.

You seem to have a good read on these bucks team though gman so gl.

 

[RetroVK]

Nice break down of the common opponent. good luck

 

[phife]

Off the top of my head, going back to the start of the Chip Kelly era, whenever Oregon loses, the total stays well under.

The blueprint to beating Oregon is simple. Hold onto the ball. Run it down their throats. Control TOP. Keep Mariota and co. on the bench and don't let them get into their groove. Dictate the pace. OSU has the personnel on offense to do this.

I'm going to watch this total soar (everyone will be on the over) and take a small stab at an OSU ML parlay with the under.

 

[detroit187]

I think games back in September are completely irrelevant into the middle of January. Neither team is close to the same, hell OSU lost to Va Tech in Sept and should have lost to PSU in Oct. They would beat both by 17+ now.

I try to never run in front of the Ducks, its just a dangerous game betting against those guys, though I see how one could side with OSU in this game. Honestly, I probably wont bet it.

 

[The Capping Genius]

thanks for the write up, some great points there. I'm going to be on tOSU and the Over as well. BOL.

Could have wrote more but just wanted to show where I feel this game ends up. Eggnman you've always been a class-act.
GL

 

[The Capping Genius]

When are people going to realize that's what Oregon does, causes turnovers. You mentioned it quite a few times here.

You seem to have a good read on these bucks team though gman so gl.

They are a fortunate team and they do win. But sooner or later if thats the way they truly got to the Championship, then they will struggle when they face a team that doesn't turn it over - who can move that ball on anyone.

 

[The Capping Genius]

Nice break down of the common opponent. good luck

Thanks, Clown.

 

[The Capping Genius]

Off the top of my head, going back to the start of the Chip Kelly era, whenever Oregon loses, the total stays well under.

The blueprint to beating Oregon is simple. Hold onto the ball. Run it down their throats. Control TOP. Keep Mariota and co. on the bench and don't let them get into their groove. Dictate the pace. OSU has the personnel on offense to do this.

I'm going to watch this total soar (everyone will be on the over) and take a small stab at an OSU ML parlay with the under.

Thanks for the feedback. Best of luck on the UNDER. I would play it twice and make a play with Under and +7.5

 

[The Capping Genius]

I think games back in September are completely irrelevant into the middle of January. Neither team is close to the same, hell OSU lost to Va Tech in Sept and should have lost to PSU in Oct. They would beat both by 17+ now.

I try to never run in front of the Ducks, its just a dangerous game betting against those guys, though I see how one could side with OSU in this game. Honestly, I probably wont bet it.

Ducks need to do everything right and I don't think they are as good as Bama who failed even with two touchdowns on Buckeye turnovers. .
OSU and the points are a gift and I don't see the Ducks winning at all.

Thanks for the feedback and GL on what ever you play.

 

[twinkie13]

When are people going to realize that's what Oregon does, causes turnovers. You mentioned it quite a few times here.

You seem to have a good read on these bucks team though gman so gl.

he is Gman?!

 

[Cruse]

BOWL and NFL capping Angles.

One factor that I use that is crucial in Bowls and NFL Playoffs is points per first down. Offensive and Defensive. You will be stunned how big this is in certain games.
This is a mammoth task to go through after doing all your common capping homework.

Can you do this for this game?

 

[detroit187]

Ducks need to do everything right and I don't think they are as good as Bama who failed even with two touchdowns on Buckeye turnovers. .
OSU and the points are a gift and I don't see the Ducks winning at all.

Thanks for the feedback and GL on what ever you play.

I guess we can disagree here about Bama being better than the Ducks. I personally felt like this was Bama's worst defense in years and probably the worst qb play they have had in quite some time. Still doubt i bet the game this week, I could argue points for both, anytime personally i get in front of the Duck train I end up getting smashed one way or another. Probably the worst Duck bettor out there....Best of Luck to you too!

 

[The Capping Genius]

I guess we can disagree here about Bama being better than the Ducks. I personally felt like this was Bama's worst defense in years and probably the worst qb play they have had in quite some time. Still doubt i bet the game this week, I could argue points for both, anytime personally i get in front of the Duck train I end up getting smashed one way or another. Probably the worst Duck bettor out there....Best of Luck to you too!

Thanks for the feedback D187.

You make an interesting remark. Maybe I'm wrong about Bama being better but IMO, I think they are. The defense didn't lose that game to OSU. It was the offense that couldn't convert on third downs (2 of 13 for 15%). That is why when I wrote about Alabama losing Mettenberger from last year, the team would never win this. I mentioned that if Bama had Mettenberger I should expect the Tide to be favored, but not with the new qb.

Again now in the Championship game we have the same thing. The Buckeyes have a backup starting again
against a seasoned great QB, yet Oregon doesn't play like it away. Road games for the Ducks are revealing. They get out-gained and without turnovers they would have lost more games. The Buckeyes run the ball very well. They utilize the qb position as another running advantage when needed.
When you get to this level and one of the teams has the better defense they should not be the dog. OSU has the better defense and it will show in this one.
The Buckeyes put up 344 yards i the first half against Bama. The held them to only148 and were trailing at halftime. Thats because of the Bama qb. Take away the 2 turnovers that gave Bama 14 points and we have a much more lopsided game.

Ditto in the Fla state game. Thats why I think Oregon is going down. FSU never got going and had 5 turnovers and teams usually get killed with 5 turnovers in any league.

BOL on the game.

 

[TheGarfather]

http://youtu.be/QsBwdpb90fM

 

[RetroVK]

Oregon will be hard pressed to win since they Don't have Andrew Luck back

 

[Canes1]

Does Ohio st = Cleveland injuns?

 

[booksbestfriend]

So, ummm...Mett played for Bama. I knew he was at UGA. And when did Luck don a Duck jersey? You guys...

 

[austinhous]

Jones was on a really short leash, especially to start the game, or else I think we would have seen more turnovers from him. You could tell that he was told, not asked, to throw the ball away first and ask questions later. Also I don't think Alabama put much effort into stopping the quarterback rushing attack because they assumed that the Buckeyes wouldn't put their QB at risk due to the lack of depth at the position.

I think that this is the game that the Buckeyes' QB becomes an issue - not last game, like ESPN and all the talking heads were trying to shove down our throats all week. Honestly, I don't think they ever referred to Cardale Jones by name all week. They only referred to him as "Ohio State's third string quarterback." I think that was what made Vegas all that money on that game; they marketed the QB as a huge weakness.

This week will be different, though. Especially when you consider the domino effect that HUNT keeps talking about in here and in previous threads - how Oregon really fucks you up quick before you know it - and now they have that whole game on tape to study Cardale with. I think Ohio State's offense will be easier to stop as a result, and Oregon will have an easier time on defense than the Buckeyes will.

As for taking seven points, that's usually never a bad idea. And I think that was the reason the book had to offer such a high number to start out with. There was no way in hell they weren't going to get money on the favorite. The public loves betting Oregon for a reason and any sharps report will tell you that. Oregon's margin of victory in their wins this season was 27 ±11 points. There is a guy that makes point spreads named Sagarin, and he made this game about a pick'em spread. Can you even imagine how lopsided that would have been.

Anyway, I side with the public on this one, and I think this is the game, not last game, where Cardale will have a lot of problems with the football. That game was hard as fuck for them to win last week. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes a week later having to do it all over again.

 

[Da Dentist Nose]

:Biggest Fan 2:

 

[gps_3]

Alabama lost that game because of 3rd down, on both sides of the ball. At one point, jones had 230 passing, 180 of which was on 3rd down. On the flip side, I think kiffin got too cute and didn't run the ball enough on 2nd and 3rd and short. For all the hype of tOSU DL, Alabama's RBs averaged 8 and 5 ypc. Oregon's offense will likely neutralize the DL by getting to the outside, so it will be up to osu's back 7 to defend in the run and screen game. Mariota is a superior QB to Sims, so I expect the decision-making to be much better. I think Jones is a wild card still because of inexperience, but he's talented and they have a great run game. Should be an entertaining game.

 

[Streakin]

Kiffin is poison. It's as simple as that. Bad move bringing that guy into your locker room. Satan was doing just fine without him.

 

[gps_3]

Kiffin is poison. It's as simple as that. Bad move bringing that guy into your locker room. Satan was doing just fine without him.

Ironically, this was the best locker room we've had since 2011.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Kiffin played it so cute the last third of the game. Run sweeps with Henry you dumb son of a bitch. Instead, he runs trick plays, send Amari out late with trips to distract to run another failed passing play. Its always about him, how smart he is. He is a fucking all time douchebag.

I played Buckeyes big too. Great bowls Cap Genius.

 

[gps_3]

Though their demeanor and personalities are different, your perception of a Kiffin I think can be applied to Malzahn as well. Those guys love being seen as offensive geniuses so much, they outsmart themselves often.

 

[Streakin]

Kiffin played it so cute the last third of the game. Run sweeps with Henry you dumb son of a bitch. Instead, he runs trick plays, send Amari out late with trips to distract to run another failed passing play. Its always about him, how smart he is. He is a fucking all time douchebag.

I played Buckeyes big too. Great bowls Cap Genius.

my point exactly - didn't mean locker room drama

 

[kane]

I'm locked and loaded on the Bucks +7, Urban is the best coach in college imo, and with enough time to prepare I think he figures out a way to at least slow down the Ducks offense, there's no way to stop them, but I think OSU can slow them down a little. This isn't your typical big ten team, OSU has SEC type speed, and their offense has been great regardless of who the QB is, I think this will be a very close game, and getting a TD with a great coach and a hot team is something I can't pass up

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Glad Streakin brought it up, because I was dumbfounded watching that clever nonsense. gps, I agree with you, most coaches are very alpha with big brains and egos. Your disappointment was infinitely greater than mine. It just seemed so obvious what needed to be done. I didnt watch Finebaum breakdown. Id be interested in what he said. I deserved to lose bama 1st half ats as i was lucky as hell to win Oregon first half with inexplicable interception by Marcus and goalpost doink by Arguayo. Bama had so many chances down one score and they repeatedly played it like they were USC or something. Im confused as to what Bama wants to be on offense.

BTW, off topic, Winston is going to be a terrible pro qb, long ass wind up, long, slow moving chicken legs, (Wouldnt be surprised to see a Theisman with those legs) immaturity and doesnt strike me as particularly bright. Some overpaid clueless GM lined up to pay this future failure.

 

[gps_3]

There was a lot more going on than poor play calling. Ohio St just played better. Looked better prepared and higher energy. Saban and co have plenty to work on this offseason

 

[The Capping Genius]

Jones was on a really short leash, especially to start the game, or else I think we would have seen more turnovers from him. You could tell that he was told, not asked, to throw the ball away first and ask questions later. Also I don't think Alabama put much effort into stopping the quarterback rushing attack because they assumed that the Buckeyes wouldn't put their QB at risk due to the lack of depth at the position.

I think that this is the game that the Buckeyes' QB becomes an issue - not last game, like ESPN and all the talking heads were trying to shove down our throats all week. Honestly, I don't think they ever referred to Cardale Jones by name all week. They only referred to him as "Ohio State's third string quarterback." I think that was what made Vegas all that money on that game; they marketed the QB as a huge weakness.

This week will be different, though. Especially when you consider the domino effect that HUNT keeps talking about in here and in previous threads - how Oregon really fucks you up quick before you know it - and now they have that whole game on tape to study Cardale with. I think Ohio State's offense will be easier to stop as a result, and Oregon will have an easier time on defense than the Buckeyes will.

As for taking seven points, that's usually never a bad idea. And I think that was the reason the book had to offer such a high number to start out with. There was no way in hell they weren't going to get money on the favorite. The public loves betting Oregon for a reason and any sharps report will tell you that. Oregon's margin of victory in their wins this season was 27 ±11 points. There is a guy that makes point spreads named Sagarin, and he made this game about a pick'em spread. Can you even imagine how lopsided that would have been.

Anyway, I side with the public on this one, and I think this is the game, not last game, where Cardale will have a lot of problems with the football. That game was hard as fuck for them to win last week. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes a week later having to do it all over again.

Tell me what saggarines line was on the Buckeyes / Bama game?

I cant put everything down about this game but I am going to show one more other factor that matters to me when capping.

I mentioned about the Ducks winning games by winning the turnover battle., Now we have two teams that have an advantage in that category this season. Now lets say that we're calling them even in that category because they are both plus in to's.

Exactly what team did they face that was considered good on defense? Ducks -Arizona? Michigan State?. Buckeyes - Michigan State?, Wisconsin?
Now consider who they played in the playoffs. Oregon/FSU. tOSU / Bama
This is where capping changes the side you take, and also, since you feel the public is right and taking Oregon - I would bet that the public you are referring to has played Oregon all season and since FSU self -destructed, that pulled even more bettors to Oregon.
Of the two teams left for the championship, Ohio State was better over ALL the bowl teams that were in this playoff chase.
Against Bowlers, the Buckeyes were better on offense and defense combined. Bama was second but first on defense. Oregon was third and FSU was 4th.
The Ducks have not played one game where they lost the turnover battle. The Buckeyes have lost the edge in two games, but won them both. those were with the 2nd string qb,
IF we had to decide what team played the better teams, I would find it difficult to say that Mich State, Arizona andFSU were better than Wisconsin, Michigan State and Alabama. Add to the fact that FSU self destructed, Michigan state was at Oregon and Arizona showed they were never as good as they looked. The Buckeyes faced Bama ( almost in Alabama land), Michigan State in MS stadium and Blew away Wisky.

When facing Arizona, The Ducks the were held to 24 points in Oregon and lost. The Buckeyes were held to 21 points at home and Lost to Virgin Tech. The Buckeyes had 3 turnovers --All were interceptions by backup QB Barrett.

As far as the Buckeyes current QB Jones, being more prone to get hammered by the Ducks defense, I would say in a high percentage this would be very likely, but since the kid has come in, he survived the Wisky defense and the Alabama defense which are notibly better than anything the Ducks can put on the field.

In there Sugar bowl I said (based only on season stats) that the line should be the Buckeyes favored. But they got the +10 points.
In this game The Buckeyes should be favored by 2, but are getting +7.5.

One last thing I think will happen is the Buckeyes have enough team speed to shut down Mariota - where Bama had slow linebackers and would have a had a hard time wining if they were there instead.

Thats my take.

 

[The Capping Genius]

Just for thought.

I wonder what would've happened to Oregon if they had the five (5) turnovers instead of FSU.

And I wonder what would have happened to Alabama if they never got the turnovers they got from the Buckeyes that gave Bama 14 points and the early lead?

 

[KJ]

Oregon creates turnovers with their pace, Florida State does not, I wouldn't ponder too much on that one.

Still don't know which way I'm betting it, there are points and counterpoints for each side. GL though, you seem pretty motivated by one side of the coin.

 

[The Capping Genius]

Oregon creates turnovers with their pace, Florida State does not, I wouldn't ponder too much on that one.

Still don't know which way I'm betting it, there are points and counterpoints for each side. GL though, you seem pretty motivated by one side of the coin.

The game was close in the first half, then FSU self-destructed with 4 turnovers in the 3rd quarter and 5 overall. Jameis Winston passed for 348 yards and one touchdown for Florida State (13-1), which committed four turnovers in the third quarter and five overall. Dalvin Cook rushed for 103 yards but lost two fumbles in the third quarter and the Seminoles matched a school record for most points allowed.
I cant wait to see what Jumbo does to the Oregon defense.

 

[gps_3]

FYI sagarins line for the sugar bowl was inside a fg

 

[The Capping Genius]

FYI sagarins line for the sugar bowl was inside a fg

Thanks.

Thats interesting.

What is his line for the Championship?

 

[gps_3]

Thanks.

Thats interesting.

What is his line for the Championship?

He he doesn't post lines, that I'm aware of, but he has ratings for each team that can be used as a predictor. His number has OSU -0.4. The predictor model has Oregon by 0.4, so a pick essentially. Tcu is his #1 team

 

[gps_3]

If you're interested:

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

 

[B.A.R.]

]Oregon creates turnovers with their pace, Florida State does not, I wouldn't ponder too much on that one.[/B]

Still don't know which way I'm betting it, there are points and counterpoints for each side. GL though, you seem pretty motivated by one side of the coin.

It was a mirage....

:rofl:
FSU was the right side

 

[HUNT]

We can play this game all day Imo. Barrett was second string vs vtech. Oregon missed 3 starters on oline vs AZ.

People really need to quit with the fsu yardage. Yardage don't win football games. Points do.

 

[captjohn67]

Oregon was the only team in the nation to record a zero or positive turnover margin in every game this season, per an Athlon Sports article

 

[The Capping Genius]

Oregon was the only team in the nation to record a zero or positive turnover margin in every game this season, per an Athlon Sports article

I said that in earlier posts. Who is Athlon...

Michigan State was the best in the nation in turnover margin and was +20. One game they were negative was the Oregon game where they had 2 turnovers

 

[captjohn67]

I said that in earlier posts. Who is Athlon...

Michigan State was the best in the nation in turnover margin and was +20. One game they were negative was the Oregon game where they had 2 turnovers

i didn't see where you said that specifically, my bad. Who is Athlon?

http://athlonsports.com/

 

[takeit]

Not sure how much this will matter, but Ohio State is not limited to 20 hours of practice this week while Oregon is.

According to Brett McMurphy ofESPN.com, Ohio State will be permitted an unlimited amount of practice time this week ahead of Monday night’s matchup with Oregon. Oregon, however, will be limited to 20 practice hours, which for NCAA accounting purposes includes “[p]ractices, weightlifting and any film sessions or meetings required by coaches,” as well as the game itself counting for three hours, McMurphy adds.

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Allen Iverson prefers Oregon's approach.

 

[TheGarfather]

Not sure how much this will matter, but Ohio State is not limited to 20 hours of practice this week while Oregon is.

According to Brett McMurphy ofESPN.com, Ohio State will be permitted an unlimited amount of practice time this week ahead of Monday night’s matchup with Oregon. Oregon, however, will be limited to 20 practice hours, which for NCAA accounting purposes includes “[p]ractices, weightlifting and any film sessions or meetings required by coaches,” as well as the game itself counting for three hours, McMurphy adds.

I didn't realize that tOSU hadn't started school until I read that today. What a huge advantage for the Bucks. That is an edge that is difficult to over-state. 50% of what is tough about playing Oregon is the schematic stuff and making sure you get lined up properly on defense. 40 hrs a week of film and practice will be a huge benefit.

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Gar, I think the Ducks will prepare accordingly.

 

[TheGarfather]

I don't expect many of the Duck players to actually be going to class, but just the same they can't sit in a film room and receive instruction for what amounts to a full work week the way tOSU can.

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Who's going to turn 'em in for too much film, Adidas?

 

[TheGarfather]

Media.

I believe probation is still going strong from Willie Lyles.