NCAAF Bowls 2017/2018

Props:

Ahmad Bradshaw Under 189.5 total yards -120 (1.5 units)
Darnell Woolfolk Under 82.5 rushing yards +100 (1 unit)
 
Props:

Auden Tate Over 3 catches +110 (1 unit)
Auden Tate Over 39.5 receiving yards +100 (1 unit)

Liked this as a standalone but just saw that Murray isn't dressed out so that leaves FSU with three scholarship WR available for this game. USM pass defense will be the area they are most likely to exploit, last game on big stage before Tate (likely) heads to NFL.
 
Prop:

Ish Witter Under 97.5 rushing yards -110 (1.5 units)

Only three players this season have eclipsed this number against Horns. Add into mix that Missouri may be even more by committee tonight with Crockett being probable (first time since mid-October) and Rountree also getting touches. You just don't run on Todd Orlando's defense. The weakness of the Horns is their pass defense and I believe that will be the avenue in which they attack. Texas gives up 2.9 YPC and have held seven ENTIRE TEAMS under this number. More mouths to feed, top rush defense they will see.
 
CrimsonK said:
Prop:

Ish Witter Under 97.5 rushing yards -110 (1.5 units)

Only three players this season have eclipsed this number against Horns. Add into mix that Missouri may be even more by committee tonight with Crockett being probable (first time since mid-October) and Rountree also getting touches. You just don't run on Todd Orlando's defense. The weakness of the Horns is their pass defense and I believe that will be the avenue in which they attack. Texas gives up 2.9 YPC and have held seven ENTIRE TEAMS under this number. More mouths to feed, top rush defense they will see.
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I have this at 95.5. Do you see the 2 points making a difference? Ish has gone over 100 3 games in a row, but I see your points
 
KingKrunked said:
I have this at 95.5. Do you see the 2 points making a difference? Ish has gone over 100 3 games in a row, but I see your points
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Sorry, just saw this. Hope you went ahead with it. 15 first half carries gave me a bit of a fright but at least they figured out he is about the worst option on the entire team to be eating touches so only got two more totes in 2H. Wasn't as good a bet with Crockett actually being out but it paid in the end.
 
CrimsonK said:
Prop:

Ish Witter Under 97.5 rushing yards -110 (1.5 units)

Only three players this season have eclipsed this number against Horns. Add into mix that Missouri may be even more by committee tonight with Crockett being probable (first time since mid-October) and Rountree also getting touches. You just don't run on Todd Orlando's defense. The weakness of the Horns is their pass defense and I believe that will be the avenue in which they attack. Texas gives up 2.9 YPC and have held seven ENTIRE TEAMS under this number. More mouths to feed, top rush defense they will see.
Click to expand...

Great analysis.
 
Prop:

Tyler Carmona Over 24.5 receiving yards -110 (1 Unit)

Carmona is Navy’s leading receiver and Top target. He only gets two targets per game but averages 15.9 yards per target and 27.2 YPR. UVA HC Mendenhall has nice lineage of defending triple option. They faced GT earlier in season and while GT scored a bunch, their run game was pretty ineffective. Marshall actually threw the ball 22 times in that game. For perspective GT averages 10 pass attempts per game and never threw more than 14 times aside from UVA game. Perry is a comparable athlete to Marshall for GT, both very dynamic, but not as good a thrower. He actually has 25% target share as receiver but will be playing QB again today. Carmona 28% target share. Think he should have multi-catch game here. If he gets 3 targets, should be
 
CrimsonK said:
Prop:

Tyler Carmona Over 24.5 receiving yards -110 (1 Unit)

Carmona is Navy’s leading receiver and Top target. He only gets two targets per game but averages 15.9 yards per target and 27.2 YPR. UVA HC Mendenhall has nice lineage of defending triple option. They faced GT earlier in season and while GT scored a bunch, their run game was pretty ineffective. Marshall actually threw the ball 22 times in that game. For perspective GT averages 10 pass attempts per game and never threw more than 14 times aside from UVA game. Perry is a comparable athlete to Marshall for GT, both very dynamic, but not as good a thrower. He actually has 25% target share as receiver but will be playing QB again today. Carmona 28% target share. Think he should have multi-catch game here. If he gets 3 targets, should be
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Bet will be "No Action" - Carmona a late scratch. Thankfully. Mendenhall has pulled a Rocky Long and all of a sudden forgot how to defend option.
 
Props:

Eric Kumah Over 27.5 rec yards -110 (1 unit)
Sean Savoy Over 3.5 receptions +115 (1 unit)
Sean Savoy Over 40.5 rec yards +115 (1 unit)

Major function of Cam Phillips being out for VT. Phillips was targeted 107 times and made 71 catches. The one game where he missed (majority) was Week 6 against BC. Savoy had 12 targets, 9 grabs for 139 yards. Kumah had 5 targets, 4 catches for 53 yards. There is decent chance they trail here and throw more than normal as a result. VT gets no production from the RB ground game and that is the strength of the Ok St defense anyway. Savoy was knicked up against UVA but all reports show he is good to go and should be a candidate for double digit targets.
 
CrimsonK said:
Props:

Eric Kumah Over 27.5 rec yards -110 (1 unit)
Sean Savoy Over 3.5 receptions +115 (1 unit)
Sean Savoy Over 40.5 rec yards +115 (1 unit)

Major function of Cam Phillips being out for VT. Phillips was targeted 107 times and made 71 catches. The one game where he missed (majority) was Week 6 against BC. Savoy had 12 targets, 9 grabs for 139 yards. Kumah had 5 targets, 4 catches for 53 yards. There is decent chance they trail here and throw more than normal as a result. VT gets no production from the RB ground game and that is the strength of the Ok St defense anyway. Savoy was knicked up against UVA but all reports show he is good to go and should be a candidate for double digit targets.
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This looks very solid. thanks for sharing.
 
Just got green lighted on player props, 2nd ever cfb player prop for me. I had Sean Savoy available. Thanks and good luck!
 
Props:

Stanford/TCU Longest TD Over 46.5 yards -115 (1 unit)
Stanford QBs Over 176.5 passing yards +100 (1 unit)

Short on time. Won't be able to elaborate.
 
s--k said:
Just got green lighted on player props, 2nd ever cfb player prop for me. I had Sean Savoy available. Thanks and good luck!
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Sorry this was the maiden voyage. Don't know this to be fact but have to think he re-aggravated the aforementioned injury. I think he only played a handful of snaps after his lone target and early drop.
 
Props:

Tabari Hines Over 80.5 rec yards +130 (1 unit)
Jaylen Samuels Over 65.5 rushing+receiving yards -110 (1 unit)
 
Props:

Jaleel Scott Over 80.5 receiving yards +100 (1 unit)
Jaleel Scott Over 6 receptions -120 (1 unit)
 
lumpy19 said:
If you have time I'd like to hear your thoughts on the games tonight.

Thanks for all the bowl plays, great season.
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Appreciate the support all year!

Prefer Georgia in the first game. I tend to just trust the team that can run and play defense and they do that much better. I think Oklahoma is the worst team of the four with the best player. I didnt play anything on the game because I kinda have a recency bias/fear that he could take over and win a game like Watson showed last year. I think that Georgia could run for a massive number on their defense though. I think UGA really slows game down so while I think there could be some scoring my concern with a potential over would be not enough pace.

I've gone back and forth on the Clemson/Bama game. Think Clemson has the better defense and Bama the better offense. I trust Hurts more than Bryant. I trust Saban more than Swinney. I think the game ultimately comes down to big plays and I think I prob can trust Bama to create a few more. I didnt like anything in the game enough to play it. I considered a few props: Hurts over 12.5 completions, Ridley Over 62.5 rec yards and Renfrow over 4 catches but from a personal standpoint I prefer not to bet on Bama games.

Happy New year!
 
That's a wrap for me this season. Appreciate the kind words and conversation from everyone over the course of the year. 2018 lines are starting to pop up so time to set the gaze forward! Hope everyone has a really fantastic 2018!

Week 0: 3-0 (+6.00 units)
Week 1: 28-17 (+14.90 units)
Week 2: 24-13 (+20.15 units)
Week 3: 28-15 (+21.95 units)
Week 4: 20-11 (+14.50 units)
Week 5: 18-12 (+8.72 units)
Week 6: 20-14 (-7.75 units)
Week 7: 24-8 (+26.40 units)
Week 8: 16-17 (+1.50 units)
Week 9: 13-16 (-3.18 units)
Week 10: 16-16 (-0.95 units)
Week 11: 18-13 (+1.02 units)
Week 12: 20-15 (+5.05 units)
Week13: 16-9 (+8.10 units)
Week 14: 4-2 (+3.80 units)
Week 15: 2-0 (+3.00 units)
Bowls: 31-23 (+4.45 units)
Overall: 301-201 (+127.66 units)
 
Hey CK, congrats on a great year. I greatly appreciate your posting your selections and I try to tail all your picks. Sometimes difficult to pull the trigger as you get such good line value but I usually do unless it's moved a ton. I lose a few units more than you do due to get worst lines but it's been well worth it.

I'd like to be in even better position next season - can you tell me the books that are best for your GOY and Prop picks. I have BOL and 5Dimes and the Southpoint here in LV. Sure you have likely seen that 5D already has lines out for the Sept 1 games next year. Can you please let me know what other books you recommend for GOY and Props? Looks like you use BoDog for Props and I've heard Bovada is good for them too. Again, I greatly appreciate your skill and your willingness to post and help others out. thanks again, Mike
 
lvmike32 said:
Hey CK, congrats on a great year. I greatly appreciate your posting your selections and I try to tail all your picks. Sometimes difficult to pull the trigger as you get such good line value but I usually do unless it's moved a ton. I lose a few units more than you do due to get worst lines but it's been well worth it.

I'd like to be in even better position next season - can you tell me the books that are best for your GOY and Prop picks. I have BOL and 5Dimes and the Southpoint here in LV. Sure you have likely seen that 5D already has lines out for the Sept 1 games next year. Can you please let me know what other books you recommend for GOY and Props? Looks like you use BoDog for Props and I've heard Bovada is good for them too. Again, I greatly appreciate your skill and your willingness to post and help others out. thanks again, Mike
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Thanks, Mike.

Much of the GOY come from a combo of 5dimes/BetUSA/Sportsbook. I use those books BOL, BM, BoDog and have used heritage in the past but not recently. The props generally come from BetUSA, BOL or 5dimes.

Hope that helps!
 
TheGarfather said:
Will Alabama have a complete linebacking corps available by next week?
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Anfernee Jennings was terrific last night and he seems to be the only one listed as a potential casualty. He has a sprained knee. Would guess he's prob a no-go. The RG Lester Cotton also left game and was seen on crutches but his status wasn't updated after the game. Should be pretty healthy.
 
CrimsonK said:
Thanks, Mike.

Much of the GOY come from a combo of 5dimes/BetUSA/Sportsbook. I use those books BOL, BM, BoDog and have used heritage in the past but not recently. The props generally come from BetUSA, BOL or 5dimes.

Hope that helps!
Click to expand...

Thanks CK.
 
CK fabulous work on the season! Thanks for sharing your thoughts, wish you the best moving forward.!
 
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