NCAA Week Two

SHSUHorn

SHSUHorn

Thief
NCAA 2008 18-4 +56.40 UNITS

If any of my plays don’t hit the day I post the play because the line is different from when I hit it I’ll throw a loss on the W/L column for all the record police.

SOUTH CAROLINA –9 @ VANDERBILT (4 UNITS)

I thought Vandy would lose to Miami (Ohio) because of all the losses to graduation and the QB situation. Nickson was very impressive though running the ball. I just don’t think he will have the same kind of performance on the ground vs SC’s DL. The OL is still a work in progress having to replace 5 starters.

SC, regardless of the final score, wasn’t very impressive overall vs NC State but damn that defense was dominating. Vandy is going to have issues moving the ball on the ground and will resort back to the offense from last year. The offense that didn’t score more then 24 points then any game on its schedule except for Richmond.
 
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great start to the year, agree on the play and lol @ the record police :36_11_6:
 
Wow, some kinda week you had. I don't care about your record keeping but if you want to whack my book over the head so I can get this at -9, or hell, maybe even as a PK, that would be awesome.
 
CINCINNATI @ OKLAHOMA –20 (5 UNITS)

OU has been stung by good teams that no one is talking about too many times to look past this match-up. The only way to rattle an ultra-accurate Bradford is to get pressure on him up front. Cincy lost some pass rushing talent and may have to bring a ton of players against the best OL in football. That could spell disaster for Cincy’s defense despite the All Big East talent they have in the secondary. Both OU Wrs are SRs who have started since they were freshman and the TE Gresham has All-American type talent.
 
Great week, knucklehead, although I'm not sure about these two. Cocks D was great last week, but was that a product of that garbage O or them being efficient? We shall see.

Not sure if I like Cincy this week, but they are certainly scrappy. Wouldn't like my odds against them laying 3 TDs. This one needs to be looked at some more.
 
my lord, 10-1?

excellent week horn, you the man.
and even as good as it was, only one word sums it up:

routine.

BOL on the cocks will probably on them as well but @ -10.
 
J Galt said:
Great week, knucklehead, although I'm not sure about these two. Cocks D was great last week, but was that a product of that garbage O or them being efficient? We shall see.

Not sure if I like Cincy this week, but they are certainly scrappy. Wouldn't like my odds against them laying 3 TDs. This one needs to be looked at some more.
Click to expand...

Yeah been doing some research on Cincy and probably might downgrade it to a 3 unit play. Just not sure if the QB play is for the player or system. I was never impressed with the starting Cincy QB in the previous regime but he played well last week.
 
I got OU -20 and feel pretty solid about it. They could have hung 100 or 125 on Chattanooga so they can probably hang 45-55 on Cincy. Cincy is going to struggle against the hostile home crowd and, honestly, far superior talent.
 
:cheers:


What a beautiful start to the year horn ...... 10-2 , longhorns smash the crazy old man and FAU , TAMU gets beat by a sunbelt team ......

it's a beautiful day in the neighborhood. keep it going this week !!!
 
TEXAS TECH –9.5 @ NEVADA (4 UNITS)

Seems everyone is looking at the box score and seeing that TT gave up 24 points to a Div I-AA opponent and laughing. That improved defense is a joke right? I wouldn’t base it off this game as UEW is one of the top 5 FCS teams in the country and runs a high octane offense much like TT. UEW threw just as many passes as TT did. TT also had 18 penalties, which I’m sure Leach will remind them all week.

Nevada once again should put up nice win totals on the year but when facing the big boys Nevada is 0-6 against Hawaii, Boise State and Fresno State over the last two seasons. Nevada is still transitioning on defense going to a 4-3 this year. They are going to have to bring quick pressure to rattle Harrell, who gets rid of the ball quick. Teams are starting to more and more spin their DEs to DTs to get more pressure on the quick releasing spread offenses. Nevada is doing the opposite by going big across the DL to help stop the rushing numbers teams have been putting up on them. Probably not a good match-up vs Tech.

If they are having to bring numbers to get to Harell I think TT has a field day on offense exposing a very inexperienced secondary. This will probably be a shootout and I can see a 50s to high 20s type game.
 
AIR FORCE @ WYOMING –3 (4 UNITS)

Wyoming is better then what they showed vs Ohio and really came to life in that 4th quarter. Air Force beat one of the worst teams in Div I-AA so I wouldn’t look to hard at that box score. The fact still remains this AF team is replacing all of its playmakers on offense and has some question marks after 6 defensive losses especially at secondary.

This line was made for the week to week box score bettors, not the ones who actually take a look at the match-ups of the teams. Wyoming takes this one at home only giving 3.
 
HOUSTON @ OKLAHOMA ST. –13.5 (4 UNITS)

Houston rolled sorry Southern under new head coach Kevin Sumlin with its new Texas Tech attack. Now they have to go into Stillwater vs a team that sees the TT attack every year and have the guys to fly to the football unlike Southern.

I still think Houston will have a good year and the offense will put up huge numbers in CUSA but for it to be in sync in game 2 of the season is asking a bit much. Too many question marks at WR with Harvey and Avery leaving. Only one of the four WRs are a returning starter from last season.

OSU is flying under the radar with all the big love talk but they did hammer WSU pretty good on the road. QB Zac Robinson gets no love because of all the Big 12 QBs but he was great down the stretch for the Cowboys last year.

Robinson will be throwing behind an OL that is one of the best in the Big 12. WR Dez Bryant is going to be first round pick some day and he along with Perrish Cox form one of the best return games in the country. Both returned a punt and kickoff for TDs last week.

OSU is going to be too fast and athletic for the Cougs to handle here especially under new schemes on defense and offense for UH.
 
TEXAS –25.5 @ UTEP (7 UNITS)

Not sure I’m buying this away game line for Texas. Sure UTEP packs its stadium but like most UT games in the state of Texas, the Horns will be well represented. Then again UTEP is saying this is their biggest game in the program’s history.

I’m not sure what to make of the Buffalo game. It looked like UTEP may have prepared more for Texas then Buffalo last week losing 42-17. Buffalo did whatever it wanted on offense especially in the air. Not good news as Mccoy looked sharp in the opener and most importantly for the Longhorns the OL looks fantastic.

After having two missed tackles lead to big gains Texas with some ingame adjustments from Muschamp shut down FAU. Muschamp who is known to bring the heat on defense showed a very vanilla defense vs FAU rushing only 4 for most of the game. UTEP had issues vs Buffalo’s pass rush and I could see Muschamp turning up the heat a little to get ready for Arkansas (he almost landed their head coaching gig).

This should be another laugher.
 
CAL –13 @ WASHINGTON ST. (4 UNITS)

Washington St. probably could’ve loss by more to OSU last week. OSU offense was up and down up untill the final quarter but they kept getting bailed out by a WSU offense that couldn’t do anything. Rogers looked horrible running the new spread offense and isn’t mobile enough to open the spread up.

Cal showed last week vs MSU that even though they lost some offensive stars head coach Jeff Tedford will just plug in the next group in his system and away they go.

WSU won’t score enough on offense vs even a suspect Cal defense to keep up here.
 
RICE +3 @ MEMPHIS (3 UNITS)

The Ole Miss game was basically over at halftime exposing a horrid pass defense and a team that is going to have trouble moving the ball on offense. Memphis is going to have trouble all year long vs teams that can throw the rock. Rice isn’t going to stop anyone on defense but I love the match-up of Clement/Dillard vs the Memphis secondary.

Not a real strong play for me but when are my dogs strong plays?
 
OREGON ST. @ PSU –16.5 (4 UNITS)

This one is very simple. Huge mismatch in rush o vs rush d. OSU doesn’t have close to the rush defense it had last year as Stanford (yes Stanford) was able to run all over them. PSU with a huge mismatch on its OL is going to run all day vs this defense. The fact that OSU was sloppy with turnovers and penalties last week could make this game in even bigger blowout.

PSU returning 18 starters are going to be a sleeper in the Big 10 with Wells out for tOSU.
 
My final play (or so I say)...

Texas A&M –3 @ NEW MEXICO (3 UNITS)

I’m playing a ton of Big 12 teams this week and wanted to lay off this one but couldn’t. That loss last week was just enormous for A&M. Sherman’s isn’t exactly tearing it up on the recruiting front since he arrived and needed to show something on the field. The Sherminator failed miserably and all eyes will be on him and the team to perform this week.

I just can’t see them losing here match-ups or not.
 
SHSUHorn said:
My final play (or so I say)...

Texas A&M –3 @ NEW MEXICO (3 UNITS)

I’m playing a ton of Big 12 teams this week and wanted to lay off this one but couldn’t. That loss last week was just enormous for A&M. Sherman’s isn’t exactly tearing it up on the recruiting front since he arrived and needed to show something on the field. The Sherminator failed miserably and all eyes will be on him and the team to perform this week.

I just can’t see them losing here match-ups or not.
Click to expand...

Definitely agree with the "can't see them losing", but I honestly don't see them winning, either. TCU has a MUCH better defense than either team, so we should expect the Lobos to score some points against A&M. Reggie Arnold shredded the A&M defense.

Rodney Ferguson > Reggie Arnold

Does A&M have any confidence? I mean, their leading receiver was a back-up QB!!!! Leader in receptions was Goodson! That's a huge red flag for me.

If I touch this game, it'll be the Lobo ML.
 
Mort The Flying Cow said:
Definitely agree with the "can't see them losing", but I honestly don't see them winning, either. TCU has a MUCH better defense than either team, so we should expect the Lobos to score some points against A&M. Reggie Arnold shredded the A&M defense.

Rodney Ferguson > Reggie Arnold

Does A&M have any confidence? I mean, their leading receiver was a back-up QB!!!! Leader in receptions was Goodson! That's a huge red flag for me.

If I touch this game, it'll be the Lobo ML.
Click to expand...

Lobos QB got banged up vs TCU - left game in first half...He's cleared to play vs A&M but wont be 100%
 
Sarcastic Sword said:
Lobos QB got banged up vs TCU - left game in first half...He's cleared to play vs A&M but wont be 100%
Click to expand...


If we've learned anything from A&M's defense, it is that Porterie might be safer starting and on the field than standing in the middle of the freeway.

Opposing QBs are like kryptonite to Aggie defenders.
 
I just think A&M has to play New Mexico like it has Texas the last two years or the locals might burn down Kyle Field.
 
horn does tamu still run any option based looks or has sherman completely taken that out ? lobos struggled against read option plays all day against dalton/christian of tcu.

is the fat guy playing this week ?
 
Sherman is running a pro style offense trying to feature the hell out of Goodson. The problem is the OL is pretty awful. Bunch of guys I've never heard of and I follow recruiting pretty close in this state.

Outside of Goodson they don't have much.

I'm going to fade them quite a bit in Big 12 play as the lines won't be large enough when they play the big boys of the Big 12 including Texas.

I just think here in this spot they are going to rebound and pull out every trick they have to get the W. They have too.
 
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SHSUHorn said:
I can't believe how bad SC looks on offense. Disappointing start to the week.
Click to expand...

I dont think that the SC offense is so bad, as Vandy defense is better than most people thought they would be. Those Db's were great until the one went out.

SC will be back. :shake:
 
no spurrier cant recruit a qb at SC they all suck and TO th eball too much. Play calling too much passes too. SC not to bet on all season again
 
TroyStacks said:
no spurrier cant recruit a qb at SC they all suck and TO th eball too much. Play calling too much passes too. SC not to bet on all season again
Click to expand...

:cheers:

Looks like im not the only one that was pissed after this one and decided to get drunk as hell....I like your plan, troystacks

lets just learn our lesson- like you said smelley or beecher- it doesn't really matter. Neither are clutch QB's you want the ball in their hands with the game on the line (remmeber when it was 2nd and 10,were on their end of the field, its 24-17, we had great field position and smelley tripped over his fucking feet trying to scramble to the right and we lost 8 yards making it 3rd and very long, and at that point we knew it was over). with about 4 minutes left.

This is a fucking vandy team that hasnt even beaten a ranked team since 92.You would think that socar/spurrier would come out fired up with a solid gamepplan after the commordores ruined their season last year- guess not.

Like you said, this is a team we are better off fading then anything, SOcar is not getting my money for a long while till they fix the front 4/QB situation

OL has been AWFUL these first 2 weeks in pass protection, coupled with little success running the football, or if they have success they abandone the run and are happy with smelley/beecher incomplete passes, and two shitty QB's who are unreliable/gas cans. I want no part of either of them....Dont even get me started on speciaal teams.

Sorry horn, lost on em too man, just rantin. Lets clean up this weekend on the rest of these wagers:cheers:
 
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Horn - hate to bother you but do you have any opinion in the game tonight (Ball St/Navy)? I have a lean but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

Thanks bro!
 
Hey, Horn, I know you don't like to play totals but I'm looking at a couple of different angles on the Texas game.

What do you think about these?

Over 58
Texas over 42'
 
keep rolling - obviously another good card since most of the lines have gone in the right direction for you
 
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