NCAA Week One

SHSUHorn

SHSUHorn

Thief
Locked in on some plays and more write-ups to follow but Texas was a very easy pick here to start my betting card.

FAU @ Texas –24.5 (5 UNITS)

I understand the Owls won the Sun Belt last year and are returning 18 starters from last year but this line should still be in the 30s. The Owls couldn’t stop anyone on defense last year and have gotten creamed when they’ve faced the big boys.

Look at some of the past results the last two years…

In 2006 when they returned 15 starters:

Clemson 54 FAU 6
KSU 45 FAU 0
Okie St. 48 FAU 8
S. Carolina 45 FAU 6

Last year when they returned 16 starters:

Okie St. 42 FAU 6
Kentucky 45 FAU 17
Florida 59 FAU 20

Note the results when they played the Big 12 teams. Texas is clearly better then every team I’ve listed above except for maybe Florida’s team last year.

After Texas loss to A&M at the end of the year it may have lit a fire under Brown and he knew he needed to dump some of his coaching philosophies. That was evident in the Holiday Bowl where he opened up the depth chart and competition for the starting jobs were actually done on the field instead of handed over to less talented upperclassmen like he had done all last season and in years past.

Muschamp is now the DC and is rumored to have total autonomy. Muschamp is arguably the top DC in the country and his defenses have finished in the top 5 in five of his 6 years as a DC. The addition of Applewhite should help give them some fresh innovative ideas on offense. Mainly in moving more toward Mccoy’s strengths instead of hanging on to an offense that should only be run by a guy now wearing a Titans uniform.

I also think Texas comes out and handles FAU because of last year’s opener vs Arkie St. where Texas only won by 8. The team didn’t look focused or interested to be playing and I’m sure that game will be on the coaches minds leading up to this match-up.

Texas wins this one by 5 TDs or more.
 
Like it man. I was actually looking at that one and will likely hit it upon the release of lines from 5Dimes
 
Wake Forest –13 @ Baylor (5 UNITS)

Baylor loss all 9 games it played vs BCS opponents by 20 points or more whether the game was played on the road or at home last season.

I love the hire of Briles as the new coach but there are going to be some early growing pains learning his offense. Kevin Kolb was Briles’ QB every year but one and he knew the system well (Kolb went to HS at Stephenvile where Briles had coached previously).

The key to Briles’ offense is the QB position and right now they don’t have a starter named and have no one near the talent that Kolb was. Blake Symanski was awful last year, Kirby Freeman never impressed me at Miami especially his accuarcy, and Robert Griffin is a true frosh and known more for his track times then QB skills in HS.

The defense is an even bigger concern as Baylor gave up close to 40 ppg last year and let opponents complete nearly 65% of their passes on them. Now they face a WF team led by Riley Skinner who led the entire country in passing completion at 72.4%. Skinner was hurt last year and WF lost two of its first three games and when he returned the team won 8 of 10.

Floyd Casey Stadium has never been known to be a hostile environment for visiting team and I expect WF to win this game very comfortably.
 
SHSUHorn said:
Wake Forest –13 @ Baylor (5 UNITS)

Baylor loss all 9 games it played vs BCS opponents by 20 points or more whether the game was played on the road or at home last season.

I love the hire of Briles as the new coach but there are going to be some early growing pains learning his offense. Kevin Kolb was Briles’ QB every year but one and he knew the system well (Kolb went to HS at Stephenvile where Briles had coached previously).

The key to Briles’ offense is the QB position and right now they don’t have a starter named and have no one near the talent that Kolb was. Blake Symanski was awful last year, Kirby Freeman never impressed me at Miami especially his accuarcy, and Robert Griffin is a true frosh and known more for his track times then QB skills in HS.

The defense is an even bigger concern as Baylor gave up close to 40 ppg last year and let opponents complete nearly 65% of their passes on them. Now they face a WF team led by Riley Skinner who led the entire country in passing completion at 72.4%. Skinner was hurt last year and WF lost two of its first three games and when he returned the team won 8 of 10.

Floyd Casey Stadium has never been known to be a hostile environment for visiting team and I expect WF to win this game very comfortably.
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More plays and writeups please.......... better than crack
 
cubsker said:
didn't think wf would be quite that high.
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I really like Briles (I thought A&M should've went after him) but the fact that he still doesn't know who his QB will be going into fall practices has me believing Baylor will struggle early on especially against a Wake Forest defense that returns nearly everyone. The QB position is just very poor for Baylor and his offense won't click right away.

I saw LVSC opened it at 10.5 and I would've loved that number but still feel 2 TDs is very attainable here.
 
Will Baylor QBs throw more touchdown passes to Baylor players or Wake Forest players?

WF +150
Baylor -180

That's a sharp number right there.
 
not sure I can trust WF to lay that many on the road. I really like their defense and see them having a big year this year, but they play to their competition.
 
scdoggy, I actually do like Arkie St. 20.5 at first glance but I like a couple better plays on the board right now.
 
SMU @ Rice –3 (5 UNITS)

Linemakers must be banking on the public hyping up the June Jones hire. The fact still remains SMU has lost the 9 meetings and haven’t won at Rice in 22 years. SMU will have trouble early on switching over to Jones’ offense especially since QB Justin Willis was suspended all of the spring and hasn’t even been guaranteed his spot back.

QB Zach Rhodes was also suspended so during the spring Logan Turner was the only scholarship QB on the roster so how effective could’ve they been in practice for the other skilled positions?

RB James Mapps last year’s returning rusher outside of Willis was also suspended, as was last year’s starting SS Bryce Hudman. Looks like JJ is trying to lay down the law like he did his first year at Hawaii. So far only Willis and Rhodes have been reinstated.

A new offense, uncertainty at QB, and most importantly a very inexperienced, small, and suspect OL is going to kill SMU early on offense.

Jones’ defensive teams at Hawaii were even in winning seasons well below average and sometimes damn near awful. Should be even worse here at SMU with a defense that is switching to a 4-3. Last years starting DE is moving to MLB and they only return 5 players to their true positions off a defense that gave nearly 40 ppg.

This Rice team might end up being the best team it’s had this decade as they return 16 starters (one of my bouncers, small shout out) and 34 of 43 from last years depth chart.. The offense started clicked at the end of the season under first year coach David Bailiff. They averaged 43 ppg in their last four games and won two of those matches (Rice only had one other win all year).

Clement to Dillard is something were going to hear over and over in this game as Rice covers the 3 points.
 
Oregon St. @ Stanford +4 (3 UNITS)

My concern here for OSU early on is they beat teams last year with #1 rush defense in the country, a powerful RB, and a K who was one of the best in the country.

Now they must replace the entire front seven on defense, its 1200-yard rusher Yvenson Bernard, and Lou Groza winner Alexis Serna. The 10 starters they return is the lowest they’ve had in 8 years.

I know freshman Ryan Mccants is suppose to be the next big thing at RB for OSU but the fact still remains this will be the first time he has taken a handoff in college.

Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao were a mess at QB with an 11-21 TD/INT ratio (3 TDs were vs Idaho St.). Canfield also missed all of the spring and will have to hope Sammie Stroughter can get back to his 2006 form.

Canfield was also a statue as they ranked 102 in sacks allowed and the Beaver OL last year was pretty damn good. They now will be playing a frosh at T on Canfield’s backside.

Stanford has a great pass rush and prides itself on a defense that try’s to create havoc. The Cardinals finished 11th in the nation in sacks and fifth in tackles for losses. They return 10 of its top 11 tacklers from last year.

This is a huge advantage for Stanford in this game especially if Canfield is the QB.

With changes in the running attack and a defense that is going to have some early growing pains it will put a lot on the shoulders of the QB and I’m just not confident in either. These QBs were game managers last year and now have to be playmakers.

The entire front seven is gone that had the nation’s #4 sack unit, #6 tackles-for-loss, #1 rush defense, and #8 overall defense. I’m sure DC Mike Banker will have this defense up to shape soon but early on they will struggle with all the new faces. The interior of the line is the biggest concern of the defense as there isn’t a lot of talent, experience or depth there outside of Booth.

Stanford pulled off some PAC 10 upsets last year beating Arizona, Cal, and USC in Harbaugh’s first year. With a team returning 16 starters facing an opponent with a ton of question marks early on. OSU also has to play at Stanford Stadium in a nationally televised game

Add OSU to the list of upsets for Harbaugh.
 
USC –20.5 @ Virginia (4 UNITS)

Virginia’s 9 wins last season look great on paper but they won 5 of those games by 2 points or less. They return only 11 starters total from last year’s team and young teams usually don’t pull out as many close ball games.

Jameel Sewel is out at QB for academic reasons so sophomore Peter Lalich and his 35 career completions, steps in against probably the best defense in the country. USC returns 7 on last year’s #2 total defense and without question has the fastest back seven in the country.

With UVA having to replace its entire interior on the OL with no depth (3 freshman on the two deep), a QB making his first start with only 1 decent WR on the roster (Ogletree) I expect them to score less then 7 points in this game.

On defense the Cavs have always been stout under Groh but will face some growing pains early on. They have to replace the entire starting DL plus top reserve Jeff Fitzgerald. Like the OL the second team might end up being all freshman. Without the pressure of Chris Long and Fitzgerald (21 sacks total) the inexperienced secondary is going to get lit up by the WRs USC throws at them.

USC also has a bye week after this game to prepare for Ohio St. so there shouldn’t be any looking ahead. Whether on the road or at home USC has murdered and had some eye opening statement OOC games.

This has the making of a 35-3 type game.
 
SHSUHorn said:
Wow. Last time I do this when I'm really stoned.

No wonder the play looked so good.
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It's ok horn , its a winner anyway.

looked at this game pretty extensively and despite not having a thorough knowledge of what we get from the frogs receivers , i do have a good idea of what to expect in this game. You win.
 
I actually capped it with New Mexico in my power numbers and for some reason was thinking of Mumme and not Long during the write-up.

LOL as I was writing I started thinking I needed to add more to the play.

I agree the play is solid with TCU recent success vs New Mexico and the fact the Lobos are breaking in a ton of new starters. Its going to be a long first month untill Long gets the players going under his system on defense and offense.

TCU –6 @ New Mexico (5 UNITS)

Seems to be a favorite play on the board and I agree with everyone that TCU is the play. TCU had its worse offense in years last year. A freshman QB and injuries to its two best RBs hurt the offense last year.

Andy Dalton at QB though does look like a keeper as he improved tremendously over his first year. He has a cannon for an arm something TCU is not used to at QB so the team worked on a more downfield passing attack this spring.

Dalton’s improvement plus getting back his healthy RBs running behind in OL returning 4 of 5 has me believing TCU can reach the 10 win plateau. Something they did 4 of the last 5 seasons before last year’s 8 win season.

The 4-2-5 defense will always be stout under TCU as the Horned Frogs return 7 on defense. The Frogs have returned 6 starters or more in 5 of the past 6 seasons. All 5 of those defenses held opponents to less then 18 ppg.

TCU has won the last 3 meetings by 22 ppg.
 
SHSUHorn said:
I actually capped it with New Mexico in my power numbers and for some reason was thinking of Mumme and not Long during the write-up.

LOL as I was writing I started thinking I needed to add more to the play.

I agree the play is solid with TCU recent success vs New Mexico and the fact the Lobos are breaking in a ton of new starters. Its going to be a long first month untill Long gets the players going under his system on defense and offense.

TCU –6 @ New Mexico (5 UNITS)

Seems to be a favorite play on the board and I agree with everyone that TCU is the play. TCU had its worse offense in years last year. A freshman QB and injuries to its two best RBs hurt the offense last year.

Andy Dalton at QB though does look like a keeper as he improved tremendously over his first year. He has a cannon for an arm something TCU is not used to at QB so the team worked on a more downfield passing attack this spring.

Dalton’s improvement plus getting back his healthy RBs running behind in OL returning 4 of 5 has me believing TCU can reach the 10 win plateau. Something they did 4 of the last 5 seasons before last year’s 8 win season.

The 4-2-5 defense will always be stout under TCU as the Horned Frogs return 7 on defense. The Frogs have returned 6 starters or more in 5 of the past 6 seasons. All 5 of those defenses held opponents to less then 18 ppg.

TCU has won the last 3 meetings by 22 ppg.
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:smiley_acbe:


Horn , I think the usc line only goes up so i think you did a good job getting that before it reached 3 full td. gl brutha.
 
Last play on my card…

UNT @ KSU –24.5 (5 UNITS)

UNT loss 145-17 combined vs the two BCS teams it faced last year (OU & Ark). There were even some rumors going around that the OU coaching staff was laughing about the “high school” plays UNT was running under 1st year head coach Todd Dodge who had coached only 7 years in HS prior to last year.

Like Hawaii and TT the UNT offense is a fast paced high octane offense that ends up killing the defense. UNT gave up a ridiculous 45 ppg last season.

KSU best offensive performance in school history was in 2005 vs UNT (658 yards) and have won 18 home openers by an average of 27 points. I think we can expect another huge offensive performance here as I feel this will be QB Josh Freeman’s breakout year behind an OL that has 4 returning SR starters.

KSU has dipped back into the Snyder era as well bringing in 19 JUCO kids that some will have immediate impacts.

Blowout city here.
 
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Can't believe a 'Horn would miss "Todd Dodge" name.

I haven't been reading up, but I wonder if he tries to play Riley this year.

I need to see the total on that Rice/SMU game. Could be a scorefest.

GL

Press
 
GL horn. I like Rice the most I think. I thought the number should have been at or even north of one touchdown, so imagine how excited I got when I heard LVSC was going with 4.5. Now come find out offshores are starting at 3 so basically I have just been walking around with a big stiffie all the time and its starting to get awkward at work and on the bus. I am going to do something that frequently burns me and that is wait to see if I can get it below 3. I mean why not its already lower than it ought to be right? And the Jones hype hasn't even started going yet. Texas is starting to look pretty damn good at 23.5 as well as Kansas State, but I want to see how high/low they bring out the Wildcats-Mean Green total before deciding for sure. Even with the rule changes I could see that one soaring into the 70s or 80s in total points.

I won't be on any of your road chalks but other than NM I lean to both of them (WF and USC), and as we've seen if there is a time to get away with that its generally week one or two. As for Stanford, I don't disagree with the handicapping, just the play. For me, at that price it would have to be a ML wager (+170 or more) rather than a spread play as I don't think this is the type of game they lose by a field goal. Either they are able to stop OSU's offense or they are not, probably an all-or-nothing scenario.
 
TheGarfather said:
GL horn. I like Rice the most I think. I thought the number should have been at or even north of one touchdown, so imagine how excited I got when I heard LVSC was going with 4.5. Now come find out offshores are starting at 3 so basically I have just been walking around with a big stiffie all the time and its starting to get awkward at work and on the bus. I am going to do something that frequently burns me and that is wait to see if I can get it below 3. I mean why not its already lower than it ought to be right? And the Jones hype hasn't even started going yet. Texas is starting to look pretty damn good at 23.5 as well as Kansas State, but I want to see how high/low they bring out the Wildcats-Mean Green total before deciding for sure. Even with the rule changes I could see that one soaring into the 70s or 80s in total points.

I won't be on any of your road chalks but other than NM I lean to both of them (WF and USC), and as we've seen if there is a time to get away with that its generally week one or two. As for Stanford, I don't disagree with the handicapping, just the play. For me, at that price it would have to be a ML wager (+170 or more) rather than a spread play as I don't think this is the type of game they lose by a field goal. Either they are able to stop OSU's offense or they are not, probably an all-or-nothing scenario.
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Good points. I've never been a ML player but you definitley make sense on the Stanford play. I remember reeading vegaskyle thread on most of these games with small threads the dog usually wins outright.

On Rice one of their starting players on defense works security at our club and they really do expect to get to a bowl game and challenge for the conference title. He said Dillard and Clement have just been ridiculous with their timing.
 
cubsker said:
not sure I can trust WF to lay that many on the road. I really like their defense and see them having a big year this year, but they play to their competition.
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Agree that WF plays to their competition but how is Baylor going to score? they didnt move the ball that well last yr and that was with QB's knowing the system - now they will be implementing a new offense and being that they havent named a QB yet, so no QB is getting the majority of the reps and then they dont even have a cupcake to open the season to help wrinkle out the newness factor...........Its not one of my fav plays opening weekend, RF's rarely will be but this one is worth a look.
 
Sarcastic Sword said:
Agree that WF plays to their competition but how is Baylor going to score? they didnt move the ball that well last yr and that was with QB's knowing the system - now they will be implementing a new offense and being that they havent named a QB yet, so no QB is getting the majority of the reps and then they dont even have a cupcake to open the season to help wrinkle out the newness factor...........Its not one of my fav plays opening weekend, RF's rarely will be but this one is worth a look.
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I agree it's worth a look and I lean to WF here. 13 just seems too many for my liking. I was hoping for a number like 10.
 
BOL this year. I like the Rice and TCU plays. Leaning towards Texas...I'm behind on my card for week 1, it's been one hell of a summer :popcorn::popcorn::popcorn:.
 
SHSUHorn said:
Locked in on some plays and more write-ups to follow but Texas was a very easy pick here to start my betting card.

FAU @ Texas –24.5 (5 UNITS)

I understand the Owls won the Sun Belt last year and are returning 18 starters from last year but this line should still be in the 30s. The Owls couldn’t stop anyone on defense last year and have gotten creamed when they’ve faced the big boys.

Look at some of the past results the last two years…

In 2006 when they returned 15 starters:

Clemson 54 FAU 6
KSU 45 FAU 0
Okie St. 48 FAU 8
S. Carolina 45 FAU 6

Last year when they returned 16 starters:

Okie St. 42 FAU 6
Kentucky 45 FAU 17
Florida 59 FAU 20

Note the results when they played the Big 12 teams. Texas is clearly better then every team I’ve listed above except for maybe Florida’s team last year.

After Texas loss to A&M at the end of the year it may have lit a fire under Brown and he knew he needed to dump some of his coaching philosophies. That was evident in the Holiday Bowl where he opened up the depth chart and competition for the starting jobs were actually done on the field instead of handed over to less talented upperclassmen like he had done all last season and in years past.

Muschamp is now the DC and is rumored to have total autonomy. Muschamp is arguably the top DC in the country and his defenses have finished in the top 5 in five of his 6 years as a DC. The addition of Applewhite should help give them some fresh innovative ideas on offense. Mainly in moving more toward Mccoy’s strengths instead of hanging on to an offense that should only be run by a guy now wearing a Titans uniform.

I also think Texas comes out and handles FAU because of last year’s opener vs Arkie St. where Texas only won by 8. The team didn’t look focused or interested to be playing and I’m sure that game will be on the coaches minds leading up to this match-up.

Texas wins this one by 5 TDs or more.
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Just a view from my side. I can see the logic in you playing Texas Horn. But before this game would be a real solid play, there are a few points I believe, need to happen to actually win this game.

First you have to have an iron-clad guarantee that Texas wants to score 53 points.

Secondly, you are betting on a team with only 4 returning starters on defense. With that factor, its reasonable to say that they MUST stop FAU from scoring more than 20 points.

Next is that Tex has a road game at UTEP, and then they come back home to face Arkansas. Somewhere in all this mess, they have to find out what their defense is capable of. My guess is that they will score enough to secure a win in both games and put backups in on offense for three reasons.
1. Is to make sure no one gets hurt. 2. To not show any new plays that they have to use against Arkansas. But number 3, is more important. 3. to give the defense as many plays as possible to get experience and for them to see what they have.
These will be the main reasons I would NOT bet this game.

On a small note, the games Texas scored 50 or more in last season - was when they were sporting a better defense, that was giving up 26 points to bowl teams last year. This season they are playing a team that was a bowl team last year with most of those 'bowlers' on the team again this year. And Texas is short handed IMO a little this year on 'D'.

:shake:
 
SHSUHorn said:
USC –20.5 @ Virginia (4 UNITS)

Virginia’s 9 wins last season look great on paper but they won 5 of those games by 2 points or less. They return only 11 starters total from last year’s team and young teams usually don’t pull out as many close ball games.

Jameel Sewel is out at QB for academic reasons so sophomore Peter Lalich and his 35 career completions, steps in against probably the best defense in the country. USC returns 7 on last year’s #2 total defense and without question has the fastest back seven in the country.

With UVA having to replace its entire interior on the OL with no depth (3 freshman on the two deep), a QB making his first start with only 1 decent WR on the roster (Ogletree) I expect them to score less then 7 points in this game.

On defense the Cavs have always been stout under Groh but will face some growing pains early on. They have to replace the entire starting DL plus top reserve Jeff Fitzgerald. Like the OL the second team might end up being all freshman. Without the pressure of Chris Long and Fitzgerald (21 sacks total) the inexperienced secondary is going to get lit up by the WRs USC throws at them.

USC also has a bye week after this game to prepare for Ohio St. so there shouldn’t be any looking ahead. Whether on the road or at home USC has murdered and had some eye opening statement OOC games.

This has the making of a 35-3 type game.
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I think all the Buckeye spies will be at that game to see the USC team in action and that will lkely cause So Cal to shut it down early. This number should be SC -18. So - IMO Vegas has this number 2 points too high. This game could finish with a 13 point win or less here (late score by Virg). But winning by 21 or more is sketchy to me.

Please note, in games on the road where SC had less turnovers against good bowl teams, they won by an average of 13.5 points. In the only other road game against another bowl team, they lost the turnover advantage (3-2) and were beaten by 7 points. In NO game did they win by more than 21! And the number on this game is 20.5. Hmmmm?

No Play IMO.

:shake:
 
G-Man said:
Just a view from my side. I can see the logic in you playing Texas Horn. But before this game would be a real solid play, there are a few points I believe, need to happen to actually win this game.

First you have to have an iron-clad guarantee that Texas wants to score 53 points.

Secondly, you are betting on a team with only 4 returning starters on defense. With that factor, its reasonable to say that they MUST stop FAU from scoring more than 20 points.

Next is that Tex has a road game at UTEP, and then they come back home to face Arkansas. Somewhere in all this mess, they have to find out what their defense is capable of. My guess is that they will score enough to secure a win in both games and put backups in on offense for three reasons.
1. Is to make sure no one gets hurt. 2. To not show any new plays that they have to use against Arkansas. But number 3, is more important. 3. to give the defense as many plays as possible to get experience and for them to see what they have.
These will be the main reasons I would NOT bet this game.

On a small note, the games Texas scored 50 or more in last season - was when they were sporting a better defense, that was giving up 26 points to bowl teams last year. This season they are playing a team that was a bowl team last year with most of those 'bowlers' on the team again this year. And Texas is short handed IMO a little this year on 'D'.

:shake:
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Texas is one team I wouldn't use Phil Steele's mag on.

He lists this as his starting defense which I bolded the 4 he says are the returning starters:

DE Sr. Brian Orakpo - All Big XII

DT Sr. Roy Miller - He should be listed as a returning starter. He is preseason All-Big XII and has seen plenty of snaps since his frosh year. He was in a 3 man tackle rotation that split alot of time.

DT Jr. Lamarr Houston - Started last year at DE

DE Sr. Aaron Lewis - Was the starter last year before he got hurt. He has started 10 games. Probably should be listed as returning starter but it won't matter because he won't even be starting here. It will probably be RSSoph. Eddie Jones who was one of the best DE in the country coming out of HS.

LB Jr. Jared Norton - Probably won't start. Jr. Sergio Kindle the top defensive player in the country coming out of HS will probably get the nod.

MLB Sr. Rashad Bobino - 4 year starter and still the least talented LB on the team. Another Mack plays upperclassmen when he shouldn't.

LB Jr. Roddrick Muckelroy - Not listed as a starter but had one less tackle then two other starting LBs from last year. Meaning he saw plenty of snaps. He was actually the best LB on the team last year.

CB Sr. Ryan Palmer - Steele got one right.

CB Jr. Deon Beasley - Another non-starter who saw plenty of snaps. He was the best DB on the team last year IMO.

SS Jr. Ishie Oduegwu - Won't start here. Christian Scott will.

FS Jr. Chykie Brown - Won't start here. Earl Thomas will. Brown isn't even a safety, he's a corner back. Not sure where Steele got his info here.

So if you read everything up top you'll see a common theme that drove us Longhorn fans insane last year...

Backups better then starters? Yes.

Mack Brown 2006 class at the time was his best ever since VY's 2002 class. All of those kids were either RSFR or Sophmores last year. Brown though loves to play upperclassmen because they've "bleed for the program".

It's a bunch of horseshit and you need to play the best players regardless of classification. After the A&M loss he finally opened up the depth chart or the bowl game and out trotted alot of underclassmen and they went on to whip the crap out of ASU.

From the 2006 class that will be starting on this years defense will be Jones, Houston, Kindle, Norton, and Beasley.

Texas only had one of its 7 seniors on defense drafted and that was in the 5th round.

That means there wasn't alot of talent back there. I guarentee you all five of those 2006 kids will be drafted.

I didn't even mention the coaching. Akina was promoted from DB coach to DC and after one season was already demoted back to DB coach. Have you ever seen that with a major program? No.

The defense will be head and shoulders better then last year because the talent level is much higher and because they brought in Will Muschamp the best DC in the country IMO.

This is one case where I wouldn't look at the returning starters on defense.

The only question marks about this defense is depth at DT and the two young safeties. I either of the DTs get hurt they are in bigtime trouble.
 
Nice little blurb from Chip Brown's article on Rivals.

None of Muschamp's five college defenses at LSU (2002-04) and Auburn (2006-07) have ever finished outside the top 10 in total defense. Those defenses have never given up more than 18.3 points per game in a season. The 2003 LSU national title team was No. 1 in scoring defense, giving up just 11.0 ppg. Texas gave up 25.3 ppg last season.
 
SHSUHorn said:
Texas is one team I wouldn't use Phil Steele's mag on.

He lists this as his starting defense which I bolded the 4 he says are the returning starters:

DE Sr. Brian Orakpo - All Big XII

DT Sr. Roy Miller - He should be listed as a returning starter. He is preseason All-Big XII and has seen plenty of snaps since his frosh year. He was in a 3 man tackle rotation that split alot of time.

DT Jr. Lamarr Houston - Started last year at DE

DE Sr. Aaron Lewis - Was the starter last year before he got hurt. He has started 10 games. Probably should be listed as returning starter but it won't matter because he won't even be starting here. It will probably be RSSoph. Eddie Jones who was one of the best DE in the country coming out of HS.

LB Jr. Jared Norton - Probably won't start. Jr. Sergio Kindle the top defensive player in the country coming out of HS will probably get the nod.

MLB Sr. Rashad Bobino - 4 year starter and still the least talented LB on the team. Another Mack plays upperclassmen when he shouldn't.

LB Jr. Roddrick Muckelroy - Not listed as a starter but had one less tackle then two other starting LBs from last year. Meaning he saw plenty of snaps. He was actually the best LB on the team last year.

CB Sr. Ryan Palmer - Steele got one right.

CB Jr. Deon Beasley - Another non-starter who saw plenty of snaps. He was the best DB on the team last year IMO.

SS Jr. Ishie Oduegwu - Won't start here. Christian Scott will.

FS Jr. Chykie Brown - Won't start here. Earl Thomas will. Brown isn't even a safety, he's a corner back. Not sure where Steele got his info here.

So if you read everything up top you'll see a common theme that drove us Longhorn fans insane last year...

Backups better then starters? Yes.

Mack Brown 2006 class at the time was his best ever since VY's 2002 class. All of those kids were either RSFR or Sophmores last year. Brown though loves to play upperclassmen because they've "bleed for the program".

It's a bunch of horseshit and you need to play the best players regardless of classification. After the A&M loss he finally opened up the depth chart or the bowl game and out trotted alot of underclassmen and they went on to whip the crap out of ASU.

From the 2006 class that will be starting on this years defense will be Jones, Houston, Kindle, Norton, and Beasley.

Texas only had one of its 7 seniors on defense drafted and that was in the 5th round.

That means there wasn't alot of talent back there. I guarentee you all five of those 2006 kids will be drafted.

I didn't even mention the coaching. Akina was promoted from DB coach to DC and after one season was already demoted back to DB coach. Have you ever seen that with a major program? No.

The defense will be head and shoulders better then last year because the talent level is much higher and because they brought in Will Muschamp the best DC in the country IMO.

This is one case where I wouldn't look at the returning starters on defense.

The only question marks about this defense is depth at DT and the two young safeties. I either of the DTs get hurt they are in bigtime trouble.
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I would lean a little more in your favor Horn about the coach putting in better players for this bowl game, but this isnt all that happened in the bowl game. Texas had a gift of 5 turnovers from ASU - and that is always one of the reasons teams arent as good or bad as they look.

You do make excellent points though on the true player potential of the new guys.

But In My experience, I'll just wait to see if they are really good enough to lay this number.

I'm hoping for the best outcome in your favor though.

GL:shake:
 
G-Man said:
I would lean a little more in your favor Horn about the coach putting in better players for this bowl game, but this isnt all that happened in the bowl game. Texas had a gift of 5 turnovers from ASU - and that is always one of the reasons teams arent as good or bad as they look.

You do make excellent points though on the true player potential of the new guys.

But In My experience, I'll just wait to see if they are really good enough to lay this number.

I'm hoping for the best outcome in your favor though.

GL:shake:
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Agree with you Gman that turnovers can make for some very deceiving scores ... VERY. But i bet arizona state in that game and Texas bitch slapped them. I didn't think texas would be motivated and was wrong. It was the best first quarter texas played all year last season and possibly their best overall game. And in regards to the turnovers , they were minus 4 but that does not take into account the 7 point unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that mac browns son-in-law gave them by trying to recover a fumble. :36_11_6:
 
VegasKyle. Agree with you Gman that turnovers can make for some very deceiving scores ... VERY. But i bet arizona state in that game and Texas bitch slapped them. I didn't think texas would be motivated and was wrong. It was the best first quarter texas played all year last season and possibly their best overall game. And in regards to the turnovers , they were minus 4 but that does not take into account the 7 point unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that mac browns son-in-law gave them by trying to recover a fumble.
Click to expand...

SHSUHorn said:
I also agree it was Texas best game. On defense they inserted 4 new starters. All underclassmen.
Click to expand...

GL guys. I'll agree that all your points are great reasons for a play. I just have to see it to bet it first and I hate teams that coast with big leads....:shake:
 
Still not worried about USC even if Sanchez and Mcknight are out. UVA is going to have alot of trouble putting ANY points on the board.
 
Basically they lost RB J. Charles, TE Finley, and WR Sweed who was hurt all year last year anyway.

RB - I can't remember the last time Texas has had an issue at RB even going back before Mack Brown. P. Holmes, R. Williams, C. Benson, S. Young, J. Charles...were all playing in the NFL either this year or last year.

You've never heard of RS Soph. Vondrell Mcgee but he was a bad ass in HS out of East Texas tearing it up in probably the best district in the state. Was the #3 All-purpose back in the country by Rivals and rushed for over 3,400 yards and 44 TDs in his final two years of HS.

RS Fr. Fozzy Whitaker will spell him in a "Felix Jones" type way. Not saying he's as good but he's the quick change of pace back that will get plenty of carries. Whitaker has been the #1 young suprise for the camp this year. He's turning a ton of heads.

TE is a small concern as Texas does have Sophmore Blaine Irby but even last year many thought the TE wasn't used as much as it should've been even with a talent like Finley.

Sweed was hurt all year with the wrist injury and finally shut it down after the 6th game of the season. Texas struggled last year when he went down because they didn't have a big physical WR who could play the split end position and stretch the defense. Shipley and Cosby return and both are solid but RS Fr. Malcolm Williams will be the one trying to replace Sweed outside. Williams has all the talent in the world but he is still young.

The key to this offense will come down to the OL more then anything. If the improved OL can keep Mccoy from having happy feet Texas will be fine on offense. Texas returns the entire two deep on the OL from its bowl game.
 
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