nropp11
Vice-President of Fondy Fanclub
3* 11-2, +25.80
2* 11-6, +9.00
1* 37-30, +7.73
Year: 59-38, +42.53
November 13, 14, 2007
Toledo at Ball State
Akron at Miami OH
Selection: ML Parlay -110
There is absolutely, positively, no doubt in my mind that Ball State is the better football team. While I initially lean Ball State and the under, I’m gonna pair this game w/ Wednesday night’s game as well and rid the points. This game has a ton of interesting angles. Both quarterbacks were recruited by both schools, so the coaches know a bit more about each of them than other opponents they have faced this year. While both of these offenses are at or near the top of the MAC, don’t be fooled by their rankings. Yes, Toledo sits at #1 in just about every category, but 3 weeks ago, they weren’t #1. If it weren’t for Ball State scheduling Illinois, Indiana, teams like that, they’d still be at the top. As for Toledo, they have an extremely good RB in Parmele and Opelt has blossomed the last three weeks as well. However, those victories came against an Ohio team that is down, Northern Illinois, and Eastern Michigan. They’ve looked absolutely pitiful on the road, and you’d have to go back to the first game of last year to see the last time they scored more than 31 points on the road. They scored 31 early in the year on CMU’s defense, and CMU and BSU are pretty similar as far as defensive gameplan goes. I’d almost give the edge to BSU even. This is a Ball State team that’s only two losses in the conference were to, in my opinion, the best two teams in the conference, Miami OH and CMU. Everything on paper leads to a shootout. But what isn’t on the statsheet, is that each of these coaches have much experience on the defensive side of the ball. Yes, the stats don’t show it, b/c they haven’t had to play defense up to this point. That, and w/ the coaching staffs knowing a bit more about each other’s respective quarterback, you could make a great case w/ a public fade on the under. However, throughout the years, even though these teams have played to an under 66 almost every time, there have sure been some weird occurrences that have taken place in Muncie. It should be a pretty decent night weather wise, actually warmed up quite a bit in the Midwest today, so that’s a plus for the passing game and Ball State. If this does go to a shootout, they have the more reliable weapons and the better QB. If it doesn’t, they still have the playmakers to win the game. I had this game at –4 capped last Friday, noting Toledo’s dominance and streak as of late, also noting the matchups of previous years. However, Ball State comes in here having faced two Big-10 opponents, and w/ the Illinois win over Ohio State, this line has creeped up due to BSU’s ability to hang with Illinois. Speaking of Illinois, Nate Davis was recruited to play basketball at Illinois, along with many other Big-10 schools. Toledo just isn’t the football team of year’s past, and with the first ever nationally televised game in Muncie, with ESPN coming to town, I like the home squad here…
As for Wednesday’s game, you could probably go back and read just about every write-up on Miami OH, combine that here, and we’d have about five page of material on why I’m playing Miami OH. I said at the beginning of the year, Miami would beat Ball State on the road, and win this division of the MAC. The road has been a tough one, and through many injuries, they still control their own destiny. Akron is coming off a big win and is in a letdown spot here. Miami has revenge, ESPN coming to town, and with a victory here, is probably a –1 or a PK in a rivalry game next week. The only thing that worries me is that rivalry game, which I would be afraid to lay the –8.5 in this spot, but with a title on the line after what this team went through last year, and a great home field advantage, and Sykes coming back into the lineup, they should be able to play a field position type game and win it with the defense. Kokal is questionable from what I’ve seen, as he is the QB, and leader of the team, both physically and mentally. My initial thoughts is that they sit him here unless they absolutely need him, and bring him back next week, and if he does play next week, you’ll see my biggest play of the year more than likely at a decent line. Miami’s just had too much preparation and too much at stake here to lose this game
2* ML Parlay –110 (Ball State -, Miami OH -)
GL
2* 11-6, +9.00
1* 37-30, +7.73
Year: 59-38, +42.53
November 13, 14, 2007
Toledo at Ball State
Akron at Miami OH
Selection: ML Parlay -110
There is absolutely, positively, no doubt in my mind that Ball State is the better football team. While I initially lean Ball State and the under, I’m gonna pair this game w/ Wednesday night’s game as well and rid the points. This game has a ton of interesting angles. Both quarterbacks were recruited by both schools, so the coaches know a bit more about each of them than other opponents they have faced this year. While both of these offenses are at or near the top of the MAC, don’t be fooled by their rankings. Yes, Toledo sits at #1 in just about every category, but 3 weeks ago, they weren’t #1. If it weren’t for Ball State scheduling Illinois, Indiana, teams like that, they’d still be at the top. As for Toledo, they have an extremely good RB in Parmele and Opelt has blossomed the last three weeks as well. However, those victories came against an Ohio team that is down, Northern Illinois, and Eastern Michigan. They’ve looked absolutely pitiful on the road, and you’d have to go back to the first game of last year to see the last time they scored more than 31 points on the road. They scored 31 early in the year on CMU’s defense, and CMU and BSU are pretty similar as far as defensive gameplan goes. I’d almost give the edge to BSU even. This is a Ball State team that’s only two losses in the conference were to, in my opinion, the best two teams in the conference, Miami OH and CMU. Everything on paper leads to a shootout. But what isn’t on the statsheet, is that each of these coaches have much experience on the defensive side of the ball. Yes, the stats don’t show it, b/c they haven’t had to play defense up to this point. That, and w/ the coaching staffs knowing a bit more about each other’s respective quarterback, you could make a great case w/ a public fade on the under. However, throughout the years, even though these teams have played to an under 66 almost every time, there have sure been some weird occurrences that have taken place in Muncie. It should be a pretty decent night weather wise, actually warmed up quite a bit in the Midwest today, so that’s a plus for the passing game and Ball State. If this does go to a shootout, they have the more reliable weapons and the better QB. If it doesn’t, they still have the playmakers to win the game. I had this game at –4 capped last Friday, noting Toledo’s dominance and streak as of late, also noting the matchups of previous years. However, Ball State comes in here having faced two Big-10 opponents, and w/ the Illinois win over Ohio State, this line has creeped up due to BSU’s ability to hang with Illinois. Speaking of Illinois, Nate Davis was recruited to play basketball at Illinois, along with many other Big-10 schools. Toledo just isn’t the football team of year’s past, and with the first ever nationally televised game in Muncie, with ESPN coming to town, I like the home squad here…
As for Wednesday’s game, you could probably go back and read just about every write-up on Miami OH, combine that here, and we’d have about five page of material on why I’m playing Miami OH. I said at the beginning of the year, Miami would beat Ball State on the road, and win this division of the MAC. The road has been a tough one, and through many injuries, they still control their own destiny. Akron is coming off a big win and is in a letdown spot here. Miami has revenge, ESPN coming to town, and with a victory here, is probably a –1 or a PK in a rivalry game next week. The only thing that worries me is that rivalry game, which I would be afraid to lay the –8.5 in this spot, but with a title on the line after what this team went through last year, and a great home field advantage, and Sykes coming back into the lineup, they should be able to play a field position type game and win it with the defense. Kokal is questionable from what I’ve seen, as he is the QB, and leader of the team, both physically and mentally. My initial thoughts is that they sit him here unless they absolutely need him, and bring him back next week, and if he does play next week, you’ll see my biggest play of the year more than likely at a decent line. Miami’s just had too much preparation and too much at stake here to lose this game
2* ML Parlay –110 (Ball State -, Miami OH -)
GL
