NCAA FB WEEK 0 + RSW Plays *LOCKED IN

here were last years (2022) RSW Plays. I am 72% ATS on these plays over 10 years.

LOSS 1. MTSU UN 5.5 -121

WIN 2. Ball StUN 5.5 -130

WIN 3. Memphis UN 7.5 -101

WIN 4. Iowa UN 7.5 +101

WIN 5. WKU UN 8.5 -120

LOSS 6. Oregon St UN 6 -101

WIN 7. UL Laf UN 8.5 +104

WIN 8. Colorado UN3.5 -106

LOSS 9. Wyo. UN5.5 -137
 
Yeah Wyoming LY wooooahhh think it was my first to die .. well really Colorado State was but just took longer to get eliminated .. back/forth on hitting the cowboys this year 6 seems very do-able but think they have a few likely losses on the schedule too .. wish they had anything to like at QB I'd get on board pretty quick for 6 and the conf odds at 13-1 or so ..

AAC looks like fun this year hit ECU U5.5 too I am juuuust a little worried on that one but yeah had to play it with them losing a MASSIVE talent load .... with you on UNT, wanted to play them w Rogers coming in but no way we were getting a good number after LY .. somehow FD somehow came up with a 7.5 grabbed that right away I thought 6.5 was even way too high ...... Suspicions confirmed on Tulsa, Digital Phil has them sounding HORRRRRIFIC thinking under 4.5 might win a game or two this year but already a little heavy on AAC plays .. hit Rice over 4 think is at least tough to lose .. can't take FAU's RSW landing Thompson blew up my plan w them thought they were in a great spot w Richardson and get em like 6 or so and some super juicy conf odds .. 7.5 is in the no play zone .. really had to talk myself into taking them ~10-1 for the conf total disappointment after I thought we'd get a high teens or a 20-1 bomb .. SMU has a schedule we can almost lock in a conf champ game spot, maybe they blow it a CCG trip seems like its just sitting there for the taking.. late stretch vs UNT then @Memp is the tough stuff .. gotta fire everyone if they can't make it this year lol ..

good luck this year duck!!!
 
Updated:

NCAA WEEK 0

Locked in:
Navy +21
San Jose State +30
UTEP+ J-St over 53.5
San Diego st -4 -107

RSW:
*Central Michigan under 5.5 -120
*North Texas under 6.5 -120.
*East Carolina under 5.5 -150
*South Alabama under 8-130.
*MTSU under 6.5 +100
*San Jose St under 5.5 +120
*Minnesota under 7.5 -160
*UTEP over 5.5 -115
*Indiana under 3.5 +140
*Vanderbilt over 3.5 -150
 
Nice duck yeah hit Utep yesterday .. im more relying on Phil's read on the team he isin't willy-nilly with his predicted conference order since its graded vs the other previews and one of the bigger surprises in the mag was UTEP #2 and Liberty pushed down to a tie at #4 with La Tech ... think every preview will more/less stick w the SP+ order which has Liberty and WKY far and away the top 2 teams and Utep way back around 5th, so banking on Phil being at least in the ball park with his read .. if UTEP even sniffs contention in CUSA then 5.5 should win easy and I'd say means they'll have about 10 winnable games maybe just WKY and @Arizona outta reach?...

Also hit UTEP 16-1 and NMSU 30-1 .. only 6 eligible conf champ teams.. does seem like WKY will romp but pretty solid D loses a ton of guys and huge risk if AR-16 gets hurt think that would make them a completely different team.. looks like you got a beat on Mid T again good luck .. if yer right about Mid T then no reason the long shots are not as viable as anyone else to at least make the champ game ..

Took a bite on week 0 Utep +2.5 @J-Ville too .. I know its a big game for the baby cocks but if UTEP can't wax J-Ville then we can throw Phil's prediction out the window, he has them dead last in CUSA .. good luck duck!
 
Bridge1 said:
Nice duck yeah hit Utep yesterday .. im more relying on Phil's read on the team he isin't willy-nilly with his predicted conference order since its graded vs the other previews and one of the bigger surprises in the mag was UTEP #2 and Liberty pushed down to a tie at #4 with La Tech ... think every preview will more/less stick w the SP+ order which has Liberty and WKY far and away the top 2 teams and Utep way back around 5th, so banking on Phil being at least in the ball park with his read .. if UTEP even sniffs contention in CUSA then 5.5 should win easy and I'd say means they'll have about 10 winnable games maybe just WKY and @Arizona outta reach?...

Also hit UTEP 16-1 and NMSU 30-1 .. only 6 eligible conf champ teams.. does seem like WKY will romp but pretty solid D loses a ton of guys and huge risk if AR-16 gets hurt think that would make them a completely different team.. looks like you got a beat on Mid T again good luck .. if yer right about Mid T then no reason the long shots are not as viable as anyone else to at least make the champ game ..

Took a bite on week 0 Utep +2.5 @J-Ville too .. I know its a big game for the baby cocks but if UTEP can't wax J-Ville then we can throw Phil's prediction out the window, he has them dead last in CUSA .. good luck duck!
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Nice reply bridge. You are murdering it. So few focus on the greatest sport on earth this early in the summer. It’s what I live for. Might sprinkle on UTEP for the conference. We will certainlu have some buy. Back opportunities later on if necessary. Would love to see Hardison take the next step this year and hit some of those deep bombs we are accustomed to seeing him serve up. OL and DL should feast cs watered down foes. (ps pun intended)
 
Yeah bud try to get the bulk of my pre-ssn action in before the mags drop and grab anything that looks interesting in Phil right away esp long shots or stuff that might tighten up before too long ..
Didn't see much of the Miners LY but Hardison was whiffin on some big shots.. easier with Cowing there lol .. Think you were the first nail it w the Miners as they were coming out of the muck back in '21 and or maybe covid year .. you putt'em on da map lol .. Yeah 16-1 for the conf at a few shops quite a few at 12-1 I think it would be real tough to keep it over 10 if folks start warming up to the idea they have a shot I mean Mid T and La Tech are like around 5-1 and I don't think they have any shot lol .. good luck bud!
 
Duck, you got a beat on the new Navy QB or anything else interesting w them?.. team looks like a real wildcard, they were awfully close to a 2019 level EPIC season LY and need just a few things to start clickin this year we might see something huge like that.. new OC and QB is a good start .. I bagged 40-1 for the AAC ..not ready to throw down on week 1 vs ND but if you got a scoop that they're droppin a golden anchor this year let me know brother!!!
 
Bridge1 said:
Duck, you got a beat on the new Navy QB or anything else interesting w them?.. team looks like a real wildcard, they were awfully close to a 2019 level EPIC season LY and need just a few things to start clickin this year we might see something huge like that.. new OC and QB is a good start .. I bagged 40-1 for the AAC ..not ready to throw down on week 1 vs ND but if you got a scoop that they're droppin a golden anchor this year let me know brother!!!
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I think people are assuming a huge offensive overhaul, but they’re really just adding some additional option principles, think Kennesaw state.

The overhaul and air force is going to be much more significant, something I would be extremely concerned about. As you know, it all starts and ends with the full back and navy must have strong guard and center play along with getting the fullback humming. Something they can do and did well at time last year. But they have to hit 2-3 pop passes (usually extremely explosive) and score TD in the red zone.

Frankly, I just think there’s too much pomp and circumstance with Notre Dame playing in Ireland, I think navy will be better prepared for the travel, and it’s gonna take a few things. Ball control, success on third and fourth down efficiency on defense, which I don’t hate, given how they played the last several games of last year. I just don’t think they’re gonna be that bad and we all know they seem to play up, and play down to their competition they face.

Would not be surprised if it’s a seven point game late, and people turn on the TV and say “holy crap navy’s in this thing”. Of course it could be 45-17 with Notre Dame running clock in the last minutes as well.

I just think with all the time to prepare, we will get navy’s best and if they score 20 they’ll have a great chance to cover
 
Nice dude yeah man o man Navy LY took a couple big scalps and very close on a few others and hung in a few big boys on the road .. run D and the sack corps had em in alotta games .. I like the coaching move its a shame to see Ken go but my understanding is he wanted the QB's coach Jasper to stay as OC and the AD's wanted to change things up and think officially they didn't even have an OC the last couple years .. O really toiled .. they had to make a move couldn't lose the DC think think he gets poached away if he wasn't promoted .. got an all Kennisaw team bringing in their OC and keep the QB's coach whose been there forever .. one of my favorite coaching shake ups this year .. think just need to find a dual threat gamer at QB that can throw a few more passes .. if so think the O turns on in a big way they got alot of the tools that made them (almost) giant slayers LY ..

Only real big concern w Navy is against the stronger pass heavy teams .. seems to be the case often w the SA's just don't have the strongest coverage units .. Houston romp'd em pretty big LY, even pinned memphis rush down they threw all over em .. I didn't see ND LY but looks like Pyne went heisman in H1 and idk who made the halftime speech but fire that guy because their offense DIED in the Navy near comeback .. that's my concern w ND game Hartman maybe zing it all game take the top off Navy's secondary a few times, its def a test for Navy's DB's .. trying to figure out if Navy's O can match serve a little but tough to gauge, new guys in spring and nobody picked yet, etc .. but if so then yeah gimme 3TD's all day!!.. ND's new OC is also one of my least favorite hires his run game stuuunk at WV when it shouldn't have and fired .. think it was forced promotion w the scramble after bama took Rees.. also not a great hire for the tide IMO .. good luck buddy!
 
If you have a moment, talk to me about the Minnesota RSW U...

I understand it looking at the schedule, just curious on any other thoughts...
 
I was at least leaning under on that one too B.A.R. .. schedule is rough n tumble, seems like @UNC and ILL are both must wins or the path to 8 wins goes very uphill ... those are two very different tests for the Gophs so if not fairly complete there's def a way to lose one or both ... schedule aside my read is they have quite a bit of uncertainty both on the roster and w the OC change .. I see a path to a big year potentially but so many moving parts I think there's more roads that could take them the other way .. put a few notes below on the roster/coaching moves .. good luck!

Don't like ..
- lose the RB's .. Ibrahim to the NFL and idk why in the world Potts would transfer to Penn State he was likely the next dude up and not see the field at all at PSU, wasn't expecting that move he's very likely a depth player w PSU .. they add Sean Tyler form WMich.. lot to like but Potts / Ibrahim were both 210 pounds could split that B10 D pounding, Tyler maybe getting a large bulk of carries at 185 LBs ..
- QB Morgan gone we'll see what Athan "The Spartan" Kaliakmanis can do.. supposedly big arm .. not sure he really sold anyone while subbing in when Morgan was injured but the OC dialed the passing wayyyy down LY could be much diff this year ..
Do Like ..
- The OL should be beastly again still have the great OL coach and by now should have guys lining up to play for their great OL coach .. lose 3 good ones but that seems very manageable they had almost all new starters LY and did great ... but yeah even if very strong need QB/RB play to be strong too ..
- The potential wildcard is the rec targets . unit was throttled LY w injuries and OC didn't dial up much of a pass game .. TE spann ford was the only real legit target for a bulk of LY .. he's very good and leading WR Jackson is back .. Autman-Bell back from injury (or .. he should be!!), Phil has him 2nd string in his depth chart and think its because they also added some good looking proven G5 stars ...
- Fleck has been struggling to find an OC and wouldn't count on his hiring skills but Greg Harbaugh will def be passing alot more this year .. new OC, new QB and alot more WR's could make for a very diff looking offense ..
- Gotta trust Rossi as a DC he gets it done every year .. should be getting way more talent in the door than he is.. they don't project as strong but I'd say lotta ways they can be worse than LY and still be very good ..
 
Great stuff @Bridge1 .

I kept up on transfers pretty well but totally missed Potts going to PSU! Interesting, and confusing.

Hmmmm

Good note on the WRs and changing offense (most likely).

I'm definitely looking into this play a bit more. Obviously respect the coach here, but with that schedule and some other moving parts I'd think they'll be happy with a bowl appearance.
 
yeah Potts lol whhyyyy!!! .. Nitneys talented RB depth cleared outta there so should for sure see action and dude is good maybe he gets a legit share of reps but yeah hope he got paid to make that move ..

I got Minny as very much a wildcard not dying to fade em but that hook on the RSW does loom a bit large .. even if they bag an upset could give it back @UNC or ILL... rugged end of the year w ILL, @PURD, @OSU, WISCO .. trip to West-Laf looks like a real sneaky down spot .. just too many landmines even if things click they could just bungle a tough game and not make it ..

The one thing to like is they draw some great spots vs the big boys ..
Mich w 4 easy home blowouts then B2B roadies @Neb @Minny.. massive game for the Gophs they're off ULL .. very dangerous spot ..
Trip to Iowa is never easy but Minny off a bye, Iowa off a trip to Wisco and long tough stretch heading into that one ..
Trip to columbus before Wisco looks bad for minny but Bucks before The Game .. think they've had plenty of let downs in that spot ..
Wisco at home in the finale, beat them twice and an OT loss last 3 years should be another brawl ..

That has em on my radar for a season play if the odds were juicy enough... 30-1 for conf is a little meh, might hedge down to 6-1 if I get lucky and they make the CCG?.... obvi +430 for the division is a sure thing pass lol ..
 
RSW:
*Central Michigan under 5.5 -120
*North Texas under 6.5 -120.
*East Carolina under 5.5 -150
*South Alabama under 8-130.
*MTSU under 6.5 +100
*San Jose St under 5.5 +120
*Minnesota under 7.5 -160
*UTEP over 5.5 -115
*Indiana under 3.5 +140
*Vanderbilt over 3.5 -150
*Cal over 4.5 -152

Added cal
 
steponaduck said:
RSW:
*Central Michigan under 5.5 -120
*North Texas under 6.5 -120.
*East Carolina under 5.5 -150
*South Alabama under 8-130.
*MTSU under 6.5 +100
*San Jose St under 5.5 +120
*Minnesota under 7.5 -160
*UTEP over 5.5 -115
*Indiana under 3.5 +140
*Vanderbilt over 3.5 -150
*Cal over 4.5 -152

Added cal
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Indiana should be horrible.

Last year, I know IU was a very popular RSW U. That was quite the emotional rollercoaster for many. That particular bet illustrated getting the best numbers as well. The win at East Lansing to get to 4 wins is still one of the weirdest games I've seen.
 
Totals finally trickin into BOL, Circa has had week 0/1 posted for a week or so now .. seein that UTEP/Jville deal around 52.5, tailin ya on that one think yer right ..

There's a couple on my radar aren't up yet idk if I'll be playing much I don't have the strongest beat on how the new clock rules will impact think obvi gunna be a general impact on every game and I'd assume the more 1st downs it takes to score the more the clock will need to bleed to get those points .. figure some coaches will see more benefit to grinding the clock earlier, ie take easy 1st downs instead of taking deep shots? .. think that would also have to impact the spread you get into clock bleed mode sooner and should be fewer scoring drives ..
 
Bridge1 said:
Totals finally trickin into BOL, Circa has had week 0/1 posted for a week or so now .. seein that UTEP/Jville deal around 52.5, tailin ya on that one think yer right ..

There's a couple on my radar aren't up yet idk if I'll be playing much I don't have the strongest beat on how the new clock rules will impact think obvi gunna be a general impact on every game and I'd assume the more 1st downs it takes to score the more the clock will need to bleed to get those points .. figure some coaches will see more benefit to grinding the clock earlier, ie take easy 1st downs instead of taking deep shots? .. think that would also have to impact the spread you get into clock bleed mode sooner and should be fewer scoring drives ..
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Yeah. Should be more incentive for blowouts to be less severe. Less plays. Less overall scoring when the game is decided. Example. 56-6 blowouts become 42-6. 63-21 games become 49-14. Etc
 
Bridge1 said:
Totals finally trickin into BOL, Circa has had week 0/1 posted for a week or so now .. seein that UTEP/Jville deal around 52.5, tailin ya on that one think yer right ..

There's a couple on my radar aren't up yet idk if I'll be playing much I don't have the strongest beat on how the new clock rules will impact think obvi gunna be a general impact on every game and I'd assume the more 1st downs it takes to score the more the clock will need to bleed to get those points .. figure some coaches will see more benefit to grinding the clock earlier, ie take easy 1st downs instead of taking deep shots? .. think that would also have to impact the spread you get into clock bleed mode sooner and should be fewer scoring drives ..
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Totals will be very interesting.

As anyone can see in the thread down the forum a bit regarding the rule change, I despise it. This simply adds more commercials. This is 15+ years or slowly eroding CFB.

Money talks.

Anyways, let's concentrate on the home team for myself (UM)... They generally snap the ball late in the clock compared to most teams. With their run tendencies+ lack of aggressive action versus the playclock + a very average 2 min drill... I'll be looking at some unders as we get into the formidable opponents.

They should average 40+ this season but once they get past the blowout games we'll see a lot of control and a running clock. Think of the Minnesota and Nebraska roadies as the first signs of this. Hopefully we'll see them put up 45-60 in the ooc games to perhaps inflate numbers slightly.

Just my first take here...
 
NCAA WEEK 0

Navy +21
San Jose State +30
UTEP+ J-St over 53.5
San Diego st -4 -107



NCAA Week 1:

Nebraska +7.5
UVA +29
Louisiana Tech +14.5
Sam Hou St +24
California -9
South Alabama +7.5


Futures Portfolio

RSW:
*Central Michigan under 5.5 -120
*North Texas under 6.5 -120.
*East Carolina under 5.5 -150
*South Alabama under 8-130.
*MTSU under 6.5 +100
*San Jose St under 5.5 +120
*Minnesota under 7.5 -160
*UTEP over 5.5 -115
*Indiana under 3.5 +140
*Vanderbilt over 3.5 -150
*Cal over 4.5 -152

1u UTEP 28-1 to win CUSA.
1u UTSA +360 and FAU +950 to win AAC
1u EMU +790 to win MAC
1u San Diego state +650 to win MWC
1.75u Washington +400 win P12


longshots to win their respective conference title

.33u navy 45/1
.125u cal 80/1
.416u NIU 22/1
 
thanks. Surprised you're not on UTEP +2 @ Jack St week 0/1. If they don't win that one, I'd say your UTEP O 5.5 is likely in trouble. Tailed that RSW by the way.
 
UTEP had the extraordinary ability LY to lose to NM and then turn around and beat Boise .. agree im not thrilled if they go to JVILLE and can't win that one, esp because I have them +2.5 .. it is a huge game for JVille and at home, I don't see them as being a total pushover this year but agree mike realllllly want to see a big win in that one 42-14 .. Miners got some good news too sounds like Tyrin Smith their top WR is officially back .. portaled to A&M and didn't work out so portaled back and sounds like he's G2G..
 
Bridge1 said:
UTEP had the extraordinary ability LY to lose to NM and then turn around and beat Boise .. agree im not thrilled if they go to JVILLE and can't win that one, esp because I have them +2.5 .. it is a huge game for JVille and at home, I don't see them as being a total pushover this year but agree mike realllllly want to see a big win in that one 42-14 .. Miners got some good news too sounds like Tyrin Smith their top WR is officially back .. portaled to A&M and didn't work out so portaled back and sounds like he's G2G..
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thanks, good news on the WR. I tailed you on the Over - don't bet many RSW as don't like to tie up the cash. My kingdom for a Credit account again LOL.

It's simplistic but if they can't win this one then I'd say the Over isn't very promising. didn't know you have them at 2.5 - probably won't play and will just hope they pull it out and have good start to the Over. GL and thanks
 
yeah grabbed em +2.5 not for big bucks so prob didn't post about it .. not pawing off the play but very reliant on Phil Steele's read on them, think they'll have alot of shots at wins this year .. good luck!
 
Bridge1 said:
yeah grabbed em +2.5 not for big bucks so prob didn't post about it .. not pawing off the play but very reliant on Phil Steele's read on them, think they'll have alot of shots at wins this year .. good luck!
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yeah your write up convinced me to tail. Have UTEP Over, Fresno Under 8.5, Mich Over and OSU Under the 10.5. that will probably do it for me.
 
NCAA WEEK 0

Navy +21
San Jose State +30
UTEP+ J-St over 53.5
San Diego st -4 -107



NCAA Week 1:

Nebraska +7.5
UVA +29
Louisiana Tech +14.5
Sam Hou St +24
California -9
South Alabama +7.5


Futures Portfolio

RSW:
*Central Michigan under 5.5 -120
*North Texas under 6.5 -120.
*East Carolina under 5.5 -150
*South Alabama under 8-130.
*MTSU under 6.5 +100
*San Jose St under 5.5 +120
*Minnesota under 7.5 -160
*UTEP over 5.5 -115
*Indiana under 3.5 +140
*Vanderbilt over 3.5 -150
*Cal over 4.5 -152
*BYU under 5.5 +113

1u UTEP 28-1 to win CUSA.
1u UTSA +360 and FAU +950 to win AAC
1u EMU +790 to win MAC
1u San Diego state +650 to win MWC
1.75u Washington +400 win P12


longshots to win their respective conference title

.33u navy 45/1
.125u cal 80/1
.416u NIU 22/1
 
Round robin Underdog potential week 1:

Nebraska
Georgia Tech
Akron
NIU
South Carolina
Wyoming
UTSA

Haven’t nailed down the teams yet (no ML’s out yet anyway). Usually hit 1 of these per season. Will birdcage in 4’s and 5s in addition to a 6-7 teamer.
 
steponaduck said:
Round robin Underdog potential week 1:

Nebraska
Georgia Tech
Akron
NIU
South Carolina
Wyoming
UTSA

Haven’t nailed down the teams yet (no ML’s out yet anyway). Usually hit 1 of these per season. Will birdcage in 4’s and 5s in addition to a 6-7 teamer.
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Very nice.

One of the very best threads we have each week during the season is our underdog thread.

We also run a season-long underdog contest going back to 2017.
 
Fan Duel and Caesars ML's up, took on a few fun parlays so far, lot of interesting stuff week 1 in the 'maybe an upset' department..

- GT def got a few of em w the Jacks in it .. I am starting to believe the hype a little bit on Ville but that's just a monster game for GT in ATL ..
- N.ILL .. Can't get down on Huskies ML yet anywhere but that'd be on my list .. think Toledo could be too this is their superbowl and has their NY6 dreams wrapped around it ..
- UTSA .. this almost seems like they're the fav, MONSTER game, Traylor talks alot about bringing the guys back for a big NY6 shot and this is a must win for that .. D sounds better.. should be better ... gotta be better ..... er... right?
- So Bama def made a few parlay cards ..
- Coastal .. hope could obvi die quick Teal Nation should be wayyy outmatched here but Chip's record at UCLA vs the scrappier G5'ers is abysmal and totally no show'd LY vs So Bama, shoulda lost that one too .. McCall was also pretty much born to pull an upset in this game ..
- Will VT no show vs Old Dom for like the 4th straight time lol idk Monarchs don't project well but I'm not expecting a sonic boom outta VT either and if Wells is startin again then yeah he's the last guy I'd ever want to put my money on..
- Don't like Fresno this yr but think this is a pretty lowwww scoring game and nothing looks like a sure thing w the Boilers, could def see them whiff the opener ..
- UTEP seems like a decent ML parlay juicer ..
- ULM, Akron, BG .. think there's a case for them wouldn't surprise me if all were closer to 50/50 balls in Q4 ..

Good luck duck!
 
Bridge1 said:
Fan Duel and Caesars ML's up, took on a few fun parlays so far, lot of interesting stuff week 1 in the 'maybe an upset' department..

- GT def got a few of em w the Jacks in it .. I am starting to believe the hype a little bit on Ville but that's just a monster game for GT in ATL ..
- N.ILL .. Can't get down on Huskies ML yet anywhere but that'd be on my list .. think Toledo could be too this is their superbowl and has their NY6 dreams wrapped around it ..
- UTSA .. this almost seems like they're the fav, MONSTER game, Traylor talks alot about bringing the guys back for a big NY6 shot and this is a must win for that .. D sounds better.. should be better ... gotta be better ..... er... right?
- So Bama def made a few parlay cards ..
- Coastal .. hope could obvi die quick Teal Nation should be wayyy outmatched here but Chip's record at UCLA vs the scrappier G5'ers is abysmal and totally no show'd LY vs So Bama, shoulda lost that one too .. McCall was also pretty much born to pull an upset in this game ..
- Will VT no show vs Old Dom for like the 4th straight time lol idk Monarchs don't project well but I'm not expecting a sonic boom outta VT either and if Wells is startin again then yeah he's the last guy I'd ever want to put my money on..
- Don't like Fresno this yr but think this is a pretty lowwww scoring game and nothing looks like a sure thing w the Boilers, could def see them whiff the opener ..
- UTEP seems like a decent ML parlay juicer ..
- ULM, Akron, BG .. think there's a case for them wouldn't surprise me if all were closer to 50/50 balls in Q4 ..

Good luck duck!
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Brother. Based on what you said over on “blankets” I assume you like No. Illinois +11 in week one?
 
That was on my 'wonder what that total will be' list .. Bill C put out his '4th n go' analysis Baylor highest Go Rate LY at 47% .. Saw that and went to UIW's season stats on their site .. might not be the exact way to calc this but I'll give it a go .. 35 4th dn conv att's / (29 punts + 11 FG's) = ... drumroll ... 47% go rate ....
also clock Baylor w a 67% conv rate (in conf) LY .. UIW 60% overall..

Hard to imagine Kinne isin't in the dice rollin mood after doing it all LY and now he's a massive dog that needs a little luck .. but even if not it does seem in general like 4th n go's are a bit contagious.. Baylor starts converting 4th dn's and puttin up 7's that pressure mounts in a hurry ..yeah hard to imagine this isin't a 60 dice game .. we'll see!!
 
NCAA WEEK 0

Navy +21
San Jose State +30
UTEP+ J-St over 53.5
San Diego st -4 -107
New Mexico State -7 -122



NCAA Week 1:

Nebraska +7.5
UVA +29
Louisiana Tech +14.5
Louisiana Tech +17 -120
Sam Hou St +24
California -9
South Alabama +7.5
Wyoming +14.5 -122



Futures Portfolio

RSW:
*Central Michigan under 5.5 -120
*North Texas under 6.5 -120.
*East Carolina under 5.5 -150
*South Alabama under 8-130.
*MTSU under 6.5 +100
*San Jose St under 5.5 +120
*Minnesota under 7.5 -160
*UTEP over 5.5 -115 BIG
*Indiana under 3.5 +140
*Vanderbilt over 3.5 -150
*Cal over 4.5 -152
*BYU under 5.5 +113

1u UTEP 22-1 to win CUSA.
1u UTSA +360 and FAU +950 to win AAC
1u EMU +790 to win MAC
1u San Diego state +650 to win MWC
1.75u Washington +400 win P12


longshots to win their respective conference title

.33u navy 45/1
.125u cal 80/1
.416u NIU 22/1
 
Tempted to join you on NM St - started at 10 I think. Any idea why money coming on UMass? Just seems off.
 
lvmike32 said:
Tempted to join you on NM St - started at 10 I think. Any idea why money coming on UMass? Just seems off.
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I see anything from -7.5 at bookmaker (B .5 at -122) which I took, all the way to still -9, -9.5 or -10 at mybookie.

tons of variance in this market which is unusal
 
Yeah you'd think money this early would be pretty sharp but UMass traveling cross country and having a RSW of 1.5 just dont see it. Probably join u at 7.
 
lvmike32 said:
Yeah you'd think money this early would be pretty sharp but UMass traveling cross country and having a RSW of 1.5 just dont see it. Probably join u at 7.
Click to expand...
no kidding. i dont see it either, just like the lsat few years new mexico state has controlled these games, and I cannot imagine
 
ECU under 6.5 at -190 Local casino has this.
NCAA WEEK 0

Navy +21
San Jose State +30
UTEP+ J-St over 53.5
San Diego st -4 -107
New Mexico State -7 -122



NCAA Week 1:

Nebraska +7.5
UVA +29
Louisiana Tech +14.5
Louisiana Tech +17 -120
Sam Hou St +24
California -9
South Alabama +7.5
Wyoming +14.5 -122



Futures Portfolio

RSW:
*Central Michigan under 5.5 -120
*North Texas under 6.5 -120.
*East Carolina under 5.5 -150
*East Carolina under 6.5 -190. BIG
*South Alabama under 8-130.
*MTSU under 6.5 +100
*San Jose St under 5.5 +120
*Minnesota under 7.5 -160
*UTEP over 5.5 -115 BIG
*Indiana under 3.5 +140
*Vanderbilt over 3.5 -150
*Cal over 4.5 -152
*BYU under 5.5 +113

1u UTEP 22-1 to win CUSA.
1u UTSA +360 and FAU +950 to win AAC
1u EMU +790 to win MAC
1u San Diego state +650 to win MWC
1.75u Washington +400 win P12


longshots to win their respective conference title

.33u navy 45/1
.125u cal 80/1
.416u NIU 22/1
 
steponaduck said:
Bookmaker allows that at -142. Steep price. Could do that + la tech ML. No way they lose given how they blew last years game against the panthers. I microcosm of their season I guess.
Click to expand...
Yeah checked that at BM. Agree too steep. Probably more likely to move back up but ill wait and see if 7 shows. I love buying 1/2 off key numbers. Thanks
 
updated the card a bit:



NCAA WEEK 0
Navy +21
San Jose State +30
UTEP+ J-St over 53.5
San Diego st -4 -107
New Mexico State -7 -122

NCAA Week 1:
Nebraska +7.5
UVA +29
Louisiana Tech +14.5
Louisiana Tech +17 -120
Sam Hou St +24
California -9
South Alabama +7.5
Wyoming +14.5 -122
Texas State + Baylor over 58.5
Colorado State +16.5


Futures Portfolio
RSW:
*Central Michigan under 5.5 -120
*North Texas under 6.5 -120.
*East Carolina under 5.5 -150
*East Carolina under 6.5 -190. BIG
*South Alabama under 8-130.
*MTSU under 6.5 +100
*San Jose St under 5.5 +120
*Minnesota under 7.5 -160
*UTEP over 5.5 -115 BIG
*Indiana under 3.5 +140
*Vanderbilt over 3.5 -150
*Cal over 4.5 -152
*BYU under 5.5 +113

1u UTEP 22-1 to win CUSA.
1u UTSA +360 to win AAC
1u FAU +950 to win AAC
1u EMU +790 to win MAC
1u San Diego state +650 to win MWC
1.75u Washington +400 win P12

longshots to win their respective conference title

.33u navy 45/1
.125u cal 80/1
.416u NIU 22/1
.125u Texas State 80/1
 
Gooooo Bobs!!! .. Gotta wait till I can get in on that but man this year goes epic fun if our sun money isin't dead late in the year, wooo hoo!!! .. good luck on CO.ST feels like more of a slug fest than expected .. orrrrr .. maybe its missiles criss crossin all game lol .. we'll see! good luck dude
 
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