NCAA FB Power Ratings

clowncar said:
I've looked at weather at a dome venue before ... you get in a groove checking forecasts .. it happens lol.
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I got your back for the motor city bowl(someone back in like our first year here posted the weather for that bowl, hence my earlier comment).
 
Schrute said:
What you mentioned is why box score review is incredible important. It is also important to analyze every situation and not overreact to one game. PRs are a great way to educate yourself about teams preseason and have something concrete. When BOL released their openers a few weeks back it was very easy to look at my numbers and determine what lines were way the fuck off. If I didn't have those numbers then it would have taken more time to figure it out and the line may have moved. Everything I bet at the BOL open has moved at least a TD my way. That is great...if I figure out something later then I can buy back part of the bet and hope for a middle. PRs aren't the be all, end all but they certainly have a place IMO
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Thanks Shrute. I agree on box score a lot. Especially for TO's etc.
 
Alan Tongue said:
I don't how many discussions I've had here with various people about beating the closing line, in particular Pinnacle, and here is further proof.

It's gotten to the point now where I know whether my bets win or lose by kickoff
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Very factual post here. The years I used a local, I'd grease him on the 12pm game that moved a couple of points before kickoff and I'd call in right at 12pm and play those MAC/B1G games and win the vast majority of them. It got tougher to do that as the day progressed, but the 12pm est games were practically gold.
 
One other thing about power ratings...

They're very helpful to have a baseline to compare to the line. For example perhaps I really like Vanderbilt +22 at home against UGA because UGA is coming off a Top 10 win with another game against a top 10 opponent on deck. If my line is Vandy +19 then I'm definitely playing. If my line is Vanderbilt +22 but I absolutely love the situation then I'll probably play it as well. If my line is Vanderbilt +27 then I'm probably not going to play that game. They may not necessarily dictate all of the bets I place but they are helpful with guiding the bets
 
lindetrain said:
Then once you have numbers for everything and the games are finished, use the closing market number for each game, compare it to the number you had, and adjust the ratings for each team accordingly based on both that and the result. Anyone who ignores the close and just bases their adjustments on the results is stubborn and likely to make plenty of bad numbers in future weeks.
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Most important point made in this thread, IMO. I've been using this process with my numbers for years. It has to be factored into the equation.
 
Do y'all rank your top team as 100, then every team after that is the number less than 100 that would be your spread for a matchup of those teams? For example: Ohio St is #1 and has a 100 rating. TCU #2 and rated 98, so on a neutral, your line is tOSU -2? I assume you have different HFA numbers for different teams? Seems like an exhaustive exercise for all 128 teams. I'm thinking of trying to make some for the SEC this year, just trying to get a handle on where to start
 
that's what I do gps. I pick the best team, make them 100, and then make a line between them and the second team. line is 1.5, team #2 is then a 98.5. repeat for the next 120 whatever teams. then go back through at least a few times adjusting. Team #20 is a 88, team #40 is a 78. Would I really make them -10? Adjust, adjust, adjust. Rinse, repeat. It's a good time.
 
cubsker said:
that's what I do gps. I pick the best team, make them 100, and then make a line between them and the second team. line is 1.5, team #2 is then a 98.5. repeat for the next 120 whatever teams. then go back through at least a few times adjusting. Team #20 is a 88, team #40 is a 78. Would I really make them -10? Adjust, adjust, adjust. Rinse, repeat. It's a good time.
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It's one hell of a way to spend your summer...
 
Gman please let the big boys have a discussion here and refrain from creating another embarrassment for yourself.
 
Formula of victories really shouldn't be abbreviated. Should be read aloud in its entirety, in the voice of James Earl Jones.
 
Guy has taken his share of abuse on the FOV stuff already. He posts here regularly and contributes. Maybe it's time to give him a second chance and let him post in relative peace? Been a dick to me before directly and I can forgive the guy, so why don't we try to be inclusive and give him a break?

Just a thought. I disagree with his take on power ratings amongst some other things but at least he has something to say, which we are lacking around here these days.
 
I'm all for second chances and CappingGenius hasn't given anyone any trouble in over 2 years. He posts plays daily and facilitates some gambling discussion
 
cubsker said:
ah, i wasn't around much. at least give him back the gman acct and the FOV tagline.
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sup fellas, getting caught up and will be more active in about a week or so when my final numbers are made. I'm a bit ahead of schedule but still not totally up to speed. Markets don't dictate me being done yet; I still can't get down for what I want for a few more weeks so it's no biggie. Very good thread...

In regards to this quote, I'm all for it just so it would cut his signature down to 1 line or out altogether instead of the current 12 or whatever it is...
 
I think pr's which lead to opening line guesses are important in every sport. Those with good pr's that know how to adjust accordingly will routinely beat the close , which leads to beating the market. Everyone has their own system or routine and if it works for them then stay with it, that's the fun in this...each having our opinion and others disagreeing which leads to great conversation, and learning. I love my line guesses in cfb/cbb and feel ok about that #, but I'm not good enough (yet) to base my total opinion on those numbers, for me it's a good starting point for openers and the rest is based on pre season work, live action that I watched during season, scheduling , situations, injuries, etc.

Let's ALL have a profitable season :shake:
 
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cubsker said:
that's what I do gps. I pick the best team, make them 100, and then make a line between them and the second team. line is 1.5, team #2 is then a 98.5. repeat for the next 120 whatever teams. then go back through at least a few times adjusting. Team #20 is a 88, team #40 is a 78. Would I really make them -10? Adjust, adjust, adjust. Rinse, repeat. It's a good time.
Click to expand...

I do the same but have found it easier to do conference by conference with each conference number 1 team a 100 rating,going through the conference,rank them,then use a sliding scale for the teams in conjunction to where their number falls in regards to the overall scale. It seems to speed up the initial starting process. Hope that makes sense.
 
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