NCAA FB Power Ratings

JML4481

JML4481

Pretty much a regular
Just finished our coaching our Legion Baseball season and ready to go through round 1 of my numbers. I know most probably have a few sets already,but 2 girls under 4,and a hectic schedule...well,life's priorities have taken place....I'm a bit behind. Anyone else out there still yet to make theirs?
 
just now finishing my presummer ones. You aren't far behind .. no interest in the sport on any of the forums right now ...
 
I've been interested in doing my own for years, but haven't made the effort yet. I feel like I can make an ordered list ok, but have no idea how to assign #s.
 
Done with all but about 17 teams. Still have to make adjustments for injuries/susp but I'll do that mid august
 
ive got a serious question. You guys who make PR's - have y'all seen significant jumps in winning % / ROI / increase in made $$$ since you've started making PR's for all schools? In other words has the juice been worth the squeeze? Just seems like a big process initially and then, I guess, you delete old players and add new ones.
 
Carolina Guy said:
ive got a serious question. You guys who make PR's - have y'all seen significant jumps in winning % / ROI / increase in made $$$ since you've started making PR's for all schools? In other words has the juice been worth the squeeze? Just seems like a big process initially and then, I guess, you delete old players and add new ones.
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Once you make the first set it's a lot less labor for upcoming seasons.

There has been a huge jump for me in early weeks and doing them over the summer has made me ready to hit openers which has been worth it. In years past I wouldn't have been able to spot the value myself and by the time I discovered it, the number would be long gone.

There hasn't been as much difference as the season progresses and honestly, if my number is off from the line in Week 4 and forward then it's much more likely I'm the incorrect one. IMO college football is more about PRs in Weeks 1-3 and more about situations/matchups Week 4 through the end.
 
Yea, that def makes sense when you talk about the first few weeks. Can be a guessing game for folks like me. Sorta like going off hunches and feelings.

So at some point in mid October when your numbers are way off .... instead of playing the game, you just scratch it off or go the opposite way?
 
Carolina Guy said:
Yea, that def makes sense when you talk about the first few weeks. Can be a guessing game for folks like me. Sorta like going off hunches and feelings.

So at some point in mid October when your numbers are way off .... instead of playing the game, you just scratch it off or go the opposite way?
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Well I try to adjust them weekly. Basically a Vegas number is not typically way off once you hit October. I'm not saying mine are way off either but I will say that if my number is 7 points away from the opening line in October I usually think I've missed something. I do think in October, the situational aspect is far greater.

For example look at Ole Miss/Arkansas last year. I know they had PC and a bye week between the Auburn and Arky games but it still fits a fairly typical narrative. There are better examples but this one just comes off the top of my head. Ole Miss is coming off a loss where they took the lead, lost their top WR and lost the lead all in the matter of one play. That essentially eliminated them from the CFB playoffs. I mean that is one hell of an emotional toll on a team. Then they go on the road to Arkansas in a game where the PR number would have likely been around a TD. The game opens at -2 and the public moves it to -3.5. Ole Miss lost by 30.
 
The increase in ROI depends on what outs you have. If you have access to the bad openers, making PRs is very beneficial. If your book just copies and you can't take advantage early, it's tough to have a huge edge.

I tracked every game where my number was 3+ points off last year, and I was shocked at how correlated the moves were to winning/losing. I won like 30 units on games that moved my way from hypothetical time of bet to close, and lost 30 on the games that moved against. Almost like I could fade myself when the number goes the other way and make more.
 
Schrute said:
Then they go on the road to Arkansas in a game where the PR number would have likely been around a TD. The game opens at -2 and the public moves it to -3.5. Ole Miss lost by 30.
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I <3 you Dwight but the public doesn't move a major college football game through 3. It was mostly just guys like you and I who made the number 4+ and had to lay anything under a FG regardless of situation.
 
lindetrain said:
I <3 you Dwight but the public doesn't move a major college football game through 3. It was mostly just guys like you and I who made the number 4+ and had to lay anything under a FG regardless of situation.
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Gotcha...makes sense.
 
lindetrain said:
The increase in ROI depends on what outs you have. If you have access to the bad openers, making PRs is very beneficial. If your book just copies and you can't take advantage early, it's tough to have a huge edge.

I tracked every game where my number was 3+ points off last year, and I was shocked at how correlated the moves were to winning/losing. I won like 30 units on games that moved my way from hypothetical time of bet to close, and lost 30 on the games that moved against. Almost like I could fade myself when the number goes the other way and make more.
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Very interesting...you gonna adjust your wagering this year based on that?
 
Schrute said:
Very interesting...you gonna adjust your wagering this year based on that?
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I dunno how I'm gonna handle it. Think I may just lock everything in when it gets to the number I'm looking for, and I'll get off if I see one that starts to go against me. I'd say a lot of the ones that went against were sharps on the other side so that is probably why.
 
You have to act so early to be able to bail most times though. That is the problem.

So let's say you are willing to bail when you have the worst of it ... how do you do it?

I mean .... say you made a bad number and they release Tulane +20 (for you Lind) and you take Duke -20 .... then it is Duke -17 on the board a little bit later .... How do you bail on the game? Risking middles is a tough business to be in when you are paying the juice to boot.

So I have had some wagers that were bad that I knew were bad (injury news that I am late to react to) but I just had to bite the bullet ... maybe hope there is a way to get off of it in live betting early or something like that .... but basically I am stuck with the bad bet.
 
I consider the PR more of a fundamental building block to the rest of the stuff. It is the basis point and then you adjust it based on all the other factors, matchup, situation, injuries, suspensions, history, etc. etc.

But hard to argue with the results of the power ratings and most successful players that I have come across use them in some fashion or another. Also for really quick ease they are very helpful. For instance, you haven't capped the other situations at all ...nothing but a pr ... and they release a bad line ... you can see it right away. It is very hard to recognize immediately if you do not use pr. You have to cap the game to fruition first. So it is a great tool as far as getting the best of it before you necessarily have done all of your work.
 
lindetrain said:
The increase in ROI depends on what outs you have. If you have access to the bad openers, making PRs is very beneficial. If your book just copies and you can't take advantage early, it's tough to have a huge edge.

I tracked every game where my number was 3+ points off last year, and I was shocked at how correlated the moves were to winning/losing. I won like 30 units on games that moved my way from hypothetical time of bet to close, and lost 30 on the games that moved against. Almost like I could fade myself when the number goes the other way and make more.
Click to expand...

I don't how many discussions I've had here with various people about beating the closing line, in particular Pinnacle, and here is further proof.

It's gotten to the point now where I know whether my bets win or lose by kickoff
 
clowncar said:
I consider the PR more of a fundamental building block to the rest of the stuff. It is the basis point and then you adjust it based on all the other factors, matchup, situation, injuries, suspensions, history, etc. etc.

But hard to argue with the results of the power ratings and most successful players that I have come across use them in some fashion or another. Also for really quick ease they are very helpful. For instance, you haven't capped the other situations at all ...nothing but a pr ... and they release a bad line ... you can see it right away. It is very hard to recognize immediately if you do not use pr. You have to cap the game to fruition first. So it is a great tool as far as getting the best of it before you necessarily have done all of your work.
Click to expand...

and if down correctly, they are objective, so you are not influenced by a team/coach/player/losing bet
 
clowncar said:
You have to act so early to be able to bail most times though. That is the problem.

So let's say you are willing to bail when you have the worst of it ... how do you do it?

I mean .... say you made a bad number and they release Tulane +20 (for you Lind) and you take Duke -20 .... then it is Duke -17 on the board a little bit later .... How do you bail on the game? Risking middles is a tough business to be in when you are paying the juice to boot.

So I have had some wagers that were bad that I knew were bad (injury news that I am late to react to) but I just had to bite the bullet ... maybe hope there is a way to get off of it in live betting early or something like that .... but basically I am stuck with the bad bet.
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That is certainly the issue. I do have the benefit of betting a bit smaller and staying off the radar with some of these books in town (Stations, Coasts) that don't take any sharp action and are slow to move, and being in front of a screen all day, I can see a move quickly and can maybe get off a bad side with minimal damage. There would still be plenty of cases where I would be middling myself a couple points, for sure...but if history is any indication, I would still be turning a decent profit on the second bet I'm making in each scenario and therefore saving myself money overall.

I guess the logic would be that if my number is pretty much spot on or the moves go my way 80% of the time, I must REALLY be missing something the other 20% of the time if I'm a few points off on a number AND it goes against me after I play it. So as hard as it is to believe, it seems keeping those bad numbers is actually more -EV than middling myself and/or eating juice.

Haven't quite decided how I'm going to handle it this year, but I'm not sure trying to win those games is really in my best interest.
 
lindetrain said:
I guess the logic would be that if my number is pretty much spot on or the moves go my way 80% of the time, I must REALLY be missing something the other 20% of the time if I'm a few points off on a number AND it goes against me after I play it.
Click to expand...

This was especially true when totals went against me early on last year. I had a few - Wyoming/Air Force over, BGSU/UMass under are two that come to mind - where I'd bet it, it would move 4-5 points against me, and the other side was the stone nuts.
 
I haven't checked the go against moves personally to see if I would have been better off fading myself afterwards. I could see where it is possible the negative EV is less on getting off and praying against a middle than to keep. I certainly know that I have a bad record when the move is against me and I certainly know that it is especially the case when I cannot figure out why to my personal satisfaction. Those moves against me, the ones I can't find much plausible reason for almost never win for the side I have. Again, I am reminded of Geno Smith on a weekday against UConn.
 
clowncar said:
I haven't checked the go against moves personally to see if I would have been better off fading myself afterwards. I could see where it is possible the negative EV is less on getting off and praying against a middle than to keep. I certainly know that I have a bad record when the move is against me and I certainly know that it is especially the case when I cannot figure out why to my personal satisfaction. Those moves against me, the ones I can't find much plausible reason for almost never win for the side I have. Again, I am reminded of Geno Smith on a weekday against UConn.
Click to expand...

Do you mean you "cannot figure out why to your personal satisfaction" before or after the game is played?

Last year in week 1 I bet Colorado vs CSU and was convinced I had a good number. Line moved against me, lost, a month later it was clear why the move and result came the way they did...CSU was a better football team than Colorado and my assessment was just dead wrong, pretty simple.

Week 2? last year. I bet AZ -pts @ UTSA, convinced I have a good number. Line moved against me, lost, at no point during the entire rest of the season was I able to explain the result or the line move. Market was straight up wrong and got bailed out.

So I agree with you in not being able to satisfactorily explain something to myself, but to me that can require a long time horizon to properly judge, not just the couple days after I place my bet but before the game is played.
 
Questions for power rating indicators..

What is the power rating for a team that scores 35 points per game avg?

What is the power rating for a team that scores 21 points per game?

What is the power rating for a team that wins all their games by 17 points or more regardless of how many points they score?
 
Alan Tongue said:
how long is a piece of string
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It depends. If its a string of spaghetti its about 11 inches. If its a ball of string for a kite its about 500 feet.
The question is... whats the power rating of the string before the kite breaks it from a big gust of wind...
LOL
 
It varies. 35 points per game is different playing a Big 12 schedule than a Big 10 schedule. A team that wins by 17 in the MAC is different than a team that wins by at least 17 in the SEC.

The bump off a win is determined by the rating of the team that was beaten, and by how much. If Ohio State beats Akron by 25, that is a worse win then beating Michigan State by 12. In this case of the former game, Ohio State’s PR may take a hit, while Akron’s may be increased as a result.
 
lindetrain said:
The increase in ROI depends on what outs you have. If you have access to the bad openers, making PRs is very beneficial. If your book just copies and you can't take advantage early, it's tough to have a huge edge.

I tracked every game where my number was 3+ points off last year, and I was shocked at how correlated the moves were to winning/losing. I won like 30 units on games that moved my way from hypothetical time of bet to close, and lost 30 on the games that moved against. Almost like I could fade myself when the number goes the other way and make more.
Click to expand...

For anyone that makes PR's and maintains them thru the season, that is almost beyond belief to be honest with you. Not doubting your math but still...30 units is quite a swing in either direction. If I understand you correctly, your lines are spot on.
 
horses said:
For anyone that makes PR's and maintains them thru the season, that is almost beyond belief to be honest with you. Not doubting your math but still...30 units is quite a swing in either direction. If I understand you correctly, your lines are spot on.
Click to expand...

I used BetOnline line history to do the tracking and if, at any point in the week, a side or total was 3+ points off my number, I considered it a play (all hypothetical). When I did totals the first six weeks this led to there being 50+ plays a week, and in total, I would've had over 600 plays in the season. So it would've been incredibly high volume, which may make the 30 unit numbers a bit more believable.

This is not saying my lines are spot on - not at all. It's simply saying that in games where my number is a bit off market, the moves typically end up being right more often than not. If I'm off and the move comes my way, my side is generally right, and if I'm off and it goes against, I'm generally wrong. Pretty interesting because I did not anticipate THAT much of a correlation.
 
sfbuckeye said:
I'm curious re: methodologies for developing PR's in the first place.

Any recommended resources?
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I have a different approach but the simplest method IMO would be taking Sagarin's final college football ratings from last season and adjusting teams up to about a TD either way to account for what they lose/return or who they bring in. There will be some mistakes, but I don't think I adjusted any teams more than a TD or so from my final rating last year, so you should be in the ballpark on most. Then once you have numbers for everything and the games are finished, use the closing market number for each game, compare it to the number you had, and adjust the ratings for each team accordingly based on both that and the result. Anyone who ignores the close and just bases their adjustments on the results is stubborn and likely to make plenty of bad numbers in future weeks.
 
Carolina Guy said:
ive got a serious question. You guys who make PR's - have y'all seen significant jumps in winning % / ROI / increase in made $$$ since you've started making PR's for all schools? In other words has the juice been worth the squeeze? Just seems like a big process initially and then, I guess, you delete old players and add new ones.
Click to expand...
Yes, worth tha time
 
The Capping Genius said:
Questions for power rating indicators..

What is the power rating for a team that scores 35 points per game avg?

What is the power rating for a team that scores 21 points per game?

What is the power rating for a team that wins all their games by 17 points or more regardless of how many points they score?
Click to expand...

Away field disadvantage? Waiting for that to get into ur post sometime soon
 
JML4481 said:
Just finished our coaching our Legion Baseball season and ready to go through round 1 of my numbers. I know most probably have a few sets already,but 2 girls under 4,and a hectic schedule...well,life's priorities have taken place....I'm a bit behind. Anyone else out there still yet to make theirs?
Click to expand...
Don't worry ur not tha only one, I'm way behind rite now also. Still a lot of time till tha season starts.
 
tru said:
Away field disadvantage? Waiting for that to get into ur post sometime soon
Click to expand...

Why?
Is that relevant?
What could possibly be any reason for away field disadvantage?
Are you thinking that the grass away is longer?
Or is the turf faster away to run on?
Is there a PR for short grass?
How about a PR for rain?
How about a PR for snow?
How about a PR for 2 feet of snow?
How about a PR for lightning?

Im sure you have some of those in UR indicators?
What exactly do you have as qualifiers for making up your PR's?
Curious...
 
Alan Tongue said:
It varies. 35 points per game is different playing a Big 12 schedule than a Big 10 schedule. A team that wins by 17 in the MAC is different than a team that wins by at least 17 in the SEC.

The bump off a win is determined by the rating of the team that was beaten, and by how much. If Ohio State beats Akron by 25, that is a worse win then beating Michigan State by 12. In this case of the former game, Ohio State’s PR may take a hit, while Akron’s may be increased as a result.
Click to expand...
Why? What if Ohio State coasted in the second half against Akron and played 3rd stringers for the last 20 minutes? How then is the PR re-done to accommodate that?
 
The Capping Genius said:
Why?
Is that relevant?
What could possibly be any reason for away field disadvantage?
Are you thinking that the grass away is longer?
Or is the turf faster away to run on?
Is there a PR for short grass?
How about a PR for rain?
How about a PR for snow?
How about a PR for 2 feet of snow?
How about a PR for lightning?

Im sure you have some of those in UR indicators?
What exactly do you have as qualifiers for making up your PR's?
Curious...
Click to expand...

JoeBren is a good source for weather ratings. He has weather scouts
 
The Capping Genius said:
Why? What if Ohio State coasted in the second half against Akron and played 3rd stringers for the last 20 minutes? How then is the PR re-done to accommodate that?
Click to expand...


What you mentioned is why box score review is incredible important. It is also important to analyze every situation and not overreact to one game. PRs are a great way to educate yourself about teams preseason and have something concrete. When BOL released their openers a few weeks back it was very easy to look at my numbers and determine what lines were way the fuck off. If I didn't have those numbers then it would have taken more time to figure it out and the line may have moved. Everything I bet at the BOL open has moved at least a TD my way. That is great...if I figure out something later then I can buy back part of the bet and hope for a middle. PRs aren't the be all, end all but they certainly have a place IMO
 
PR doesn't adjust for any of that .... the person with PR adjusts for it. Why do people think PR exists in a vacuum?
 
I've looked at weather at a dome venue before ... you get in a groove checking forecasts .. it happens lol.
 
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