Ncaa Cfb Week Five




SHSUHorn

SHSUHorn

Thief
All plays posted @ Covers and CTG last 5 years

NCAA CFB 2002-2003
Sides 118-88 +$7,028

NCAA CFB 2003-2004
Sides 124-103 +$7,542
Teasers/Pleasers/Parlays 1-6 +$1,000
Total 125-109 +$8,542

NCAA CFB 2004-2005
Sides 111-109 –$1,818
Player Props - 62-44 +$9,010
Teasers/Pleasers/Parlays - 7-9 +$460
Total 173-153 +$7,652

NCAA CFB 2005-2006
Sides 60-50 +$3,526
Player Props 40-17 +$7,937
Total 100-67 +$11,463

NCAA CFB 2006-2007
Sides 41-23 +$6,385
Player Props 26-17 +$2,070
Total 67-40 +$8,455

Had my best week of the young season this past Saturday so let’s hope the luck continues and the moose stays clear away.

TUESDAY

So. Miss –3 @ Central Florida ($400)

Both teams have played a common opponents with S. Miss losing @ Florida 34-7 and C. Fla losing @ Florida 42-0. But if you look further into the game S.Miss actually played Florida a lot closer then the final score as they went into halftime only trailing 14-7. C. Fla was down 34-0 at half and the scrubs were in pretty quick in that game.

S.Miss has since won its last two games including a convincing 20 point win over NCST. CF beat a D2 Villinova squad and lost to S.Fla at home. CF has won of the worst offenses in the country at 99th in total yards. To make matters worst statistically their defense is 117th in total yards with the worst pass defense in the entire country.

S.Miss has looked its best on offense in years so far. The main reason to that is the emergence of true freshman RB Damion Fletcher. Not a big name recruit coming out of HS he has fallen into S.Miss arms and they are extremely pleased what he has done this year. 382 yards (6.1 ypc) and 5 TDs and two of his three games have been against pretty good defenses in Florida and NCState.

S.Miss has always been known to have a very conservative boring offense that relied heavily on a lot play action passes. But with no running game teams went after the QB and didn’t need to crowd the box with defenders. Now that teams have to respect Fletcher it has opened up the passing game and S.Miss is showing good balance on offense for the first time in years.

Fletcher has given this team a much needed spark on offense and with CF not being able to do much on offense or defense I’ll take S.Miss to cover by more then a FG.

I've locked in on 12 other plays so more to follow shortly...
 
We're both up awful late, dude.
smoke.gif


I agree with your bet here, but think you should go $500 instead. I think this one wins easily.
 
horn,

again congratulations on your week four plays...you are really starting to kick some ass here bud...GL this week...
 
I can get So. Miss at -4.5. I think everyone has stated to play them no matter the spread. That looks like a good deal to me.
 
Jeremy Young OVER 13 Pass Completions (-160) ($400)

Damion Fletcher + Conrad Chanove -24.5 Rushing Yards vs Jason Peters + Kevin Smith (-185) ($500)

Got in on the running prop late so I'm paying the juice but its free money. No way they get outrushed.
 
mbarnett, First welcome to the forum. Glad to have another orangeblood over here and I just got your email. I play all my props at either sportsbook.com or olympic.
 
THURSDAY

BYU @ TCU –4 (-115) ($350)

A big conference opener for both teams vying for the MWC title. Big advantage to TCU here is the fact they have been well rested waiting at home where they are 31-4 this decade for 12 days while BYU is having to travel to Ft. Worth with only 5 days to prepare and rest. TCU is playing great football right now and that’s despite missing its two stud RBs Lonta Hobbs and Robert Merrill. Both have practiced this week but Patterson has been tight lipped on their progress but both are expected not to play again.

Gary Patterson has officially thrown his name in the hat of non-BCS coaches that are going to be a hot commodity by the big name schools (Meyer, Hawkins, Fran, etc). TCU should be well prepared to face the BYU passing attack after facing two pass happy offenses in Baylor and TT and only allowing 1 passing TD this year. The defensive performance vs TT was very impressive as they held TT without a TD the first time that’s happened since 2000.

If you’re not a believer in Patterson who is using Texas talent that was passed up by most Big 12 schools look at these numbers:

TCU in its last 6 games dating back to last year is only giving up 34.2 ypg on the ground. They currently have the 3rd best run defense in the country. They currently have the 6th best scoring defense in the country at 7.7 ppg. You don’t win ball games without a great defense.

2nd half adjustments? TCU is outscoring opponents 46-3 in the second half this year and dating back to last year 209-89 in the second half and only gave up 31 4th quarter points.

Special Teams? 3rd nationally in KO returns giving them great field position and a kicker who is a Lou Groza candidate hitting 29-30 FGs in his career.

Red Zone? TCU is 12-12 for trips inside the red zone.

This game will probably be close as these teams are evenly matched. TCU in 18 of its last 39 games has been decided by 7 or less. Patterson is 15-3 in those ball games.

They led the nation in turnover margin last year and are off to a good start again this year at +4.

Patterson and TCU have a chance to be a big time BCS buster this year and I feel they repeat going undefeated. At home where they have finally been selling out the games. TCU covers the 4.
 
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Auburn –13 @ South Carolina ($500)

Still scratching my head when this line was released. Are they really only basing this line off last week where SC looked great against a horrible Fla Atlantic squad? Did we forget these guys almost lost to Wofford the week before and got shut out by Georgia?

The biggest mismatch in the game is still going to be SC very shaky OL vs Auburn’s menacing front. To make matters worst SC lost a starting G in last week’s game further weakening the position.

The status on starting RB Cory Boyd hurts the offense as well. Boyd has promised he will play, even at less than full speed, but Spurrier is less certain. “He’s still gimpy,” Spurrier said. “He’s not 100%. Those ankles take a while. Whether or not he can play, we’ll just have to wait and see. I’m sure he’ll suit up, but if he’s like he was today, I don’t see how he can play much.”

With a mediocre OL that just lost a starter and a starting RB gimpy a lot will fall on the shoulders of new SC QB Slyville Newton who is making his third start. I keep hearing from the SC side and Spurrier on how great the converted WR is looking at QB. His first start vs Wofford he didn’t look to great but vs Fla Atlantic he had an awesome game but once again were talking Florida Atlantic not Auburn. They were ranked 90th on offense before last week’s padding of the stats game.

On Auburn’s injury front according to head coach Tommy Tuberville, the three players that missed the Buffalo game with minor injuries are all close to or at 100 percent for the South Carolina game. Tuberville expects tailback Kenny Irons, linebacker Karibi Dede and cornerback Jonathan Wilhite to play.

Auburn comes into this game with the 3rd ranked scoring defense in the country giving up around 6 ppg. Auburn is going to roll big in this game as they have already made remarks about making this a statement game since all of the voter’s eyes will be on them.
 
I'm on the same side with the TCU game and like the Auburn play as well. It might be a 1st half play for me - still looking into it. I just don't see USC scoring much against that Auburn D. Only thing that scares me is the line - should be around -17 easily.

Good Luck!

:shake:
 
Horn - nice writeups on both Auburn and Tcu. I think SC is in big trouble on the LOS in that matchup. TCU's defense really has been impressive and they are obviously very well coached. I was impressed that they could hold down TT like they did.
 
No way kenny irons sits this out, he use to play at sc and left cuz he didnt get the rock enough
 
FRIDAY

Rutgers –3 @ South Florida ($350)

This is the big chance for Rutgers to shine on national TV. Lost in the Big East limelight of WVU and Louisville Rutgers can prove that the Big East isn’t a two team conference. While SFL will pose a good contest on offense they are still a one man team dependent on freshman QB Matt Grothe. Grothe has been pretty good this year but is still prone to the freshman mistakes that’s evident by his 6 INTs. With no running attack behind him Grothe will have a tough task this week going up against the #4 defense in the country and a unit that has already picked off 10 passes.

Rutgers is having growing pains at QB but still the rushing attack of Rice and Leonard have led the way. Rice is the 4th leading rusher in the country and if SFL can contain him they will win the game but that’s easier said then done.

Both teams seem one dimensional on offense and while Rice has gotten all the early headlines for Rutgers it’s the defense that has led them to the unbeaten record so far. I’ll take Rutgers with only having to cover a FG.
 
looks familiar to me horn bol on all since i'm afraid to pul the trigger on tcu....some folks here made me change my mind in early sunday chat
 
Michigan –7 (-120) @ Minnesota ($400)

The Gophers are 0-10 vs Michigan at the Metrodome and will have to face a Michigan defense that has the best rush defense in the country. Not good for a Minnesota team that does most of its damage on the ground. While Minny has looked good in creaming pansies Temple and Kent St. they have lost to Purdue and were beaten soundly by Cal. If Michigan can shut down the Badger rushing attack led by PJ Hill and embarrass Brady Quinn and ND they will have no problems in doing the same here vs the Gophers.

Kansas @ Nebraska –19 ($500)

Huge revenge game for the much improved Huskers, as they were embarrassed last year by Kansas 40-15. I’m still scratching my head on what the hell Nebraska was trying to do on offense vs USC. Hell even Pete Carroll said in the press conference he was surprised that Nebraska kept trying to run the ball. Reason being is Zac Taylor behind an OL that has been brilliant in pass protection is completing 75% and 8 TDs to only 2 picks.

Adam Barrman started last week in Kansas win 14-7 vs SFL and its still undecided if he will go or if Meier is healthy again. Either way Nebraska in Lincoln is probably one of the toughest venues to play in and don’t think the whipping they got last year isn’t on the back of their minds. Huskers roll here.

GT +10 @ VT ($350)

Both teams have outstanding defenses so far in the early season so I expect a low scoring ugly defensive game. Reggie Ball has always seemed to screw up in big games so hopefully the presence of what I feel is the best player in college football Calvin Johnson neutralizes that. VT did suspend its best DL but what will hurt more was the suspension of its 2nd leading WR. VT is already young on offense and struggled last week somewhat vs Cincy. Their top leading WR Clowney was out for that game and I’m getting conflicting reports that he may be out for this game as well. That would be a huge blow to have their top 2 wideouts out for this game.

Regardless this game should be a defensive struggle so I’ll take the double-digit points.
 
Why is Callahan trying to run the ball so much, Horn? I've been trying to figure that out myself. He's done it in every game this year. He's such a dumb fuck!

That being said, I'm on Nebraska -20 myself. Kansas sucks!
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SoonerBS said:
Why is Callahan trying to run the ball so much, Horn? I've been trying to figure that out myself. He's done it in every game this year. He's such a dumb fuck!

That being said, I'm on Nebraska -20 myself. Kansas sucks!
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Click to expand...

Other than against USC, Nebraska has run the ball very well. Lucky last week had 10 carries for 155 yards. Callahan's plan against USC was to keep it close until the 4th quarter and try to get lucky. It really wasnt that farfetched. If Lucky doesn't fumble and if we intercept the pass at the beginning of the second half, that was a 2 TD swing and we're right in it. That being said, I agree that we should have and could have thrown quite a bit more.
 
It seemed he was calling alot of sweeps and runs to the outside which is basically a no-no going against that type of speed on defense. If he calls that kind of game vs Texas they'll get beat easily. He definitley should put the ball in Taylor's hand more even though his system may call for a run on that particular play.

The offensive gameplan for Texas vs OU though will tell me which side to play when the Horns come to Lincoln. If the playcalling is like it was vs tOSU I will take Nebraska.
 
SHSUHorn said:
It seemed he was calling alot of sweeps and runs to the outside which is basically a no-no going against that type of speed on defense. If he calls that kind of game vs Texas they'll get beat easily. He definitley should put the ball in Taylor's hand more even though his system may call for a run on that particular play.

The offensive gameplan for Texas vs OU though will tell me which side to play when the Horns come to Lincoln. If the playcalling is like it was vs tOSU I will take Nebraska.
Click to expand...

Agreed Horn, too many telegraphed sweeps against a fast defense. We did have a little luck with the sweep early but it was too obvious when it was coming. I know we will be throwing a lot more against the Horns. You coming to Lincoln for the game? Let me know if so.
 
Good luck this weekend Horn, although it looks like we are opposite eachother tonight. Hey, Pinny came out with the added games & has the Horns favored by 45 over SHSU. I think even with 2nd & 3rd team playing a lot, they can cover 45. I played it already, wanna hear your thoughts!
 
SHSU @ Texas-45 ($1500)

Ah my two favorite schools going to battle this weekend. I went to SHSU my first two years and actually had a ton of football players in my fraternity. I have never bet 10 units on any play. If I was a tout, Brandon Lang, Wayne Root,or whoever this would be the damn game of the year. I know the line is at 51 at pinny and 49 at betus and I would take this all the way up to 60. Texas has already destroyed UNT and Rice both schools in Texas that would probably beat SHSU by 30-40 points. Fellas they were losing to SMU 35-0 at halftime two weeks ago. Their isn't a single player on this roster that would make the third team of Texas probably. Unload on this play!

USC -15.5 @WSU ($400)

If there is one positionat USC they can afford to lose a player at its WR. While Jarrett is a bad ass they've got plenty of horses behind him ready to take their turn to shine. Patrick Turner was the #1 WR in the country coming out of HS and he replaces Jarrett. USC has finally found its RB in Emmanuel Moody who had 130 yards last week. This game will be covered by USC because of the defense which is ranked 6th in the country. They've only allowed 10 ipoints combined in the first 3 quarters of all its games.
 
Eastern Illinois @ Hawaii -28 ($500)

Another Div 1AA line I couldn't believe when I saw these released.First of course is the journey to Hawaii which has always been unpleasent for visitors. E. Illinios are a rushing team but they will be forced to throw vs Hawaii passing attack that will be moving the ball at will.

Georgia -17 @ Ole Miss ($350)

Ole Miss has lost 3 games in a row and all of them have been by 17 points or more. There is no word on who the QB will be for Georgia but its probably pretty obvious who it will be when Joe Cox came in and led the Bulldogs to two late scores to get the win. Cox was 10-13 against a CU defense that had shut down their running game. Its not like Georgia will need the QB to win the game. They should just copy Wake Forest gameplan for last week where they only threw the ball 5 times but ran it 53 times for 240 yards. Opponsing QBs are also completing 67% of their passes against the Rebels with no picks.

Georgia will score enough points with Cox in at QB and the defense will take care of the rest. Georgia is ranked 6th in scoring defense only giving up 6.3 ppg.
 
Alabama @ Florida -13 ($500)

Another big revenge game as Florida was embarrased last year 31-3 by the Tide. Bama now travels to the swap straight off an emotional double OT loss to the piggies. What the hell has happened to Kenny Darby? He couldn't do shit vs Arkie last week and is averaging 3 ypc on 77 attempts. Darby isn't all to blame as the Bama OL has come under fire of late and needs to step up for Darby.

It won't be an easy task vs this Gator defense. While everyone loves to talk about Urban Meyer and his 30 ppg offense led by Chris Leak don't forget about the defense. The Gators are ranked eighth nationally in both total and scoring defense, surrendering only 8.5 ppg and 229.3 total ypg.
 
Cal -9 @ OSU ($450)

Cal is finally looking like the team everyone expected after getting blown out by Tennessee. They scored 40 points or more in its last 3 games including two impressive wins vs ASU and Minnesota. Oregon St. hasn't played anyone worth a shit but Boise and they got crushed by 4 TDs. I'm still scratching my head on this line.
 
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Deshawn Wynn +5 Rushing Yards vs Kenny Darby (-160) ($500)

Dallas Baker UNDER 6 Receptions (-165) ($400)

Calvin Johnson -25.5 Receiving Yards vs David Clowney (-160) ($500)

Chad Henne UNDER 18 Pass Completions (-165) ($350)

Jeff Smardzjia -10.5 Receiving Yards vs Dorien Bryant (+105) ($300)

Hart/Grady -26.5 Rushing Yards vs Pinnix/Daniels (-150) ($400)

Antonio Pittman -15 Rushing Yards vs Albert Young (-160) ($400)

Tedd Ginn UNDER 5 Receptions (-175) ($300)

Johnathon Stewert -16 Rushing Yards vs Ryan Torain (-140) ($500)
 
Jesus that Texas game is at -54 now. Wow don't ever remember a spread that large before.

Poor SHSU is gonna get creamed but they will make more money off this game then they will of two seasons worth of football. Great for the school.
 
SHSUHorn said:
Jesus that Texas game is at -54 now. Wow don't ever remember a spread that large before.

Poor SHSU is gonna get creamed but they will make more money off this game then they will of two seasons worth of football. Great for the school.
Click to expand...

I only managed 3 units before I got tired of the number skyrocketing. -49.

...I'm not real worried about his particular bet.

heh.

GL this weekend, bro.
 
tx -52.5

I'm laying on TX too at -52.5, but didn't have the guts to go very big at that line given Mack's propensity to shut things down completely once he hits 50. Plus, I think Mack's aware that a huge score will lead to criticism since SHSU is not D1.

I would have gone huge too if I'd gotten 45. I'm guessing 65-3.
 
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