NBL Round 4 (Australian Basketball)




bad,

are you the one from the menstennisforum.com? i heard that you were good in tennis and aussie sports. if you don't mind me asking, can you create a thread where you just post your pick one after another? so we can get yours by email once we subscribe to your thread.

just joined this forum seeing your name here if you are the same guy from tennisforum... lol

good luck
 
seanrain said:
bad,

are you the one from the menstennisforum.com? i heard that you were good in tennis and aussie sports. if you don't mind me asking, can you create a thread where you just post your pick one after another? so we can get yours by email once we subscribe to your thread.

just joined this forum seeing your name here if you are the same guy from tennisforum... lol

good luck
Click to expand...
I'm the same :shake:

Though as you can see, my posted record in tennis here is like poison :confused:

I'm not really a fan of those individual threads bro
 
One game on tonight and it is going to be an old fashioned track meet:

Brisbane Bullets v Townsville Crocs 'OVER" 211.5 - (-110) (3.5 units)


good luck :shake:
 
bad gambler said:
One game on tonight and it is going to be an old fashioned track meet:

Brisbane Bullets v Townsville Crocs 'OVER" 211.5 - (-110) (3.5 units)


good luck :shake:
Click to expand...

Fuck it, these two teams especially the Crocs don't know the concept of defense - they attempt to play man on man and then when it fails, as it usually does they get hit on transition by the opposition team. CJ is the best in the business in trnasition and Ebi isn't a slouch either. Expecting both to light it up tonight as a result.

Making this a 4 units play :shake:
 
Just to correct the above posts - this one is being played on Wednesday night Aus time, therefore a crazy hour like 1 or 2am Wednesday in the states depending on where you are.

Tempted to raise another unit....
 
BG, I am with you BIG on this one. Been waiting a while for these two teams to match up. It's like Phoenix and Toronto, aussie version.

GL
 
Brisbane wins 123-104

Watching that second half explosion I felt I had robbed a bank, this was as close to stealing money as it gets :wacka wacka::wacka wacka::wacka wacka::wacka wacka:



:smiley_acbe:
 
Tantric said:
BG, I am with you BIG on this one. Been waiting a while for these two teams to match up. It's like Phoenix and Toronto, aussie version.

GL
Click to expand...
Actually was a bit like Phoenix v Sonics IMO with Bell & Rayman bombing away from the arc lol money;

Congrats on your hit as well, hope to see you around here and share your thoughts on NBL games, getting very lonely for me at the moment :cheers:
 
Hey BG, a bunch of us aussies are usually on the covers.com site under "Other" where you will find NBL degenerates like me. I will pop in here to check out your tips. They are very solid.
 
Tantric said:
Hey BG, a bunch of us aussies are usually on the covers.com site under "Other" where you will find NBL degenerates like me. I will pop in here to check out your tips. They are very solid.
Click to expand...
Ah ok, I don't bother with that site anymore, haven't gone there for a couple of years now - bit of a long story but I got banned from covers many moons ago because of certain idiotic mods over there, accusing me of doing things I didn't do but that is all in the past.

The ironic thing about it all now is that a couple of them visit the site I am a moderator on and ask me for input on tennis matchups violin

:shake:
 
Anyway lets get down to business...

Perth Wildcats to beat NZ Breakers - (-140) (4 units)

Cats are on top of the league and are still undefeated this season through 4 games. Their front court have looked menacing and this is where they are going to win it tonight, frankly they will have it their own way on the boards and in the paint, just don't see how Breakers will be able to shutdown the points flow. Crawford looks unlikely to suit up, but don't think it will make much a difference. Breakers also offer little from the bench as well so look for them to fade similar to their performance against the Kings in the second half.

This is the Cats first game of a 4 game road swing with the other 3 involving the 3 QLD teams hence there is no doubt they will be gunning hard for the W here given I can see them easily drop the reamining 3 - sunshine coast is probably the toughest road trip in the NBL these days.

I've taken only the ML as insurance and also because I intend to make a play in the late game as well.

good luck
 
Wildcats is definitely the better team. The loss of Crawford is a shame but I'll have a medium play on the Wildcats. I expect the Breakers will come out firing after their second half fade against the Kings but will not be able to stay with the Cats at the end. Also going to play over 205 judging by the way Cats have been playing.

GL BD
 
36-34 to the Breakers as I post

These guys seem to have turned a corner with the influence of the 2 American imports they have. Getting quite a bit of on-air-sports-news time that hasnt been seen (to this degree) in previous seasons.

now 39-38 Perth

I'm still not into betting NBL yet, but I think there might be a bit of value in the Breaks when they play in Oz.
 
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BC, just be careful when Breakers play on the mainland. They tend to struggle. Not sure how they will perform with these two imports but historically they have struggled terribly.
 
Adding:

Singapore Slingers v Wollongong Hawks "OVER 203.5" - (-110) (4 units)

That famous Joyce D seems to have taken a back seat a lot of last season and start of this season - one reason has been the arrival of Groves to the Hawks who your natural shooter and likes to play the uptempo game. Slingers at home have shown they can put up a score at home averaging 108PPG through 3 games in Singapore. Hawks are currently averaging 107PPG on the road through 2 games this season, therefore the right side here is overs IMO regardless of the fact that we are using limited game data.

I've also got a system in place for NBL totals whereby whenever there are two games on one night back to back and IF the first game goes "UNDER", my numbers over the past three years shows that the "OVER" hits at an incredible 73.7% of the time (this also includes the scenario where by if there are more than the 1 late game - i.e. play the "OVER" in all games following an early game if applicable).

good luck :shake:
 
bad gambler said:
Adding:

Singapore Slingers v Wollongong Hawks "OVER 203.5" - (-110) (4 units)

That famous Joyce D seems to have taken a back seat a lot of last season and start of this season - one reason has been the arrival of Groves to the Hawks who your natural shooter and likes to play the uptempo game. Slingers at home have shown they can put up a score at home averaging 108PPG through 3 games in Singapore. Hawks are currently averaging 107PPG on the road through 2 games this season, therefore the right side here is overs IMO regardless of the fact that we are using limited game data.

I've also got a system in place for NBL totals whereby whenever there are two games on one night back to back and IF the first game goes "UNDER", my numbers over the past three years shows that the "OVER" hits at an incredible 73.7% of the time (this also includes the scenario where by if there are more than the 1 late game - i.e. play the "OVER" in all games following an early game if applicable).

good luck :shake:
Click to expand...

Did this game start yet?
 
bad gambler said:
Adding:

Singapore Slingers v Wollongong Hawks "OVER 203.5" - (-110) (4 units)
Click to expand...

Geez the top scorers from both teams went complete MIA tonight, didn't give this one a chance as a result.

Lost violin
 
Probably only the one for me tonight..

Sydney Kings to cover -2 v Townsville Crocs - (-110) (3 units)

Going with the revenge angle tonight up north, got severe doubts on both Crossy and Smith's ability to back up for tomorrow though. Sneaking suspicion Goorj will go hell for leather tonight and treat tomorrow as a "free hit" against the Snakes.

Opening game Crocs shot the lights out from the perimter but has shown sicne that they are staying true to form as the perennial hot and cold team of the league. Appreciate the fact that it is always tough to get the W in the swamp therefore just sticking to a standard play tonight.

good luck :shake:
 
Bloody Kings faded like a cheap foreign suit. I heard Worthington was injured during the game and sat out the crucial stage of the match. Becareful when Kings play Cairns. Also heard from Covers boys that Cattalini is injured.
 
bad gambler said:
Probably only the one for me tonight..

Sydney Kings to cover -2 v Townsville Crocs - (-110) (3 units)
Click to expand...

Kings managed to blow a 7 point lead in the last 2:30min violin

Bet lost :spank:
 
Tantric said:
Bloody Kings faded like a cheap foreign suit. I heard Worthington was injured during the game and sat out the crucial stage of the match. Becareful when Kings play Cairns. Also heard from Covers boys that Cattalini is injured.
Click to expand...

Yeah mate, Wortho pulled a hammy at the beginning of the second half which didn't help my cause.

I heard about Cat - he has had ongoing problems with his right achillies for the past 2 years and apparently it flared about in the Snakes' last game against the Crocs. To be honest I'm probably going to avoid that game anyway :shake:
 
Saturday night truly is "Super" Saturday with an unprecedented 4 games on at the same time.....wow

Lets roll...

West Sydney Razorbacks to beat NZ Breakers - (+110) (3 units)

With Bailey finally back and Ya Ya having already spent some time on court against the Slingers and will be better for the run, the Pigs finally look to have their full roster back. From all reports of pre season action Bailey can flat out ball but ultimately this bet comes down to one thing: Breakers should never be laying points on the road against anyone this season. I've now watched a couple of their games and they are truly awful, apart from their two imports they offer little in offense and their bench is non existant. This one therefore becomes a bet based on principle, got to exploit the mispricing by the books. Pigs won't lay down at home like they have done thus far on the road.

In the corresponding game last season, the Pigs recorded their record win in the NBL with a 50 point thrashing.

Sth Dragons v Wollongong Hawks "OVER" 204.5 - (-110) (4 units)

This one is my bet of the night, with the new franchise finally returning home and playing their first game in front of their new fans at Vodafone. There is an expected crowd of 6,000 for tonight (big for NBL standards) there is no way they will not want to put on a track meet for the fans. That famous Joyce D is a thing of the past with the Hawks very comfortable these days to engage in a shootout with opposing teams.

Look for Groves to bounce back after his shocker in Singapore, offensively he is absolute quality, I have in my top 3 in the league. He is too good a player not to get back on track and have his usual 30+ PPG.

Might have one more add in the Taipans v Kings game. Cat is definitely playing and Worthington will be out for between 4-6 weeks.

good luck
 
BG, you are quite generous with the 50pts bashing. Both are pretty average teams but I tend to agree that the Pigs will be highly motivated to have a big one at home. Probably no play for me in this game.

I really like the Dragons over. They can't defend for shit and being at home, they should be able to put on some decent points. Don't think Heal will make an impact but I hope so. Hopefully the Gond don't decide to play defence. They haven't done so thus far, so let's hope they don't start now.

With you on the over. Well done on your huge bet in netball.
 
Tantric - I think Heal's role this season is not so much on offense but general management of the team on the court and also to give the squad some experience because essentially they are all pretty raw.

Thanks mate, that Netball bet was sweet took a while for the Ferns to pull away in the end though. Good luck with your plays tonight :shake:
 
Decided to pull the trigger in the game at the snake pit:

Taipans to cover -2 v Kings - (-110) (2.5 units)

Never easy for me to fade my team, but the way the Kings faded in the final 4 minutes last night does not bode well for them tonight, especially given they are without Wortho and have a few niggling injury concerns with players such as Hinder (back), Smith (knee), Crosswhite (ankle) all still not 100% fit. Also add to that the ball handling woes of butter fingers Kendal, there simply is going to be too much reliance on EJ, Sheridan, Barlow and Elliot to get it done tonight against a team who are starting to create a fortress at home.

Going relatively small on this given the Snakes seem to have a mental block when they play the Kings both home and away, but sharp money is on the Snakes to get the W.

good luck :shake:
 
Locking in tomorrow game early, had marked this one down last round itself and is a max play for me, the first of the NBL season for me.

Brisbane Bullets to cover -5.5 v Perth Wildcats - (-110) (5 units)

Comments to come tomorrow, but for those interested I very strongly recommend you jump on this one right now, the line will only be heading in one direction come tip off.

Starts in 18 hours time


good luck :shake:
 
bad gambler said:

Brisbane Bullets to cover -5.5 v Perth Wildcats - (-110) (5 units)
Click to expand...
Paul Rogers will miss today's game as he is in Perth as there has been some kind of complication with his fiancee's preganancy. This is a huge blow for the leaders as they now rely on Justin Brown to fill the void in the starting five. As well as the Cats have started this season, I question how "deep" their squad really is, as outside Crawford the talent is fairly thin. Bullets are starting to build some ominous momentum and will be close to impossible to beat in Brisbane this year, they also get back the services of vetran Bradtke for this one who will stiffen them up on the boards and help them counter the Cats' strong frontcourt.

Classic letdown spot for the league leaders after going through in 5-0 to start the season.

Will also be taking the Bullets to win by 10.5+ when the lines come out.
 
bad gambler said:

Brisbane Bullets to cover -5.5 v Perth Wildcats - (-110) (5 units)
Click to expand...
That's up there with one of my worst dead beat losses in a while, complete meltdown by the Bullets when leading by double digits at home against an undermaned Cats team.

Another example of why the bookies have got the outright completely wrong - Bullets should not be anway where near the top line of betting regardless of the talent in the squad. violin
:moose:
 
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