NBAX 2016

[hugh613]

YTD: 15-12, +1.20

Thursday:

10/13/2016 7:35 PM NBA Preseason Basketball 706 Brooklyn Nets* Under 99½ -110 vs Boston Celtics *2 UNITS*

*Just spinning my wheels at this point...

Anyways, this is me being stubborn (in the words of Harley Quinn: "I'm just forewarning you...")

These are the Nets offensive numbers so far during the preseason:

vs. Detroit: 101 points, FG 44%, 78 shots
vs. New York: 98 points, FG 38%, 75 shots
vs. Miami: 100 points, FG 39%, 82 shots

In other words, through three games, they've averaged 99.7 points per game, 78.3 field goal attempts per game, while shooting 40.9%. By way of comparison, the league average last season was 102.7 points per game, 84.6 field goal attempts per game, and a field goal percentage of 45.2%. Don't think you really have to be a sabermetrician to realize something's not right with Brooklyn's numbers...

The explanation, of course, are stat lines that are way out of whack: 41% from 3 against the Pistons, 42 free throw attempts against the Knicks, and 42% from 3 against the Heat (which, of course, is how they managed to score 26 points within the space of six minutes between the end of the 1st quarter and the start of the 2nd quarter the other night).

With that being said, odds are they'll have to either earn it in the paint or from the line tonight, because the points likely won't be coming from 3 (Boston 4th best in the league last season in defending the 3 at 33%).

If I get beat, I get beat, and that'll be yet another misstep on my part but, honestly, I'll take my chances with one of the best defensive units in the league against an offense that shouldn't even be averaging 90 points a game right now.

See you tomorrow night for the Warriors.

:beer4: Duckie, what made it worse is that they had an 11 point lead in the 3rd quarter and pissed it away...

 

[nbafan88]

Got very lucky. Very lucky with the missed out of bounds call.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 16-12, +3.20

Friday:

10/14/2016 8:35 PM NBA Preseason Basketball 507 Golden State Warriors* -6½ -120 vs Denver Nuggets *2 UNITS*

*"Super situation"? To be honest, after four years, I'm still not positive, due in large part to the fact that BAR doesn't post as often as he should. Having said that, the 'situation' is this:

The Nuggets with four straight on the road to begin the preseason (including a 105-88 loss in Minneapolis on Wednesday), return home to play the Warriors at Pepsi Center tonight, then turn around right afterwards for two more on the road starting with a game in Portland on Sunday.

Now, if I'm reading it correctly, the whole basis of the 'situation' is the disconnect caused by being on the road for such a long period of time, with the one 'home' game sandwiched in between - essentially what feels like yet another 'road' game, but with all the distractions associated with playing at 'home'.

To further add to the 'situation', the Warriors haven't played since last Thursday.

Now, there are many ways to look at it: a) the Warriors with the serious rest advantage but, at the same time, is there such a thing as too much rest? Does not playing throw a team out of sync while the team that has been playing, however poorly, at least have rhythm to their game?, b) does playing the marquee team in the league up the Nuggets level of play and intensity, regardless of their 'situation'?, c) do the Warriors even really care at this point, especially with a league showcase in Las Vegas tomorrow night (ie. if Adam Silver quietly mandates that Steph Curry and Klay Thompson must play in Vegas, do they get limited minutes tonight?) and d) what are their respective ATS records on Fridays? : )

So many questions, and not a whole lot of answers until the game is actually played, but I think the 'situation' coupled with Denver running their starters ragged coupled with the prospect of facing the most dynamic team in the league might be too much for the Nuggets to overcome (now watch them win SU 124-83, LOL...)

Good luck!

p.s. this overlong and overwrought write up will be available shortly on Books On Tape - check Amazon or your local retailer for more.

:beer4: Thanks nba - got even luckier that the Nets only scored 2 points the final 3 minutes of the game...

 

[nbafan88]

i think the super situation play would be to play on the blazers on sunday... been eying that for a bit

but this is preseason and that changes a lot

 

[nbafan88]

Books are cleaning up on preseason. Pretty crazy

 

[hugh613]

If you're referring to last night, probably. If you're referring to the preseason in general, not sure about that. Haven't been keeping stats, but seems like it's been a fairly even split. As for last night, meh... Never expected such a poor defensive effort from the Warriors (think the Nuggets were 7-9 from 3 to start the game).


As for tonight, not sure. Preseason's starting to get to be a bit of a drag - not doing as well as in years past, and being pretty much the only one posting starts to wear thin after a while (we don't acknowledge that joke thread with the bogus picks and bogus lines...)


And, to be honest, the preseason hasn't really been that instructive. About the only things I've learnt are that Indiana is going to be an over team this season and that tuck321 shops for groceries at Safeway...


Probably will be on the Houston over (hopefully it's not some silly number like 224) and Portland tomorrow. Other than that, we'll see...

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 16-13, +0.80

Saturday:

10/15/2016 8:05 PM NBA Preseason Basketball 709 Memphis Grizzlies/Houston Rockets* Over 214½ -110
10/15/2016 8:35 PM NBA Preseason Basketball 713 Golden State Warriors/Los Angeles Lakers* Over 215½ -110

:beer4:

 

[hugh613]

Adding:


10/15/2016 7:05 PM NBA Preseason Basketball 703 Washington Wizards/Sacramento Kings* Over 200½ -120


*No real reasoning other than the fact the game's being played at UK and DeMarcus Cousins had the night off the other night (makes me think he's primed to get some major minutes tonight). Hopefully the same holds true for John Wall and we get ourselves a barn burner at Rupp Arena tonight.


:beer4: Thanks XhuegoX - don't thank me just yet... : )

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 19-13, +3.80

Sunday:

10/16/2016 7:05 PM NBA Preseason Basketball 504 Oklahoma City Thunder* -3½ -120 vs Minnesota Timberwolves
10/16/2016 9:05 PM NBA Preseason Basketball 506 Portland Trail Blazers* -4½ -110 vs Denver Nuggets

*Following the lead of two of my esteemed CTG colleagues tonight: nbafan88 with his "OKC Sunday" angle and B.A.R. with his "Super Situation" angle.

On a statistical level, the numbers are as follows:

Minnesota vs. Oklahoma City
L10 Overall: OKC 9-1 SU
L20 Overall: OKC 16-4 SU
L10 @ OKC: OKC 9-1 SU
L20 @ OKC: OKC 17-3 SU

Denver vs. Portland
L10 Overall: POR 9-1 SU
L20 Overall: POR 16-4 SU
L10 @ POR: POR 9-1 SU
L20 @ POR: 15-5 SU

On a situational level, the angles are as follows: nbafan believes OKC's success at home on Sundays (9-2 last season, 15-5 L20 Overall) is due, in large part, to the home crowd bringing an extra level of intensity thanks to religious fervour. As for B.A.R., he believes a prolonged road trip, with a one game pit stop at home, leaves teams vulnerable the following game when they're back on the road (think I got it right this time...)

On a purely intellectual level, T-Wolves on a B2B/3 IN 5 with travel from Miami in a game where the starters logged major minutes, and the Nuggets in a major "letdown" spot after their demoralizing loss to the Warriors. And, of course, HCA coupled with both home teams being superior to the two road teams.

Don't expect either team to lose SU, and I would presume at least one or the other manages to win ATS, so hopefully manage to knock off a winning night (will have a ML parlay once the lines get released).

:beer4:

 

[nbafan88]

Curious to see if that religious angle hangs true with KD gone....

 

[nbafan88]

"Weird bad beat in NBA preseason last night, where the #Warriors were covering by 26 pts in the 3rd quarter but pushed -5"

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

Parlay: 1 UNIT @ +132

10/16/2016 7:05 PM NBA Preseason Basketball 504 Oklahoma City Thunder* -190 vs Minnesota Timberwolves
10/16/2016 9:05 PM NBA Preseason Basketball 506 Portland Trail Blazers* -190 vs Denver Nuggets

:beer4:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 20-15, +2.70

Monday:

10/17/2016 7:35 PM NBA Preseason Basketball 704 Boston Celtics* -7½ -110 vs Brooklyn Nets

*Around and around and around we go...

Anyways, wanted the Nets team total under, but doesn't look like it's going to get lined at 5Dimes anytime soon, so this will have to do.

:beer4:

 

[nbafan88]

Leaning jazz. Any thoughts?

 

[hugh613]

Leaning jazz. Any thoughts?

Not really. Only other game I gave serious consideration to was the Pistons, but the weird movement on the total made me hesitate. The only thing I would say is that the Jazz haven't been as bad on offense without Gordon Hayward as I would have thought, but it's preseason, so who knows... Good luck if you play it.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 21-15, +3.70

Tuesday:

10/18/2016 7:35 PM NBA Preseason Basketball 506 Atlanta Hawks* -5½ 120 vs New Orleans Pelicans *2 UNITS*

*Not much time for a write up but, on a side note, the first six 'situation' games I outlined at the start of the thread have gone 4-2 SU, which would have netted you a profit of almost 4 units thanks to 3 of them being ML dogs.

Of course, the only two I've played so far were the two that lost, but y'know...

:beer4:

 

[B.A.R.]

Nice preseason.

It would be hard for me to use a super situation in preseason.

With that being said,

Super situation is...

5 or more road games basically multiple timezones away. You come home and play at home on 1 day of rest. Then, you have a b2b on road the next night.

 

[nbafan88]

Just make sure to play the jazz on December 10th. It's one of the best situations I've ever seen. Hopefully the lead up to the game goes well

 

[nbafan88]

We need one more person for fantasy. Are you interested?

 

[hugh613]

I honestly don't know a thing about DFS, but thanks anyways.

 

[nbafan88]

Over in Houston/Dallas?

 

[hugh613]

Over in Houston/Dallas?

Not sure - really hard for me to back that Mavericks offense (that bench is pure garbage). Was about to pull the trigger on the Pacers -3.5, but something about that line screams trap to me. It was -6 at Bankers Fieldhouse last Wednesday when the Pacers won 101-83, so once you factor in HCA, the line does make sense, but Milwaukee can't score (apparently Khris Middleton is the most valuable player in NBA history). Definite lean to the Bucks team total under though. Only other game that makes sense to me would be the T-Wolves in some form (either their team total, or the game total - depends on if Marc Gasol can go). Minnesota sat all their starters in OKC on Sunday, so would make sense if Thibodeau gives them close to regular minutes at home tonight. Leaning Blazers as well, but don't want to make too many bets tonight.

And just as a side note, pretty discouraging to post when the only other guy 'posting' (I'd say 'betting', but I already proved in the soccer forum that he doesn't actually bet) gets away with one bogus line after another (what book still had Portland -6 / -109 at 7:30, or the Clippers under 210 / -111 at 8:00?) Ought to change his username to "Never a bad line". Fucking bullshit that the mods keep letting him get away with this...

Back a little later...

 

[gsro]

Not sure - really hard for me to back that Mavericks offense (that bench is pure garbage). Was about to pull the trigger on the Pacers -3.5, but something about that line screams trap to me. It was -6 at Bankers Fieldhouse last Wednesday when the Pacers won 101-83, so once you factor in HCA, the line does make sense, but Milwaukee can't score (apparently Khris Middleton is the most valuable player in NBA history). Definite lean to the Bucks team total under though. Only other game that makes sense to me would be the T-Wolves in some form (either their team total, or the game total - depends on if Marc Gasol can go). Minnesota sat all their starters in OKC on Sunday, so would make sense if Thibodeau gives them close to regular minutes at home tonight. Leaning Blazers as well, but don't want to make too many bets tonight.

And just as a side note, pretty discouraging to post when the only other guy 'posting' (I'd say 'betting', but I already proved in the soccer forum that he doesn't actually bet) gets away with one bogus line after another (what book still had Portland -6 / -109 at 7:30, or the Clippers under 210 / -111 at 8:00?) Ought to change his username to "Never a bad line". Fucking bullshit that the mods keep letting him get away with this...

Back a little later...

Keep your head up bud, pay no attention to that user I think I know who you're referring to. Your preseason stuff has been great, I definitely appreciate your work.

 

[hugh613]

Thanks gsro. I'm actually more upset that no one laughed at my joke a few posts ago: "About the only things I've learnt are that Indiana is going to be an over team this season and that tuck321 shops for groceries at Safeway..." C'mon, that was comedic fucking gold right there...

Also, what a great move by me to turn down tickets to last week's home opener. Hope Matthews doesn't plan on doing that to us every game for the next twenty years...

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 22-15, +5.70

Wednesday:

10/19/2016 8:05 PM NBA Preseason Basketball 707 Indiana Pacers/Milwaukee Bucks* Under 203½ -110

*Well, I might end up getting burnt on this, but I'm of the firm suspicion Nate McMillan might end up sitting guys tonight: final game of the preseason for the Pacers, and all 5 starters logged more than 30 minutes each in the loss to Orlando the other night. And, if not, that's alright too as the Bucks can't even crack 90 without Khris Middleton running the point (80's been a struggle on some nights).

:beer4:

 

[hugh613]

Also, as a courtesy to the inexplicable number of 'guests' who keep showing up in the thread (I'm guessing the majority of them came here looking for music videos...), if the Bucks game gets off to a good start, will make a play on the Jazz under as well (some real cryptic comments from Terry Stotts regarding the game tonight - check the Oregon Live website).

And nothing for tomorrow (I know, I'm shocked as well), and we'll finish out the X with, wait for it... the Sixers on Friday (can't imagine Spoelstra puts out anything more than a D-League lineup given the situation) and the Suns/Lakers over.

Good luck.

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks gsro. I'm actually more upset that no one laughed at my joke a few posts ago: "About the only things I've learnt are that Indiana is going to be an over team this season and that tuck321 shops for groceries at Safeway..." C'mon, that was comedic fucking gold right there...

Also, what a great move by me to turn down tickets to last week's home opener. Hope Matthews doesn't plan on doing that to us every game for the next twenty years...

What day of the week though?

 

[hugh613]

What day of the week though?

I believe I've heard tuck mention "Taco Tuesdays" are a pretty big deal in his household, so my guess would be Monday...

And sorry for the bad info on the Indiana game - I know it's trending under but not really feeling it tonight (especially in light of Minnesota starting to put it to Memphis (such a mistake filled preseason...)

 

[Pauliethevig]

I believe that was the way to go. I thought even after a four day rest with the starters playing 169 minutes last game I thought Indy would mail it in and they did on the defensive side. Take a look at the shot chart amazing and Indy getting out rebounded 50-34 90 points is a big day for Milwaukee but not tonight. Good Pick bad result. I liked it also. That's an angle I play during the season on a B2B (of course this wasn't a b2b) but when the starters play more then 160 minutes combined I look at the other side or the Under

What pisses me off is I was late on the knick game after reading nobody was going to play or play long for the C's. That was easy money. O-Well on to the next game.

 

[hugh613]

Thanks Paulie. What really ticks me off about last night, and it's something I've done repeatedly during the preseason, is look at my notes from last night:

Indiana line looks like a trap... Don't like the over in Dallas... Love Minnesota in this spot... Liking Portland... Under in the Jazz game.

Then out of thin air, I decide to go with something I barely made mention of.

Over and over I've done that where I talk up one game, then either tack on additional losers, or completely cast it aside and go with something else. By my count, I should be closer to double digits in profit for the preseason instead of muddling along. Just sheer stupidity on my part...

Anyways, nothing for tonight. Hopefully the Heat go full out against the Hornets (especially Whiteside) to set up for tomorrow against the Sixers (just saying I'll be on the Sixers makes me feel a little dumber inside, but what can you do...)

Good luck to those betting tonight.

 

[Pauliethevig]

I know the feeling. Sometimes we over-think and forget about the games that first come to mind with good reasoning and insight and just screw up the day by taking another road. Time for a new day and you do a great job by pointing people in right direction with great analysis of upcoming games.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 22-16, +4.60

Thursday:

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10/20/2016 7:05 PM NBA Preseason Basketball 503 Miami Heat/Charlotte Hornets* Under 193½ -110

*Ok, I lied... I found a play I can live with, win or lose, to waste a few hours on, especially now that Goran Dragic is out for the Heat. I'll write it up a bit more in about half an hour...

:beer4: Thanks Paulie.

 

[hugh613]

Nothing really jumped out at me when I first looked over the schedule, but seeing Dragic out has made me rethink my stance (plus, what else do I have to do on a rainy, dreary night like tonight?) Anyways, the O/U between the two last season was 4-7, which really means nothing I agree but, at the same time, in the games that were lined 195 or less, the O/U was 1-6 (in the spirit of full disclosure, four of those games were in the playoffs, where you expect more defensive pressure, but nevertheless...)

As for the preseason, the Miami offense has been humming right along through its first six games at an average of 106.3 PPG but, at the same time, those points have been coming against some of the lesser defenses in the league like Orlando, Minnesota, Brooklyn and Washington. The Hornets will be a step up in class for them, especially without their playmaker in the lineup. As for the Hornets, fairly unimpressive offensive numbers during the preseason (94.4 points per game) without Al Jefferson and Jeremy Lin. Plus, I don't know the actual numbers, but I'm pretty sure they've been getting next to nothing from their bench (seems like every time I watch the scores, they have huge lulls in scoring the latter half of quarters).

Both teams play at a moderate pace and both sides with impressive DRatings so far (Miami 95.7, Charlotte 95.9) so expecting more of a bump and grind type game tonight.

Of course, we're one night removed from a team that could barely break the 89 point barrier managing to put up 111, so who knows...

 

[Pauliethevig]

I went with the Bulls -3 Good Luck hugh

 

[hugh613]

Thanks Paulie. Hopefully the Bulls get off to a better start for you than my under (Hornets can't miss to start the game, LOL)

:cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

Have to rethink tomorrow night as there's no point in taking the Sixers anymore: Whiteside and Waiters barely played, Haslem, Winslow and Dragic didn't play at all. Plus, the thought of taking the Sixers kind of made my skin crawl...

Think the Suns are the better way to go: 7-1 SU (6-1-1 ATS) regular season the past two seasons vs. the Lakers, rest advantage of 6 days to 1 (although that didn't seem to help the Warriors in Denver last Friday), neutral site game in Anaheim so no HCA for the Lakers, PHX 3-2 on the preseason, LAL 2-5. Plus, and this is just me speculating (and we've all seen how well that works out), have to assume Luke Walton gives the kids at least the 2H off as D'Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Brandon Ingram and Julius Randle have all logged major minutes during the preseason, but we'll see...

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 23-16. +5.60

Friday:

10/21/2016 10:05 PM NBA Preseason Basketball 711 Phoenix Suns* +3½ -110 vs Los Angeles Lakers

:beer4:

 

[hugh613]

Wish I could say I was surprised the Sixers won, but y'know... Hope this continued spell of poor judgment doesn't carry over into the regular season.

 

[hugh613]

NBAX: 24-16. +6.60

*That's a wrap. Hard to complain when you finish in the black, but feels like I should have done a lot better; in fact, I know I should have done a lot better (those nine plays I outlined at the start of the thread went 7-2 SU but, of course, I only played 3 of them and went 1-2...) Lots of poor judgment on my part, lots of breakdowns in the final analysis, etc...

Anyways, thanks to all those who stopped by with well wishes over the course of the past few weeks (Paulie, nba, BAR, kj, gsro, Duckie, XHuegoX), and a special thanks to all the 'guests' who viewed the thread on a regular basis (hopefully you tailed only the winners...)

Time to hand the NBA Forum back to the masses.