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Fred57

The Star of Nightmare on Elm Street
Decided to combine threads. I'm capping a little different this year and been tracking. My combined posted is 31-15-1 67.4% and the unofficial record is 41-22-1 65%. 16-10-1 totals and 25-12-0 ats. I will be using the unofficial record because it is more realistic. Went 2-3 overall yesterday. Total hit but ats was bad at 1-3. As I stated in my other thread my goal is +55%. This is a new angle for me and might shit the bed. It has shown good profit so far and I will jump ship if I feel it is going bad. If anyone does follow do so with caution. Last night I mentioned a flaw I found. The Jazz game tonight falls into that category. The H2H is lopsided to the Jazz but my #'s side with the Bucks' I will watch and live bet. I will also be watching the total in the Bulls game vs the west. I hit last night going against the over trend and when they play B2B vs west I think trends under. It stands at 228.5 and my # is 230.8. Put this in last night GL!!
SAS o217.5 +100 (Now -115)
Mil TT u118.5 +110
 
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Playing these tonight GL!!
ATL o227.5 +100 I played this earlier, now -110
NO o213.5 +100
ATL TT o114.5 +110 now -115
Leans ATL ml/Indy -6/Cle ml
 
I put this in earlier and the line is falling. Should have taken last night. GL!!
Tor +6 -108 Down to +5.5 at MGM +6 at DK
 
1-0 last night, 45-24-1. Staying with Toronto again tonight. My #'s shows the same situation as last night. Since I noticed a flaw in my H2H capping with lopsided totals, (4 games), it is 3-1. Hopefully tonight it goes to 4-1. If you follow do so with caution. I might add if some #'s go my way GL!!
Tor +10 +100
 
1-1 yesterday 46-26-1. Been going 50% 4 days in a row losing $110. I will post again today but if the odds don't increase, I will track only for a couple of days GL!!
NY ML -105 (played last night now -120)
 
1-0 yesterday 47-26-1. Tracking wise, totals are not going all that good. Last night fell under 50% for the 1st time and ats held at 53%. I will lay off totals and just track for a few days. ATS, at 53% turns a profit (avg bet $100, avg odds +100), but not my goal of +55%. As I said in the beginning this is my attempt at a new angle. I will return to my old ways if this doesn't work out. I cap every game old school, with pen and paper. Still many games to go. We will see. Be back if I find a play GL!!
 
Decided to live bet only tonight. No ats meet my # and 2 meet the totals # but will only track. Would be nice to see another money pit like the Bulls game the other night. Here are some ats that come close. GL!!
Indy -1.5 +105
Det +5.5 +100
Mem +5.5 +105
NO u222.5 +105
SAC -7.5 & o225.5
Action $25 BB Mem +13.5/Bos ml/SAS ml +106 Will not count in record.
 
My bonus bet hit and leans went 4-2. Overall tracking went 13-5. Since there is only 1 game today and it meets my totals #, I'll take a stab GL!!
Dal u229.5 +100 I think this # continues to fall.
 
1-0 yesterday, 48-26-1. Full slate today and I've just started capping but this jumped out and I'm going to take it now. I'll be back if I find anything else. GL!!
Chi u 235.5 +105
Leans 6ers ml +105 and Den -5.5 -105
 
Found a couple plays I like and a couple of close, but no cigar plays GL!!
Chi u235.5 +105
Den -5.5 +105
SAC ml +105
Leans Tor over/OKC under/6ers ml
 
What a terrible night in the NBA for me. 0-3, 48-29-1. Overall tracking went 6-6 and I was on all the losers. I never watch the games, only live bet tracking on certain games. As usual, I check the box scores in the am. What a shock to see 1 game score 150 pts FH and another game score 77 in the 4thQ. Overall, I lost $400 last night. Worst night of the season and one I hope not to repeat. $100 of that was an entertainment bet hoping the old man would get lucky and knock Paul the "F" out!! (fell asleep in the recliner and missed the fight). Back on subject, I bet by my #'s and would make the same bets today. My goal beginning of the season was to hit 55% over 100 games while avg as close to even money as possible. I'm betting more games than I thought I would, 22 games to go and I need 7 wins to hit my goal. I will stop wagering until play offs and start to concentrate on CBB. I'm going to try the same angle but need more data. With all the yearly changes in college ball it takes a little longer to get the #'s I need. (tracking so far is not good). I just hope the season isn't over before I get those #'s. Hopefully I can maintain a decent % for another 22 games. Be back if I find a play GL!!
 
Just did some live betting yesterday and happy I did. Tracking was bad again yesterday. (46%). I'm trying a little adjustment today to see if anything changes. Might have to jump ship if the next few days doesn't improve GL!!
Mia 0230.5 +100
Den o225.5 +100
 
0-2 yesterday 48-31-1. The last week has been really bad. Time to take a couple days off and try to adjust. GL!!
 
Need 21 more games to complete my goal. Tracking has been terrible, but I will finish this thread and see where it lands GL!!
Mem +2.5 +105
 
1-0 yesterday 49-31-1. Ats tracking has been good, and totals has been really bad. Short slate today and no plays. GL!!
 
A good night going 2-0, 51-31-1 (62%). ATS has been doing good, but totals have been off. 18 games and I need 4 wins to meet my goal. If I go 9-9, I'll end with 60% at even money. Only play today is Chi listed above GL!!
 
Took yesterday off. Been ice cold for a few days. I'll be traveling tomorrow, so I will post If I can. Overall record 51-32-1 (61.4%). I need 17 more games to complete my task and then I will combine my threads. 2 plays today, one of which is a total. Have not been good with totals but I have to go with the #'s to be accurate GL!!
Chi -4.5 -105
LAL u232.5 +100
 
2-0 yesterday, finally hit a total. 53-32-1 (62.4%). 15 games to go. Only one meets my criteria and it's a team that pops up a lot lately GL!!
Chi +9.5 +110
 
Finally, back home and glad the holiday rat race is over for now. I play today. The record stands at 53-33-1. GL!!
LAL +7.5 -105
 
Was hoping for some change after the holiday, but not yet. 2 plays today, (been good fade) GL!!
Hou ml +105
Mil o222 +100
 
1-1 yesterday 54-35-1. One more win to hit my goal of 55%. Down to 60.7% with 11 games to go. Overall tracking has been going down for the last 15 days. Totals have been doing better over the last few days and ats has gone way down. Need to make some adjustments, just not sure where. Small slate today, be back if anything hits GL!!
 
I hit my goal with 10 games to go. I never thought that it would happen so soon. I figured that I wouldn't have daily or even multiple daily games. I've learned a couple of things since I started tracking. The 1st thing that stands out are points, whether ats or totals. I know many believe points matter and to some degree and in certain sports I agree. I do not agree when it comes to basketball. Of the 35 games lost, only 8 games came down to pts. Only 10 of the wins came down to pts. Most of the wins/loss's pts did not matter If you follow you know I sell pts to get even or + money. I know the sample is small, but hopefully it continues this way for me. The 2nd thing is the #'s are always true, but the teams are forever changing. The #'s don't have emotion, injuries and referees. Just got internet and Wi-Fi back online. Be back after looking over games GL!!
 
Decent night going 2-0. 57-35-1. Looking over the games, be back if I find something GL!!
 
This is scary for me, 3 plays on a short slate. Here goes GL!!
Chi +2.5 +100
Orl -4 -105
GSW u219 +100
Lean Bos/Port ml +127
 
1-2 night, 58-37, with 5 more games. Would be nice to sweep the last 5. ATS tracking has been really bad and will make adjustments. Totals have been tracking better but still not what I want to see. Busy day for me but I will check the #'s later. I will be looking to play these but will confirm sometime later GL!!
OKC u224
Dal o234
Suns +6
Tor +8
Den u231
 
1-0, 59-39, with 2 games to go. Small slate the next few days. Nothing today, will be back at some point to finish up GL!!
 
0-1 yesterday 59-39. One last game for tonight. Would really like to end at 60% but happy with where I am at this point. I nearly doubled my goal and as of right now up $1825. I will try again at some point GL!!
Atl +6.5 +100
 
Fred57 said:
0-1 yesterday 59-39. One last game for tonight. Would really like to end at 60% but happy with where I am at this point. I nearly doubled my goal and as of right now up $1825. I will try again at some point GL!!
Atl +6.5 +100
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Nice job only time I did well with reg season nba was the 1st year I played 3 point props and they hadn’t really figured out the numbers yet. I made a fortune fir like 3 months hitting over 70% on mostly plus money plays but didn’t take them long to figure out they were fucking up and I went back to not playing much nba besides playoffs. Anyways nice job, I find this sport reg season to be so situational which is not my biggest strength at all!!
 
Are these Games tonight last the stupid ass tourney thing? Seems odd nba would only have 2 games on Wed night? Gotta be getting into the quarter or semi finals?
 
My 100-game goal has come to an end. I finished up at 60-40 (60%), up $1925 (includes losses in other thread). Overall tracking did really good until teams started to hit 15+ games. That's around the time lines started to get tighter and teams started to become teams. I'm going to track for a spell and see if I can make any adjustments to make it profitable again. Avg overall tracking last 10 days was 47.6%. No where near being of any use. Maybe it is only good for the early season stretch. GL!!
 
Hey Fred, sorry if I missed it but are you running some kind of system or just capping the games? As I said above for me regular season nba is like the toughest nut in sports ro crack, even tougher than nfl for me!! It just so situational which has always been a clear weak spot in my capping, I am not good w the situational stuff, numbers and matchups im all bout but when it comes to motivation factors or who cares on a given night I suck something serious! I guess cause that stuff just doesn’t compute w me, I’m a go hard bring my best kinda guy anytime I show up, what’s the point of being there if you not bring your best the way I see it, if I’m not feeling it I’d just take the day off like Kawii! Lol. I think nba is way more about motivation angles than anything else so naturally it always been tough for me. The 2 exceptions I got in on the 3 point prop market a little early before they fixed it where I had a sick run for a month or 2, of course I gave most it back trying to beat the prop market even after they made a huge adjustment to the 3 point props which they had to do cause I’m sure I wasn’t the only only to stick it to them! Then I do tend to do pretty well in playoffs, even that has fallen off tho, used to be a gold mine but with 80% of games turning into 3 point shooting contest it has become much tougher to determine the “better” team as don’t much matter if you shoot 6-35 and the other team drills 50% of their 60 attempts make it damn near impossible to figure out. So I’ve all but given up… over the years I’ve known guys who were very good to the point I’d just follow them (if you know me, you know that incredibly rare!) but have lost touch over the years so dunno if they have maintained the sane success Or not..

Anyways sorry for the long post, just curious if you have found a crack in system or just been on a really nice run capping this shit? Either way congrats on the success and hope it continues for you
 
I will say last year inaugural this stupid cup thing I did really well just hammering lakers, they were healthy and you could tell for some reason bron thought adding this goofy Cup to his resume was important to him so I pounded lakers all thru Vegas. No clue on cup of if anyone cares this year? I was thinking Steph wanted it but a horse shit call and blown 7 point lead did that in! Find it hard to believe bucks care that much, I could see either the young west teams playing next wanting to win it, guess I lean with okc but not confident like lakers last year.
 
Thanks guys!! 2daBank, I was capping using a % on #'s. I use 5 categories and then +/-, % depending on how many categories were met. The teams that went 7+ off the opening #'s was a play. I wish I had taken advantage early on but was skeptical at 1st. Using that method Chi -5.5 and the under 231.5 are plays today. Indy just misses 6+ (my # Indy -1) and LAL is 6+(my #Min -1). Jazz u230 is 6+ (my #224). Anyways, I agree with you on the situational crap. Way too many WTF just happened in games today. Back in the 80's and 90's I loved the game and the players and bet offshore. I used 5-Dimes, Bavodo and I think it was Bodog. I watched almost every game that was on TV. Then the downfall of the NBA started with egomaniacs like Labron. 3-point shit shows. I've watched only one game this season and until playoffs won't watch another. I also agree with you on these stupid cup games. I understand lower paid players wanting an extra slice of pie but picking and choosing which games you will give 100% is ridiculous. GL!!
 
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