NBA Wednesday

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Billivy

Guest
Last night 3-1 (+$780)
Season 61-42-1 (+$10,790)


Houston/Minny under 177 (1100 to win 1,000)
Philly +8.5 (330 to win 300)
Washington pk (220 to win 200)

obviously i love the total, back later with some analysis (got to get to work)
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The one recent b2b for Houston this season, they had no chance of running with Phoenix and got blown out on the road. Yao and Tmac played solid last night in limited time, soo i expect the Rockets to recognize their b2b fatigue factor and lean heavy on their two scorers tonight in as much of a half court offense as they can dictate. This is really a feel play for me, altho a strong one...b/c the numbers really don't support it. Recent matchups help in averages, but there are huge differentials between the overs and unders for these two teams...I feel I've found the connecting thread however. These teams play to unders in large spurts...right now, Houston has gone under the projected total 6 out of their last 7 games. Minny has gone under 4 times out of their last 5. If this total was being played out last season, everybody would have felt this was a very fair number (even a shade high)...I'm betting a pretty unpopular side tonight and the reason being is that I've made this kind of bet for the past two years and it's paid out more than collected. I consider both of these teams to be what i call "under" teams...when they play eachother, games can get ugly...pace of play is contageous and there is literally nobody on either side of the court that will be pushing the ball tonight. We're looking at 48 minutes of half court basketball. These teams have some talented scorers, and some would believe that that's a detriment to a total this low, I feel it's our saving grace...it's simply gonna insure a smaller number of field goal attempts tonight due to the teams taking the time in their set offenses to get the ball to these players, such as Tmac/Yao/Garnett. On the season these teams are 12-21 over/under....this total is strongly based on their last matchup back in november and last season's numbers...however i don't believe we're far enough into the season where last seasons numbers arent as strong or even still stronger than any trends set in the first five weeks this season (same players for the most part on these squads)....In early 06, you'd see this number set at 170 (and it has, back in april and january)...in the four matchups this season your lookin at a high total of 188 and as low as 157...the mean is WELL below this number and the range aint bad either...Houston's recent game play Minny, Cleveland, Memphis, and Washington have shown me that they are still capeable of playin the kind of basketball that i counted on lsat season when banking on their unders. Minny plays to other teams pace usually, they don't have the abillity to set pace against the Rockets, and the competitve nature of this game should be evident in the defense brought fourth by both squads in the last 10 minutes or so...As long as we don't see 20 points in the last two minutes or overtime, I feel pretty safe about this one. BOL
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With you on the Washington Pick and Philly +8.5.

I saw Gilbert Arenas on NBA TV and he looks to win tonight's game. He said that they though it was going to be an easy win for them and underestimated the Knicks. I doubt the outcome will be the same tonight. :cheers:
 
hey bill, great nite last nite.. what do you see the total at in the minny/hous game tonite?? line is dropping and your boy killa loving the over... just curious... thanks
 
87-75 final for houston...lol,
why am i not takin houston? i dont like having two large bets on the same game and the total is further from my prediction
 
Way to go on the HOU/MIN under!!!!!!!!!!!:cheers:

I tailed you at U176.5 and then pussed out and hedged at O175.5 hoping for the middle at 176 - so close. WAS worked out good too. Let's hope philly can backdoor some more money.
 
Wow did I sweat that 1 out...Had under 175 1/2...Nice call billivy!!!! :cheers:
Maybe Philly can make a run in the 3rd quarter....
 
wowwwwwwwwwwww $1,000 for the UNDER $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$4
let go phily...give us a single digit lead by end of 3q
 
billivy you da man!!!! great call.. talk about sweating out the last 5 mins.. i think i have an ulcer now!! but all feels good when you get that win.. lol also wanted to say that i really appreciate you posting the money amounts on your bets.. i really does help alot to see what you like vs what you love... thanks again for all the great info.. and killa was close just you were closer!! gotta give you both props for a close one!!!
 
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