NBA Tuesday

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
NBA Tuesday Updated

Quick thoughts after a solid Monday nite....Wiz were one of those games if I could I would have wagered enough to buy a house...unfortunately all I got was a cup of coffee out of the deal......I love those bad lines especially when road chalk is involved....my confidence is building......

Dallas @ NJN -

Have no idea what the hold up is on releasing a line but would guess its similiar to what we saw versus Washington. Generally Wiz are considered slightily better then NJ but with the way Wash crushed them it could deflate the Mavs value some...so looking for DAL -3.5 here off the top of my head.....Think NJ though plays defense nearly as bad as Washington though and we could get a cheap total around 196 -198 based on reputation....

Now its out opened -1.5 and now -2.5. I have to caution against playing Dallas though. I had Dal as closer to PK versus Wash and think maybe we should have seen Dal -1 here...so its alittle fat with expectation Mavs wil automatically bounce back. However what makes this a bounce back situation the mere fact they lost a game? That makes no sense to me then. I didnt realize that Dallas was expected to win every nite and when they dont its a bounce back situation. Mavs are good but far from great so I dont see why they can just snap there fingers and play better tonite and win. They did start 0-4....So thats flawed logic. Its the same ole story which side if any has value due to perception. I dont like nJ at all lately but people overlook the fcat there schedule was brutal for 3 weeks. Now they are getting some rest here 2 days since the last game. I dont se the B to B presenting a problem for Dallas. I do like th eover alot at this number biut gonna let it develop and see where it stands later. Mavs had won 9 straight before losing in NJ last season laying -2. With more research that line seemed inflated due to the fact NJ got smoked in Dallas...if this continue to rise to 3 or better NJ will gather steam as avalue play IMO..


Port @ Det -

This is DET's highest line this season but was 11.5 originally now down to +10. Blazers either win SU as dogs or lose ATS....so do you think the can win in Motown?? If not could be a good idea to fade them ATS BUT they did actually cover ATS and fail to win SU in Motown last season. Blazers seem to be something around 101-88 losers when they travel so that would point to an under here but not sure....Blazers actually played well vs DET last year and Randolph played well....if anything I might entertain the Blazers 1st Half....you would hate fading Pistons off a SU loss but also they began a road trip in Dallas after this...could be a lookahead sandwich type but I would always say no team wants to starts a trip on a losing streak...since the opener away Blazers have scored 85-89 in there road contests..while DET after the 1st 2 games at home DET has scored 100++...

Its scary how similiar Blazers road finals are after there road opener. They lost 89-102 the first two , then 89-101 , 87-100, then they lose 90-118 @Boston but follow it with an 86 -68 win @NJ , and after that lose 85 -105...there certainly is more then a trend. It really IMO has to do with the lack of second scoring option that causes Port to have droughts late in games when the opponent is keying on Zach Randolph.

How scary is DET at home?? How bout 8 home games and 4 of which were with in 1 POINT of the spread. Which makes me wonder who steamed the Blazers here? I mean a HOT team goes down in Charlotte and I owuld guess bettors would lineup to play the pistons in a bounce back spot versus one of if not the NBA's worst away team. Seems odd but as I said DET hasnt seen such a big line but Blazers have...

The KEY here is Portland is playing no DEFENSE of late allowing near 52% from the floor thats insane. With the recent spurt in DET's offense it comes out to DET scoring about 106 here...that alone makes and UNDER hard to take but still if they get that 85 , 86 that they are avg its below 193.5.....this game is just to tight for me to call.....if not for the fact DET has been awful laying chalk I might dive in with them...Blazers stink but have 3 wins and 2 losses below 7 pts in its last 5 trips to Motown...I have to say that DET home court value is not what it appears to be by looking atthe numbers..I owuld say its closer to -9 then the opener of -11.5 which is why I am guessing we saw this get hit hard...a closer game
should help the overand I have to lean Blazers 1st H +5.5 or better then +10.5 ...

<LI class=morehot>Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Detroit. <LI class=morecool>Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
GS @ Houston -

JRich's is OUT for the trip. After this SA game I actually love the UNDER and hope it gets inflated. GS generally doesnt score as much on the road and even less when faced with a back to back. No way Hou wants to run up and down and with how GS is playing expect Houston to dictate tempo....I think we see a 200++ total...its limited but GS 89 for and 93 against on no rest and Hou on 2 days rest is 89 for and 73 against..7 games played and 7 unders....while this wont qualify as a 130/100 theory play its fairly close ......Last nite GS defensively..<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblclbg5 align=right><TD>49-94</TD><TD>13-23</TD><TD>18-19</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>37</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Only 1 of four meetings saw 200 pts last season and it need OT(GS has a history of struggling to break 90 in Houston)....I said I wont be suprised to see a 200++ total but guessing I would expect 197 and hope for 200 or better....would have to like Houston here as well depending on the number though.....

Generally Houston is regarded as about 2 pts weaker in spreads...Gonna wait here and missed -7 but this still seems fair at 7 /7.5....The total is a little lwoer then I wanted but still with how HOU is shutting teams down and the struggles GS had last nite what should change...rockets have scored 81-86 in 5 of the past 6 at home...might just dive in @ 195 -110


Sac @ Suns

Gonna wait on a number till I comment....dislike the long rest for Pho but they already have 3 games on 3 days rest with avgs of 106 -106...This will be a 4th in 5 nites for Kings against a very rested PHO squad and off a buzzer beating three...OT would have been beautiful..

Artest appears OUT. Would actually lean UNDER at this high number....thought -8 was fair but it apears that Suns got STEAMED so I am willing to play the -10 but hoping "joe public" comes in and knocks it down to -9.5 again....A very bad spot for Sac to be w/o Artest this should get ugly...4th game in 5 nites started in Dallas , then in SA , off day fly back to Sac lose on a buzzer beater and out to Phoenix(obviously a short trip)....so Suns (maybe 1st half as well ) and Under


Atlanta @ Seattle-

Still think with how Sonics are playing they are inflating Hawks lines.....doesnt -4 seem more fair?? Anyway with out research in a revenge (yeah right!) matchup the points like attractive.....for a total gonna say the over interests me but not crazy about it over 200...

Looked at the 1st matchup and Joe Johnson was 12 of 30 and they still went to OT!! Could be a disturbing trend thoughas J is 7 /17 and 4/17 past 2 vs Seattle. Also note that Hawks took 10 more FTs in the 1st meeting but hit just 2 more then Sea...

As I said earlier an over seemed interesting at 199 but well above 200 just not for me. Cant see anyone playing worse defense then Port lately and Hawks won SU and managed 107 (203 were scored)... 40-78 (51.3) , 8-17 (47.1) , 19-26 (73.1)...Sonics have hit the century mark in just 4 of 10 and a missed shot here and there ATL is down to 101 or 102...like the over but it seems tight and it seems Sonics just have no consistency on offense...Hawks struggle at the FT line but there FG % allowed is considerably better but we know Sonics love them threes and Hawks allowin a gross 43 % away... but nly 2 ATLopponets scored 100 in a road game...


Miami @ LAC -

Until the heat do a little better against quality road opponnets they scare me away. I do seem to think 189 is to low for this total....so looking atth eover.......

Basically the heat are playing much better taking 4 staright ATS but think I wil stay away from a side. really like the over here. Heat much improved on offense really cant do much to stop other teams offenses. Iplayed the over 190 -110 but still looking at it....


Will look at the decent sized college card as well...should have alot here
 
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Loving Phoenix... especially early... not the longest layoff and Kings have to be exhausted. Suns came out after Nash sat out a game and rested earlier this season on fire... so I don't think that will be a problem. Without Artest they are just a finess team without offensive punch. If I see Artest is out, I'll hit Phoenix 1Q, 1H.
 
Just finished up college, getting started on NBA now, what do you think of the total in the heat/clippers game?
 
xpression syst_m said:
Just finished up college, getting started on NBA now, what do you think of the total in the heat/clippers game?

I try to just play some totals I like before they move and went Ov 190 there. Both teams inconsistencies scare me though. Last meeting in LA hit 188 due to a low 4th Q . Really the same lineups and with no Shaq , Brand looked unstoppable. Clippers like gettin to the line and based on avgs Miami should put them there so I see LAC about 100 and while unsure of the outcome I do think Miami keeps it within 10 points which would put them at least in the low 90's...
 
So recapping...

1)Lean towards Blazers better then +10 and the total is tight would guess over if Blazers are to cover

2)Guessing the Nets but nothing set it stone @ +3 or better BUT played Over 192.5 -110 which is still offered currently as a (LAGE ) play.

3)Really like Houston but think I can get -7 again at some point I wll probably settle for the Under 195 as a (Medium or Large ) play.

4)Then we have to like the Suns here but trying for a better then number then -10 and of course the under 215 looks intriguing...

5)Like the Hawks a solid / strong play for sure(Medium to Large size) and the total is tight. Would like to go over but not sure at 202 /203..

6)You have to respect the Heats resurgence but on the road not looking to get involved (yet) but just played the over for a medium play....
 
like the ATL play Sporto :)

still crunchin NJ game...no need to force but want better line there

Port...would like to see more then 10 there....det could also be ripe to blow them out

the other have no interest for me

GL
 
After long deliberation today nut I went with GS/Rockets under
Heat/Clipps over...
Always enjoy reading your thoughts... especially when their the same as mine ....

GL tonight
 
I've decided to pass on NBA tonight, nothing stands out at all after wasting the past few hours on the games...
 
NCAAB - Of all sports this is one to remain cautious.....

Using my New Grading system (S , M , L , XL and the phrase value means a ML but 1/8 the size of ur ATS play)

Brown +9 -110 (Large) Win ML +370 (value) Loss
Under 129.5 -105 (Small) Loss

Syracuse -2.5 -108 (Large) Downgraded to (Medium) Loss

West Mich +8 -110 ( medium) Win +305 ML (value) Loss
Over 132 -110 Temple (Small) Win

South Florida -10 -120 (medium) Loss
Over 56.5 -108 1st Half (medium) STRONG PLAY (Loss)
{went for the 1st Half total cause a better number}

Purdue -6 -110 (Medium)serious revenge spot.. Win
Over 143 -114 (Small) Loss..needed 3 more

William & Mary -112 ML (Medium) Loss

Minnesota +11.5 -110 (Medium) Win +570 (value)

Central Mich +17 -110 (Small) Win +1440 (Value) L

Clev St +11.5 -110 (medium) Loss ML +520 (value) L

Iowa -2 -110 (Small) F'N Loss

New Mex St ML -140 (Medium) Win

LSU -2.5 -108 (Small)

Wash State +3 -110 (Large ) ML +127(Small)

Fullerton +19.5 -110 (small)

Hawaii -2.5 -110 (Medium)

NIU -3 -110 (Lean)

Ill St -4 -110 (Lean)

Louisville +4 -110 (medium) +150 ML (value)

Added Games:
Charleston +6.5 -110 (small) Loss , Chattanogga +18 -110 (small) Win , Clemson -24.5 -109 (small) Loss damn hook and Portland U ML (Medium)
 
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I don't think your gonna get your 9.5 in Phx. If anything it won't be from the public who are all over the Suns. I made the game "8" and deemed that as a fair number. Teams playing their 4th in 5 have faired well this year ATS, however, the Suns have the type of offense that can steamroll a team.
 
smh212 said:
I don't think your gonna get your 9.5 in Phx. If anything it won't be from the public who are all over the Suns. I made the game "8" and deemed that as a fair number. Teams playing their 4th in 5 have faired well this year ATS, however, the Suns have the type of offense that can steamroll a team.

I wont get my 9.5/ However you are actually incorrect in thinking the public is on the Suns here. The public is buying into to the fact the line is to high. I guess you assume the reason the line moved was cause of the public I disagree. I knew the line would be at least -8 but this game was steamed by the "pros" no doubt in my mind as well upped when Artest was downgraded.....I have been the one saying how great it has to been to ride teams playing there 4th in 5 nites...basically cause they knew the public stance and were adjusting the lines higher...not done here though...

Hope I dont come off harsh I am trying to do 5 things at once and rushing...hope my tone didnt come off the wrong way...I am just pressed for time...
 
NBA

Over 192.5 -110 Dallas / NJ ( Large ) - BAD LOSS -4.40
Going to trust my instincts here as I firmly believe NJ cant play defense. Look at there past 7 games or so lowest pts allowed was 96...to Charlotte at home and the Bobcats only put up 37 in the 2nd Half. If the 1st Half wasnt shaded so low I might have played the 1st half over butgonna pass and worst case middle some at Half if its a high scoring 1st Half. Dallas had been playing good defense but they had no luck at stopping Wash last nite. As I stated NJ has slowed anyone with 3 games on 99 and the other 3 above 100 allowed. I expect a close game and Lean towards NJ...

Blazers +10.5 -105 (bumped to Large) WIN +4.00 +535ML (Value)W +2.68
Over 193 -105 (Medium) Loss -2.10

Really a fade off DET as such chalk coupled with Portland's suprise success in Motown. Dont see the Pistons fail to crack the century mark and if I expect a DOG cover then they must break the 90's...

Rockets -7 -110 (Large) Win +4.00
Under 195 -110 (Medium) Loss -2.20

My feeling about the Houston total was stated earlier. When I play Unders I think I prefer to see them hold steady or run higher so maybe thats why I failed to act strongly on this one..maybe a 2nd half Under if we have value? Basically I just see a reeling GS team and last year GS appeared to play Hous tight but they never faced Yao and the last neeting McGrady was a DNP...previously they had lost by about 15 or so...

Suns -10 -110 (bumped to large)
1st H -5.5 -120 (Small) Win +1.00
Under 216 -110 (Small)

Lately I have preferred to ride the road team in the 4th in 5 spot but this is sort of like Indy @ Denver just to tough situationally to overcome..They will be w/o Artest a defender they need here and are off travels to Dallas and SA , plus last nites home loss by 3 to Orlando....

Hawks +6 -110 (Medium) ML +194 (Value)

The Hawks are on the teams I having trouble placing values on. I thought it was a layup to see them @ as dog in Portland the other nite. So its hard to say what I feel the difference bewteen Seattle v Portland is....probablyt about 4 pts withut HC factored in so that makes this line where it should be.....If for some reason this got smashed I migh get off it but I'll ride them...

Over 190 -110 Miami (Small)
Over 96 -108 1st Half (Small)

Something deep down wants me to gamble on Miami but I just cant...so as I said earlier Heat defense should allow LAC to get to the line and crack a 100....I owuld not expect Miami to get blwon out here which makes it likely they crack 9 points....

Thats all for now gonna sit tight on some of the games and enjot the NJ vs Dal game..
 
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Card looks great. Obviously love the Suns 1H. They seem to give up so many big leads in the 2nd half that I couldn't take them for the game. Also like the Rockets to roll the Warriors. See the Warriors around 85 and the Rockets at 100. Also hit the Mavs as I think they are the far superior team and Dallas has been good on b2b's.
 
right now the three NBA early games all have 193.5 total!!!!
 
Suns first half significantly superior than Suns for the game. If you add third quarter bet assuming first half loses you have optimum strategy for this team GL.
 
Tuck ~ The Suns are the Kings of allowing teams back in games Nets , Grizzlies off the top of my head. Look at like this I have one unit on the 1st H and 2 units on the game...if the 1st h wins I am +1 and the chance to middle is there a need to....

Scourge .....odd.....no crazy moves really though..GL

Killa ~ Thanks man...gotta check your thread..GL

JPicks ~ I am only lost in trying to evaluate Dallas value...the more I look at it the more I like NJ but the Nets tend to play like shit in the 1st half so I will wait....just not sure Dal desreve sto be chalk over these teams..as I said yesterday they were only favored @ Char , Memphi , Port by 4-6...is NJ only slightuly better then thse teams. Based on there head to heads probably YES but I think the early schedule did NJ in and think they are much better then recent play....probably should Dal -1 here...GL
 
Understand the letting players back in is primarily a fourth quarter effect. I frequently play dog in the fourth as a standard bet before the game but also am very willing to bet Suns in the third.
 
you taught me something.....I guess I dont even want to start looking at Quarter plays.....I have enough plays but strategic wagering is also valuable....this is just so much of a strong situation that I feel they have to either cover the 1st Half or the game......thanks for the heads up though...GL
 
2nd Half NBA Thread

Blazers +6 -107 (small) Win
Under 96.5 is what I expect but gonna stay off (should have played)

Over 97 +100 2nd H NJ (medium) L
NJ -3 -109 (medium) L

(1-2 -3.18 on these)
Also this is not a chase I do NOT chase. This is seperate from game wager. I saw a game that started incredibly slow and my original notes said it was odd the 1st Half total was shaded to be cheaper then it should be so it was not all that suprising...as I said NJ a bad 1st H team


Hou +3 -115 (small) Win +1.00
Under 96 -113 (small) Loss -1.13

(now 2-4 -3.31)
Not expecting a GS comeback against this defense , shorthanded and in a B to B game. Hoping Hou takes control of pace and tempo now.....

Kings +3.5 -108 (Small)L
Under 106 -115 (small)L

As I say tempo much slower in the 2nd Q so I'll ride an under hoping the 4th Q is a bore. basically taking Sac as a hedge but also Suns do give back leads and never actually put Sac away....my guess is Suns win by 12 to keep everyone on the edge of there seat

Sticking it up on 2nd H and totals tonite....
Hawks -2.5 -120 (Small)
Under 99 -112 (Small)

GL
 
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Its all about pace for me....they had a nice one going all Q then seemed to go alittle cold. I also wasnt paying close attention to the game....So I oculd be wrong
 
Sometimes I just dont see the post in time..I wish there was some sort of sound that went off when you had a post in your thread...

Without OT its definetly an under 8 quick Port points and 5:30 minutes dep just 18 pts...you need a much quicker tempo but I think rythym is the better word...even 90 second droughts kill ya....

Feel free to ask me 2nd H thoughts just try to do it soon after half...I ahve no problem sharing them...
 
like the plays, regret my Detroit play, and was busy with homework so did put nothing on Houston, bummer.
 
Maybe you get some 2nd half value.....stinking it upon the totals personally ...knew after some slow offensive starts I probably should layoff the Suns under...

just rooting big for NJ and the over 97....regretting passing on the 2nd H Under in DET I just didnt feel I was really paying attention and last nite that cost me in the Sac- Orl game...

GL
 
i'm usually pretty good but i like bouncing ideas off guys like yourself
 
If I ever meet Vince Carter I'm going to kick him in the Nuts plain and simple, fuck that bitch

3 minutes into the 4th and 0 points have been scored
 
the almight sign that it was over when they couldnt break 47 in the 3rd Q....I have these key numbers in my head and I thought that was huge.....

Its amazing how Vince is playing so well then nada, he was listed on the injury report so who knows really.....

I really stink at the present moment with totals.....

I see no comeback in Hou though...
 
eLet ATL ride with Ray Allen OUT.....lets hope they keep it close. Sometimes even though it seems easy athletes have that mental letdown knowing its opponent is not full strength.....added some more 2nd H above
 
Well I have sucked on totals past few days....

Rule # 1 regarding NEVER EVER play and UNDER on a GS game IF th Total drops throughout the Day.....Never!
 
Ray out damn I will look at the 2nd h under what you think?
 
Good I would feel gulity if I alone was leading you to the slaughter...

49 aint bad...we still look decent...4 now...
 
Actually doubling on the heat 2nd H over but now @ 94.5 -113.....so really now a medium play......gonna go with MIAMI ML +185 (small)
 
I sat out the 2nd h GL. I hate the miami heat or you could call them them the wade heat.
 
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