NBA Tuesday Updated
Quick thoughts after a solid Monday nite....Wiz were one of those games if I could I would have wagered enough to buy a house...unfortunately all I got was a cup of coffee out of the deal......I love those bad lines especially when road chalk is involved....my confidence is building......
Dallas @ NJN -
Have no idea what the hold up is on releasing a line but would guess its similiar to what we saw versus Washington. Generally Wiz are considered slightily better then NJ but with the way Wash crushed them it could deflate the Mavs value some...so looking for DAL -3.5 here off the top of my head.....Think NJ though plays defense nearly as bad as Washington though and we could get a cheap total around 196 -198 based on reputation....
Now its out opened -1.5 and now -2.5. I have to caution against playing Dallas though. I had Dal as closer to PK versus Wash and think maybe we should have seen Dal -1 here...so its alittle fat with expectation Mavs wil automatically bounce back. However what makes this a bounce back situation the mere fact they lost a game? That makes no sense to me then. I didnt realize that Dallas was expected to win every nite and when they dont its a bounce back situation. Mavs are good but far from great so I dont see why they can just snap there fingers and play better tonite and win. They did start 0-4....So thats flawed logic. Its the same ole story which side if any has value due to perception. I dont like nJ at all lately but people overlook the fcat there schedule was brutal for 3 weeks. Now they are getting some rest here 2 days since the last game. I dont se the B to B presenting a problem for Dallas. I do like th eover alot at this number biut gonna let it develop and see where it stands later. Mavs had won 9 straight before losing in NJ last season laying -2. With more research that line seemed inflated due to the fact NJ got smoked in Dallas...if this continue to rise to 3 or better NJ will gather steam as avalue play IMO..
Port @ Det -
This is DET's highest line this season but was 11.5 originally now down to +10. Blazers either win SU as dogs or lose ATS....so do you think the can win in Motown?? If not could be a good idea to fade them ATS BUT they did actually cover ATS and fail to win SU in Motown last season. Blazers seem to be something around 101-88 losers when they travel so that would point to an under here but not sure....Blazers actually played well vs DET last year and Randolph played well....if anything I might entertain the Blazers 1st Half....you would hate fading Pistons off a SU loss but also they began a road trip in Dallas after this...could be a lookahead sandwich type but I would always say no team wants to starts a trip on a losing streak...since the opener away Blazers have scored 85-89 in there road contests..while DET after the 1st 2 games at home DET has scored 100++...
Its scary how similiar Blazers road finals are after there road opener. They lost 89-102 the first two , then 89-101 , 87-100, then they lose 90-118 @Boston but follow it with an 86 -68 win @NJ , and after that lose 85 -105...there certainly is more then a trend. It really IMO has to do with the lack of second scoring option that causes Port to have droughts late in games when the opponent is keying on Zach Randolph.
How scary is DET at home?? How bout 8 home games and 4 of which were with in 1 POINT of the spread. Which makes me wonder who steamed the Blazers here? I mean a HOT team goes down in Charlotte and I owuld guess bettors would lineup to play the pistons in a bounce back spot versus one of if not the NBA's worst away team. Seems odd but as I said DET hasnt seen such a big line but Blazers have...
The KEY here is Portland is playing no DEFENSE of late allowing near 52% from the floor thats insane. With the recent spurt in DET's offense it comes out to DET scoring about 106 here...that alone makes and UNDER hard to take but still if they get that 85 , 86 that they are avg its below 193.5.....this game is just to tight for me to call.....if not for the fact DET has been awful laying chalk I might dive in with them...Blazers stink but have 3 wins and 2 losses below 7 pts in its last 5 trips to Motown...I have to say that DET home court value is not what it appears to be by looking atthe numbers..I owuld say its closer to -9 then the opener of -11.5 which is why I am guessing we saw this get hit hard...a closer game
should help the overand I have to lean Blazers 1st H +5.5 or better then +10.5 ...
<LI class=morehot>Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Detroit. <LI class=morecool>Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
GS @ Houston -
JRich's is OUT for the trip. After this SA game I actually love the UNDER and hope it gets inflated. GS generally doesnt score as much on the road and even less when faced with a back to back. No way Hou wants to run up and down and with how GS is playing expect Houston to dictate tempo....I think we see a 200++ total...its limited but GS 89 for and 93 against on no rest and Hou on 2 days rest is 89 for and 73 against..7 games played and 7 unders....while this wont qualify as a 130/100 theory play its fairly close ......Last nite GS defensively..<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblclbg5 align=right><TD>49-94</TD><TD>13-23</TD><TD>18-19</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>37</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Only 1 of four meetings saw 200 pts last season and it need OT(GS has a history of struggling to break 90 in Houston)....I said I wont be suprised to see a 200++ total but guessing I would expect 197 and hope for 200 or better....would have to like Houston here as well depending on the number though.....
Generally Houston is regarded as about 2 pts weaker in spreads...Gonna wait here and missed -7 but this still seems fair at 7 /7.5....The total is a little lwoer then I wanted but still with how HOU is shutting teams down and the struggles GS had last nite what should change...rockets have scored 81-86 in 5 of the past 6 at home...might just dive in @ 195 -110
Sac @ Suns
Gonna wait on a number till I comment....dislike the long rest for Pho but they already have 3 games on 3 days rest with avgs of 106 -106...This will be a 4th in 5 nites for Kings against a very rested PHO squad and off a buzzer beating three...OT would have been beautiful..
Artest appears OUT. Would actually lean UNDER at this high number....thought -8 was fair but it apears that Suns got STEAMED so I am willing to play the -10 but hoping "joe public" comes in and knocks it down to -9.5 again....A very bad spot for Sac to be w/o Artest this should get ugly...4th game in 5 nites started in Dallas , then in SA , off day fly back to Sac lose on a buzzer beater and out to Phoenix(obviously a short trip)....so Suns (maybe 1st half as well ) and Under
Atlanta @ Seattle-
Still think with how Sonics are playing they are inflating Hawks lines.....doesnt -4 seem more fair?? Anyway with out research in a revenge (yeah right!) matchup the points like attractive.....for a total gonna say the over interests me but not crazy about it over 200...
Looked at the 1st matchup and Joe Johnson was 12 of 30 and they still went to OT!! Could be a disturbing trend thoughas J is 7 /17 and 4/17 past 2 vs Seattle. Also note that Hawks took 10 more FTs in the 1st meeting but hit just 2 more then Sea...
As I said earlier an over seemed interesting at 199 but well above 200 just not for me. Cant see anyone playing worse defense then Port lately and Hawks won SU and managed 107 (203 were scored)... 40-78 (51.3) , 8-17 (47.1) , 19-26 (73.1)...Sonics have hit the century mark in just 4 of 10 and a missed shot here and there ATL is down to 101 or 102...like the over but it seems tight and it seems Sonics just have no consistency on offense...Hawks struggle at the FT line but there FG % allowed is considerably better but we know Sonics love them threes and Hawks allowin a gross 43 % away... but nly 2 ATLopponets scored 100 in a road game...
Miami @ LAC -
Until the heat do a little better against quality road opponnets they scare me away. I do seem to think 189 is to low for this total....so looking atth eover.......
Basically the heat are playing much better taking 4 staright ATS but think I wil stay away from a side. really like the over here. Heat much improved on offense really cant do much to stop other teams offenses. Iplayed the over 190 -110 but still looking at it....
Will look at the decent sized college card as well...should have alot here
Quick thoughts after a solid Monday nite....Wiz were one of those games if I could I would have wagered enough to buy a house...unfortunately all I got was a cup of coffee out of the deal......I love those bad lines especially when road chalk is involved....my confidence is building......
Dallas @ NJN -
Have no idea what the hold up is on releasing a line but would guess its similiar to what we saw versus Washington. Generally Wiz are considered slightily better then NJ but with the way Wash crushed them it could deflate the Mavs value some...so looking for DAL -3.5 here off the top of my head.....Think NJ though plays defense nearly as bad as Washington though and we could get a cheap total around 196 -198 based on reputation....
Now its out opened -1.5 and now -2.5. I have to caution against playing Dallas though. I had Dal as closer to PK versus Wash and think maybe we should have seen Dal -1 here...so its alittle fat with expectation Mavs wil automatically bounce back. However what makes this a bounce back situation the mere fact they lost a game? That makes no sense to me then. I didnt realize that Dallas was expected to win every nite and when they dont its a bounce back situation. Mavs are good but far from great so I dont see why they can just snap there fingers and play better tonite and win. They did start 0-4....So thats flawed logic. Its the same ole story which side if any has value due to perception. I dont like nJ at all lately but people overlook the fcat there schedule was brutal for 3 weeks. Now they are getting some rest here 2 days since the last game. I dont se the B to B presenting a problem for Dallas. I do like th eover alot at this number biut gonna let it develop and see where it stands later. Mavs had won 9 straight before losing in NJ last season laying -2. With more research that line seemed inflated due to the fact NJ got smoked in Dallas...if this continue to rise to 3 or better NJ will gather steam as avalue play IMO..
Port @ Det -
This is DET's highest line this season but was 11.5 originally now down to +10. Blazers either win SU as dogs or lose ATS....so do you think the can win in Motown?? If not could be a good idea to fade them ATS BUT they did actually cover ATS and fail to win SU in Motown last season. Blazers seem to be something around 101-88 losers when they travel so that would point to an under here but not sure....Blazers actually played well vs DET last year and Randolph played well....if anything I might entertain the Blazers 1st Half....you would hate fading Pistons off a SU loss but also they began a road trip in Dallas after this...could be a lookahead sandwich type but I would always say no team wants to starts a trip on a losing streak...since the opener away Blazers have scored 85-89 in there road contests..while DET after the 1st 2 games at home DET has scored 100++...
Its scary how similiar Blazers road finals are after there road opener. They lost 89-102 the first two , then 89-101 , 87-100, then they lose 90-118 @Boston but follow it with an 86 -68 win @NJ , and after that lose 85 -105...there certainly is more then a trend. It really IMO has to do with the lack of second scoring option that causes Port to have droughts late in games when the opponent is keying on Zach Randolph.
How scary is DET at home?? How bout 8 home games and 4 of which were with in 1 POINT of the spread. Which makes me wonder who steamed the Blazers here? I mean a HOT team goes down in Charlotte and I owuld guess bettors would lineup to play the pistons in a bounce back spot versus one of if not the NBA's worst away team. Seems odd but as I said DET hasnt seen such a big line but Blazers have...
The KEY here is Portland is playing no DEFENSE of late allowing near 52% from the floor thats insane. With the recent spurt in DET's offense it comes out to DET scoring about 106 here...that alone makes and UNDER hard to take but still if they get that 85 , 86 that they are avg its below 193.5.....this game is just to tight for me to call.....if not for the fact DET has been awful laying chalk I might dive in with them...Blazers stink but have 3 wins and 2 losses below 7 pts in its last 5 trips to Motown...I have to say that DET home court value is not what it appears to be by looking atthe numbers..I owuld say its closer to -9 then the opener of -11.5 which is why I am guessing we saw this get hit hard...a closer game
should help the overand I have to lean Blazers 1st H +5.5 or better then +10.5 ...
<LI class=morehot>Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Detroit. <LI class=morecool>Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
GS @ Houston -
JRich's is OUT for the trip. After this SA game I actually love the UNDER and hope it gets inflated. GS generally doesnt score as much on the road and even less when faced with a back to back. No way Hou wants to run up and down and with how GS is playing expect Houston to dictate tempo....I think we see a 200++ total...its limited but GS 89 for and 93 against on no rest and Hou on 2 days rest is 89 for and 73 against..7 games played and 7 unders....while this wont qualify as a 130/100 theory play its fairly close ......Last nite GS defensively..<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblclbg5 align=right><TD>49-94</TD><TD>13-23</TD><TD>18-19</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>37</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Only 1 of four meetings saw 200 pts last season and it need OT(GS has a history of struggling to break 90 in Houston)....I said I wont be suprised to see a 200++ total but guessing I would expect 197 and hope for 200 or better....would have to like Houston here as well depending on the number though.....
Generally Houston is regarded as about 2 pts weaker in spreads...Gonna wait here and missed -7 but this still seems fair at 7 /7.5....The total is a little lwoer then I wanted but still with how HOU is shutting teams down and the struggles GS had last nite what should change...rockets have scored 81-86 in 5 of the past 6 at home...might just dive in @ 195 -110
Sac @ Suns
Gonna wait on a number till I comment....dislike the long rest for Pho but they already have 3 games on 3 days rest with avgs of 106 -106...This will be a 4th in 5 nites for Kings against a very rested PHO squad and off a buzzer beating three...OT would have been beautiful..
Artest appears OUT. Would actually lean UNDER at this high number....thought -8 was fair but it apears that Suns got STEAMED so I am willing to play the -10 but hoping "joe public" comes in and knocks it down to -9.5 again....A very bad spot for Sac to be w/o Artest this should get ugly...4th game in 5 nites started in Dallas , then in SA , off day fly back to Sac lose on a buzzer beater and out to Phoenix(obviously a short trip)....so Suns (maybe 1st half as well ) and Under
Atlanta @ Seattle-
Still think with how Sonics are playing they are inflating Hawks lines.....doesnt -4 seem more fair?? Anyway with out research in a revenge (yeah right!) matchup the points like attractive.....for a total gonna say the over interests me but not crazy about it over 200...
Looked at the 1st matchup and Joe Johnson was 12 of 30 and they still went to OT!! Could be a disturbing trend thoughas J is 7 /17 and 4/17 past 2 vs Seattle. Also note that Hawks took 10 more FTs in the 1st meeting but hit just 2 more then Sea...
As I said earlier an over seemed interesting at 199 but well above 200 just not for me. Cant see anyone playing worse defense then Port lately and Hawks won SU and managed 107 (203 were scored)... 40-78 (51.3) , 8-17 (47.1) , 19-26 (73.1)...Sonics have hit the century mark in just 4 of 10 and a missed shot here and there ATL is down to 101 or 102...like the over but it seems tight and it seems Sonics just have no consistency on offense...Hawks struggle at the FT line but there FG % allowed is considerably better but we know Sonics love them threes and Hawks allowin a gross 43 % away... but nly 2 ATLopponets scored 100 in a road game...
Miami @ LAC -
Until the heat do a little better against quality road opponnets they scare me away. I do seem to think 189 is to low for this total....so looking atth eover.......
Basically the heat are playing much better taking 4 staright ATS but think I wil stay away from a side. really like the over here. Heat much improved on offense really cant do much to stop other teams offenses. Iplayed the over 190 -110 but still looking at it....
Will look at the decent sized college card as well...should have alot here
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