NBA TNT Thursday Lines/Discussion 12/19/08

I'm sensing both puppies win outright tomorrow...

Orlando is coming off a 5 game Western road swing, first game back situation. Spurs are 7-3 SU (6-4 ATS) L10 against Magic.

Portland is struggling right now, even though they demolished a lame-ass Sac team last time out. Phoenix owns Portland 10-0 SU (8-2 ATS) L10 against Magic and 23-8-1 ATS L32!
 
Phoenix is definitely dangerous in that game. They definitely do own Portland. Which also, of course, means Portland will be extra-psyched for this game now that they can finally play on Phoenix's level, plus with it being on TNT. I think both these lines are where they should be, too tight. Wait for Friday.
 
I think Phoenix's biggest trade problem will be shown on Portland. Still deciding on here, but for me its portland or nothing.

I'll have a writeup in a few days, esp after I watch the games to be sure, but phoenix will have problems in the west after that trade. Who on Phoenix stops Brandon Roy? The battle of the bigs inside should be interesting, with the scoring edge for phoenix and the rebounding edge for portland. prolly just sit out
 
gonna wait for the best line and hop on portland for small/medium

defense, rebounding, bench, home court, revenge

Portland should dominate the glass and play better D. Portland is the up and coming legit team that will win these types of ball games. Portland was surging, but tough ass scheduling fucked them into their only decent record. Double revenge. fast break fun to watch offense vs half court team that leads the league in rebounding differential at home.

"They've kind of bullied us," said Roy of the Suns, who have beaten Portland twice in Phoenix this season. "They've had their way with us for some time. I would love to try to beat them in their building, which would really be a statement game.
"But we play them here (in Portland), and we have to try to beat them wherever we can. We're going to go hard. They're going to be physical. We want to step up and play our best game of the year."

A determined Roy vs Jrich? not gonna be pretty
 
Give me 3 and I'm on Portland.

Five? I pass. It's razor sharp. ORL/SA is too tough to cap to find any legit angles, at least I'm not seeing them so far.

:shake:
 
Suns look like a possible 10 units stake, even ML!
Portland is the team to fade overall right now and with J-Rich on board, unless Blazers play with 7 guys on the court all game, I just don't see how will they cover all options of Suns on offense. They need 4 guys to stop Amara + Shaq and at least three guys to stop Nash + J-Rich. Portland has plenty of defensive stoppers for the rival's small forward, but Blake or Rodriguez on Nash? They can't guard him and you need to put pressure on Nash to stop the Suns. With J-Rich on board, I don't see them putting double team on Nash and leave Richardson or even Hill totally open. I honestly don't understand the way Pritchard built this team. So many stoppers on the 3 position, but not one truly solid option on PG or Center of the rival team (Oden is a year from becoming such force, too many fouls)...
 
health divol

just see this as a revenge spot for an underrated up and coming portland team vs a vastly overrated Phoenix team. bookmaker is holding out 5.5 while every other book is showing 5, so I'm not playin Portland yet. Will wait in the morning, won't be surprised by a move in either direction. really hoping people pound Phoenix to 3
 
Portland underrated?????? What is overrated than??? Phoenix +10??? Portland are public bet this season and you can see that in their lines. I see people that have no idea in basketball, take Portland and Cleveland each time. This is a public bet. Revenge? Don't see it. They lost 10 times in a row to Suns, so they had at least 9 revenge angles that they failed to take so far. If they win now, I doubt it will be due to that. Nash scored 6 from 7 from the field the last game between them. If he keeps it up, how will Portland win? I agree, Roy has advantage, but Barnes can guard him and also, unlike Suns, that usually win if Nash does well, there have been plenty of games where Roy was great, but Portalnd lost. The paint and what they do is much more important factor in Portland's wins and losses.
One of us will be right for sure :)
 
Phoenix matches up so well with portland and you can say this Portland team is much different blah blah blah but the Suns have already beat them twice this year and they did last year 3 times when Portland was a relatively similar team, although not as deep. Shaq and Amare limit Portland's rebounding advantage. Suns have won 4 of their last 5 games even staying competitive against the lakers with no Richardson or Shaq.

looking at Portland against "contenders":

lost by 20 @ LAL
won by 1 vs. SA
lost by 11 @ PHX
lost by 7 @ UTH
won by 2 in overtime vs. HOU
won by 7 @ ORL
lost by 5 @ NOK
lost by 10 @ PHX
won by 15 vs. NOK (New Orleans won in Denver 105-101 the night before on TNT Thursday)
won by 9 @ DET (what is Detroit's record on Sunday)?
lost by 15 @ BOS
lost by 1 vs. ORL (couldn't close the game - Steve Blake missed an insane number of free throws in final minute)
lost by 9 @ UTH

nothing too impressive from Portland. Phoenix has a lot to prove. Shaq looks a lot better than he did last year. Suns have dominated Portland, but if needed, Nash and Barbosa to backdoor in the end? +5 is far too generous
 
Phoenix are contenders? Maybe in 2005. Nothing too impressive from Portland but IMO this Phoenix team is weaker than it has been in the past 5 years or so. I would not lay 5 here but would definitely disagree with making a strong case for PHX based on past results between these two teams.
 
SAS +3.5..........Always like to play against a team coming home from a cross country trip, as linewatcher says. Especially if they went 5-0 ATS on the trip.


gl all!
 
Here is my total predictions


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 258pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=344 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 156pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 7606" width=208><COL style="WIDTH: 102pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4973" width=136><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #666699 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #666699 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #666699 1pt solid; WIDTH: 156pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #666699 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=208 height=18>San Antonio at Orlando</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; WIDTH: 102pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=136>91-97 188-192</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Phoenix at Portland</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">96-102 198-196</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Doesn't look like anything worth playing today
 
Nawlins do you use your total projections for your ATS selections ? Just curious wasnt sure if used a power ratings type setup for ATS selections...

Definetly in the camp of fading ORL off such a sucessful trip but have to look it at further ....:cheers:



 
Just looking at things now, but I'm thinking it's going to be real hard not to be on the Spurs here. 5-0 ATS road trip. Beyond that according to BC's road trip thread Eastern conference teams coming off of a 5+ game road trip being favored over a non conference opponent are 5-13 ATS. Teams just tend to do poor when they are favored 1st game home after a long roadie while they do well when dogged. Problem for me here is that it's the Spurs and even in the Magic are favored it's not like they are playing a lower level team. San Antonio will have their full attention.

Spurs 1-4 ATS on 0 days rest while the Magic are 3-0 on 2 days rest.

Only two of the spurs b2b's were at full health and they were 0-2 in those two games losing by 19 to the Rockets and beating the Hawks by 6 as 6.5 point favs.
 
]TIME BI TEAM POINT LINE GAME TOTAL
2008-12-18
17:05 PT 701 SAN ANTONIO SPURS +4 -110 192.5 Ov -110
702 ORLANDO MAGIC -4 -110 Un -110
2008-12-18
19:35 PT 703 PHOENIX SUNS +4 -110 203.5 Ov -110
704 PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS -4 -110 Un -110

my local has magic-4. i think will pound spurs here.. good luck fellas!!:cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
Nawlins do you use your total projections for your ATS selections ? Just curious wasnt sure if used a power ratings type setup for ATS selections...

Definetly in the camp of fading ORL off such a sucessful trip but have to look it at further ....:cheers:
Click to expand...

Yes I do but I have a range and several formulas. They must all agree for me to bet the side.PM me and we will talk about it.
 
Suns getting 5 looks way too easy and the public is eating it up.

Earlier this year in Phoenix.... Portland was in their early-start funk and had the lead deep into the 3rd. This was the same team "streak" wise that had lost by 40 to the Lakers a week before.

60% plus on a dog, and 90% ML? Eeeks.

J Rich will take time to gel, this team could barely beat a beat up the 7 man rotation of scrubs that is the Knicks, plus @home. 8 point win, but really a toss up S/U. I think the Suns can be very dangerous but Portland is one of the best home-court teams in the league. They had a 5 point lead against the Magic in the final minute and got screwed SU there.

Amare, and the Suns really dominate smaller front courts and feast on being better rebounders. Their defense though is swiss cheese and I've been very disappointed in Amare... I think you'll actually see Aldridge bring his A game tonight and outplay him.


As for Spurs, they're good on Thursday nights... and don't see them dropping 2 in a row here.
 
just checking in, and disagree a lot about this portland game, but that it probably due to my bias against phoenix and the trade. imo it is very similiar to Detroit's AI trade. trade in and get some sexy scorer leads to lines inflating for them and their cohesion as a group to fall. that is why I say overrated for phoenix. they are a team struggling to find their identity and seeming to make moves out of desperation but those moves were moves to hurt team chemistry and defense. Raja and Diaw were Nash's best friends on the team, and you replace him with Jrich. I watch a lot of jrih past couple yrs, and he is not a scorer. he is a shooter, a streaky athletic jump shooter that cannot play D. I'll get more into it after my finals

regarding this game, let me just say yes I had this line at Portland -7 (power ratings, not what I actually expected them to throw out, not at all surprised by -5) I mean please use logic when looking at htese lines. common opponent recently: Orlando. Phoenix -2 vs Orlando, and Portland was -5. That would suggest even Portland is 3 points better than Phoenix. Then you add in that Portland's home court advantage is one of the best in the league and you can easily get more than -5

some with argue this point with phoenix -2 was phoenix's first game with jrich. however, jrich inflated that line for phoenix, not the other way. proof: Orlando opened -1 @ phoenix, but money pushed it to Phoenix -2. Looking at openers, (Orlando -1 @ Phoenix, but +5 at Portland) this line is actually a joke is how low it is (esp now at 4)
 
You have many valid points SF Capper and I think that I had a few valid ones myself as well, probably just a different capping approach for the game (at least for this one). One of our theories will be the winning one in the end :)
Best of luck!
 
quoting this from andarmac's blanketts thread:

Portland -4

I keep see all this stuff about Phoenix getting back to the run and gun style. OK, is that really going to make them better? Especially here against a young Blazers team who I'm sure could outrun these guys if forced into a shootout. This total also suggests this might not be the up and down game that many on here are expecting, which is an advantage to the Blazers.

Of the Suns 7 road wins this year a grand total of 1 has come against a winning team, and that came in the first game of the year against the Spurs when they were a mess. The only 3 road wins outside the Spurs game the Suns have on the road this year against the Western Conference are against the T-Wolves (by 8 points), the Thunder (by 1 point) and the Kings (2 two points in overtime).

The Blazers are 8-2 at home and are physical and play tough defense up there. Their overall FG% against isn't that great but at home it's top 5 in the league. They have a ridiculous rebound margin at home while the Suns are very weak on the glass on the road getting out rebounded by an average of 6 per game.

I've been a bit long winded here but I'm having a tough time seeing how a shaky road team and quite frankly an overrated team is going to go into a very tough place and keep it close against a tough/physical team on their home floor where they play very hard every game
 
Definitely not an easy game and not one I chose to bet on. Will list one piece of info which no one has mentioned. Portland in their last 4 games shooting 3's. 21-81
 
Havent decided on the late game yet ...

Spurs +3 -120 {Level2}

Hoping to see a close one at half so I can add to SA...

GL:cheers:
 
how strong is that play SN?

level 3 seems like your strongest just making sure.

Spurs don't look good at all...but have to believe they wont lose by DD
 
Good pace with 46 shots each and neither can buy a bucket ....lots of 3s attempted 1/9 SA and 4/15 Orl only issue was no FTs 2/4 and 4/5 ...

31/92 need about 43 or 44/92 in the 2nd H unless you get more FTs or 3s made . WHich still is mid to upper 40's FG shooting .....

Teams usually play well 1st H when coming home and then struggle after the intermission....saw SA make a little run before half as well:cheers:

 
OSO$ said:
how strong is that play SN?

level 3 seems like your strongest just making sure.

Spurs don't look good at all...but have to believe they wont lose by DD
Click to expand...

yes , its a max play but from time to time I do play more on certain games ...regardless strong play ...:shake::cheers:
 
really

Bonner really needs to stop shootin....god he as awful...adds nothing but bricks and lousy defense

startin? goes to show how desperate Spurs r to get young body infusion regardless of talent
 
Spurs playing terrible on offense past 2 days but its really the core players who are killing them Parker , TD , Manu and even Finley from what I recall.

Just need a good spurt from them ...

Anyway really starting to like Portland ALOT . Going to be on Portland and the under lesser..:cheers:
 
Duncan next to Dwight is laughable...

Dwight is a beast...game changer, shot changer, down low cant be out muscled...give him an Amare mid-range game and look out
 
TNT :

Portland Blazers -4 {Level3} but really like this alot so
Portland Blazers -3.5 -120 {Level2}
Portland Blazers -4 {Level2}

Essentially 2 max plays ..

Under 204.5 {Level2}

Under 100 Suns TT {Level1} probably Level2

2nd Quarter -1 {level1}

3rd Quarter -1 {Level1}

No specific reason for the Quarters other then I dont like PHO when there starters are out hence the 2nd Q and hoping its close and Portland can pull away with another strong 3 rd Q....

Under because Portlands defense at home has been sick when it wasnt in the hectic schedule portion. Portland has always struggled to get to 100 vs Pho and think they are right around it probably tad higher . So for Portland to win and cash ATS then I believe Suns have to be less then 100....

Its now or never for PORT they are already 0-2 vs Pho and lost 11 straight meetings and just 3-17 L20 meetings....I had this more like -6 so getting nice value imo when its 33% lower then I feel it should be....

GL all !! :cheers:

 
This is the second game in a row where the Orlando starters played straight through during a blowout. Nelson especially loves to hoist up meaningless 3's when the game is already decided.
 
Damn Spurs . had it down to 6 pts and then go ice cold and win the 2nd H 49-46 which Hill missed a FT late for the Spurs cover ....only pissed because I love Portland and would love to have won something in that game to rollover....
 
t-dot said:
This is the second game in a row where the Orlando starters played straight through during a blowout. Nelson especially loves to hoist up meaningless 3's when the game is already decided.
Click to expand...

Guess those early season 4th Q chokes got to VanGundy ...:shake:
 
1st H Portland -2 {level1}

Parlay : Port -4 and Under 204.5 {Level1}

Thats all......GL

0-3 so far ..(0-2 Level2s and 0-1 Level3 }
 
couple of interesting TNT Thursday stats to this point

Eastern Conf. Favs are 7-0 ATS w/Orlando's cover over the Spurs

Games w/Western Conf teams at home are 7-2 to Over, and this current Port/Phx game looks like making that 8-2
 
miodzik said:
just played under 224.5 on live, i have over 204 so maybe will hit both of them:popcorn:
Click to expand...


Good Luck bro. Was thinking 1st H over and 2nd H under . With a lean to the 1st over which of course I said just make it simple and go under 204/205....bad idea....:cheers:
 
Well research killed me on the total . Was going to blindly play the over and just found reasons not to along with increasing total.....

2nd H :
Blazers -4 {Level3}

Parlay Port -4 and Und 103.5 {Level1}

:cheers:Still very confident Port wins this
 
Thanks SportsNut, but after end of first half i relaized i made mistake, was too hurry , i could wait till halftime and get under 230.5 ...oh well you never know how the quarter finishes, thought they would slow it down a bit...
 
Suns shot out of their minds in the 1st H

7/9 from three....

When I like the home fav who is down I never take the 2nd H over especially when your game line becomes 229....

Portland cant out gun Pho so that means their defense must improve with the reality that PHO cant just make every shot.

I am off on this total so just sharing my viewpoint not asking anyone to listen. The total running is either the sign of easy winner or fools gold...I dont want to find out which one..

Just dont think SUNS hit 58% for the game and a simple 4/9 from three gives 9 points to Portland which makes them +2 in the 1st H ratrher then -7......

GL
 
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