NBA Thursday

B

Billivy

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Last night 1-0 (+$1000)
Season 52-38-1 (+9050)


Miami/Detroit under 193.5 (550 to win 500)

This a very strong play on the numbers tonight. The only reason I believe this is not worthy of a larger bet is the fact that the way I'm thinkin about this game, I need it to stay competitive throughout the contest. I don't want someone getting out of hand and up 20 from a rediculous run, that's how a game like this goes over: a 110 to 85 contest. However, as far as the numbers go...I see an index (+2) for the collective seasons thus far for these two teams, obviously that's not the strong point...the strong point is these team's last 9 contests: here are some fun trends...

Under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.
Under is 6-2 in MIA last 8 home games.
Under is 10-1 in MIA last 11 vs. NBA Central.
Under is 11-2 in DET last 13 road games.
Under is 12-3 in DET last 15 vs. NBA Southeast.
Under is 19-7 in DET last 26 Thu. games.

It's not just the fact that these games have gone under either...it's the margin that they have...these two teams play much more deliberate and controlled when facing eachother...

6/2/06MIA 95 - DET 78MIA -4U 1795/31/06DET 91 - MIA 78DET -6U 180.55/29/06MIA 89 - DET 78MIA -2U 1835/27/06MIA 98 - DET 83MIA -3U 1845/25/06DET 92 - MIA 88MIA 6.5U 184.55/23/06DET 86 - MIA 91MIA 5.5U 1884/6/06MIA 82 - DET 95DET -0.0U 187.53/22/06DET 82 - MIA 73DET -7U 194.5


see my point? The fact that both teams have been giving up more points per game this season against other opponents just adds value to the play IMO...this is like the Spurs total we looked at earlier in the season..In the end, when determining totals, recent matchup history is the singe greatest stat to consider EVERYTIME, no question!....Soo like I said, if no team gets a crazy run and hits 60% from the field tonight...the number should look good, I'm only a small bit weary or the last two minutes in a right kind of contest pushing this game 20 more points, or the possibillity of OT..however those are small concerns...Miami have stepped it up a notch on D the last few games and I expect Detroit to follow suit tonight...Lookin at a 91-88 final
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With you on the under Bill. Also looking into Mia +3.5. Miami has no Shaq and Detroit has won 6 in a row. But Detroit had 4 days off. Im thinking they may not be as ready as Miami may be for this game. What do you think?
 
I'm locked in on this already at U192.5, but I just wanted to voice one concern.

Detroit w/o Big Ben and Miami w/o Shaq - do you feel this changes the dynamic of this matchup from the prior years?

Additional positive trends I noticed:

Detroit O/U on road 2-5
Miami O/U @ home 2-6

BOL to us :cheers:
 
I like this under as well, but this game will be unlike the past 8 games of past. Shaq and Ben are out, so this will be more guard play. However, I think this still goes under as despite the guard play, I expect the same milking clock as before, just now instead of shaq taking a mini-hook at the end of the shot clock, expect more DWade jump shots, so unless he goes crazy.. which is possible.. I expect an under here. Too big a rivalry and 4 days of rest for Detroit means they've been studying tape of Miami offense and will have Defensive legs ready. I like the writeup, so hopefully both of us win. Read my thread for more thoughts BOL
 
I was wondering the same thing Raktor. Without Shaq, Im thinking the Heat is a more fast-paced team.
 
billivy - opposite you tonight, but good health! I'm short on time, so cutting and pasting from my thread (lame, I know)...

These 2 teams have played under the total 8 straight, but 6 of the last 8 between these two were in the playoffs. Defense is key in the playoffs and I think you have to approach tonights game in a "regular season" context. Also, these two are playing a bit different this year and especially of late with Wallace gone from Mo Town and Shaq out. Both teams are scoring in the 100's last few and finding success when they do. This is a rivalry game, but I think the total is set a shade low. So far this year, Detroit has given up more points with 3 or more days rest than any other situation for days rest, which sort of goes against the normal logic. Add to that, Miami is most stingy this year with no rest - but they come in with 2 days rest tonight off a home win against Philly on 11/27. I expect a little quicker tempo tonight from both teams and a total to eek over the mark.

I got this at 192, so hopefully the total lands at 193 and we both win!
 
I played it under last night at 193. Detroit under on Thursday 7 of 10 and 5 straight and Miami 8-2 under on Thursday as well. GL
 
Like thids play a lot but with my recent totals success this week just gonna watch.
 
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