NBA Scheduling quirks for Monday

[redbearde]

First, the Hornets.

They're in the midst of a rather brutal run right now.

Sunday: Win AT Denver
Monday: day off
Tuesday: Win AT LA Lakers
Wednesday: Lose AT Portland
Thursday: day off
Friday: Lose at home to San Antonio (one game at home - still travelling)
Saturday: day off
Sunday: Win AT Philly
Monday: Gameday at Jersey against a Vince-less Nets.

This is the 5th game in seven days (6th in 8) of continual travel...

Wednesday at philly is another one day home before leaving again - look for a 76ers win there.

Saturday at Minny is another 5th game in 7 days...and the day after a running night in Memphis. Minnesota perhaps gets a win? Finally?

while I like VC and all.....it's really been Richard Jefferson that's given the Nets the boost this year. And not having Vince throw up stupid ass double-covered shots all night can only help them.

I've made no plays yet, but guess where my lean is...

Nets

Have had a day on and then a day off since the beginning of the month. This continues Wednesday at Boston when they will get destroyed. On Saturday, they'll have a B2B at home against Miami, but it isn't like that should be a huge problem for them unless Flash comes back this week.

Kings and Jazz are both coming off days off. Nothing consequential there, I think. The Jazz have a 3rd in 4 on Saturday, but I wouldn't back Indiana and their 4th quarter fading asses with my money...

Denver just finished a 4th in 5 with a win at Indiana....again, with a spectacular Pacer meltdown in the 2H. Now they are at home for a while. Cleveland is at the end of a 5th in 7 and the end of a road trip. After tonight, the Cavs go home for Orlando on Wednesday.

I'm currently giving Cleveland some thought at over 3:1. They may well just wear out in the 2H, but one thing they do have which the Pacers don't is a reliable game finisher in Lebron. I love how he was saying they've never played better offensively than last night against the Clippers...I mean it's this year's Clippers.

Anyway, I've been impressed with just how unimpressive the Nuggets have been.

Denver is 4-3 SU

Losses: vsNew Orleans, @New York, @Boston
Wins: @Washington, @Indiana, vsSeattle, @Minnesota

Cleveland is 4-3 SU

Losses: @Dallas, @Phoenix, @Utah
Wins: vsNew York, @Golden St, @SacK, @Clips

Cleveland should out-rebound the Nugs, and the Cavs should outscore them in at least the 1st and 4th Qs. Cleveland's defense is generally better, allowing less than 100ppg while Denver allows over 103.

Denver averages 106ppg offensively, but against teams that focus on defense....like New Orleans and Boston, they scored only 88 and 93 respectively, and the only reason they got to 93 was because the Celtics gave not a shit to defend in the 4th. Nor did they score all that much by playing a bunch of scrubs late in the game.

My thinking is this...if Cleveland doesn't get worn out in the 2H, then they can and likely will win this game. If they get worn down, then the defense will suffer, and AI and Anthony will shred tem.

Not sure any of this warrants Denver being a $3 fave.

 

[xpression syst_m]

yeah, hoping the hornets are flat tonight

 

[Slug]

Great info :cheers:

 

[JPicks]

leaning nets as well, but i was really hoping this line would move farther. not sure i'll play it unless i can get 2' or 3 (which I don't think I will).

disagree that the Nuggets will get outrebounded tonight as they're not a bad rebounding team. they average a board an a half a game less than the Cavs but outrebounded the Cavs 84-79 last year. I'd call it a wash. As far as the defense goes it's pretty much guranteed that the Nuggets are going to give up more points than the Cavs as they play at a much faster pace. In equal terms the Nuggets have actually played better defense to this point in the season than the Cavs.

Great thread as I couldn't agree more about the scheduling quirks for tonight. GL with whatever you decide red.

 

[redbearde]

In equal terms the Nuggets have actually played better defense to this point in the season than the Cavs.

What does that mean?

Do you mean they play better defense because they give up less proportionately? Best way of looking at that in my mind is opposing FG%.

Over the last 5 games, Denver has allowed opponents 47.2% while Cleveland has allowed 43.9%.

Overall, Denver allowed 45.3% and Cavs allowed 44.7%. That difference isn't much, I admit, but it's not like it's better for Denver....

Also, over last 5, Cleveland allowed 24.7% from 3pt land, and Denver allowed 34.6%.

Denver allows 52.5 rebounds per game at home(28th in the NBA), and Cleveland grabs 47.4 rebounds per game on the road.

Denver also grabs 52 rebounds per game at home, but the Cavs only allow 41.2 on the road.

Again, with the up-tempo style, their rebounds are going to be inflated.

Where is Denver better defensively?

I haven't made a wager, mind you, and my thinking is in terms of a ML dog again......the Cavs at 330 looks damned fuckin juicy to me at this point.

 

[redbearde]

and I really don't like being the only person on this side, either...

 

[redbearde]

and Jesus Christ...for scheduling quirks, consider that Denver has just gotten home off a road trip out east.

They played 5 games last week, including 2 B2bs on Thursday/Wednesday, and Friday/Saturday....

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/teams/den/schedule;_ylt=Aj7EpofMhA8stxwqkclUVMB70bYF

does that sound like a well-rested bunch to anyone? I keep reading how Denver has had "a few days off" and should be well-rested at home, and it just ain't so.

Sure, Denver could win and cover. So could the Cavs. But I'm kinda vexed about why everyone loves the tar out of the Nuggets...

 

[redbearde]

it also doesn't hurt the Cavs chances that donyell marshall is out...

hehe...

 

[JPicks]

Cavs also had Larry Hughes back off injury last night and limping in the 2nd half. Pavlovic only played 6 minutes because of back spasms. They're going to need those guys tonight to hang with Denver. As far as the defense goes I typically use efficiency ratings. Either way I think you've got yourself convinced on a Cavs ML play and your record speaks for itself. GL

 

[redbearde]

Oh, I'm not at all convinced. I'm confused. I may end up essentially forced to take it though, because I don't see a more than 70% likelihood of a Nuggets win, and I'm currently looking at +340......

 

[redbearde]

I don't understand the defensive efficiency rankings.

Because I think the Mavs play a helluva lot better defense than the Wizards and the Bucks.......and the Mavs are sandwiched between them.

 

[JPicks]

This kind of helps explain it via glossary terms and this is the rankings from last year. It's early in the season and you'll see Dallas move up and everybody settle into their expected spots.

 

[redbearde]

thanks man.