NBA Saturday

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Billivy

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Last night 1-0 (+$300)
Season 54-38-1 (+9850)


Toronto +3 (550 to win 500)

Obviously the Knicks have been horrible in the Garden this season. They cant seem to find a way to win @ home and have a sub-par record ATS on B2Bs as well. I understand this is a bad spot for Toronto. A B2B on the road off a win last night in Boston...but for someone to not see value in taking points from the Knicks on their own B2B after a tiring loss in which the starting 5 played a TON of minutes, would be rediculous. I love how Toronto's been closing out games recently, it's understood that they are horrific on the road, but with two wins in their last 3 road games...i think they've started to turn it around. The same cant be said for NY right now. They've been booed off the court already this season, and both teams are traveling from the night before. As far as situations, i feel this to be an even playing field...that being said, I love how the Raptors match up against these Knicks. The hottest player on the court tommorow night will be Bosh, and I expect his momentum and youth to carry this young Raptors team late in the game with some help from garbajosa and ford who have been pretty hot themselves recently!. If you want a better look at how these teams have played recently take a look at their recent matchups...

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>3/21/06</TD><TD class=datacell>NY 109 - TOR 114</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR -2.0</TD><TD class=datacell>O 211</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>2/15/06</TD><TD class=datacell>NY 98 - TOR 96</TD><TD class=datacell>NY 3.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 196.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>2/3/06</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR 104 - NY 90</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR -6.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 211.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>1/15/06</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR 129 - NY 103</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR 1.5</TD><TD class=datacell>O 209</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>4/12/05</TD><TD class=datacell>NY 93 - TOR 105</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR 6.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 205.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>1/19/05</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR 98 - NY 81</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR -4.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 197.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

...New York hasn't covered a line this large in over 6 contests!...I gotta believe that betting against NY laying points to a superior team off a 1-6 spot st8 up @ home this season is serious value
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I actually liked Toronto as a pick as soon as I seen the line. I am counting myself in on the pick. GL
 
As crappy as the Knicks are playing, I think they are "due" for a win at the Garden...GL on your pick, gonna lay off this one...
 
until this theory is proven different i'm goin with it...

i'm gonna bet against the knicks everytime they're expected for a st8 up win...and i'm gonna be on them everytime they're not supposed to compete...lol
 

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Posted: 12/2/2006 10:25:09 AM



***Adding***

Indiana +7 (220 to win 200)
Indiana under 212 (220 to win 200)

I love this spot but I'm not going big on any game where I have to take the inferior team on the road. ( i feel in the long run that could prove a costly mistake to do so)...however Indiana has been pretty strong on B2Bs this season and the same cannot be said for Denver. The Pacers are also strong ATS on the road this season and Denver again has not been. The spot is strong enough with Indiana off a tough loss last night and Denver off the win. Denver's got that third man on the boards, soo in games like these...i expect them to slow down the pace a little and count on their rebounding. In that case, I see a little added value with the 7 points. Pacers are still stung from that home loss to the nuggets last season and I see a lot more motivation overall for them tonight. as far as the total, I know Denver is the highest scoring team on the planet right now, but their scoring has gone down on B2Bs this season and i feel this is a high bar to set for a game of this emotional importance and physical fatigue on both ends Last few matchups show this number could be off by a decent margin...(again, i know SOME things have changed...but teams tend to fall back into old tendencies with certain matchups)

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>3/15/06</TD><TD class=datacell>IND 99 - DEN 101</TD><TD class=datacell>DEN 3.0</TD><TD class=datacell>O 193.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>1/4/06</TD><TD class=datacell>DEN 106 - IND 86</TD><TD class=datacell>DEN -6.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 195</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>3/3/05</TD><TD class=datacell>DEN 96 - IND 87</TD><TD class=datacell>DEN -3.5</TD><TD class=datacell>P 183</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>1/29/05</TD><TD class=datacell>IND 88 - DEN 95</TD><TD class=datacell>DEN 7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>U 186</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>3/7/04</TD><TD class=datacell>DEN 94 - IND 103</TD><TD class=datacell>IND -3.0</TD><TD class=datacell>O 186.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/4/03</TD><TD class=datacell>IND 71 - DEN 60</TD><TD class=datacell>IND -7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 179</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>12/13/02</TD><TD class=datacell>IND 94 - DEN 72</TD><TD class=datacell>IND -13.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 181.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>12/7/02</TD><TD class=datacell>DEN 92 - IND 81</TD><TD class=datacell>DEN 9</TD><TD class=datacell>U 177</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>12/4/01</TD><TD class=datacell>IND 104 - DEN 96</TD><TD class=datacell>Push -8</TD><TD class=datacell>O 194.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/28/01</TD><TD class=datacell>DEN 85 - IND 99</TD><TD class=datacell>IND 2.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 192.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


now yes i understand that only the first 4 or five are pertinant...why did i show the last ten?? b/c i feel it's important to show that a lot of the times with these cross conference matchups, teams come out a little more tentitive and undecided as to what gameplan to go with...it's my contention that the first quarter might hit as low as 40 points...which would make the over extreemly difficult to cover without OT
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thoughts on Houston, they were set to fall big to phoenix 2 nights ago, now they have a few days rest and the comfort of home playing cleveland off b2b. i like the matchups for houston not huge but enought to win.
btw i play money lines and this is sitting at -6.
thanks for your time.
 
yah the spread scares me off this...i dont know what the exact moneyline is on this and im too lazy to look...-200? somthin like that...more?....i dont think you can make that play everyday and make money over the course of a season
 
billivy said:
until this theory is proven different i'm goin with it...

i'm gonna bet against the knicks everytime they're expected for a st8 up win...and i'm gonna be on them everytime they're not supposed to compete...lol


I agree very strongly with that theory.. Not so sure where I am with who wins the NYK & Tor game though....

Really like Indy catching 7 and the under 212 ...GL
 
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