NBA Road Chalk 4.9

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
haven't been playing man ML dogs anyway...

ML dogs: 89-151, 37.08%, +30.87 units
Spreads: 190-176-16, 49.74%, +16.27 units

Magic -3.5 (-110) 2 units

Before I overthink this one, I'm playing it. The Bucks have completely sucked total ass recently, and they've been shutting down players (the Bucks/Celtics game on April 4th was frickin hysterical - both teams sat EVERYONE). There's no telling who WON'T play for the Bucks, and Orlando's healthy...Arroyo is contributing again, and we SHOULD see absolute fucking domination by Howard on the interior.

For some recent history everyone should be aware of:
03/21/2007 vs LA Clippers L 104 - 103 L (-3) O (194½)
03/25/2007 vs Detroit L 121 - 95 L (4) O (186½)
03/26/2007 at Houston L 106 - 87 L (12½) U (201)
03/28/2007 at Dallas L 105 - 103 W (13) O (202½)
03/30/2007 at Charlotte L 97 - 81 L (4½) U (206)
04/01/2007 vs Washington L 121 - 107 L (5) O (215)
04/03/2007 vs New Orleans L 119 - 101 L (-2) O (201½)
04/04/2007 vs Boston W 98 - 89 W (-4½) U (192½)
04/06/2007 at Atlanta L 115 - 102 L (5) O (194½)
04/07/2007 vs New York L 118 - 113 L (-2) O (196)
04/09/2007 vs Orlando N/A

So they covered against boston laying 4.5ish. Why? Because Milwaukee failed to tank as well as the Celtics that night.

Home team's been covering in this series, but that shouldn't matter. Orlando desperately needs this W, and MilK desperately wants this L.

Must be a confusing time for a Hawks, Bucks, or Celtics fan..."Go Opposition!":down:

Maybe I'm wrong, and Redd and Williams both play AND try their damnedest to win, but I just think that's very unlikely. Best Case scenario, the Magic win in a romp. .....Something like 98-72. Worst case, Magic squeak out a 1 pt win.

Line movement is weird. You reversies can jump all over that. I'm happy.

'an_horse'
 
not for me buddy. There will be definite value in that one, but I don't think I can fade the Stones right now. Now, a spread play I might sympathize with...
 
I also expect Tmac and Yao to play tomorrow. The Rockettes are serious about winning right now. That's another reason I'm not too keen on the Warriors tomorrow. I do think they'll win, but I think the Jizz might give quite the effort in an attempt to keep up on Houston.

Depending on the line, I may take the clippers too. I think we should all be eyeing the fade-the-mavs train closely every game.
 
Kevin Wilis signed a 10 day contract with the Mavs? LMAO!!!

I love that quote from AJ there "If we've got to depend on Kevin Willis, shame on us"

Way to welcome him to the team Avery :smiley_acbe:
 
don't touch Kevin Willis :D what a legend :cheers:

GL tonight Red, I skipped yesterday (Easter) but I'm in tonight. :shake:
 
GL tonight Red.

I don't care what the Mavs are saying. I'll be giving seious consideration to the Clipps. I doubt Howard plays. Why play him off an ankle injury when he's had problems all year? If you give the Mavs the choice I think they'd rather play the Clipps in the first round rather than the Warriors. I'm not saying that they'll lose on purpose, just wondering what their "real" motivation will be. They've got plenty of opportunites to secure the #1 seed other than tonight.

The Jazz at 2:1 would certainly be worth a look. I won't be playing it, but I expect them to get it together sooner rather than later.

Not a whole lot of options in the ML department tonight.
 
DuY!, thanks bro! And to you!

Rod_Steel, yessir...he did indeed sign with the Mavs. He's wearing elbow pads...hahaha. Apparently he's been tossing Diop into the stands during practice.

Satyr, let's win some tonight, bro!

JPicks, at 2:1, perhaps so, but it keeps dropping, and by 10pm or so, I might even be forced to play the Warriors........

Look at this insanity:

Utah is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 games
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Utah is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Utah is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
 
yeah, but not so much at home recently. As long as Baron doesn't get himself chucked again, I think they will win. Cover....I didn't like -6. At -4 or -3.5, I might have to play it tho...
 
redbearde said:
Look at this insanity:

Utah is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 games
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Utah is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Utah is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Click to expand...

Just to qualify that, slightly.

Utah is 0-11-1 ATS their last 12 as the Fav

Utah is 8-4 ATS their last 12 as the Dog

----------------------------------------------

And that blog you provided contained this little nugget-


Suns concerned about chemistry
Click to expand...
One thing you never see with the Mavs is whining about touches, shots, etc. That apparently isn't the case with the Suns these days. The Chicago Tribune reports that Amare Stoudemire had a closed-door meeting with coach Mike D'Antoni after getting shut down in San Antoinio.
I'd normally be a bit skeptical about a report from a Chicago paper about a team located a thousand-some-odd miles away, but this quote from Steve Nash is pretty strong.
"We've got work to do, getting that spirit back. The chemistry's not great. We're not playing for each other as much as we need to right now. We're a little bit 'woe is me.' We've just got to be unselfish and work together for the team and not worry about ourselves.
"Our chemistry has to be one of our strongest characteristics, as it has been the past two years. This year it's fading. The ball sticks too often because guys are worried they're not going to get it back. One guy gets a little selfish, and then the next guy is like, 'Well, if he's not passing it, I may never see it.' And then the next one is a little more reluctant."
<!--...............-->Posted by Tim MacMahon
Click to expand...
 
BC, thanks for that qualification, though I think road vs home has a LOT more to say than "as a dog" or "as a fave" with this Jazz team.

And the suns nugget...I had no idea Phoenix had any upset players.......in the game at LA yesterday they looked great.

........anyway, I'm not playing the Jazz/Warriors game.

GL this eve, sir!
 
redbearde said:
And the suns nugget...I had no idea Phoenix had any upset players.......in the game at LA yesterday they looked great.
Click to expand...

Neither did I, which is why its a little gem of a find - anybody not looking good against that LA team at the moment is truly a rare beast (lol). But for Nash to air something like that, speaks of something beyond the trivial.

BOL tonight.
 
GOD FUCKING DAMNIT. I had it covered since before halftime, and not only does rafer alston miss a FT so that an 8pt lead becomes 7, then Dick bavetta the motherfucker calls a foul with 1.5 seconds left in the game.

at least I didn't lose, but ...

FUCK.
 
1-0-1 that should have been 2-0.

ML dogs: 89-151, 37.08%, +30.87 units
Spreads: 191-176-17, 49.74%, +18.27 units

I can't think straight right now. Talk to you guys tomorrow maybe.

...goddamnit that is so annoying...
 
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