NBA redcon ML Dogs Thurs - Sun
- Thread starter redbearde
- Start date
TheSportsThing
Go NY Go NY Go Go Go
Nice hit bro. Got it as well.
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
For Saturday, not fading Lebron, especially of a loss.
So no Pacers.
Not playing the Heat....134-99? Come on....2H play on the Hawks might be worthwhile.
So no Heat.
Warriors @ Magic, well, that's a possibility. Neither plays much defense, and Howard *should* have his way in the middle, but the Warriors can certainly try to outshoot them...and if the magic can get sucked into a 3pt shooting contest, then I like the Warriors.
...not sure if that's reasonable, but there ought to be a good bit of value on GSW at the very least. ...and it's not like the Heat was a particularly tough match.
So GSW is a possibility.
Charlotte @ Washington. Again, a possibility. Charlotte's been playing well recently, and Washington just got a big OT win last night. Possible letdown? Dunno....but again, there should be plenty of value on the Bobcats.
Blazers @ Knicks. Blazers won a hard fought game in Bucksland last night. I don't care that it's just the lowly bucks - I care that the Bucks were at home, the blazers kept their poise, and they managed a tough win with a last second go-ahead shot by aldridge. GJ guys. Not fading them for the pittance that the Knicks (who lost a tough one last night to a lethargic Stones squad) would offer. What a joke.
No Knickerbockers for me.
Memphis? come on...
New Orleans @ Houston...tough to get involved in a fade the west at home (anywhere but phoenix or memphis). Again, I think there may be value, but I'm not convinced Houston will suck again just cus Yao is out until the 1st round of the playoffs.....in fact, against a more athletic team like the Hornets, the Rockets might just be better off without his huge lumbering ass.
So while there may well be plenty of value, I'm not fading the streak...no Hornets for me.
Nets.......ya right. Diggler's playing, and they'll want to get that game back that they lost on Thursday. Poor nets. I bet they hoped to have better than a 3% chance at winning this game.
No Nets for me.
Utah owns denver. Denver is on the road. Need a LOT more than what +6 will give me to bother fading the Jazz at home. I think the odds are so short, I've even given thought to laying the Jazz chalk.
so no Denver for me.
The only one that REALLY jumps out at me is the Twolves. How are the Clips favored to anyone at this point? Tim Thomas is back, and that certainly helps. Getting Al Thornton (1 of 9 last night) to come off the bench again would probably help. But Kaman is still limited, and well..they're the Clippers.
course I'm talking about betting the Twolves...and I'm not so sure I want the gastric distress tonight.
So no Pacers.
Not playing the Heat....134-99? Come on....2H play on the Hawks might be worthwhile.
So no Heat.
Warriors @ Magic, well, that's a possibility. Neither plays much defense, and Howard *should* have his way in the middle, but the Warriors can certainly try to outshoot them...and if the magic can get sucked into a 3pt shooting contest, then I like the Warriors.
...not sure if that's reasonable, but there ought to be a good bit of value on GSW at the very least. ...and it's not like the Heat was a particularly tough match.
So GSW is a possibility.
Charlotte @ Washington. Again, a possibility. Charlotte's been playing well recently, and Washington just got a big OT win last night. Possible letdown? Dunno....but again, there should be plenty of value on the Bobcats.
Blazers @ Knicks. Blazers won a hard fought game in Bucksland last night. I don't care that it's just the lowly bucks - I care that the Bucks were at home, the blazers kept their poise, and they managed a tough win with a last second go-ahead shot by aldridge. GJ guys. Not fading them for the pittance that the Knicks (who lost a tough one last night to a lethargic Stones squad) would offer. What a joke.
No Knickerbockers for me.
Memphis? come on...
New Orleans @ Houston...tough to get involved in a fade the west at home (anywhere but phoenix or memphis). Again, I think there may be value, but I'm not convinced Houston will suck again just cus Yao is out until the 1st round of the playoffs.....in fact, against a more athletic team like the Hornets, the Rockets might just be better off without his huge lumbering ass.
So while there may well be plenty of value, I'm not fading the streak...no Hornets for me.
Nets.......ya right. Diggler's playing, and they'll want to get that game back that they lost on Thursday. Poor nets. I bet they hoped to have better than a 3% chance at winning this game.
No Nets for me.
Utah owns denver. Denver is on the road. Need a LOT more than what +6 will give me to bother fading the Jazz at home. I think the odds are so short, I've even given thought to laying the Jazz chalk.
so no Denver for me.
The only one that REALLY jumps out at me is the Twolves. How are the Clips favored to anyone at this point? Tim Thomas is back, and that certainly helps. Getting Al Thornton (1 of 9 last night) to come off the bench again would probably help. But Kaman is still limited, and well..they're the Clippers.
course I'm talking about betting the Twolves...and I'm not so sure I want the gastric distress tonight.
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
Warriors, my guess is I could see 3:1 by the end of the day...seeing 280 now.
Bobcats, this is dropping. It's down to 2:1...highest I see is a bit over 220 at MB and that's IF someone will take the chalk offer for the Wiz.
Timberwolves, 205...200.......2:1 is probably worthwhile.
Gotta give this some thought. It's about time I take a day or two off out of general principle.
still waiting on mrs.redbearde to run the numbers and come up with some lines. ...she should get em done by late afternoon, I guess.
redcon
Bobcats, this is dropping. It's down to 2:1...highest I see is a bit over 220 at MB and that's IF someone will take the chalk offer for the Wiz.
Timberwolves, 205...200.......2:1 is probably worthwhile.
Gotta give this some thought. It's about time I take a day or two off out of general principle.
still waiting on mrs.redbearde to run the numbers and come up with some lines. ...she should get em done by late afternoon, I guess.
redcon
CincyWillie
Pretty much a regular
much
lifesallover
Pretty much a regular
ok, first two plays...
Cavs -4 and Pacers +10.
:36_11_6: Nice middle. Congrats on the good early start
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Is that kid still posting in the box that thinks there is value in buying 3 pts every game?
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
no, he got himself banned.
I'm not clear on the situation you're talking about (literally just woke before 1pm tip), but whatever it is, it was with a different team in Phoenix than the Suns are now.
Last time they played in Phoenix, no Tony Parker, No Horry, and No Kurt Thomas (12 more FTs for shaq to miss)........and the Spurs still won.
I'm not clear on the situation you're talking about (literally just woke before 1pm tip), but whatever it is, it was with a different team in Phoenix than the Suns are now.
Last time they played in Phoenix, no Tony Parker, No Horry, and No Kurt Thomas (12 more FTs for shaq to miss)........and the Spurs still won.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Phoenix plays well after a home loss with a days rest 15-1 SU in the last 3 years.
I agree on the last game I was on SA, I will root for you guys, but probably a no play.
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
cashflowmatters
Where the cash flows, matters
I am gonna watch your thread to see if I can catch on to what you do to make $$ in this sport, as I mentioned in BAR thread it has my # for the last 2 yrs. I do very well in mlb that is my strongest sport then cfb & cbb. I promise not to curse you by playing your picks, I am here to learn what I am missing. GL always on all your plays.
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
okay, well, my -picks-, per se, are not very good. The thing I do is try to maximize value. For instance...
Say I can get a team +2 (-110). Well, I can also get them at a ML of +110. At matchbook, it's probably more like +120 or if action's going the other way, then it might even be +125.
But let's just consider +120. The difference between winning a bet with the +2 and the team just winning it SU is minimal...or it's the luck of the 3pt shot. It's one possession by one team in game of 80-100 possessions. But what does it cost you? 30 cents per dollar! That's 30% of each dollar wagered.
Consider that at -110, we have to win over 52.5%, and we're thrilled if we can reliably do 55%. That's a 2.5% edge we scrape for, but the difference between +2 and a pk is 30%!
that's generally the sort of thing I do. I play a lot of dogs, and I almost never play the dog points. I play the ML dog or I play the chalk spread.
If I can get +6, then I expect to get well over 2:1 (+225 or more, really), and I only need to win what....1 out of every 3 in order to make that profitable...
So I lose more of my games than most people, but I make a lot more money than most people. The goal with the ML dogs is to win 38% or better, and if you manage over 40%, then you'll be making a lot.
any of this making sense?
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
goddamnit. Sasha gets pushed to the floor in front of Beno, and they call a foul on Sasha for tripping. This puts the Kings up by 1. Kobe of course goes for the win, Mikki Moore fouls him on the arm, but no call.
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