NBA redcon ML dogs 3.10

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 59-67, 46.83%, +48.68units
Spreads: shitty, down about 9 units.

I despise this card. But I do like the garbage games at better than even money, so when mrs.redbearde tells me she thinks the Clippers will win by 3 or 4, and I can see Miami favored by 3 moving toward 3.5...I just GOTTA give it some thought.

so while this is true:
LA Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
LA Clippers are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games
LA Clippers are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games on the road
LA Clippers are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games on the road

this is also true:
Miami is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games
Miami is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games
Miami is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games at home
Miami is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games at home

and I especially like the 2 and 16 in their last 18...

Clippers and Heat have split the last 6 games SU, and the away team has won the last 2...Clips won the last meeting in Miami. They've split the last 10 SU and ATS.

and now I read that Dwyane Wade (knee), Marcus Banks (hamstring) and Udonis Haslem (ankle) are all questionable with various ailments.

Okay, so Wade has been adamant about not missing games. Riley has been talking about shutting him down for the rest of the season. Wade balks at that. Then, out of the blue, Wade sits out of the Warriors game. Then he plays at Atlanta...now he's questionable with his knee feeling so-so again. I'm guessing there's going to be a stretch where Wade plays in games where they're pretty sure they'll lose and perhaps not in games they aren't so sure about.

So it wouldn't shock me to see him not play tonight regardless of how his knee feels, but we ought to have some idea after shootaround this morning.

cashflowmatters,

So I've got a game with two of the worst teams in the league in what I really think of as a toss-up game, and I'm getting significant plus money on the Clippers. That's value in my mind. I'm not saying the Clippers will win. I'm saying I'm getting paid enough to bother betting it in the event that they win...though obviously I gotta think they can win before I'll bet them, too.

Rather like Portland @ Cleveland...I do think the Blazers *can* win, but it's not likely enough for me to mess with at only 2:1.

GL today, fellas...I haven't filled my bet yet...
 
Leaning on the Clips as well... Two fade teams playing... One with healthy role players while the other is desperate to just complete the lineup to play a game. Might as well play the one from the west! BOL.
 
redbearde said:
fade the Celtics...?

:seeya:
Click to expand...
In reality..look at Bostons run..other than Kg being on a mission in the DET game thre has been nothing impressive going on....well..they are taking care of business but haven't really played anything of substance....

I gotta grab a nap...but I'll break it down more a little later.
 
Philly banks off of turnovers. Celtics don't tend to turn it over.
Philly has a tough time with offensive sets in the halfcourt. Celtics defend halfcourt better than anyone.

...Philly may cover, but I would be shocked to see them win.
 
Do you guys have any record on philly b2b? I know they're good if they lose the 1st game but what's their record if they won the front end of the b2b?
 
Sactown King said:
Do you guys have any record on philly b2b? I know they're good if they lose the 1st game but what's their record if they won the front end of the b2b?
Click to expand...


I wouldnt concern myself with Philly winning the front end yesterday because they won a game they were supposed to win. Meaning they were favored and won. If they had won as 6 or 8 pt dogs then I would be cautious. It's much more unlikely to "upset" tems in B2B sitations IMO..

Sixers have won 8 straight at home and 9 of 10 falling to Orlando by 2. Boston has won 3 straight away BUT do Memphis and LAC count? The other was Portland which they were trailing until Roy got hurt and left.

Both prior meetings when Philly was not quite playing so well the Sixers lead at half 57-52 and 59-52 ( double check the scores but 5 and 7 should be correct)- at the time Philly was a good 1st H team but typically faded in the 2nd H.

:shake:
 
SportsNut said:
I wouldnt concern myself with Philly winning the front end yesterday because they won a game they were supposed to win. Meaning they were favored and won. If they had won as 6 or 8 pt dogs then I would be cautious. It's much more unlikely to "upset" tems in B2B sitations IMO..

Sixers have won 8 straight at home and 9 of 10 falling to Orlando by 2. Boston has won 3 straight away BUT do Memphis and LAC count? The other was Portland which they were trailing until Roy got hurt and left.

Both prior meetings when Philly was not quite playing so well the Sixers lead at half 57-52 and 59-52 ( double check the scores but 5 and 7 should be correct)- at the time Philly was a good 1st H team but typically faded in the 2nd H.

:shake:
Click to expand...

All thanks, Was looking up these exact thoughts and then saw your post..:smiley_acbe:
 
was leaning philly in the 1st half and the over in the 1st quarter. Sorry, off Red's thread, but GL with the Clips. I can't bring myself to wager on them ever again, for or against.
 
offtopic.gif


hahaha...
 
Both prior meetings when Philly was not quite playing so well the Sixers lead at half 57-52 and 59-52 ( double check the scores but 5 and 7 should be correct)- at the time Philly was a good 1st H team but typically faded in the 2nd H.


In both these games, andre miller, was tremendous vs Rondo, and philly pulled to good size 1st qtr leads. You might see similar tonight, but cassel has been activated and i wouldnt be surprised to see him in their sooner if miller takes advantage of his size again vs rondo. the celts play down to their competition but then they have these 4-5 minute spurts in their half court D that just shuts down the other team, lot of credit going to philly, well deserved, just dont think they have the talent to cover the 5.5.
 
TheCashMan said:
Both prior meetings when Philly was not quite playing so well the Sixers lead at half 57-52 and 59-52 ( double check the scores but 5 and 7 should be correct)- at the time Philly was a good 1st H team but typically faded in the 2nd H.


In both these games, andre miller, was tremendous vs Rondo, and philly pulled to good size 1st qtr leads. You might see similar tonight, but cassel has been activated and i wouldnt be surprised to see him in their sooner if miller takes advantage of his size again vs rondo. the celts play down to their competition but then they have these 4-5 minute spurts in their half court D that just shuts down the other team, lot of credit going to philly, well deserved, just dont think they have the talent to cover the 5.5.
Click to expand...

Cash this is a value play imho, Boston seriously rolling right now. This is a game they can and may lose SU. 6pts is alot, thought they game should have been a possession less.
 
Sixers are absolutely rolling right now...

12 of 15 overall I believe

something like 8 straight at home

and their record in the second game of back to backs is around 11-1 i believe since December...

that said, I'm going to the game tonight, and they're 0-5 on games Ive attended this year, so...
 
fucking hell that one was a ball buster.

redcon wins another. Can't say never in doubt...

but I'm glad I took the odds.

jumpy.gif
 
Talked me into the Clippers M. L.
Refused to give points.
Hope you had it!
Exciting Win!

:cheers:
 
I thought the game was pretty much 50/50 and when i went to bet the value was with the clueless heat.... so i took em at +133. One mans triumph is anothers disaster. Congrats on the W Red. :cheers:
 
sharpie said:
I thought the game was pretty much 50/50 and when i went to bet the value was with the clueless heat.... so i took em at +133. One mans triumph is anothers disaster. Congrats on the W Red. :cheers:
Click to expand...

yeah, but you recognize that you obviously took the right wager at the time, right?

Not sure I'd have had the balls for that one, but the Heat really did shoot some incredible runs of shots there in the 2H....
 
redbearde said:
yeah, but you recognize that you obviously took the right wager at the time, right?

Not sure I'd have had the balls for that one, but the Heat really did shoot some incredible runs of shots there in the 2H....
Click to expand...

absolutely. does it not take an equal amount of balls to back the clips laying points on the road? I've read many times that you like taking the plus $$ in a toss up game between 2 shit teams, as do i. doesn't matter what the name on the jersey is cause, to me, both of these teams should replace the name on the front with "shit". :crap_on_face:
 
totally agree. with the Heat so short-handed and damned near winning, the Clippers should definitely be replaced with the Shitters.
 
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