NBA Redcon 3.24

[redbearde]

Still considering...

mrs.redbearde has Detroit by about 8. and while sure, they've been playing without much passion recently, at home they've still been winning.

03/04/2008 vs Seattle W 100 - 97 L (-15½) O (193)
03/09/2008 vs Chicago W 116 - 109 L (-9) O (194)
03/12/2008 vs Philadelphia L 83 - 82 L (-8) U (191)
03/14/2008 vs San Antonio W 84 - 80 W (-3) U (174½)
03/16/2008 vs New Orleans W 105 - 84 W (-6) O (186)
03/18/2008 vs Denver W 136 - 120 W (-4½) O (212½)
03/24/2008 vs Phoenix

This is this month at home. They've been getting by, against even mediocre teams, but they have been winning. It's really been the road where they haven't given a fuck.

I don't want to lay chalk in this game, but if I can get the Pistons as a pickem, I may well do that. We'll need a big night out of the Pistons' bench, and it should be nice for the starters to have a good night, too. But their length should give the Suns fits. I don't know how well the Stones will be able to deal with Shaq, but if any team in the East can, it's either Boston or Detroit...especially at home.

mrs.redbearde has the pistons as an 8.5pt fave, btw...I do think -2 is worthwhile....but I really want the pk. These pistons just shave too fucking often. They don't usually shave themselves into a SU loss, but a missed cover? ....all the time.

Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
Suns are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Suns are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 Monday games.
Suns are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Phoenix is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Phoenix is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Detroit
Phoenix is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

Pistons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Pistons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.

Phoenix is the second highest scoring team in the league at 110.2 points per game.
Phoenix leads the league in field goal percentage with 49.9.

Detroit has the second stingiest defense in the league at 90.8 points per game.
Detroit allows the third least field goal percentage against in the league at 44.0.
Detroit is second in three points made allowed in the league with 5.1 per game.
Detroit is third in rebounds allowed in the league at 39.3.

 

[c.r.e.a.m.]

gl whatever you play red!!!

 

[redbearde]

:cheers:

 

[~Utah]

Red, no play on the lakers? Im worried this might be a trap play

 

[EHS49]

INJURY update:

watson and wilcox questionable for sonics.

udrih and miller are playing tonight vs houston. artest is out.

dalembert will play with strained shoulder.

raja bell is cleared to play.

 

[redbearde]

last night the Warriors scored 115 on them by shooting 42.7%.
Lakers out-rebounded them 60 to 43.
Lakers had 18 turnovers - hell, just a couple fewer and the Lakers win.

but at no point were the lakers in any danger of covering....

I know I know....home and homes don't get swept [much], and both teams will obviously be motivated - GSW doesn't want to fall out of the playoffs, and the Lakers want to win the West. But...

GSW tends to play better at home.
Pau is still not playing.
GSW matches up well with the Lakers sans Gasol.

....lemme put it this way.

Remember how the lakers were playing BEFORE acquiring Pau Gasol?

Here's a reminder:

01/14/2008 at Seattle W 123 - 121 L (-5) O (208½)
01/17/2008 vs Phoenix L 106 - 98 L (1½) U (226½)
01/21/2008 vs Denver W 116 - 99 W (-3) U (226)
01/23/2008 at San Antonio L 103 - 91 L (8½) U (196)
01/25/2008 at Dallas L 112 - 105 P (7) O (205½)
01/27/2008 vs Cleveland L 98 - 95 L (-4) U (203)
01/29/2008 vs New York W 120 - 109 W (-9½) O (207½)
01/31/2008 at Detroit L 90 - 89 W (8½) U (197)

Then they got Pau and morale skyrocketed and they played a LOT better.

but back then...without Pau Gasol....would you have wanted to lay chalk on the road with the Lakers against one of the top 8 in the West?

....I don't. might be a trap play - I don't know about that. But I don't like laying that chalk there, that's for sure.

 

[redbearde]

INJURY update:

watson and wilcox questionable for sonics.

udrih and miller are playing tonight vs houston. artest is out.

dalembert will play with strained shoulder.

raja bell is cleared to play.

thread here.

 

[EHS49]

lol thanks red. i knew you had it somewhere. ===> idiot.

 

[redbearde]

no prob bro. I appreciate the info.

 

[SteveMoneydog]

yesterday kobe played nearly 10 minutes more than his season average and i wouldn't be surprised if the game is close for 3 quarters and then the warriors manage to win it in the 4th. i like the warriors ml against a teams that seems to be pretty inconsistent since the injury of gasol.

i don't think it's something like a trap game. the only so-called trap game might be mem-den. any thoughts on grizzlies ml, redbearde?

 

[redbearde]

my only thought there is that Denver sucks on the road and Memphis sucks anywhere.

tough to know who sucks more tonight.....

 

[divol]

I personally like Sixers lead at HT with great odds. Red, thought about this one?

 

[SportsNut]

my only thought there is that Denver sucks on the road and Memphis sucks anywhere.

tough to know who sucks more tonight.....

Feel like I am stalking ya today but your threads seem to be the best.

Nuggets playing 5th in 7 . Have to travel from Toronto to Memphis would think that sucks especially with a trip to Denver afterwards. Yesterday DEN did show me they wanted it more and rallied back after a tough 1st Q which they trailed by 12,13 points which was still 9 at half. They havent had the greatest success @ memphis and snuck by them right around teh time of the GAsol deal. My biggest concern with DEN is a star laden team being able to will themselves to win in the playoff hunt.

With that said thats about the only plus I see for DEN. Memphis got a couple days off recently probably some practice team and also Milcic and Miller come back from injuries. After Yag and Conley had battled them. You look at this roster and it has talent galore . I am not certain but Conely , Miller , Warrick , Yag and Milcic I think were Top 5 picks except Warrick 19th overall. There bench consists of young 1st rounders(around #20s) as well Lowry , Crittenton and Jason Collins. With super sub Navarro coming over from Europe. Oh and that Kwame Brown guy is a bust and former #1 overall pick. Plus more then gald to see hardworkin Brain Cardinal grab a few quality minutes.

They are the perfect team to look at late in the year because maybe there talent is actually turning into something? Warrick never seem sto get afair shake and usually seems to play well when given extended minutes , Milcic shows glimpses , Yag is growing game by game, Conley is a rookie who lost time to injury , and Miller is gotta be the glue. So Memphis is the type of team because they played so poorly all season really more for a long stretch as they didnt start that badly who has now put together 5 straight great efforts @ GSW lose by 3 , win vs Charlotte , Lead @ Minny by 12 at half before losing , win @ NY up 20 a half , and win vs Sca up DDs at half as well.

So coupled with the poor situational spot for Denver I think Memphis looks real attractive here. They have won 3 of 4 at home only osing badly to teh celts beating Sac , Charlotte and NJN. Previous ly they had good efforts but terrible stretches late vs Utah and PHO triling by just a few before it became DDs last 7 minutes of the game.....

To me MEMPHIS is dangerous....:cheers:

 

[SteveMoneydog]

my only thought there is that Denver sucks on the road and Memphis sucks anywhere.

tough to know who sucks more tonight.....

i understand, but as sportsnut said memphis has been playing better and covering in their last 5 games. they will be rested tonight and as you said denver has struggled on the road this season. mem +8.5 looks pretty good.
if the ml gets higher than 4.50 i will give it a try, too.

 

[redbearde]

you guys are trying to sell memphis vs a team trying to get into the playoffs.

I don't like it.

GL with it of you take it.

:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

Sort of . Trying to sell a team who has won 3 of 5 , 3 straight at home and covered 5 straight vs a defense who doesnt play defense as you have often mentioned...

For you take a ML play on them I understand is very tough and woud not try to persuade you. I'll take 9 points and if applicable some more at halftime if they are getting smoked...

BOL:cheers:

 

[redbearde]

Yeah, I first-look at things through the ML glasses, so, yeah, it would be very tough. Hell, I don't think Memphis plays any more defense than Denver, so that's a wash in my mind. Could they cover? Sure. But it's really not all that common for a dog to cover and not win.....at least that's been my observation.

I see now this line is up to 8.5 to 9.

It's been at 6.5, then 7.5.....so I was thinking about it from those terms. If it gets to DDs, maybe I start thinking about points......but the diff between a 3pt Denver win an 8pt denver win is really not much.

GL with whatever you take. Lookin like a day off for me unless I get suckered into playing a 2H wager.

:shake:

 

[sharpie]

Yeah, I first-look at things through the ML glasses, so, yeah, it would be very tough. Hell, I don't think Memphis plays any more defense than Denver, so that's a wash in my mind. Could they cover? Sure. But it's really not all that common for a dog to cover and not win.....at least that's been my observation.

I see now this line is up to 8.5 to 9.

It's been at 6.5, then 7.5.....so I was thinking about it from those terms. If it gets to DDs, maybe I start thinking about points......but the diff between a 3pt Denver win an 8pt denver win is really not much.

GL with whatever you take. Lookin like a day off for me unless I get suckered into playing a 2H wager.

:shake:

very tough to sucker a seasoned vet. good job stickin with your gut here red :cheers:

 

[redbearde]

I assure you. It's real easy to sucker me in when I'm pissed off....

rather like right now.

 

[redbearde]

Lakers 2H -5 (+103.88)

see?

I'm a sucker.

now go hit the Warriors. All of you. I suck at 2H bets.

 

[EHS49]

i hit lakers -5.

 

[redbearde]

nice win for us, bro.

G'night gentlemen.

 

[spockgato]

sharp .

 

[BigLion]

Agree with everything u have to say abt the spurs/magic.........

..........I shud have copyrighted "redcon" before saying it ......... just j/k....

Thanx and GL to u and the mrs

 

[BigLion]

Wrong thread