NBA Plays (Opening Week)...

emkee

emkee

The Truth Is Out There
2014/15: 94-69-1 (+33.80)

2015/16: 106-87-2 (+33.47)

2016/17: 111-81 (+57.74)

2017/18: 107-99 (-2.07)

Worst season on wax for me last time out.

Was a weird old season either way. Moving on.

Will run this thread today through to Sunday.

Not much to go on the first few games other than riding the talent and some motivational angles.

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics

The play...

76ers +5 (2 units)

Big game for the Philly psyche after getting murked by the C's 'back-ups' in the recent playoffs.

I'm thinking the C's come out a little flat the first few games,

Have seen it in other pro sports when a team goes far in the postseason with it's stars out. The next season there's a drop in intensity to start.

Don't hate me if I buy points in the Dubs game a bit later.

:shake:
 
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Good luck emkee! Great to see you back in the saddle. I think the Jazz might have become reliable enough to bet on this season...
 
Good luck, em! Won’t be going against Bahston all season. I expect A LOT of wins 60+ for sure. Along with the best coach in NBA, there’s no need to ever go against that machine
 
0-1 (-2.06)

Brett Brown sucks.

adding...

Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets

The play...

Bucks ML -131 (3 to win 2.27)

:popcorn:
 
Thoughts a little later.

Will probably get involved in the late West Coast games as well.
 
Will generally always play the ML than lay 3 points or less given the 'nature' of the league and Stern's ghost, especially on the road.

Bucks with a half decent coach now should show that potential they've failed to achieve under Kidd and that more recent dumbass who does not deserve to get mentioned.

The Freak has been working out with Kobe, Brogdon is healthy, Middleton is coming into his own and Bledsloe is in his first full season.

'New Arena' angle as well for this squad.

Hornets are a team in league purgatory, not quite good enough or bad enough.

New coach will help, Clifford held this team back with his shitty approach.

Best thing for this team would be to tank and secure a high pick but given MJ is the boss I don't see it happening.

So another season of fighting for the 8th seed, 9th or 10 seed.

Giannis's squad has been one of the best as road chalk over the past 5 seasons going 29-7 SU (24-12 ATS). 11-3 SU and ATS last season.

Charlotte on the other hand has been one of the worst home dogs over the past 4.5 seasons going 8-37 SU (10-32-3 ATS). 1-10 SU and ATS last season.

High consensus on the Bucks which is a concern but it's too early in the season to be too worried about that shit.
 
On last nights games...

C's already winning the East according to most after one game vs a very unprepared Sixers team (F U Brett Brown).

Not buying stock yet, we all know Kyrie is gonna go down at some point and there will be friction within the camp soon enough.

Very good team but I've still got Sixers v Bucks in the ECF's as of right now ;)

Embiid just gotta tone down the trash talk.

Out West, Dubs doing what they do - playing uninspired turnover basketball, treating the game like it was a pick-up game at the Y.

Arrogance is a thing with this team but they've earned the right to do so. Still the best team in the league by a decent margin.

Dray continues to drink his own juice and Klay was still in China. Expected it and why they didn't take my money last night.

They'll win more games this season than last but the spreads are always gonna be iffy, the back-end of their bench is a ugly as hell.

Really gotta pick your spots with this squad when you wanna lay the inflated number.
 
Bucks win by 1, go figure.

Reason it was close = turnovers. 21 of them for Milwaukee leading to 22 Charlotte points.

Hope you played the ML, Pip.
 
Thanks fellas.

Great call, lucky call. Would have been a shitty loss to stomach with Bucks being up 10 after 3 quarters.

The right side won SU either way. Damn shame about the spread though.
 
Yep, LeShaves and his spread manipulation a thing of the past in Cleveland.

Taken those talents to Hollywood.
 
1-1 (+0.21)

adding...

Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers

The play...

76ers -11 (2 units)

Thoughts a little later.

:popcorn:
 
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Embiid actually told the truth after the game saying Boston owns them. 15 out of 17 now. Nice hit on the Bucks. Easy money on the Pelicans and Suns last night for me.
 
Yeah, Philly being called overrated and dragged through the mud after one game vs one of the most elite rosters and best coached teams in the league.

Okay then. 81 games to go...
 
My line based on projected line-up output is Sixers -12.5, ELO has Sixers -12.

Nice rebound spot off an ugly game vs a team playing for draft positioning.

Brett Brown up against at the very least an equal coaching mind in 'The Mayor' Fred Hoiberg, so there's that.
 
Ryno14 said:
GL, Em. Any thoughts you have on the Lakeshow at Portland tonight would be great too.
Click to expand...

Blazers or nothing here.

ML only -150 or less, may bite.

My line for this game is Blazers -2.5, ELO has Blazers -5.5...
 
Ryno14 said:
Thanks, Em.
Click to expand...

Blazers have won 7 straight home openers. LeCramps 0-5 SU in his last 5 trips to Portland.

Lakers a major work in progress, Cramps could get away with carrying a team in the East not out here in the West.

The always reliable ELO predicting a sub .500 season for the Purp n' Gold.
 
nikefan23 said:
emkee, what site do you pull your ELO from?
Click to expand...

Use my own hybrid/variant.

Many decent sites on the net have the pure ELO ratings which is basically just wins and losses over time.

538 probably the easiest site to pull it from.
 
2-1 (+2.21)

Friday...

Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic

The play...

Hornets ML -123 (2.46 to win 2)

Thoughts later on.

Like a few more plays as well but gonna sit on the spreads for awhile and see where they go.

:popcorn:
 
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My line on this game is a pick 'em, ELO has Hornets -1.

Hornets choppy, 'switchy' defense should be able to contain this rebuilding Magic team that is gonna have offensive issues all season.

There won't be the barrage of 3's they suffered when they played the Bucks.

Kemba should feast vs that backcourt as well. Hopefully Monk and Bridges get more minutes than those overpaid vets Batum and Marv.

Batum gets 24 milly, that's insane.

'Revenge' game against Steve Clifford for being a shitty coach all those years in Charlotte.

Orlando defense was good last game but that was vs a banged-up Meat squad.

Looking at the late game in the Mormon capital.
 
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Lean Raps but not gonna go against Boston with a team trying to incorporate some new pieces.

C's a pretty significant popular dog which is usually a recipe for disaster.

My line for the game is Raps -3.5, so pretty much agree with Vegas here.
 
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